Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries: Decomposition using parity progression ratios

Scenarios of Delayed First Births and Associated Cohort Fertility Levels

Fertility rates among individuals in their 20s have fallen sharply across Europe over the past 50 years. The implications of delayed first births for fertility levels in modern family regimes remain little understood. Using microsimulation models of childbearing and partnership for the 1970-1979 birth cohorts in Italy, Great Britain, Sweden, and Norway, we implement fictive scenarios that reduce the risk of having a first child before age 30 and examine fertility recovery mechanisms for aggregate fertility indicators (the proportion of women with at least one, two, three, or four children; cohort completed fertility rate). Exposure to a first birth increases systematically in the ages following the simulated reduction in first-birth risks, leading to a structural recovery in childbearing that varies across countries according to their fertility and partnership regimes. Full recovery requires an increase in late first-birth risks, with greater increases in countries where late family formation is uncommon and average family sizes are larger: in scenarios where early fertility declines substantially (a linear decline from 50% at age 15 to 0% at age 30), first-birth risks above age 30 would have to increase by 54% in Great Britain, 40% in Norway and Sweden, and 20% in Italy to keep completed fertility constant.

The effect of gradually lifting the two-child policy on demographic changes in China

Low-fertility rate has been a common problem in many industrialized countries. To reverse the declining trend of new births, Chinese government gradually lifted its restrictions on the number of births per family, allowing for a household to have no more than two children. Little is known about the additional births or population increase contributed by the gradual relaxation of birth restrictions. To fill this gap, this quasi-experimental design study including data from 124 regions used the synthetic control method and controlled interrupted time series analysis to evaluate the differences in birth rates and rates of natural population increase between China and its synthetic control following implementation of the two-child policy from 2011 to 2020. A total of 123 regions were included in the control pool. Data collected during 1990-2010 were used to identify the synthetic China for each study outcome. The mean rate differences of birth rates and rates of natural increase between China and synthetic China after two-child policy implementation were 1.16 per 1000 population and 1.02 per 1000, respectively. These rate differences were distinguished from variation due to chance (one-sided pseudo-P-values: P for birth rates = 0.047, P for rates of natural increase = 0.020). However, there were statistically significant annual reductions in the pre-post trend of birth rates and rates of natural increase compared with those of controls of <0.340 per 1000 population per year [P = 0.007, 95% CI = (-0.584, -0.096)] and <0.274 per 1000 per year [P = 0.028, 95% CI = (-0.518, -0.031)]. The results suggested that lifting birth restrictions had a short-term effect on the increase in birth rates and rates of natural population increase. However, birth policy with lifting birth restrictions alone may not have sustained impact on population growth in the long run.

Union Instability and Fertility: An International Perspective

In this article, we analyse the relationship between union instability and cumulated fertility among ever-partnered women in several regions across Europe and the Americas with different patterns of demographic behaviour in terms of fertility levels, union instability and fertility across partnerships. We hypothesise that the relationship between union dissolution and fertility might be less negative in contexts where repartnering is more prevalent. The analysis is performed on a large dataset of 25 countries, combining information from the Harmonised Histories of the Generation and Gender Programme with our own harmonisation of survey data from three Latin American countries. This allows for the inclusion of countries with differing prevalence of union instability as measured by (a) the proportion of women who separated by age 40, and (b) the proportion who repartnered by age 40. We first examine the prevalence of separation and repartnering during reproductive ages across regions, and we estimate the proportion of cumulated fertility attributable to unions of different ranks using a decomposition method. We then analyse the links between union instability and the number of children born by age 40 among ever-partnered and ever-repartnered women, using Poisson regression. Despite observing a high degree of heterogeneity in the proportions of births occurring in the context of repartnering both within and between regions, we find a pattern where a greater prevalence of repartnering by age 40 is accompanied by higher cumulated fertility in second or subsequent unions. Our multivariate findings reveal a negative statistical relationship between separation and cumulated fertility that is partially offset by repartnering in some contexts, and that the time spent in a union during the reproductive lifespan is a key determinant of cumulated fertility, regardless of national context and independently from age at union formation and union rank.

