Economic uncertainty and first-birth intentions in Europe

Navigating work and motherhood: exploring the link between career orientation and childbearing motivations in emerging adulthood

BACKGROUND

Difficulties in reconciling work and family life are recognised as one of the major reasons for women delaying or even forgoing childbearing. Nonetheless, there are different mechanisms through which women's engagement in the labour market can impact their choices regarding having children. The current study focuses on the relationship between women's career orientation and the childbearing motivation of young, childless women. Additionally, we examine the moderating effect of women's self-esteem.

METHODS

Questionnaires to assess women's childbearing motivation, career orientation (career commitment and career centeredness), and self-esteem were administered online to Polish childless women aged 18-25 (N = 358). Multivariate regression was performed to verify how professional aspirations determine childbearing motivation. Moderation analysis included self-esteem in the equation.

RESULTS

Women's desire to be employed over their life course (career commitment) was associated with perceiving childbearing as less strenuous. However, women who placed a higher value on professional development perceived more costs and barriers related to parenthood. Women with higher self-esteem demonstrated a generally more negative view of childbearing, yet their perceived costs of having children increased along with rising professional aspirations.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate that career aspirations are a highly complex construct, and their relationship to childbearing motivation may differ depending on how women perceive their future in the labour market. The mere desire to engage in professional work is not detrimental to childbearing motivation, but the anticipated costs of having children become greater the more a woman is career-centred and the lower her self-esteem.

Social Climate, Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions: from the Great Recession to the Covid-19 Crisis

The literature on fertility in context of crises considers major crises exclusively as economic experiences, however, they are also social phenomena, affecting communities, morality and social interactions. When changes in the social climate are of a sufficient magnitude, they tend to break down the social fabric and generate additional uncertainty, more of a social form, which may affect reproductive decisions beyond economic uncertainty alone. Applying Fixed Effects Models to 18 waves of the Swiss Household Panel (2004-2021), this study evaluates the relationship between changes in social climate and social uncertainty and first and second order childbearing intentions, net of economic uncertainty, sociodemographic determinants and unobserved time-invariant individual and local area characteristics. Canton-level mean and variance of generalized trust and optimism about the future are used as proxies of the quality and the unpredictability of the social climate respondents live in. Besides parity, the study explores period variation by comparing the time around the Great Recession (before, during and after) and the years around the Covid-19 pandemic. Results show that the worsening of the social climate and its growing uncertainty correlate with lower and more uncertain first and second birth intentions. Yet, important parity-period interactions emerge.

Changes in reproductive behavior associated with the perception and individual experiences of the COVID-19 pandemic

This study evaluates the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the reproductive behavior of men and women during the most restrictive period of the pandemic in Czechia. At the end of this period, data was collected for the Czech GGS COVID Pilot-Follow-up Study (April 2021), which included additional questions on reproductive plans and perceptions of the pandemic related to fertility. The study focuses in detail on the evaluation of the favorability of fertility during this period by considering the impact of the pandemic on the lives of individuals in various life areas. It subsequently attempts to determine to what extent this evaluation and personal experiences of the pandemic affected reproductive behavior (the intended number of children, current attempts to conceive and short-term fertility intentions). In summary, in most cases the respondents considered the most severe period of the pandemic to be unfavorable in terms of childbirth. Women provided an overall negative assessment of the favorability of childbirth in this period, which was reflected in a reduction in the planned number of children, while the men who considered this period favorable declared a higher chance of short-term fertility intentions.

A change of direction for family policy in Italy: some reflections on the general family allowance (GFA)

We present and discuss the General Family Allowance (GFA), in Italian: Assegno Unico Universale, a measure that the Italian Government and Parliament have put in place from March 2022 addressing the persistent low fertility in Italy. The GFA modernizes monetary transfers in favor of families with children in Italy, covering large groups of families that were previously excluded from full benefits. Even if the aim of the GFA is to support fertility rather than to alleviate child poverty, it is likely that this measure will help to reduce poverty, especially for families with children previously excluded from significant cash contributions, such as recently resident foreigners and the unemployed. In addition, as GFA amounts are modest for wealthier couples, its potential effect on fertility-if there will be any-should be limited to couples with modest incomes. The GFA is also compared with the different systems of monetary transfers in favor of families with children of developed countries.

