Predicting the outcome of occupational accidents by CART and CHAID methods at a steel factory in Iran

Predictors of Adolescent Intimate Partner Sexual Violence Victimization: Patterns of Intersectional Social Positions in a Statewide, School-based Sample

Intimate partner sexual violence (IPSV) is a substantial public health issue faced by youth, with disparities along lines of race, gender, and sexual orientation. Using an intersectional framework, the current study describes the prevalence of self-reported IPSV victimization across intersecting social positions among adolescents. High school students who completed the 2019 Minnesota Student Survey were asked whether they had ever experienced IPSV. Using exhaustive Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection (eCHAID), responses were modeled using five indicators: racial/ethnic identity, transgender/genderqueer/genderfluid identity, sex assigned at birth, sexual orientation, and school location. The prevalence of IPSV victimization within each end group identified by the eCHAID varied from 2.6% to 32.0%. The highest prevalence of IPSV among all students was observed in subgroups defined by multiple marginalized social positions; for example, 32.0% among lesbian, gay, bisexual, queer, pansexual, or questioning (LGBQ+) students of color who were transgender, genderqueer, genderfluid or unsure of their gender, and assigned male at birth; 22.8% among LGBQ+ students assigned female at birth and enrolled in a Greater Minnesota (outside of the Twin Cities) school; and 22.2% among Native+ or missing race LGBQ+ students assigned female at birth and enrolled in a metropolitan school. Within the eCHAID decision tree, several subsamples of students were split into two more subsamples with a twofold or greater statistically significant difference in IPSV victimization prevalence between them. Findings from this study highlight notable disparities in the prevalence of IPSV victimization among Minnesota youth and demonstrate the importance of detailing the distribution of interpersonal violence outcomes across youth with multiple marginalized identities. Findings suggest that disparities reported along one categorical axis only may miss important nuances in how risk for IPSV is distributed. Population health researchers should utilize methods that allow for the explication of complex intersections that characterize individuals' social positions in estimating the prevalence of sexual violence.

Establishment-level safety analytics: a scoping review

The use of data analytics has seen widespread application in fields such as medicine and supply chain management, but their application in occupational safety has only recently become more common. The purpose of this scoping review was to summarize studies that employed analytics within establishments to reveal insights about work-related injuries or fatalities. Over 300 articles were reviewed to survey the objectives, scope and methods used in this emerging field. We conclude that the promise of analytics for providing actionable insights to address occupational safety concerns is still in its infancy. Our review shows that most articles were focused on method development and validation, including studies that tested novel methods or compared the utility of multiple methods. Many of the studies cited various challenges in overcoming barriers caused by inadequate or inefficient technical infrastructures and unsupportive data cultures that threaten the accuracy and quality of insights revealed by the analytics.

Decoding emotional resilience in aging: unveiling the interplay between daily functioning and emotional health

Background

EPs pose significant challenges to individual health and quality of life, attracting attention in public health as a risk factor for diminished quality of life and healthy life expectancy in middle-aged and older adult populations. Therefore, in the context of global aging, meticulous exploration of the factors behind emotional issues becomes paramount. Whether ADL can serve as a potential marker for EPs remains unclear. This study aims to provide new evidence for ADL as an early predictor of EPs through statistical analysis and validation using machine learning algorithms.

Methods

Data from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) national baseline survey, comprising 9,766 samples aged 45 and above, were utilized. ADL was assessed using the BI, while the presence of EPs was evaluated based on the record of "Diagnosed with Emotional Problems by a Doctor" in CHARLS data. Statistical analyses including independent samples t-test, chi-square test, Pearson correlation analysis, and multiple linear regression were conducted using SPSS 25.0. Machine learning algorithms, including Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), and Logistic Regression (LR), were implemented using Python 3.10.2.