Partnership dynamics and entry into parenthood: Comparison of Finnish birth cohorts 1969-2000

During the past decade, the stability of close-to-replacement-level fertility ended in all Nordic countries, with its decline to the lowest level in Finland. It is unclear whether and how partnership dynamics have changed, and whether they play a role in fertility developments. We focus on the patterns and associations between the formation and stability of co-residential partnerships and first birth among Finnish women and men, and on whether and how these associations have changed across birth cohorts. We utilise total population register data on persons born between 1969 and 2000 in Finland, and adopt the event history method. Our results indicate that half of the women formed their first co-residential partnerships by the age of 22 years. Cohorts born in the early 1990s were the first to delay the formation of non-marital first partnerships. In contrast, first births are increasingly postponed, and the proportion of women and men, who become parents, has declined across recent cohorts. Among men, we observe higher median ages for family formation events and higher likelihoods of not forming a family. As a result of fertility decline and increase in partnership instability, for the first time, the probability of separation is higher than that of first births among partnered women born in the 1990s. Our findings show that at a behavioural level, the once close link between partnership formation and parenthood has progressively eroded across consecutive birth cohorts. Together with the ongoing tendency to delay first births, decreasing partnership stability, and first indications of delaying partnership formation, the potential of witnessing a marked increase of fertility levels in the near future is delimited. Our study's results contribute to a better understanding of the demographic mechanisms behind the decline in fertility in Finland, over the recent decade.

A change of direction for family policy in Italy: some reflections on the general family allowance (GFA)

We present and discuss the General Family Allowance (GFA), in Italian: Assegno Unico Universale, a measure that the Italian Government and Parliament have put in place from March 2022 addressing the persistent low fertility in Italy. The GFA modernizes monetary transfers in favor of families with children in Italy, covering large groups of families that were previously excluded from full benefits. Even if the aim of the GFA is to support fertility rather than to alleviate child poverty, it is likely that this measure will help to reduce poverty, especially for families with children previously excluded from significant cash contributions, such as recently resident foreigners and the unemployed. In addition, as GFA amounts are modest for wealthier couples, its potential effect on fertility-if there will be any-should be limited to couples with modest incomes. The GFA is also compared with the different systems of monetary transfers in favor of families with children of developed countries.

Determinants of Fertility Intentions of the Women in Bosnia and Herzegovina-An Example from the Semberija Region

The aim of this paper was to analyze the socio-demographic determinants of fertility in Bosnia and Herzegovina that affect the number of live births in Semberija. The paper focuses on work and educational statuses, economic crisis and unemployment, and other relevant factors that affect desired family sizes and lead to negative demographic trends. The relevant data were collected through a survey questionnaire filled by a verified sample of 1000 women in their reproductive period (aged 15-49). In order to evaluate the role of each research variable in predicting fertility intentions, the arithmetic mean, frequency of responses in percentage, Pearson's coefficient, and a logistic regression model were used to explore the related factors of fertility behaviors among women in this population. The results showed that employment status, poor housing conditions, and financial support from the state statistically significantly impact future birth trends. Those socio-demographic factors affect desired family sizes and have proven essential to future fertile behavior.

The Role of Gender Differences in Partnering and Re-partnering for Gender Differences in Completed Fertility

Individuals increasingly enter a series of relationships during their reproductive years. As births in higher-order unions increase, fertility becomes partially contingent on re-partnering. Previous research suggests that men re-partner at higher rates than women. This study analyzes whether gender differences in partnering and re-partnering influence gender differences in cohort fertility. We use Finnish register data on all births, marriages, and cohabitations between the ages of 18 and 47 over four full birth cohorts. The gender differences in cohort fertility rate are decomposed into components due to birth rate differences and a compositional component owing to gender differences in the share partnered and re-partnered. We observe no impact of “re-partnering premium” on male fertility. Men have marginally higher re-partnering rates at older ages, when birth rates are low, whereas women have higher rates of partnering and re-partnering at prime childbearing ages. This compositional effect drives a “partnering” advantage for female fertility. This connection between gender differences in partnering and cohort fertility is true across educational levels.

