Association of direct bilirubin level with postoperative outcome in critically ill postoperative patients

Prognostic factors for critically ill surgical patients with unplanned intensive care unit readmission: Developing a novel predictive scoring model for predicting readmission

BACKGROUND

Unplanned readmission to the surgical intensive care unit has been demonstrated to worsen patient outcomes. Our objective was to identify risk factors and outcomes associated with unplanned surgical intensive care unit readmission and to develop a predictive scoring model to identify patients at high risk of readmission.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed patients admitted to the surgical intensive care unit (2020-2021) and categorized them as either with or without unplanned readmission.

RESULTS

Of 1,112 patients in the derivation cohort, 76 (6.8%) experienced unplanned surgical intensive care unit readmission, with sepsis being the leading cause of readmission (35.5%). Patients who were readmitted had significantly higher in-hospital mortality rates than those who were not. Multivariate analysis identified congestive heart failure, high Sequential Organ Failure Assessment-Hepatic score, use of carbapenem during surgical intensive care unit stay, as well as factors before surgical intensive care unit discharge such as inadequate glycemic control, positive fluid balance, low partial pressure of oxygen in arterial blood/fraction of inspired oxygen ratio, and receipt of total parenteral nutrition as independent predictors for unplanned readmission. The scoring model developed using these predictors exhibited good discrimination between readmitted and non-readmitted patients, with an area under the curve of 0.74. The observed rates of unplanned readmission for scores of <4 points and ≥4 points were 4% and 20.2% (P < .001), respectively. The model also demonstrated good performance in the validation cohort, with an area under the curve of 0.74 and 19% observed unplanned readmission rate for scores ≥4 points.

CONCLUSION

Besides congestive heart failure, clinicians should meticulously re-evaluate critical variables such as the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment-Hepatic score, partial pressure of oxygen in arterial blood/fraction of inspired oxygen ratio, glycemic control, and fluid status before releasing the patient from the surgical intensive care unit. It is crucial to determine the reasons for using carbapenems during surgical intensive care unit stay and the causes for the inability to discontinue total parenteral nutrition before discharging the patient from the surgical intensive care unit.

Prevalence and Outcome of Sepsis: Mortality and Prolonged Intensive Care Unit Stay among Sepsis Patients Admitted to a Tertiary Centre in Malaysia

Background

Sepsis and septic shock are the leading causes of critical care-related mortality worldwide. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of sepsis, its intensive care unit (ICU) mortality rate and the factors associated with both ICU mortality and prolonged stay.

Methods

A prospective cohort study was conducted from January 2019 to December 2019 with adult patients presenting evidence of sepsis who were admitted to the ICU. Parameters were assessed in the ICU to determine the association with all-cause ICU mortality and prolonged stay.

Results

Out of 607 adults, 292 with sepsis were admitted to the ICU in 2019, with a mean age of 50.98 (standard deviation [SD] = 17.75) years old. There was, thus, a 48% incidence of sepsis. Mortality was observed in 78 patients (mortality rate = 26.7%) (95% confidence interval [CI]: 21.7, 32.2). Patients with higher Glasgow coma scale (GCS) scores had lower odds of ICU mortality (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.82, 0.98; P = 0.019), while patients with higher sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores had higher odds (adjusted OR = 1.22; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.35; P < 0.001). Eighty patients (37.4%) who survived had prolonged ICU stays (95% CI: 30.9, 44.2). Patients with higher albumin levels had lower odds of a prolonged ICU stay (adjusted OR = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.90, 0.98; P = 0.006) and patients on renal replacement therapy had higher odds of a prolonged ICU stay (adjusted OR = 1.25; 95% CI: 1.74, 7.12; P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Our study identified a sepsis prevalence of 48% and an ICU mortality rate of 26.7% among adult patients admitted to the ICU. GCS and SOFA scores were the most important factors associated with ICU mortality.

A data-driven medical knowledge discovery framework to predict the length of ICU stay for patients undergoing craniotomy based on electronic medical records

Craniotomy is an invasive operation with great trauma and many complications, and patients undergoing craniotomy should enter the ICU for monitoring and treatment. Based on electronic medical records (EMR), the discovery of high-risk multi-biomarkers rather than a single biomarker that may affect the length of ICU stay (LoICUS) can provide better decision-making or intervention suggestions for clinicians in ICU to reduce the high medical expenses of these patients and the medical burden as much as possible. The multi-biomarkers or medical decision rules can be discovered according to some interpretable predictive models, such as tree-based methods. Our study aimed to develop an interpretable framework based on real-world EMRs to predict the LoICUS and discover some high-risk medical rules of patients undergoing craniotomy. The EMR datasets of patients undergoing craniotomy in ICU were separated into preoperative and postoperative features. The paper proposes a framework called Rules-TabNet (RTN) based on the datasets. RTN is a rule-based classification model. High-risk medical rules can be discovered from RTN, and a risk analysis process is implemented to validate the rules discovered by RTN. The performance of the postoperative model was considerably better than that of the preoperative model. The postoperative RTN model had a better performance compared with the baseline model and achieved an accuracy of 0.76 and an AUC of 0.85 for the task. Twenty-four key decision rules that may have impact on the LoICUS of patients undergoing craniotomy are discovered and validated by our framework. The proposed postoperative RTN model in our framework can precisely predict whether the patients undergoing craniotomy are hospitalized for too long (more than 15 days) in the ICU. We also discovered and validated some key medical decision rules from our framework.