Results

Population demographic analysis revealed a significantly lower average BI score of 65.044 in the "Diagnosed with Emotional Problems by a Doctor" group compared to 85.128 in the "Not diagnosed with Emotional Problems by a Doctor" group. Pearson correlation analysis indicated a significant negative correlation between ADL and EPs (r = -0.165, p < 0.001). Iterative analysis using stratified multiple linear regression across three different models demonstrated the persistent statistical significance of the negative correlation between ADL and EPs (B = -0.002, β = -0.186, t = -16.476, 95% CI = -0.002, -0.001, p = 0.000), confirming its stability. Machine learning algorithms validated our findings from statistical analysis, confirming the predictive accuracy of ADL for EPs. The area under the curve (AUC) for the three models were SVM-AUC = 0.700, DT-AUC = 0.742, and LR-AUC = 0.711. In experiments using other covariates and other covariates + BI, the overall prediction level of machine learning algorithms improved after adding BI, emphasizing the positive effect of ADL on EPs prediction.

Conclusion

This study, employing various statistical methods, identified a negative correlation between ADL and EPs, with machine learning algorithms confirming this finding. Impaired ADL increases susceptibility to EPs.

A chemical accident cause text mining method based on improved accident triangle

BACKGROUND

With the rapid development of China's chemical industry, although researchers have developed many methods in the field of chemical safety, the situation of chemical safety in China is still not optimistic. How to prevent accidents has always been the focus of scholars' attention.

METHODS

Based on the characteristics of chemical enterprises and the Heinrich accident triangle, this paper developed the organizational-level accident triangle, which divides accidents into group-level, unit-level, and workshop-level accidents. Based on 484 accident records of a large chemical enterprise in China, the Spearman correlation coefficient was used to analyze the rationality of accident classification and the occurrence rules of accidents at different levels. In addition, this paper used TF-IDF and K-means algorithms to extract keywords and perform text clustering analysis for accidents at different levels based on accident classification. The risk factors of each accident cluster were further analyzed, and improvement measures were proposed for the sample enterprises.

RESULTS

The results show that reducing unit-level accidents can prevent group-level accidents. The accidents of the sample enterprises are mainly personal injury accidents, production accidents, environmental pollution accidents, and quality accidents. The leading causes of personal injury accidents are employees' unsafe behaviors, such as poor safety awareness, non-standard operation, illegal operation, untimely communication, etc. The leading causes of production accidents, environmental pollution accidents, and quality accidents include the unsafe state of materials, such as equipment damage, pipeline leakage, short-circuiting, excessive fluctuation of process parameters, etc. CONCLUSION: Compared with the traditional accident classification method, the accident triangle proposed in this paper based on the organizational level dramatically reduces the differences between accidents, helps enterprises quickly identify risk factors, and prevents accidents. This method can effectively prevent accidents and provide helpful guidance for the safety management of chemical enterprises.

Taking precautions in advance: a lower level of activities of daily living may be associated with a higher likelihood of memory-related diseases

Introduction

Memory-related diseases (MDs) pose a significant healthcare challenge globally, and early detection is essential for effective intervention. This study investigates the potential of Activities of Daily Living (ADL) as a clinical diagnostic indicator for MDs. Utilizing data from the 2018 national baseline survey of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), encompassing 10,062 Chinese individuals aged 45 or older, we assessed ADL using the Barthel Index (BI) and correlated it with the presence of MDs. Statistical analysis, supplemented by machine learning algorithms (Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, and Logistic Regression), was employed to elucidate the relationship between ADL and MDs.

Background

MDs represent a significant public health concern, necessitating early detection and intervention to mitigate their impact on individuals and society. Identifying reliable clinical diagnostic signs for MDs is imperative. ADL have garnered attention as a potential marker. This study aims to rigorously analyze clinical data and validate machine learning algorithms to ascertain if ADL can serve as an indicator of MDs.