Cross-sectional average length of life by parity: Country comparisons

This study aims to present an alternative measure of fertility-cross-sectional average length of life by parity (CALP)-which: (1) is a period fertility indicator using all available cohort information; (2) captures the dynamics of parity transitions; and (3) links information on fertility quantum and timing together as part of a single phenomenon. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, we calculate CALP for 12 countries in the Global North. Our results show that women spend the longest time at parity zero on average, and in countries where women spend comparatively longer time at parity zero, they spend fewer years at parities one and two. The analysis is extended by decomposing the differences in CALPs between Sweden and the United States, revealing age- and cohort-specific contributions to population-level differences in parity-specific fertility patterns. The decomposition illustrates how high teenage fertility in the United States dominates the differences between these two countries in the time spent at different parities.

Shifts in age pattern, timing of childbearing and trend in fertility level across six regions of Nigeria: Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys from 2003-2018

BACKGROUND

Nigeria's population is projected to increase from 200 million in 2019 to 450 million in 2050 if the fertility level remains at the current level. Thus, we examined the shifts in the age pattern of fertility, timing of childbearing and trend in fertility levels from 2003 and 2018 across six regions of Nigeria.

METHOD

This study utilised the 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey datasets. Each survey was a cross-sectional population-based design, and a two-stage cluster sampling technique was used to select women aged 15-49 years. The changes in the timing of childbearing were examined by calculating the corresponding mean ages at the birth of different birth orders for each birth order separately to adjust the Quantum effect for births. The Gompertz Relational Model was used to examine the age pattern of fertility and refined fertility level.

RESULT

In Nigeria, it was observed that there was a minimal decline in mean children ever born (CEB) between 2003 and 2018 across all maternal age groups except aged 20-24 years. The pattern of mean CEB by the age of mothers was the same across the Nigeria regions except in North West. Nigeria's mean number of CEB to women aged 40-49 in 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018 surveys was 6.7, 6.6, 6.3 and 6.1, respectively. The mean age (years) at first birth marginally increased from 21.3 in 2003 to 22.5 in 2018. In 2003, the mean age at first birth was highest in South East (24.3) and lowest in North East (19.4); while South West had the highest (24.4) and both North East and North West had the lowest (20.2) in 2018. Similar age patterns of fertility existed between 2003 and 2018 across the regions. Nigeria's estimated total fertility level for 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018 was 6.1, 6.1, 5.9 and 5.7, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The findings showed a reducing but slow fertility declines in Nigeria. The decline varied substantially across the regions. For a downward change in the level of fertility, policies that will constrict the spread of fertility distribution across the region in Nigeria must urgently be put in place.

Projecting the Contribution of Assisted Reproductive Technology to Completed Cohort Fertility

Assisted reproductive technology (ART) is increasingly influencing the fertility trends of high-income countries characterized by a pattern of delayed childbearing. However, research on the impact of ART on completed fertility is limited and the extent to which delayed births are realized later in life through ART is not well understood. This study uses data from Australian fertility clinics and national birth registries to project the contribution of ART for cohorts of women that have not yet completed their reproductive life and estimate the role played by ART in the fertility 'recuperation' process. Assuming that the increasing trends in ART success rates and treatment rates continue, the projection shows that the contribution of ART-conceived births to completed fertility will increase from 2.1% among women born in 1968 to 5.7% among women born in 1986. ART is projected to substantially affect the extent to which childbearing delay will be compensated at older ages, suggesting that its availability may become an important factor in helping women to achieve their reproductive plans later in life.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-023-09765-3.

