HIV epidemic drivers in South Africa: A model-based evaluation of factors accounting for inter-provincial differences in HIV prevalence and incidence trends

HIV incidence and factors associated with HIV risk among people who inject drugs engaged with harm-reduction programmes in four provinces in South Africa: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

HIV incidence among people who inject drugs in South Africa has never been estimated. We aimed to estimate HIV incidence and associations with risk and protective factors among people who inject drugs engaged with harm-reduction services.

METHODS

For this retrospective cohort study we used programmatic data collected from April 1, 2019, to March 30, 2022, by the Networking HIV and AIDS Community of South Africa, which offers harm-reduction services and HIV testing to people who inject drugs. During this 3-year period, services were delivered through drop-in centres and outreach in four South African provinces: Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape, and Eastern Cape. Our cohort comprised people who inject drugs who did not self-report being HIV positive, were HIV negative at first testing, and had at least one follow-up test. Data were collected by outreach teams. We estimated HIV incidence, assuming seroconversions occurred at the midpoint between the last negative test and first positive test. We assessed associations between HIV seroconversion risk and several factors with Cox regression models, including sociodemographic characteristics, primary drugs used, uptake of interventions (ie, number of harm-reduction packs and opioid agonist treatment [OAT]), and HIV testing interval.

FINDINGS

Of 31 182 people who inject drugs accessing harm-reduction services, 20 955 (including 3409 self-reporting being HIV positive) were not tested for HIV. Of 10 227 people who tested at least once, 8152 were HIV negative at first test and of these, 2402 had at least two tests and formed the study cohort. Overall, 283 (11·8%) people who inject drugs acquired HIV over 2306·1 person-years. HIV incidence was higher in Gauteng (16·7 per 100 person-years; 95% CI 14·5-19·1) and KwaZulu-Natal (14·9 per 100 person-years; 11·3-19·3), than in the Eastern Cape (5·0 per 100 person-years; 2·3-9·6) and Western Cape (3·2 per 100 person-years; 1·9-4·9). In multivariable Cox models, HIV acquisition risk varied by race, primary drugs used, and interval between HIV tests. Additionally, people who injected drugs and received OAT in the past year had lower HIV risk (adjusted hazard ratio 0·48; 95% CI 0·22-1·03) than people who did not receive OAT, although the 95% CI was wide and crossed the null.

INTERPRETATION

Our study highlights a pressing need for scale-up of HIV prevention strategies, particularly opioid agonist treatment, for people who inject drugs in South Africa. Dedicated investments are needed to develop monitoring systems for HIV incidence, risk behaviours, and uptake of interventions to ensure effective and equitable programmes.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, and Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria.

The impact of antiretroviral treatment and child-focused unconditional cash transfers on child mortality

Although there is sufficient evidence in the epidemiological literature that antiretroviral treatment (ART) reduces child mortality, there is limited evidence of its effect in the socio-economic determinants of child mortality literature. Furthermore, evidence on the effect of child focused unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) on child mortality is limited, especially in the African context. Using South Africa's provincial level data over the period 2001 to 2019, we evaluate the effect of ART and child focused UCTs on child mortality. We use the two-stage instrumental variable mean group estimator. We find that ART reduces child mortality. Moreover, we find an inverted U-shaped non-linear relationship between UCTs and child mortality that is contingent to the level of cash transfer coverage. Our analyses also reveal that UCTs improve the effect of ART on child mortality by enhancing access and adherence to treatment. While the focus of our analyses was on the child mortality effects of ART and UCTs, our findings reaffirm the well-documented impacts of factors such as public health expenditure, HIV/AIDS, female education, and health worker density on child mortality. Collectively, the combination of high ART and UCTs coverage, increased public health expenditure, enhanced female education, and improved health worker density, represents value for money for policymakers and funders. These areas should be prioritised to improve child well-being.

A comparison of the surgical outcomes of ventriculoperitoneal versus lumbar peritoneal shunts in the management of intracranial hypertension secondary to cryptococcal meningitis in HIV infected adult patients

OBJECTIVE

Cryptococcal meningitis (CM), an AIDS-defining illness, significantly impacts morbidity and mortality. This study aims to compare complications arising from ventriculoperitoneal shunt (VPS) and lumbar peritoneal shunt (LPS) procedures used to manage refractory intracranial hypertension (IH) secondary to CM in HIV-infected patients.

METHODS

Retrospective data were collected from January 2003 to January 2015 for HIV-infected adults diagnosed with refractory IH secondary to CM and subsequently shunted. Demographics, clinical characteristics, antiretroviral therapy, laboratory findings (including CD4 count and CSF results), CT brain scan results, shunt-related complications, and mortality were compared between VPS and LPS groups.