Methods

Data from the 2018 national baseline survey of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) were employed, encompassing responses from 10,062 Chinese individuals aged 45 or older. ADL was assessed using the BI, while the presence of MDs was determined through health report questions. Statistical analysis was executed using SPSS 25.0, and machine learning algorithms, including Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree Learning (DT), and Logistic Regression (LR), were implemented using Python 3.10.2.

Results

Population characteristics analysis revealed that the average BI score for individuals with MDs was 70.88, significantly lower than the average score of 87.77 in the control group. Pearson's correlation analysis demonstrated a robust negative association (r = -0.188, p < 0.001) between ADL and MDs. After adjusting for covariates such as gender, age, smoking status, drinking status, hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia, the negative relationship between ADL and MDs remained statistically significant (B = -0.002, β = -0.142, t = -14.393, 95% CI = -0.002, -0.001, p = 0.000). The application of machine learning models further confirmed the predictive accuracy of ADL for MDs, with area under the curve (AUC) values as follows: SVM-AUC = 0.69, DT-AUC = 0.715, LR-AUC = 0.7. Comparative analysis of machine learning outcomes with and without the BI underscored the BI's role in enhancing predictive abilities, with the DT model demonstrating superior performance.

Conclusion

This study establishes a robust negative correlation between ADL and MDs through comprehensive statistical analysis and machine learning algorithms. The results validate ADL as a promising diagnostic indicator for MDs, with enhanced predictive accuracy when coupled with the Barthel Index. Lower levels of ADL are associated with an increased likelihood of developing memory-related diseases, underscoring the clinical relevance of ADL assessment in early disease detection.

Occupational Injury Risk Mitigation: Machine Learning Approach and Feature Optimization for Smart Workplace Surveillance

Forecasting the severity of occupational injuries shall be all industries' top priority. The use of machine learning is theoretically valuable to assist the predictive analysis, thus, this study attempts to propose a feature-optimized predictive model for anticipating occupational injury severity. A public database of 66,405 occupational injury records from OSHA is analyzed using five sets of machine learning models: Support Vector Machine, K-Nearest Neighbors, Naïve Bayes, Decision Tree, and Random Forest. For model comparison, Random Forest outperformed other models with higher accuracy and F1-score. Therefore, it highlighted the potential of ensemble learning as a more accurate prediction model in the field of occupational injury. In constructing the model, this study also proposed the feature optimization technique that revealed the three most important features; 'nature of injury', 'type of event', and 'affected body part' in developing model. The accuracy of the Random Forest model was improved by 0.5% or 0.895 and 0.954 for the prediction of hospitalization and amputation, respectively by redeveloping and optimizing the model with hyperparameter tuning. The feature optimization is essential in providing insight knowledge to the Safety and Health Practitioners for future injury corrective and preventive strategies. This study has shown promising potential for smart workplace surveillance.

Retrospective External Validation of the Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) to Predict In-hospital Mortality in Adults with Nonhypoxic Status Epilepticus: A Machine Learning Analysis

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to validate the value of the Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) in the prediction of the risk of in-hospital mortality in patients with nonhypoxic status epilepticus (SE) using a machine learning analysis.

METHODS

We included consecutive patients with nonhypoxic SE (aged ≥ 16 years) admitted from 2013 to 2021 at the Modena Academic Hospital. A decision tree analysis was performed using in-hospital mortality as a dependent variable and the STESS predictors as input variables. We evaluated the accuracy of STESS in predicting in-hospital mortality using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) with 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

Among 629 patients with SE, the in-hospital mortality rate was 23.4% (147 of 629). The median STESS in the entire cohort was 2.9 (SD 1.6); it was lower in surviving compared with deceased patients (2.7, SD 1.5 versus 3.9, SD 1.6; p < 0.001). Of deceased patients, 82.3% (121 of 147) had scores of 3-6, whereas 17.7% (26 of 147) had scores of 0-2 (p < 0.001). STESS was accurate in predicting mortality, with an AUROC of 0.688 (95% CI 0.641-0.734) only slightly reduced after bootstrap resampling. The most significant predictor was the seizure type, followed by age and level of consciousness at SE onset. Nonconvulsive SE in coma and age ≥ 65 years predicted a higher risk of mortality, whereas generalized convulsive SE and age < 65 years were associated with a lower risk of death. The decision tree analysis using STESS variables correctly classified 90% of survivors and 34% of nonsurvivors after the SE, with an overall risk of error of 23.1%.