The Decline of Spanish Fertility: The Role of Religion

The Spanish total fertility rate declined from 2.8 to below 1.4 children per woman from 1975 to 2020. Spain is categorized as a "lowest-low fertility" country. Although there have been many attempts to explain the Spanish fertility decline, there has been an insufficient focus been given to religion. This brief report aims to analyse how religious affiliation, particularly being Catholics, associates with fertility behaviours-entering parenthood and the total number of children. Using three nationally representative surveys, we show that, compared with the religiously non-affiliated, Catholic women have a higher likelihood of entering parenthood after controlling for demographic, union status and educational characteristics. After controlling for changes in education and union formation, changes in religious affiliation account for approximately 4% of the cohort variation in the age at first birth, but there is no significant contribution for men nor to the total number of children for both sexes.

Partnership dynamics and the fertility gap between Sweden and Spain

Below-replacement fertility has persisted across European countries for a few decades, though, with variation. Delays in age at first union and first birth have been key factors in the declining fertility levels within these societies. While the vast majority of births occurs within a stable partnership, the link between partnership formation and childbearing is rarely taken into account. In this paper, we examine the role of partnership formation in explaining the gap between Sweden and Spain regarding transitions to first birth. We utilize data from the 2018 Spanish Fertility Survey and the 2012/2013 Swedish Generations and Gender Survey to explore transition probabilities to first birth and implement Kitagawa decomposition and standardization techniques. Results show that having a partner is a strong predictor of becoming a first-time parent in the next 3 years, mainly within the ages 25 to 35. On average, Swedish first-birth transition probabilities for women are only 12% higher than probabilities of Spanish counterparts within this age range, suggesting that the proportion of partnerships formed plays a crucial role in explaining the fertility gap. Decomposition results confirm that before age 30, 74% of the difference in first-order births among women are due to the difference in partnership composition. We further find that earlier union formation in Spain could potentially reduce childlessness levels. Overall, our study highlights the importance of examining the role of partnership dynamics in fertility studies.

Measuring US fertility using administrative data from the Census Bureau

BACKGROUND

Longitudinal data available for studying fertility in the United States are not representative at the state level, limiting analyses of subnational variation in US fertility. The US Census Bureau makes available restricted data that may be used for measuring fertility, but the data have not previously been described for a scholarly audience or used for fertility research.

OBJECTIVE

This paper describes and analyzes restricted-use administrative birth data available through the Census Numident for nearly all US births for more than the last century. Within these data, most births since 1997 are linked to parents through the Census Household Composition Key (CHCK). These analyses are designed to illustrate the scope and limitations of these data for the study of US fertility.

METHODS

We describe the creation and content of the Census Numindent and CHCK data sets and compare the data to published US vital statistics. We also analyze the geographic coverage of both data sets and compare the demographic composition of the new data sources to national demographic composition. We further illustrate how these novel data sources may be used by comparing them to survey responses at the individual level.

CONTRIBUTION

This paper describes an underutilized source of national US data for studying fertility, shows the quality of these data by performing analyses, and explains how scholars can access these data for research.

Is Two Still Best? Change in Parity-Specific Fertility Across Education in Low-Fertility Countries

The dominance of two-child families is considered an intrinsic characteristic of low fertility societies. Their share was continuously increasing among baby boom cohorts but the rise ceased afterwards. While parity- and education-specific fertility trends during the expansion of the two-child families have been studied, corresponding analyses of developments in the post-expansion birth cohorts are scarce. This study investigates the parity-specific fertility trends that ended the expansion of two-child families across educational groups. We use data on completed fertility of female cohorts born between 1936 and 1970 in 16 low-fertility countries. Besides examining trends in education- and parity-specific fertility, we provide evidence on increasing variation in family size and on the contribution of parity-specific fertility to the share of two child families among women with low, medium and high education. Our results show that the expansion of two-child families stopped as the variation in family size increased: transition rates to first and/or second birth declined whereas those to third birth increased. This polarisation process was strongest among women with low education. Apparently, as the number of women progressing to second birth declined, they became more selected and family-oriented, and thus more likely to progress to further births. The fact that the strongest polarisation of fertility was observed among the low educated reflects the group’s increasing selectivity. We demonstrate that rising polarisation of family size is a common development to most high-income low-fertility populations, especially among the low educated, regardless of substantial cross-country differences in fertility levels as well as in institutional, economic and cultural settings.

