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Furniss TJ, Hessburg PF, Povak NA, Salter RB, Wigmosta MS. Predicting future patterns, processes, and their interactions: Benchmark calibration and validation procedures for forest landscape models. Ecol Modell 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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2
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Influence of Local Climate and ENSO on the Growth of Cedrela odorata L. in Suriname. ATMOSPHERE 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos13071119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
In this study, we used retrospective dendroclimatological analyses to explore whether El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local precipitation patterns have an influence on tree growth in Suriname, a country located on the Guiana Shield, as annual precipitation patterns on the Guiana Shield are related to ENSO. Discs were taken from 20 trees of Cedrela odorata, whose stem forms very distinct annual growth rings, for tree ring analyses. The trees grew in unmanaged tropical wet forests of Suriname. The tree-ring series of individual trees started between 1836 and 1931 and extended over a period of 84–180 years. The 20 dated series were utilized for constructing a tree-ring chronology. Unlike many other studies that used local anomalies such as flood pulse, precipitation, and drought events to describe the influence of El Niño on tree growth, we used monthly precipitation and ENSO indices as predictors of tree growth to calculate response and correlation functions. The study observed that tree ring growth of Cedrela odorata is influenced by precipitation in August and June of the current year and in August of the previous year, as well as by the ENSO indices SSTA, TSA, TNA, and NAO. Systematic increases in the strength of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection due to climate change could affect the growth of trees on the Guiana Shield.
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Swayze NC, Tinkham WT. Application of Unmanned Aerial System Structure from Motion Point Cloud Detected Tree Heights and stem diameters to model missing stem diameters. MethodsX 2022; 9:101729. [PMID: 35664041 PMCID: PMC9157555 DOI: 10.1016/j.mex.2022.101729] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2021] [Accepted: 05/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
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4
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Tree Mortality may Drive Landscape Formation: Comparative Study from Ten Temperate Forests. Ecosystems 2022. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-022-00755-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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Furniss TJ, Das AJ, van Mantgem PJ, Stephenson NL, Lutz JA. Crowding, climate, and the case for social distancing among trees. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2022; 32:e2507. [PMID: 34870871 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2507] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2021] [Revised: 06/25/2021] [Accepted: 07/30/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
In an emerging era of megadisturbance, bolstering forest resilience to wildfire, insects, and drought has become a central objective in many western forests. Climate has received considerable attention as a driver of these disturbances, but few studies have examined the complexities of climate-vegetation-disturbance interactions. Current strategies for creating resilient forests often rely on retrospective approaches, seeking to impart resilience by restoring historical conditions to contemporary landscapes, but historical conditions are becoming increasingly unattainable amidst modern bioclimatic conditions. What becomes an appropriate benchmark for resilience when we have novel forests, rapidly changing climate, and unprecedented disturbance regimes? We combined two longitudinal datasets-each representing some of the most comprehensive spatially explicit, annual tree mortality data in existence-in a post-hoc factorial design to examine the nonlinear relationships between fire, climate, forest spatial structure, and bark beetles. We found that while prefire drought elevated mortality risk, advantageous local neighborhoods could offset these effects. Surprisingly, mortality risk (Pm ) was higher in crowded local neighborhoods that burned in wet years (Pm = 42%) compared with sparse neighborhoods that burned during drought (Pm = 30%). Risk of beetle attack was also increased by drought, but lower conspecific crowding impeded the otherwise positive interaction between fire and beetle attack. Antecedent fire increased drought-related mortality over short timespans (<7 years) but reduced mortality over longer intervals. These results clarify interacting disturbance dynamics and provide a mechanistic underpinning for forest restoration strategies. Importantly, they demonstrate the potential for managed fire and silvicultural strategies to offset climate effects and bolster resilience to fire, beetles, and drought.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tucker J Furniss
- Wildland Resources Department and Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA
- USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Wenatchee, Washington, USA
| | - Adrian J Das
- U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Three Rivers, California, USA
| | | | - Nathan L Stephenson
- U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Three Rivers, California, USA
| | - James A Lutz