CONCLUSIONS

This validation study using a machine learning system showed that STESS is a valuable prognostic tool. The score appears particularly accurate and effective in identifying patients who are alive at discharge (high negative predictive value), whereas it has a lower predictive value for in-hospital mortality.

Machine learning validation through decision tree analysis of the Epidemiology-Based Mortality Score in Status Epilepticus

OBJECTIVE

This study was undertaken to validate the accuracy of the Epidemiology-Based Mortality Score in Status Epilepticus (EMSE) in predicting the risk of death at 30 days in a large cohort of patients with status epilepticus (SE) using a machine learning system.

METHODS

We included consecutive patients with SE admitted from 2013 to 2021 at Modena Academic Hospital. A decision tree analysis was performed using the 30-day mortality as a dependent variable and the EMSE predictors as input variables. We evaluated the accuracy of EMSE in predicting 30-day mortality using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC), with 95% confidence interval (CI). We performed a subgroup analysis on nonhypoxic SE.

RESULTS

A total of 698 patients with SE were included, with a 30-day mortality of 28.9% (202/698). The mean EMSE value in the entire population was 57.1 (SD = 36.3); it was lower in surviving compared to deceased patients (47.1, SD = 31.7 vs. 81.9, SD = 34.8; p < .001). The EMSE was accurate in predicting 30-day mortality, with an AUC ROC of .782 (95% CI = .747-.816). Etiology was the most relevant predictor, followed by age, electroencephalogram (EEG), and EMSE comorbidity group B. The decision tree analysis using EMSE variables correctly predicted the risk of mortality in 77.9% of cases; the prediction was accurate in 85.7% of surviving and in 58.9% of deceased patients within 30 days after SE. In nonhypoxic SE, the most relevant predictor was age, followed by EEG, and EMSE comorbidity group B; the prediction was correct in 78.9% of all cases (89.6% in survivors and 46.1% in nonsurvivors).

SIGNIFICANCE

This validation study using a machine learning analysis shows that the EMSE is a valuable prognostic tool, and appears particularly accurate and effective in identifying patients with 30-day survival, whereas its performance in predicting 30-day mortality is lower and needs to be further improved.

Advancing safety analytics: A diagnostic framework for assessing system readiness within occupational safety and health

Big data and analytics have shown promise in predicting safety incidents and identifying preventative measures directed towards specific risk variables. However, the safety industry is lagging in big data utilization due to various obstacles, which may include lack of data readiness (e.g., disparate databases, missing data, low validity) and personnel competencies. This paper provides a primer on the application of big data to safety. We then describe a safety analytics readiness assessment framework that highlights system requirements and the challenges that safety professionals may encounter in meeting these requirements. The proposed framework suggests that safety analytics readiness depends on (a) the quality of the data available, (b) organizational norms around data collection, scaling, and nomenclature, (c) foundational infrastructure, including technological platforms and skills required for data collection, storage, and analysis of health and safety metrics, and (d) measurement culture, or the emergent social patterns between employees, data acquisition, and analytic processes. A safety-analytics readiness assessment can assist organizations with understanding current capabilities so measurement systems can be matured to accommodate more advanced analytics for the ultimate purpose of improving decisions that mitigate injury and incidents.