Does Childbearing Affect Cognitive Health in Later Life? Evidence From an Instrumental Variable Approach

Cognitive decline is a widespread concern as populations grow older. However, population aging is partly driven by a decrease in fertility, and family size may influence cognitive functioning in later life. Prior studies have shown that fertility history is associated with late-life cognition, but whether the relationship is causal remains unclear. We use an instrumental variable approach and data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe to examine whether having three or more versus two children affects late-life cognition. Parents often prefer to have at least one son and one daughter. We thus exploit the sex composition of the first two children as a source of exogenous variation in the probability of having three or more children. Results indicate that having three or more versus two children has a negative effect on late-life cognition. This effect is strongest in Northern Europe, perhaps because higher fertility decreases financial resources yet does not improve social resources in this region. Future studies should address the potential effects of childlessness or having one child on late-life cognition and explore the mediating mechanisms.

Less Partnering, Less Children, or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010

In the 2010s, fertility has declined in the Nordic countries, most strikingly in Finland, and first births drive the decline. It remains unclear whether this decline results from decreased fertility within unions, changing union dynamics, or both. Thus, we investigated changes in the union–first birth dynamics from 2000 through 2018 in Finland using full-coverage population register data and an incidence-based multistate model. To do so, we calculated the yearly age-specific transition probabilities across states of single, cohabitation, marriage, and first births among 15- to 45-year-old childless men and women. We found lower fertility rates in unions after 2010, increasing dissolution rates amongst cohabiting couples, and long-term declines in the transition to marriage. Counterfactual simulations showed that, for the decline in first births since 2010, fertility within unions matters more (three-quarters) than union dynamics (one-quarter): that is, lower fertility in cohabitating and married individuals explained 42% and 13% of the decline, respectively, and decreasing fertility rates among couples entering cohabitation explained a further 17%. Decreasing marriage (19%) and cohabitation rates (2–4%) as well as higher union dissolution rates (6%) explained a smaller share of the first birth decline. The decline in first births was somewhat sharper among the lower social strata, but across strata the decreasing first birth transitions in unions explained most of the decline. To conclude, while changing union dynamics provide a partial explanation, postponing or foregoing fertility within unions represents the primary reason for the fertility decline.

China's fertility change: an analysis with multiple measures

Background

The period fertility in China has declined to very low levels, and the completed cohort fertility rate (CFR) has also decreased significantly. However, the exact fertility rate remains controversial. While the tempo effect has played a significant role in China’s period fertility decline, child underreporting has to be taken into consideration in China’s fertility research.

Methods

By using the census data from 1982 to 2010, and the 1% population sample survey data from 1995 to 2015, we systematically analyzed China’s fertility and its trends since the 1980s using period fertility measures, adjusted period fertility measures, cohort fertility measures, and indirect estimation methods.

Results

The results show that marriage postponement significantly affects the TFR decline. Even after eliminating the tempo and parity structure effect, the adjusted TFR has fallen below 1.5, and the first-order fertility rate dropped to 0.9 in 2015. The CFR for women aged 45–49 declined from 5.37 in 1982 to 1.62 in 2015 mainly because of a decrease in fourth and higher-order births from 1982 to 1990, a decrease in second and third births from 1990 to 2000, and a decrease in second births from 2000 to 2015. Indirect estimation methods yielded a TFR in the range of 1.5–1.6 for the period 2000–2010 and an average TFR of 1.49 for the period 2011–2020.

Conclusions

The traditional norm of universal marriage and childbearing for Chinese women is changing. China’s fertility has been steadily declining, as measured by both period and cohort indicators. Following the historical change, fertility may continue to decline even after introducing the universal three-child policy in China in 2021.