- Wildland Resources Department and Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA
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Germain SJ, Lutz JA. Climate warming may weaken stabilizing mechanisms in old forests. ECOL MONOGR 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1508] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Sara J. Germain
- Department of Wildland Resources Utah State University Logan Utah USA
| | - James A. Lutz
- Department of Wildland Resources Utah State University Logan Utah USA
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Germain SJ, Lutz JA. Shared friends counterbalance shared enemies in old forests. Ecology 2021; 102:e03495. [PMID: 34309021 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3495] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2021] [Revised: 05/17/2021] [Accepted: 05/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Mycorrhizal mutualisms are nearly ubiquitous across plant communities. Yet, it is still unknown whether facilitation among plants arises primarily from these mycorrhizal networks or from physical and ecological attributes of plants themselves. Here, we tested the relative contributions of mycorrhizae and plants to both positive and negative biotic interactions to determine whether plant-soil feedbacks with mycorrhizae neutralize competition and enemies within multitrophic forest community networks. We used Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear modeling to examine mycorrhizal-guild-specific and mortality-cause-specific woody plant survival compiled from a spatially and temporally explicit data set comprising 101,096 woody plants from three mixed-conifer forests across western North America. We found positive plant-soil feedbacks for large-diameter trees: species-rich woody plant communities indirectly promoted large tree survival when connected via mycorrhizal networks. Shared mycorrhizae primarily counterbalanced apparent competition mediated by tree enemies (e.g., bark beetles, soil pathogens) rather than diffuse competition between plants. We did not find the same survival benefits for small trees or shrubs. Our findings suggest that lower large-diameter tree mortality susceptibility in species-rich temperate forests resulted from greater access to shared mycorrhizal networks. The interrelated importance of aboveground and belowground biodiversity to large tree survival may be critical for counteracting increasing pathogen, bark beetle, and density threats.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara J Germain
- Department of Wildland Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 84322-5230, USA
| | - James A Lutz
- Department of Wildland Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 84322-5230, USA
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Balantic C, Adams A, Gross S, Mazur R, Sawyer S, Tucker J, Vernon M, Mengelt C, Morales J, Thorne JH, Brown TM, Athearn N, Morelli TL. Toward climate change refugia conservation at an ecoregion scale. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.497] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Cathleen Balantic
- Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, Department of Environmental Conservation University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst Massachusetts USA
| | - Andrea Adams
- Earth Research Institute University of California Santa Barbara Santa Barbara California USA
| | - Shana Gross
- Ecology Program USDA Forest Service, Region 5 South Lake Tahoe California USA
| | - Rachel Mazur
- Division of Resources Management and Science Yosemite National Park El Portal California USA
| | - Sarah Sawyer
- USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Region Vallejo California USA
| | - Jody Tucker
- USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Region Vallejo California USA
| | - Marian Vernon
- Point Blue Conservation Science Petaluma California USA
| | - Claudia Mengelt
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Science Applications Sacramento California USA
| | - Jennifer Morales
- Climate Change Program California Department of Water Resources Fresno California USA
| | - James H. Thorne
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy University of California Davis California USA
| | - Timothy M. Brown
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of California Santa Cruz California USA
| | - Nicole Athearn
- Division of Resources Management and Science National Park Service El Portal California USA
| | - Toni Lyn Morelli
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, Department of Environmental Conservation University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst Massachusetts USA
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9
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Furniss TJ, Larson AJ, Kane VR, Lutz JA. Wildfire and drought moderate the spatial elements of tree mortality. Ecosphere 2020. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3214] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Tucker J. Furniss
- Wildland Resources Department and Ecology Center Utah State University Logan Utah84322USA
| | - Andrew J. Larson
- Wilderness Institute and Department of Forest Management University of Montana Missoula Montana59812USA
| | - Van R. Kane
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington98195USA
| | - James A. Lutz
- Wildland Resources Department and Ecology Center Utah State University Logan Utah84322USA
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Mensah S, Salako VK, Seifert T. Structural complexity and large‐sized trees explain shifting species richness and carbon relationship across vegetation types. Funct Ecol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13585] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Sylvanus Mensah
- Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d’Estimations Forestières Université d’Abomey Calavi Cotonou Benin
| | - Valère K. Salako
- Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d’Estimations Forestières Université d’Abomey Calavi Cotonou Benin
- Service d’Évolution Biologique et Écologie Université Libre de Bruxelles Brussels Belgium
| | - Thomas Seifert
- Chair of Forest Growth Albert‐Ludwigs‐Universität Freiburg Freiburg im Breisgau Germany
- Department of Forest and Wood Science Stellenbosch University Stellenbosch South Africa
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11
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Density-dependent processes fluctuate over 50 years in an ecotone forest. Oecologia 2019; 191:909-918. [DOI: 10.1007/s00442-019-04534-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2019] [Accepted: 10/10/2019] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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12
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Birch JD, Lutz JA, Hogg EH, Simard SW, Pelletier R, LaRoi GH, Karst J. Decline of an ecotone forest: 50 years of demography in the southern boreal forest. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2698] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Joseph D. Birch
- Department of Renewable Resources University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - James A. Lutz
- Department of Wildland Resources Utah State University Utah USA
| | - E. H. Hogg
- Forestry Centre Canadian Forest Service Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - Suzanne W. Simard
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
| | - Rick Pelletier
- Department of Renewable Resources University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | | | - Justine Karst
- Department of Renewable Resources University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
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Meddens AJH, Kolden CA, Lutz JA, Smith AMS, Cansler CA, Abatzoglou JT, Meigs GW, Downing WM, Krawchuk MA. Fire Refugia: What Are They, and Why Do They Matter for Global Change? Bioscience 2018. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biy103] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Crystal A Kolden
- College of Natural Resources at the University of Idaho, in Moscow
| | - James A Lutz
- Utah State University's Wildland Resources Department, in Logan, Utah
| | | | - C Alina Cansler
- The Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program, part of the USDA Forest Service, in Missoula, Montana
| | | | - Garrett W Meigs
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society in the College of Forestry at Oregon State University, in Corvallis
| | - William M Downing
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society in the College of Forestry at Oregon State University, in Corvallis
| | - Meg A Krawchuk
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society in the College of Forestry at Oregon State University, in Corvallis
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Hülsmann L, Bugmann H, Cailleret M, Brang P. How to kill a tree: empirical mortality models for 18 species and their performance in a dynamic forest model. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2018; 28:522-540. [PMID: 29266516 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1668] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2017] [Revised: 08/08/2017] [Accepted: 10/19/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) are designed to be suitable for simulating forest succession and species range dynamics under current and future conditions based on mathematical representations of the three key processes regeneration, growth, and mortality. However, mortality formulations in DVMs are typically coarse and often lack an empirical basis, which increases the uncertainty of projections of future forest dynamics and hinders their use for developing adaptation strategies to climate change. Thus, sound tree mortality models are highly needed. We developed parsimonious, species-specific mortality models for 18 European tree species using >90,000 records from inventories in Swiss and German strict forest reserves along a considerable environmental gradient. We comprehensively evaluated model performance and incorporated the new mortality functions in the dynamic forest model ForClim. Tree mortality was successfully predicted by tree size and growth. Only a few species required additional covariates in their final model to consider aspects of stand structure or climate. The relationships between mortality and its predictors reflect the indirect influences of resource availability and tree vitality, which are further shaped by species-specific attributes such as maximum longevity and shade tolerance. Considering that the behavior of the models was biologically meaningful, and that their performance was reasonably high and not impacted by changes in the sampling design, we suggest that the mortality algorithms developed here are suitable for implementation and evaluation in DVMs. In the DVM ForClim, the new mortality functions resulted in simulations of stand basal area and species composition that were generally close to historical observations. However, ForClim performance was poorer than when using the original, coarse mortality formulation. The difficulties of simulating stand structure and species composition, which were most evident for Fagus sylvatica L. and in long-term simulations, resulted from feedbacks between simulated growth and mortality as well as from extrapolation to very small and very large trees. Growth and mortality processes and their species-specific differences should thus be revisited jointly, with a particular focus on small and very large trees in relation to their shade tolerance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lisa Hülsmann
