Male fertility in Greece: Trends and differentials by education level and employment status

Religion and ethnicity interaction as a predictor of male fertility in Nigeria: Evidence from a national representative sample

High fertility constitutes a challenge to men's health conditions in Nigeria, a low-income country. Religion and ethnicity are central to the current Male Fertility (MF) level in Nigeria. This study determined the relationship between Male Fertility (MF) and Religion Ethnic Interaction (REI) amidst other socio-demographic characteristics in Nigeria. Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data, 2018 was used. Men aged 15-59 years [n = 8,786] were sampled using a multi-stage approach. Fertility was measured by the number of Children Ever Born (CEB). REI was generated using the combination of religion and ethnic groups; Hausa/Fulani Muslim, Igbo Christian, Yoruba Christian, and Yoruba Muslim. However, Hausa/Fulani Christians and Igbo Muslims were excluded from this study because a few men in these categories were available in the original sample. Weighted data were analyzed using the Negative Binomial (NB) model (α0.05). The mean age and CEB of the men were 32.9±12.0 years and 3.18±4.4 respectively. The mean CEB among men aged 45-59 years was highest among Hausa/Fulani Muslims (x = 11.57±5.98), but least among Yoruba Christians (x = 4.44±2.67). About 33.4% of the Hausa/Fulani Muslims had had ≥5 children, while 13.7% were reported among the Yoruba Christian men (p<0.001). The fertility Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) was higher among Hausa/Fulani Muslims, but less among Igbo Christians, and Yoruba Christians than Yoruba Muslims. Restricting the analyzed data to only monogamous men revealed no significant differences in the fertility IRR of Yoruba Christians and Yoruba Muslims, but the fertility IRR was significantly higher among the Hausa/Fulani Muslims than Yoruba Muslims. A disparity exists in MF across the REI groups with the Hausa/Fulani Muslims being the major contributors to high MF. Therefore, bridging the gap in access to fertility control measures and programmes that might have resulted from religion and ethnic differences will reduce male fertility level in Nigeria.

Did COVID-19 enlarge spatial disparities in population dynamics? A comparative, multivariate approach for Italy

A short-term issue that has been occasionally investigated in the current literature is if (and, eventually, how) population dynamics (directly or indirectly) driven by COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to enlarge regional divides in specific demographic processes and dimensions. To verify this assumption, our study run an exploratory multivariate analysis of ten indicators representative of different demographic phenomena (fertility, mortality, nuptiality, internal and international migration) and the related population outcomes (natural balance, migration balance, total growth). We developed a descriptive analysis of the statistical distribution of the ten demographic indicators using eight metrics that assess formation (and consolidation) of spatial divides, controlling for shifts over time in both central tendency, dispersion, and distributional shape regimes. All indicators were made available over 20 years (2002-2021) at a relatively detailed spatial scale (107 NUTS-3 provinces) in Italy. COVID-19 pandemic exerted an impact on Italian population because of intrinsic (e.g. a particularly older population age structure compared with other advanced economies) and extrinsic (e.g. the early start of the pandemic spread compared with the neighboring European countries) factors. For such reasons, Italy may represent a sort of 'worst' demographic scenario for other countries affected by COVID-19 and the results of this empirical study can be informative when delineating policy measures (with both economic and social impact) able to mitigate the effect of pandemics on demographic balance and improve the adaptation capacity of local societies to future pandemic's crises.

Male Fertility and Internal Migration in Rural and Urban Sub-Saharan Africa

Subnational differences in male fertility within sub-Saharan African countries have not been explored, nor the differences in male fertility according to migration status been sufficiently probed. We study divergences in rural and urban male fertility and investigate the relationship between male fertility and migration across 30 sub-Saharan African countries. We employ 67 Demographic and Health Surveys to estimate completed cohort fertility among men aged 50-64 according to migration status. Overall, we find that urban male fertility has declined faster than rural male fertility, widening the gap between the sectors. Rural-urban migrant men have lower fertility than their rural non-migrant counterparts. Men migrating within the rural sector have similarly high fertility as rural non-migrants, while urban-urban migrant men have even lower fertility than non-migrant urban men. Using country-fixed effects models, we find that among men with at least secondary education, differences in completed cohort fertility by migration status are widest. When we consider the timing of migration in relation to the timing of the birth of the last child, we observe that migrant men are a select group, having around two children less than non-migrant rural men. There is also evidence of adaptation to destination, though to a lesser extent. Furthermore, migration within the rural sector does not seem to be disruptive to fathering. These results indicate that rural-to-urban migration has the potential to delay rural fertility decline, and that urban male fertility is likely to decline further, especially as the proportion of urban-to-urban migration increases.