Microsimulation of Household and Marital Transitions Leading to Childlessness Among Dutch Women Born Between 1971 and 2000

After reaching historically low levels among the women born in the early 1940s, childlessness has been increasing in most Western countries among women born in the 1950s and 1960s. This increase took place as patterns of transition to adulthood have become increasingly late, protracted, and complex. Yet, it is precisely those women who enter a first relationship late, spend more time as single, and experience union instability who more often remain childless. This suggests that levels of childlessness will continue to increase as younger cohorts complete their childbearing histories. In this study, we use microsimulation to project the household and union formation histories of cohorts of Dutch women born between 1971 and 2000. Results suggest that childlessness will actually decrease among cohorts born between 1971 and 1983 and then increase among those born between 1984 and 2000. The decrease occurs as pathways of household and union formation become later, more protracted, and more complex, but also as cohabiting women start to exhibit a higher propensity to become mothers. The increase, on the other hand, occurs as pathways become somewhat less protracted and complex, but also as the propensity of cohabiting women to become mothers returns to previous levels and as age at leaving the parental home strongly rises. Childlessness levels appear to increasingly depend on the childbearing decisions of cohabiting couples and on age at leaving the parental home.

Didn't Plan One but got One: Unintended and sooner-than-intended Parents in the East and the West of Europe

The realisation rates of short-term childbearing intentions are known to be consistently lower in post-socialist countries than in the rest of Europe. However, the East-West differences in the outcomes of intentions to postpone or forego (further) childbearing have not been previously examined. We employ two panel waves of the Generations and Gender Survey in six countries (three from Eastern and three from Western Europe), and, based on the short- and long-term fertility intentions expressed by respondents at the first survey wave, we classify the births occurring between two waves as intended, sooner-than-intended, or unintended. We find that in our study population of non-teenage respondents who had the same partner at both survey waves and a child between the two survey waves, between around 10% (Western European countries) and 30% (Eastern European countries) experienced an unintended or a sooner-than-intended birth. The East-West divide is largely driven by the share of unintended parents which is clearly higher in the post-socialist countries. However, the geographical pattern fades away once we control for the anticipated costs of having a child. Our study gives insight into East-West differences in attitudes to childbearing and into how they affect reproductive behaviour. It also offers methodological improvements of cross-national panel surveys designed to examine childbearing intentions that would allow for a more accurate assessment of childbearing intendedness.

Genome-Wide Heritability Estimates for Family Life Course Complexity

Sequence analysis is an established method used to study the complexity of family life courses. Although individual and societal characteristics have been linked with the complexity of family trajectories, social scientists have neglected the potential role of genetic factors in explaining variation in family transitions and events across the life course. We estimate the genetic contribution to sequence complexity and a wide range of family demographic behaviors using genomic relatedness-based, restricted maximum likelihood models with data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study. This innovative methodological approach allows us to provide the first estimates of the heritability of composite life course outcomes-that is, sequence complexity. We demonstrate that a number of family demographic indicators (e.g., the age at first birth and first marriage) are heritable and provide evidence that composite metrics can be influenced by genetic factors. For example, our results show that 11% of the total variation in the complexity of differentiated family sequences is attributable to genetic influences. Moreover, we test whether this genetic contribution varies by social environment as indexed by birth cohort over a period of rapid changes in family norms during the twentieth century. Interestingly, we find evidence that the complexity of fertility and differentiated family trajectories decreased across cohorts, but we find no evidence that the heritability of the complexity of partnership trajectories changed across cohorts. Therefore, our results do not substantiate claims that lower normative constraints on family demographic behavior increase the role of genes.

Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries

With historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic fertility trends have strongly influenced fertility theories. However, the period fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries, raising the question of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline and analyze the extent to which it is attributable to tempo or quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-30s. This is a reversal from the previous trend in which fertility rates in the early 30s increased relatively steadily in those countries in the period 1980-2010. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic cohort fertility will decline from 2 children for the 1970 cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected cohort fertility (below 1.6), and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower cohort fertility decline. These findings suggest that the conceptualization of the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be revised.