Employment Protection Legislation, Labour Market Dualism, and Fertility in Europe

Theoretically, whether a more loosely regulated labour market inhibits or fosters fertility in a society is ambiguous. Empirically, the few studies analysing the relationship between the strictness of employment protection legislation-the norms and procedures regulating labour markets' hiring and firing processes-and fertility have found mixed evidence. This paper reconciles the ambivalent conclusions of previous studies by analysing the impact of employment protection legislation and labour market dualism on total fertility across 19 European countries between 1990 and 2019. Our results indicate that an increase in employment protection for regular workers positively affects total fertility. Nonetheless, an increasing gap between the regulation of regular and temporary employment-that is, labour market dualism-negatively impacts total fertility. These effects, of small-to-moderate intensity, are relatively homogeneous across age groups and geographical areas and are especially pronounced among the lower educated. We conclude that labour market dualism, rather than a "rigid" employment protection legislation, discourages fertility.

Second Birth Fertility in Germany: Social Class, Gender, and the Role of Economic Uncertainty

Building on a thick strand of the literature on the determinants of higher-order births, this study uses a gender and class perspective to analyse second birth progression rates in Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from 1990 to 2020, individuals are classified based on their occupation into: upper service, lower service, skilled manual/higher-grade routine nonmanual, and semi-/unskilled manual/lower-grade routine nonmanual classes. Results highlight the "economic advantage" of men and women in service classes who experience strongly elevated second birth rates. Finally, we demonstrate that upward career mobility post-first birth is associated with higher second birth rates, particularly among men.

Measuring Fertility Intentions During Times of Crisis: An Example Using Survey Data Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic

Fertility intentions-intentions regarding whether and when to have children-predict reproductive health outcomes. Measuring fertility intentions is difficult, particularly during macrostructural shocks, for at least two reasons: (1) fertility intentions may be especially volatile during periods of uncertainty and (2) macrostructural shocks may constrain data collection. We propose a set of indicators that capture how a macrostructural shock directly alters fertility intentions, with a particular focus on the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. We advance the conceptualization and construct of fertility intentions measures in three ways. First, we demonstrate the value of direct questions about whether women attributed changes in fertility intentions to the pandemic. Second, we highlight the importance of a typology that delineates fertility postponement, advancement, foregoing, and indecision. Third, we demonstrate the importance of incorporating a granular time window within a two-year period to capture short-term changes to fertility intentions. We exemplify the value of our proposed measures using survey data from a probabilistic sample of women aged 18-34 in Pernambuco, Brazil. We discuss the self-reported change in intentions due to Covid in wave 1 as well as panel change across waves. We further ground our contributions by uncovering important variations by social origin and parity.

Measuring the effect of employment uncertainty on fertility in low-fertility contexts: an overview of existing measures

Numerous studies aim to connect negative fertility desires and outcomes with employment conditions deemed to be uncertain. However, there is a lack of consensus about how to define, conceptualise, and measure employment uncertainty. This paper considers issues surrounding the conceptualisation of employment uncertainty. It then reviews existing measures of employment uncertainty in the context of fertility decisions. Finally, it raises considerations about their use. While some aspects of employment uncertainty are well studied, there are still gaps between theory and empirical evidence. Researchers should be aware of existing population heterogeneity, contextual factors, and model selection when considering their conceptualisation of employment uncertainty.