Is the mortality-fertility nexus gendered? A research note on sex differences in the impact of sibling mortality on fertility preferences

Research guided by demographic transition theory has shown that exposure to mortality influences women's fertility preferences and behaviours. Despite the myriad contexts, methodological approaches, and linkages featured in past studies, they have shared a focus on women, leaving questions on the gendered salience of mortality exposures for adults' fertility-related outcomes unanswered. In this research note, we analyse data from three African countries with distinct fertility profiles (Nigeria, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) to examine associations between sibling mortality exposure and ideal family size among women, men, and couples. We also investigate the stability of these associations over time. The associations between adults' sibling mortality exposure and their own and their spouses' ideal family sizes vary across countries. However, the gendered nature of the results in every country and evidence of cross-spousal effects uniformly demonstrate the need to incorporate sex differences into the study of the mortality-fertility link.

In-Between ‘Smart’ Urban Growth and ‘Sluggish’ Rural Development? Reframing Population Dynamics in Greece, 1940–2019

Multifaceted demographic dynamics have shaped population growth in Mediterranean Europe, reflecting a metropolitan cycle from urbanization to re-urbanization. To assess the distinctive impact of economic downturns on population dynamics, the present study illustrates the results of an exploratory analysis that assesses urban expansion and rural decline at various temporal scales in Greece, a peripheral country in southeastern Europe. Statistical analysis based on multivariate exploratory techniques outlined the persistent increase of regional populations, evidencing the distinctive role of agglomeration/scale with urbanization and early suburbanization phases (1940–1980) and accessibility/amenities with late suburbanization and re-urbanization phases (1981–2019). Recession accompanied (and, in some way, consolidated) the decline of agglomeration economies, leading to counter-urbanization in some cases. As an indirect result of counter-urbanization, the population increased more rapidly in low-density coastal areas with moderate accessibility and tourism specialization. Consistently, settlement expansion has altered the persistent gap in central and peripheral locations. A polarized urban hierarchy centered on the capital city, Athens, was replaced with a more diffused growth of medium-sized cities and attractive rural locations, depicting a new development path for lagging countries in the European Union and other socioeconomic contexts worldwide.

Rapidity of Change in Population Age Structures: A Local Approach Based on Multiway Factor Analysis

In the light of complex adaptive system thinking, population age structures in Europe have increasingly reflected the interplay between ‘fast’ and ‘slow’ socioeconomic dynamics driven by natural population growth and migration. Assuming the importance of demographic dynamics shaping regional growth in recent times, a diachronic analysis of local-scale population age structures was developed for 156 districts of Greece between 1971 and 2011. By using appropriate indicators, the analysis was aimed at demonstrating how ‘fast’ and ‘slow’ transitions contribute to socioeconomic change in both urban and rural areas. A comprehensive analysis of change in population age structures between 1971 and 2011 allows identification of latent spatial structures as a result of population re-distribution from urban cores to broader rural regions. Following residential mobility, the empirical results of this study indicate (i) a late phase of urbanization (1971–1981) with population densification and settlement compactness, (i) a rapid suburbanization (1981–1991) consolidating distinctive demographic structures in urban and rural areas, (ii) a mild counter-urbanization (1991–2001) with moderate aging of suburban populations and (iii) a latent re-urbanization (2001–2011) reducing the suburban-urban divide in population age structures. Residential mobility contributed to a more balanced age structure during suburbanization and an increased demographic divide in the subsequent urban waves. A refined analysis of long-term population dynamics in metropolitan regions reflects spatial outcomes and latent aspects of demographic transitions shedding light on the debate over the future development of urban and rural societies in advanced economies.