Translation and psychometric evaluation of the Korean version of the fertility awareness and attitudes towards parenthood questionnaire

PURPOSE

This study presents a translation, cultural adaptation, and psychometric evaluation of two instruments of the Fertility Awareness and Attitudes Towards Parenthood (FAAP) questionnaire (Conditions and Life changes) for use in South Korea.

METHODS

This methodological study included 166 university students for psychometric evaluation in the sixth step. The first five steps included forward translation, backward translation, committee review, assessment of content validity, and a pre-test. In the sixth step, psychometric properties, including internal consistency, construct validity, and criterion validity, were evaluated. Exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis were conducted to identify the structure of the tool and to assess its validity.

RESULTS

The Korean version showed acceptable internal consistency. Cronbach's ⍺ was .73 for FAAPC-conditions and .83 for FAAP-Life changes. FAAP-Conditions showed a four-factor structure (social conditions, relationship with partner, external environment, and child-rearing support) and FAAP-Life changes had a two-factor structure (reward and burden). In the confirmatory analysis, CMIN/DF, TLI, IFI, SRMR, CFI, and RMSEA were satisfactory.

CONCLUSION

This study provided preliminary evidence of the acceptability, reliability, and validity of the Korean version of the FAAP questionnaire in university students in South Korea. Nonetheless, further evaluation among Korean young adults is warranted to validate this instrument.

Educational composition and parity contribution to completed cohort fertility change in low-fertility settings

Extensive literature has documented the contribution of rising women's education to decreases in completed cohort fertility (CCF). A key question related to the education-fertility relationship is to what extent the decrease in fertility is the result of changes in educational composition vs changes in fertility behaviours within educational categories. This study quantified the effect of educational expansion on fertility levels by decomposing the overall change in CCF into educational composition and education-specific fertility, and explored the changes in parity-specific components of CCF by education for cohorts born between 1940 and 1970. The results show that, despite the decline in CCF being caused mostly by changes in fertility behaviours, educational composition had a considerable impact for some cohorts. The decline in third and higher-order births played a central role in the fall in CCF across educational groups, while the effects of transitions to first and second births varied substantially.

Educational Differences in Cohort Fertility Across Sub-national Regions in Europe

Educational differences in female cohort fertility vary strongly across high-income countries and over time, but knowledge about how educational fertility differentials play out at the sub-national regional level is limited. Examining these sub-national regional patterns might improve our understanding of national patterns, as regionally varying contextual conditions may affect fertility. This study provides for the first time for a large number of European countries a comprehensive account of educational differences in the cohort fertility rate (CFR) at the sub-national regional level. We harmonise data from population registers, censuses, and large-sample surveys for 15 countries to measure women’s completed fertility by educational level and region of residence at the end of the reproductive lifespan. In order to explore associations between educational differences in CFRs and levels of economic development, we link our data to regional GDP per capita. Empirical Bayesian estimation is used to reduce uncertainty in the regional fertility estimates. We document an overall negative gradient between the CFR and level of education, and notable regional variation in the gradient. The steepness of the gradient is inversely related to the economic development level. It is steepest in the least developed regions and close to zero in the most developed regions. This tendency is observed within countries as well as across all regions of all countries. Our findings underline the variability of educational gradients in women’s fertility, suggest that higher levels of development may be associated with less negative gradients, and call for more in-depth sub-national-level fertility analyses by education.