- Forest Resources and Management, WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092, Zürich, Switzerland
- Theoretical Ecology, University of Regensburg, Universitätsstraße 31, 93053, Regensburg, Germany
| | - Harald Bugmann
- Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Maxime Cailleret
- Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092, Zürich, Switzerland
- Forest Dynamics, WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Peter Brang
- Forest Resources and Management, WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
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15
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Wieczorek M, Kruse S, Epp LS, Kolmogorov A, Nikolaev AN, Heinrich I, Jeltsch F, Pestryakova LA, Zibulski R, Herzschuh U. Dissimilar responses of larch stands in northern Siberia to increasing temperatures-a field and simulation based study. Ecology 2017; 98:2343-2355. [PMID: 28475233 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1887] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2016] [Revised: 02/17/2017] [Accepted: 04/05/2017] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Arctic and alpine treelines worldwide differ in their reactions to climate change. A northward advance of or densification within the treeline ecotone will likely influence climate-vegetation feedback mechanisms. In our study, which was conducted in the Taimyr Depression in the North Siberian Lowlands, w present a combined field- and model-based approach helping us to better understand the population processes involved in the responses of the whole treeline ecotone, spanning from closed forest to single-tree tundra, to climate warming. Using information on stand structure, tree age, and seed quality and quantity from seven sites, we investigate effects of intra-specific competition and seed availability on the specific impact of recent climate warming on larch stands. Field data show that tree density is highest in the forest-tundra, and average tree size decreases from closed forest to single-tree tundra. Age-structure analyses indicate that the trees in the closed forest and forest-tundra have been present for at least ~240 yr. At all sites except the most southerly ones, past establishment is positively correlated with regional temperature increase. In the single-tree tundra, however, a change in growth form from krummholz to erect trees, beginning ~130 yr ago, rather than establishment date has been recorded. Seed mass decreases from south to north, while seed quantity increases. Simulations with LAVESI (Larix Vegetation Simulator) further suggest that relative density changes strongly in response to a warming signal in the forest-tundra while intra-specific competition limits densification in the closed forest and seed limitation hinders densification in the single-tree tundra. We find striking differences in strength and timing of responses to recent climate warming. While forest-tundra stands recently densified, recruitment is almost non-existent at the southern and northern end of the ecotone due to autecological processes. Palaeo-treelines may therefore be inappropriate to infer past temperature changes at a fine scale. Moreover, a lagged treeline response to past warming will, via feedback mechanisms, influence climate change in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mareike Wieczorek
- Periglacial Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany.,Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14476, Germany
| | - Stefan Kruse
- Periglacial Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany.,Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14476, Germany
| | - Laura S Epp
- Periglacial Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
| | - Alexei Kolmogorov
- Institute of Natural Sciences, North-Eastern Federal University of Yakutsk, Yakutsk, 677000, Russia
| | - Anatoly N Nikolaev
- Institute of Natural Sciences, North-Eastern Federal University of Yakutsk, Yakutsk, 677000, Russia.,Melnikov Institute of Permafrost SB RAS, Yakutsk, 677000, Russia
| | - Ingo Heinrich
- GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
| | - Florian Jeltsch
- Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14467, Germany.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, D-14195, Germany.,ZALF, Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Eberswalder Str. 84, Müncheberg, D-15374, Germany
| | - Lyudmila A Pestryakova
- Institute of Natural Sciences, North-Eastern Federal University of Yakutsk, Yakutsk, 677000, Russia
| | - Romy Zibulski
- Periglacial Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
| | - Ulrike Herzschuh
- Periglacial Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany.,Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14476, Germany
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16
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Furniss TJ, Larson AJ, Lutz JA. Reconciling niches and neutrality in a subalpine temperate forest. Ecosphere 2017. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1847] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Tucker J. Furniss
- Wildland Resources Department Utah State University 5230 Old Main Hill Logan Utah 84322 USA
| | - Andrew J. Larson
- Department of Forest Management University of Montana Missoula Montana 59812 USA