Fertility plans in the early times of the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of occupational and financial uncertainty in Italy

This study investigates the association between objective and subjective indicators of economic uncertainty, generated by the COVID-19 health and economic crisis, and young Italians' fertility plans during the 2020. We use unique repeated cross-sectional data, collected at different time points during the pandemic (March and October/November 2020) together with pre-COVID data (2016). The data offer a standard fertility intention question pre- and during-COVID, and also a direct question on whether pre-COVID fertility plans have been confirmed, postponed or abandoned. In March 2020, individuals with more vulnerable occupations show a lower probability of intending to have a(nother) child in the short-term and a higher probability of abandoning their pre-COVID fertility plan; in October 2020 changes in fertility plans do not vary by employment condition. Instead, both in March and October, those who suffered from a negative income shock and those with negative expectations on their future income and occupation are more likely to abandon their pre-pandemic fertility plan compared to their better off counterparts. Overall, economic uncertainty seems to have similarly affected men and women's fertility intentions. Our findings point to the fact that the unequal economic consequences of the pandemic also produced and will produce heterogeneous effects on fertility intentions.

Employment uncertainty and fertility intentions: Stability or resilience?

The role of employment uncertainty as a fertility driver has previously been studied with a limited set of constructs, leading to inconclusive results. We address this oversight by considering perceived stability of employment and perceived resilience to potential job loss as two key dimensions of employment uncertainty in relation to fertility decision-making. The present study relies on the 2017 Italian Trustlab survey and its employment uncertainty module. We find that perception of resilience to job loss is a powerful predictor of fertility intentions, whereas perception of employment stability has only a limited impact. The observed relationship between resilience and fertility intentions is robust to the inclusion of person-specific risk attitude and does not depend on the unemployment rate or the share of fixed-term contracts in the area of residence. We conclude that the notion of employment uncertainty includes distinct expectations towards the future, which should be considered separately to understand fertility decision-making.Supplementary material for this article is available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2021.1939406.

Is the Predisposition to Have More Children Beneficial among Parents with Only One Child? Evidence from Spanish Parents

The fertility deficit in many European countries is related to a low rate of second births. Understanding the factors associated with the predisposition of one-child parents to have more children could contribute to the search for solutions to this social problem. Although previous evidence highlights the role of employment and social factors, psychological factors have been poorly investigated. This study examines the relationship between different psychosocial factors (rumination, personality, life satisfaction, perfectionism, social support, parental stress, guilt linked to work–family conflict, age and child temperament) and parents’ predisposition to have more children. The sample consisted of 96 one-child Spanish parents whose child was in early childhood education (59.3% women; M_age = 37.41). The results show that one-child parents with the predisposition to have more children, compared to those without a predisposition to have more children, showed higher levels of life satisfaction, extroversion and adaptive perfectionism but lower levels of rumination and parental stress. The social implications of these findings and how they may affect parenting today are discussed.

Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

In recent years, fertility rates have declined in most wealthy countries. This phenomenon has largely been explained by focusing on the rise of economic uncertainty. We contribute to this debate by arguing that, under uncertain conditions, narratives of the future-i.e., socially conveyed imagined futures-impact individuals' decision-making about childbearing. To assess this impact, we conducted (for the first time in fertility intention research) a controlled laboratory experiment in two contrasting settings: Florence (Italy, N = 800) and Oslo (Norway, N = 874). Individuals were randomly exposed to a specific positive or negative future economic scenario (treatments) and were compared with individuals who were not exposed to any scenario (control group). Participants were then asked whether they intended to have a child in the next three years. The results showed a clear causal impact of narratives of the future on fertility intentions among the participants. Moreover, when the actual economic condition at the macro- (country context) or micro-level (labor-market status and characteristics) was more favorable, negative narratives of the future played a more crucial role. Conversely, when the actual economic conditions were less favorable, positive narratives of the future proved especially important. We conclude that, in the era of global uncertainty, individuals respond to more than their actual situation and constraints; narratives of the future create a distance experience from the daily routine that plays a potent role by inhibiting or facilitating fertility decision-making.