Trends in Catastrophic Occupational Incidents among Electrical Contractors, 2007-2013

This study used methodologies of descriptive and quantitative statistics to identify the contributing factors most affecting occupational accident outcomes among electrical contracting enterprises, given an accident occurred. Accident reports were collected from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration's fatality and catastrophe database. To ensure the reliability of the data, the team manually codified more than 600 incidents through a comprehensive content analysis using injury-classification standards. Inclusive of both fatal and non-fatal injuries, the results showed that most accidents happened in nonresidential buildings, new construction, and small projects (i.e., $50,000 or less). The main source of injuries manifested in parts and materials (46%), followed by tools, instruments, and equipment (19%), and structure and surfaces (16%). The most frequent types of injuries were fractures (31%), electrocutions (27%), and electrical burns (14%); the main injured body parts were upper extremities (25%), head (23%), and body system (18%). Among non-fatal cases, falls (37%), exposure to electricity (36%), and contact with objects (19%) caused most injuries; among fatal cases, exposure to electricity was the leading cause of death (50%), followed by falls (28%) and contact with objects (19%). The analysis also investigated the impact of several accident factors on the degree of injuries and found significant effects from such factors such as project type, source of injury, cause of injury, injured part of body, nature of injury, and eventtype. In other words, the statistical probability of a fatal accident-given an accident occurrence-changes significantly based on the degree of these factors. The results of this study, as depicted in the proposed decision tree model, revealed that the most important factor for predicting the nature of injury (electrical or non-electrical) is: whether the source of injury is parts and materials; followed by whether the source of injury is tools, instruments, and equipment. In other words, in predicting (with a 94.31% accuracy) the nature of injury as electrical or non-electrical, whether the source of injury is parts and materials and whether the source of injury is tools, instruments, and equipment are very important. Seven decision rules were derived from the proposed decision tree model. Beyond these outcomes, the described methodology contributes to the accident-analysis body of knowledge by providing a framework for codifying data from accident reports to facilitate future analysis and modeling attempts to subsequently mitigate more injuries in other fields.

Management of imported malaria cases and healthcare institutions in central China, 2012-2017: application of decision tree analysis

Background

Imported malaria has been an important challenge for China. Fatality rates from malaria increased in China, particularly in Henan Province, primarily due to malpractice and misdiagnoses in healthcare institutions, and the level of imported malaria. This study aims to investigate the relationship between the state of diagnosis and subsequent complications among imported malaria cases at healthcare institutions, based on malaria surveillance data in Henan Province from 2012 to 2017.

Methods

A retrospective descriptive analysis was performed using data from the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhengzhou City, the capital of Henan Province. A decision tree method was exploited to provide valuable insight into the correlation between imported malaria cases and healthcare institutions.

Results

From 2012 to 2017, there were 371 imported malaria cases, mostly in males aged between 20 and 50 years, including 319 Plasmodium falciparum cases. First visits of 32.3%, 19.9% and 15.9% malaria cases for treatment were to provincial, municipal and county healthcare institutions, respectively. The time interval between onset and initial diagnosis of 284 cases (76.5%) and the time interval between initial diagnosis and final diagnosis of 197 cases (53.1%) was no more than 72 h. An apparent trend was found that there were notably fewer patients misdiagnosed at first visit to healthcare institutions of a higher administrative level; 12.5% of cases were misdiagnosed in provincial healthcare institutions compared to 98.2% in private clinics, leading to fewer complications at healthcare institutions of higher administrative level due to correct initial diagnosis. In the tree model, the rank of healthcare facilities for initial diagnosis, and number of days between onset and initial diagnosis, made a major contribution to the classification of initial diagnosis, which subsequently became the most significant factor influencing complications developed in the second tree model. The classification accuracy were 82.2 and 74.1%, respectively for the tree models of initial diagnosis and complications developed.

Conclusion

Inadequate seeking medical care by imported malaria patients, and insufficient capacity to diagnose malaria by healthcare institutions of lower administrative level were identified as major factors influencing complications of imported malaria cases in Henan Province. The lack of connection between uncommon imported malaria cases and superior medical resources was found to be the crucial challenge. A web-based system combined with WeChat to target imported malaria cases was proposed to cope with the challenge.