| | - James A. Lutz
- Wildland Resources Department Utah State University 5230 Old Main Hill Logan Utah 84322 USA
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17
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Fire and the Distribution and Uncertainty of Carbon Sequestered as Aboveground Tree Biomass in Yosemite and Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks. LAND 2017. [DOI: 10.3390/land6010010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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18
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Gonzalez‐Akre E, Meakem V, Eng C, Tepley AJ, Bourg NA, McShea W, Davies SJ, Anderson‐Teixeira K. Patterns of tree mortality in a temperate deciduous forest derived from a large forest dynamics plot. Ecosphere 2016. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1595] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Erika Gonzalez‐Akre
- Conservation Ecology Center Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute Front Royal Virginia 22630 USA
| | - Victoria Meakem
- Conservation Ecology Center Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute Front Royal Virginia 22630 USA
| | - Cheng‐Yin Eng
- Conservation Ecology Center Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute Front Royal Virginia 22630 USA
| | - Alan J. Tepley
- Conservation Ecology Center Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute Front Royal Virginia 22630 USA
| | - Norman A. Bourg
- U.S. Geological Survey National Research Program – Eastern Branch Reston Virginia 20192 USA
| | - William McShea
- Conservation Ecology Center Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute Front Royal Virginia 22630 USA
| | - Stuart J. Davies
- Center for Tropical Forest Science Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Panama City 9100 Panama
- Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History Washington D.C. 20013 USA
| | - Kristina Anderson‐Teixeira
- Conservation Ecology Center Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute Front Royal Virginia 22630 USA
- Center for Tropical Forest Science Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Panama City 9100 Panama
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Hülsmann L, Bugmann HKM, Commarmot B, Meyer P, Zimmermann S, Brang P. Does one model fit all? Patterns of beech mortality in natural forests of three European regions. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2016; 26:2463-2477. [PMID: 27787924 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1388] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2016] [Revised: 05/13/2016] [Accepted: 05/24/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Large uncertainties characterize forest development under global climate change. Although recent studies have found widespread increased tree mortality, the patterns and processes associated with tree death remain poorly understood, thus restricting accurate mortality predictions. Yet, projections of future forest dynamics depend critically on robust mortality models, preferably based on empirical data rather than theoretical, not well-constrained assumptions. We developed parsimonious mortality models for individual beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees and evaluated their potential for incorporation in dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). We used inventory data from nearly 19,000 trees from unmanaged forests in Switzerland, Germany, and Ukraine, representing the largest dataset used to date for calibrating such models. Tree death was modelled as a function of size and growth, i.e., stem diameter (dbh) and relative basal area increment (relBAI), using generalized logistic regression accounting for unequal re-measurement intervals. To explain the spatial and temporal variability in mortality patterns, we considered a large set of environmental and stand characteristics. Validation with independent datasets was performed to assess model generality. Our results demonstrate strong variability in beech mortality that was independent of environmental or stand characteristics. Mortality patterns in Swiss and German strict forest reserves were dominated by competition processes as indicated by J-shaped mortality over tree size and growth. The Ukrainian primeval beech forest was additionally characterized by windthrow and a U-shaped size-mortality function. Unlike the mortality model based on Ukrainian data, the Swiss and German models achieved good discrimination and acceptable transferability when validated against each other. We thus recommend these two models to be incorporated and examined in DVMs. Their mortality predictions respond to climate change via tree growth, which is sufficient to capture the adverse effects of water availability and competition on the mortality probability of beech under current conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lisa Hülsmann
- Research Unit Forest Resources and Management, WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Harald K M Bugmann
- Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Brigitte Commarmot
- Research Unit Forest Resources and Management, WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Peter Meyer
- Sachgebiet Waldnaturschutz/Naturwald, Nordwestdeutsche Forstliche Versuchsanstalt NW-FVA, Grätzelstrasse 2, 37079, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Stephan Zimmermann
- Research Unit Forest Soils and Biogeochemistry, WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Peter Brang
- Research Unit Forest Resources and Management, WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
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