Transition to first birth during the Great Recession: the case of Greece

Abstract

In this study, we examine the effects of the economic uncertainty of partners on the transition to first birth in Greece before and after the onset of the recent economic crisis. After selecting a sample of childless couples, we applied a random effects model to EU-SILC data for the period 2005–2013. Few studies have focused on the association between economic uncertainty and fertility in Greece considering characteristics of both partners. Even fewer studies have examined panel data in the context of the recent crisis. Our findings show that Greek couples in which both partners are employed, have a high income, or are highly educated are in a more favourable position to have a first child. During the Greek Great Recession, corresponding in our study to the period 2010–2013, the odds of having a first child decreased to half the odds in the 2005–2009 period. The recession period also modified the effect of couples’ characteristics on first childbearing. During the economic crisis, male breadwinner couples were particularly penalized in their transition to have a first child. Surprisingly, couples with at least one temporary worker, usually the woman, were encouraged to have their first child. Implications in terms of gender and social inequality are discussed in the concluding section, and selection processes at play are also discussed.

Keywords

Fertility, Economic uncertainty, Economic recession, Greece

Population Age Structure, Complex Socio-Demographic Systems and Resilience Potential: A Spatio-Temporal, Evenness-Based Approach

The present study illustrates an original approach grounded on entropy theory and complex system thinking with the aim to investigate changes over time and space in population structure by age in Italy, in light of socioeconomic resilience and post-crisis recovery potential. Assuming that population structure may reflect different levels of resilience to exogenous shocks, a Pielou J evenness index was calculated on census data made available every 10 years (1861–2011) with the aim to identify compositional homogeneity (or heterogeneity) in the age structure of the Italian population. Trends over time in the Pielou J evenness index were identified using descriptive statistics, comparison with ancillary demographic indicators and multivariate exploratory techniques including principal component analysis. The empirical results allowed the identification of multiple dimensions of demographic transition in Italy, distinguishing two phases, the former encompassing a relatively long time period between 1861 and 1936, and the latter covering a shorter period between 1936 and 2011. A spatially-explicit analysis of Pielou J evenness indices applied to the population age structure of each Italian municipality at the latest survey (2017) finally provided a comprehensive overview of the demographic characteristics likely influencing the resilience potential of local districts. The empirical evidence outlined the consolidation of a coastal–inland divide as a result of the complex linkage between demographic dynamics and local background contexts.

Demographic Transitions and Socioeconomic Development in Italy, 1862–2009: A Brief Overview

The present study investigates long-term population dynamics in Italy, 1862–2009, in light of Demographic Transitions (DTs). Under the assumption that DTs are multidimensional processes of change involving several aspects, including population structure and dynamics, an exploratory analysis was carried out in this study to verify temporal coherency of 15 indicators in Italy, identifying homogeneous time periods with distinct demographic characteristics. Indicators’ trends were identified using a multivariate statistical approach. The results of this study allow empirical testing of the assumption of temporal coherence between different aspects of a long-term DT, distinguishing distinctive population dynamics and the differential impact on population structure over two centuries. After a relatively long period of demographic stability, the time window encompassing the two World Wars—approximately between 1921 and 1951—was identified as a primary turning point of population dynamics in Italy; a second turning point was estimated at the beginning of the 1970s. These time intervals may represent conditions of dynamic equilibrium between demographic and socioeconomic contexts, highlighting latent system transitions. The study concludes by outlining the importance of a more effective integration of demographic transition theories into a broader sustainability framework, and implementing a diachronic analysis of political, economic, and social forces associated with population dynamics in both advanced economies and emerging countries.

Education, Other Socioeconomic Characteristics Across the Life Course, and Fertility Among Finnish Men

The level of education and other adult socioeconomic characteristics of men are known to associate with their fertility, but early-life socioeconomic characteristics may also be related. We studied how men’s adult and early-life socioeconomic characteristics are associated with their eventual fertility and whether the differences therein by educational level are explained or mediated by other socioeconomic characteristics. The data on men born in 1940–1950 (N = 37,082) were derived from the 1950 Finnish census, which is linked to later registers. Standard and sibling fixed-effects Poisson and logistic regression models were used. Education and other characteristics were positively associated with the number of children, largely stemming from a higher likelihood of a first birth among the more socioeconomically advantaged men. The educational gradient in the number of children was not explained by early socioeconomic or other characteristics shared by brothers, but occupational position and income in adulthood mediated approximately half of the association. Parity-specific differences existed: education and many other socioeconomic characteristics predicted the likelihood of a first birth more strongly than that of a second birth, and the mediating role of occupational position and income was also strongest for first births. Relatively small differences were found in the likelihood of a third birth. In men, education is positively associated with eventual fertility after controlling for early socioeconomic and other characteristics shared by brothers. Selective entry into fatherhood based on economic provider potential may contribute considerably to educational differentials in the number of children among men.