Stability and change in fertility intentions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya

Fertility intentions are expected to decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic but limited empirical research on this topic has been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Longitudinal data from Kenya, with baseline (November 2019) and follow-up (June 2020) data, were used to 1) assess the extent to which individual-level fertility intentions changed, and 2) examine how security, specifically economic and health security, affected fertility intentions. The final sample included 3,095 women. The primary outcomes were change in quantum and timing. Exploratory analyses described overall changes within the sample and logistic regression models assessed sociodemographic and COVID-19 related correlates of change, specifically income loss at the household level, food insecurity, and ability to socially distance. Approximately 85% of women reported consistent fertility intentions related to both the number and timing of childbearing. No COVID-19-related factors were related to changing quantum intentions. Women who reported chronic food insecurity had 4.78 times the odds of accelerating their desired timing to next birth compared to those who reported no food insecurity (95% CI: 1.53-14.93), with a significant interaction by wealth. The COVID-19 pandemic did not lead to widespread changes in fertility intentions in Kenya, though the most vulnerable women may have accelerated their childbearing intentions.

Theory and explanation in demography: The case of low fertility in Europe

In the 50th anniversary edition of Population Studies, John Hobcraft commented that demographers spend too little time trying to explain the phenomena they measure and describe. A quarter of a century on, this paper looks at the state of theory and explanation in contemporary demography. I ask how demographers have approached the task of explanation since Hobcraft's comment, grounding the discussion in the mainstream literature on low fertility in Europe. Using selected examples, I critically review macro- and micro-level approaches to explanation, highlighting some of the philosophical problems that each encounters. I argue that different conceptions of what demography is, and the explanatory language fertility researchers use, lead to differences in explanatory strategies that are rarely explicitly recognized. I also consider how critical theories challenge demographers to think in new ways. Despite the increasing attention paid to theory and explanation, I conclude that more engagement with the philosophy of social sciences is needed before fertility researchers can legitimately claim their studies do as much to explain and understand as to quantify and describe.

A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework

The generalized and relatively homogeneous fertility decline across European countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession poses serious challenges to our knowledge of contemporary low fertility patterns. In this paper, we argue that fertility decisions are not a mere "statistical shadow of the past", and advance the Narrative Framework, a new approach to the relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility. This framework proffers that individuals act according to or despite uncertainty based on their "narrative of the future" - imagined futures embedded in social elements and their interactions. We also posit that personal narratives of the future are shaped by the "shared narratives" produced by socialization agents, including parents and peers, as well as by the narratives produced by the media and other powerful opinion formers. Finally, within this framework, we propose several empirical strategies, from both a qualitative and a quantitative perspective, including an experimental approach, for assessing the role of narratives of the future in fertility decisions.

Transition to first birth during the Great Recession: the case of Greece

Abstract

In this study, we examine the effects of the economic uncertainty of partners on the transition to first birth in Greece before and after the onset of the recent economic crisis. After selecting a sample of childless couples, we applied a random effects model to EU-SILC data for the period 2005–2013. Few studies have focused on the association between economic uncertainty and fertility in Greece considering characteristics of both partners. Even fewer studies have examined panel data in the context of the recent crisis. Our findings show that Greek couples in which both partners are employed, have a high income, or are highly educated are in a more favourable position to have a first child. During the Greek Great Recession, corresponding in our study to the period 2010–2013, the odds of having a first child decreased to half the odds in the 2005–2009 period. The recession period also modified the effect of couples’ characteristics on first childbearing. During the economic crisis, male breadwinner couples were particularly penalized in their transition to have a first child. Surprisingly, couples with at least one temporary worker, usually the woman, were encouraged to have their first child. Implications in terms of gender and social inequality are discussed in the concluding section, and selection processes at play are also discussed.

Keywords

Fertility, Economic uncertainty, Economic recession, Greece