Routine laboratory parameters in patients with necrotizing pancreatitis by the time of operative pancreatic debridement: Food for thought

BACKGROUND

Timing of invasive intervention such as operative pancreatic debridement (OPD) in patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP) is linked to the degree of encapsulation in necrotic collections and controlled inflammation. Additional markers of these processes might assist decision-making on the timing of surgical intervention. In our opinion, it is logical to search for such markers among routine laboratory parameters traditionally used in ANP patients, considering simplicity and cost-efficacy of routine laboratory methodologies.

AIM

To evaluate laboratory variables in ANP patients in the preoperative period for the purpose of their use in the timing of surgery.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of routine laboratory parameters in 53 ANP patients undergoing OPD between 2017 and 2020 was performed. Dynamic changes of routine hematological and biochemical indices were examined in the preoperative period. Patients were divided into survivors and non-survivors. Survivors were divided into subgroups with short and long post-surgery length of stay (LOS) in hospital. Correlation analysis was used to evaluate association of laboratory variables with LOS. Logistic regression was used to assess risk factors for patient mortality.

RESULTS

Seven patients (15%) with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and 46 patients (85%) with moderately SAP (MSAP) were included in the study. Median age of participants was 43.2 years; 33 (62.3%) were male. Pancreatitis etiology included biliary (15%), alcohol (80%), and idiopathic/other (5%). Median time from diagnosis to OPD was ≥ 4 wk. Median postoperative LOS was at the average of 53 d. Mortality was 19%. Progressive increase of platelet count in preoperative period was associated with shortened LOS. Increased aspartate aminotransferase and direct bilirubin (DB) levels the day before the OPD along with weak progressive decrease of DB in preoperative period were reliable predictors for ANP patient mortality.

CONCLUSION

Multifactorial analysis of dynamic changes of routine laboratory variables can be useful for a person-tailored timing of surgical intervention in ANP patients.

Risk factors and mortality associated with multidrug-resistant gram-negative bacterial infection in adult patients with abdominal surgery

BACKGROUND

Multidrug-resistant (MDR) gram-negative bacterial (GNB) infections remain a significant cause of morbidity and mortality among surgical patients. The objective of our study was to recognize the risk factors for MDR GNB infection in patients with abdominal surgery and determine the predictors independently associated with death.

METHODS

From 2010 to 2017, a retrospective cohort study was conducted among patients with abdominal surgery admitted in surgical intensive care unit (ICU). Patients with GNB infections were included for analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 364 patients with abdominal surgery experienced GNB infections, among them, 117 (32.1%) were MDR GNB infection. Of 133 MDR GNB isolates, the most frequent isolate was Escherichia coli (45.1%). Patients with MDR GNB infection had significantly longer ventilator days and hospital stay, as well as higher 30-day and in-hospital mortality compared to non-MDR GNB patients. Multivariable analysis showed longer length of pre-ICU stay, surgical re-exploration, receipt of group 2 carbapenems (e.g. imipenem, meropenem and doripenem) and fluoroquinolones, and higher total bilirubin were independent risk factors for the acquisition of MDR GNB infection. Predictors for 30-day mortality among patients with MDR GNB infection were chronic kidney disease, receipt of group 2 carbapenems and inappropriate empirical antimicrobial therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides important information about the risk factors for subsequent MDR GNB infection and 30-day mortality among the patients with abdominal surgery.

[Effects of cholestasis and hypoxic hepatitis on prognosis of ICU patients: a retrospective study based on MIMIC Ⅲ database]

OBJECTIVE

Abnormalities of liver-related indices are common in ICU patients, but the effects of cholestasis and hypoxic hepatitis in critically ill patients remains unclarified. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of cholestasis and hypoxic liver dysfunction on the prognosis of ICU patients.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted based on the data of patients admitted to the ICU for the first time between 2001 and 2011 archived in the MIMIC-Ⅲ database. The patients were divided into cholestasis, hypoxic hepatitis and control groups, and their 28-day case fatality rate as the primary outcome was compared among the groups.

RESULTS

A total of 5852 ICU patients were included in the analysis. The incidence of cholestasis and hypoxic liver dysfunction was 31.9% (1869/5852) and 17.9% (1046/5852), respectively. There was no significant difference in 28-day case fatality rate between cholestasis group and the control group. Compared with the control group, the patients with hypoxic hepatitis had a significantly higher 28-day case fatality rate (46% vs 35%, P &lt; 0.01), a higher hospital case fatality rate (40% vs 31%, P &lt; 0.01), and a higher ICU case fatality rate (35.7% vs 22.2%, P &lt; 0.01). Logistic regression analysis showed that lactic acid (LAC), aspartate transaminase (AST), and international standard ratio (INR) were independent risk factors for 28-day case fatality rate.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of cholestatic liver dysfunction is higher than that of hypoxic hepatitis, but it does not increase the 28-day case fatality rate of the ICU patients, suggesting that cholestatic liver dysfunction may be the early adaptation of the liver to critical diseases.