High-to-Low (Regional) Fertility Transitions in a Peripheral European Country: The Contribution of Exploratory Time Series Analysis

Diachronic variations in demographic rates have frequently reflected social transformations and a (more or less evident) impact of sequential economic downturns. By assessing changes over time in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at the regional scale in Italy, our study investigates the long-term transition (1952–2019) characteristic of Mediterranean fertility, showing a continuous decline of births since the late 1970s and marked disparities between high- and low-fertility regions along the latitude gradient. Together with a rapid decline in the country TFR, the spatiotemporal evolution of regional fertility in Italy—illustrated through an exploratory time series statistical approach—outlines the marked divide between (wealthier) Northern regions and (economically disadvantaged) Southern regions. Non-linear fertility trends and increasing spatial heterogeneity in more recent times indicate the role of individual behaviors leveraging a generalized decline in marriage and childbearing propensity. Assuming differential responses of regional fertility to changing socioeconomic contexts, these trends are more evident in Southern Italy than in Northern Italy. Reasons at the base of such fertility patterns were extensively discussed focusing—among others—on the distinctive contribution of internal and international migrations to regional fertility rates. Based on these findings, Southern Italy, an economically disadvantaged, peripheral region in Mediterranean Europe, is taken as a paradigmatic case of demographic shrinkage—whose causes and consequences can be generalized to wider contexts in (and outside) Europe.

Partners' Educational Characteristics and Fertility: Disentangling the Effects of Earning Potential and Unemployment Risk on Second Births

This study investigates the link between the educational characteristics of partners in heterosexual relationships and their transition to second births, accounting for the selection into parenthood by fitting multi-level event history models. We compare the fertility of Beckerian unions characterized by gender-role specialization with the fertility of dual-earner couples, characterized by the pooling of incomes. Focusing on the economic aspect of the educational degree, in a first step, we estimate the earning potential and unemployment risks by field and level of education, country and sex using European Labour Force Surveys. Next, we link these results with Generation and Gender Survey data from six countries and model couples' transition to second births. We find evidence in support of both the pooling of resources family model (notably in Belgium) and the Beckerian gender-role specialization model. The effects of the earning potential and unemployment risk attached to his and her field of education tends to vary by country context.

The realization of fertility intentions in the context of childbearing postponement: comparison of transitional and post-transitional populations

Childbearing postponement is a key demographic change that has been experienced by most European countries. It leads to a late-fertility pattern, with women realizing their reproductive plans preferentially after the age of 30. This may result in a lower fertility level. Since the ideal family size has not changed in most European countries, it has been argued that the end of the postponement transition further depends on the extent to which the lower fertility of younger women is compensated for by an increase in that of older women. Thus, the completion of the transition depends not only on the formation of a late childbearing pattern, but also on the capability of women to realize their reproductive plans if they commence childbearing later in their lives. This study employed a new approach to assess postponement transition based on analysis of the realization of the fertility intentions of women at later childbearing ages using survey panel data. A method that enables the differentiation between transitional and post-transitional cohorts was applied. The investigation was based on a comparison of the postponement transition in Czechia and France, the former being a post-communist and the latter a Western European country. It was found that despite having a similar pattern of fertility timing, Czechia and France underwent differing phases of postponement transition. The Czech population was identified as being transitional since only the ‘transition’ cohorts had completed their fertility during the period under study. These cohorts did not show a significant increase in realization of fertility intentions in later age. In contrast, the post-transitional French population is characterized by higher completed cohort fertility rates amongst women who entered motherhood at the age of 30 and over and by the significantly higher realization of fertility intentions for women aged 30–34 years.

Early Family Life Course Standardization in Sweden: The Role of Compositional Change

The diversity of early family life courses is thought to have increased, although empirical evidence is mixed. Less standardized family formation is attributed to compositional changes in educational attainment, labour market participation, and childhood living conditions. I investigate whether and why family trajectories have become more or less standardized across birth cohorts in Sweden. I combine sequence metrics with Oaxaca–Blinder decompositions to assess the compositional shifts that drive changes in family formation standardization. Family trajectories of individuals born in 1952, 1962, and 1972 from age 18 to 35 are reconstructed using Swedish register data. My results demonstrate that early family formation has become more standardized across birth cohorts. Further, compositional differences between birth cohorts partially account for this standardization, especially for women. For example, higher levels of educational attainment are associated with family formation standardization. This substantiates arguments that family formation may re-standardize following the second demographic transition.