RESULTS

This study included 83 patients, with 60 (72%) undergoing VPS and 23 (28%) receiving LPS. Mean ages were comparable between VPS (32.5) and LPS (32.2) groups (p = 0.89). Median CD4+ counts were 76 cells/µl (IQR= 30-129) in VPS versus 54 cells/µl (IQR= 31-83) in LPS (p=0.45). VPS group showed a higher mean haemoglobin of 11.5 g/dl compared to 9.9 g/dl in the LPS group (p=0.001). CT brain scans showed hydrocephalus in 55 VPS and 13 LPS patients respectively. Shunt complications were observed in 17 (28%) VPS patients versus 10 (43.5%) LPS patients (p=0.5). Patients developing shunt sepsis in the VPS group exhibited a median CD4+ count of 117 cells/µl (IQR= 76-129) versus 48 cells/µl (IQR= 31- 66) in the LPS group (p=0.03). Early shunt malfunction occurred more frequently in the LPS group compared to VPS group (p=0.044). The mean hospital stay was 6.2 days for VPS versus 5.4 days for LPS patients (p=0.9). In-hospital mortality was 6%, occurring in three VPS and two LPS patients respectively.

CONCLUSION

Shunting procedures remain important surgical interventions for refractory IH secondary to HIV-related CM. However, cautious consideration is warranted for patients with CD4 counts below 200 cells/µL due to increased shunt complications. This study suggests a trend toward higher complication rates in patients undergoing LPS insertion.

Exploring Determinants of HIV/AIDS Self-Testing Uptake in South Africa Using Generalised Linear Poisson and Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression

Increased HIV/AIDS testing is of paramount importance in controlling the HIV/AIDS pandemic and subsequently saving lives. Despite progress in HIV/AIDS testing programmes, most people are still reluctant to test and thus are still unaware of their status. Understanding the factors associated with uptake levels of HIV/AIDS self-testing requires knowledge of people's perceptions and attitudes, thus informing evidence-based decision making. Using the South African National HIV Prevalence, HIV Incidence, Behaviour and Communication Survey of 2017 (SABSSM V), this study assessed the efficacy of Generalised Linear Poisson Regression (GLPR) and Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR) in modelling the spatial dependence and non-stationary relationships of HIV/AIDS self-testing uptake and covariates. The models were calibrated at the district level across South Africa. Results showed a slightly better performance of GWPR (pseudo R² = 0.91 and AICc = 390) compared to GLPR (pseudo R² = 0.88 and AICc = 2552). Estimates of local intercepts derived from GWPR exhibited differences in HIV/AIDS self-testing uptake. Overall, the output of this study displays interesting findings on the levels of spatial heterogeneity of factors associated with HIV/AIDS self-testing uptake across South Africa, which calls for district-specific policies to increase awareness of the need for HIV/AIDS self-testing.

Overview

BACKGROUND

South Africa (SA) faces multiple health challenges. Quantifying the contribution of modifiable risk factors can be used to identify and prioritise areas of concern for population health and opportunities for health promotion and disease prevention interventions.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the attributable burden of 18 modifiable risk factors for 2000, 2006 and 2012.

METHODS

Comparative risk assessment (CRA), a standardised and systematic approach, was used to estimate the attributable burden of 18 risk factors. Risk exposure estimates were sourced from local data, and meta-regressions were used to model the parameters, depending on the availability of data. Risk-outcome pairs meeting the criteria for convincing or probable evidence were assessed using relative risks against a theoretical minimum risk exposure level to calculate either a potential impact fraction or population attributable fraction (PAF). Relative risks were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) study as well as published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden was calculated for each risk factor for 2000, 2006 and 2012 by applying the PAF to estimates of deaths and years of life lost from the Second South African National Burden of Disease Study (SANBD2). Uncertainty analyses were performed using Monte Carlo simulation, and age-standardised rates were calculated using the World Health Organization standard population.

RESULTS

Unsafe sex was the leading risk factor across all years, accounting for one in four DALYs (26.6%) of the estimated 20.6 million DALYs in 2012. The top five leading risk factors for males and females remained the same between 2000 and 2012. For males, the leading risks were (in order of descending rank): unsafe sex; alcohol consumption; interpersonal violence; tobacco smoking; and high systolic blood pressure; while for females the leading risks were unsafe sex; interpersonal violence; high systolic blood pressure; high body mass index; and high fasting plasma glucose. Since 2000, the attributable age-standardised death rates decreased for most risk factors. The largest decrease was for household air pollution (-41.8%). However, there was a notable increase in the age-standardised death rate for high fasting plasma glucose (44.1%), followed by ambient air pollution (7%).

CONCLUSION

This study reflects the continued dominance of unsafe sex and interpersonal violence during the study period, as well as the combined effects of poverty and underdevelopment with the emergence of cardiometabolic-related risk factors and ambient air pollution as key modifiable risk factors in SA. Despite reductions in the attributable burden of many risk factors, the study reveals significant scope for health promotion and disease prevention initiatives and provides an important tool for policy makers to influence policy and programme interventions in the country.

Examining differentials in HIV transmission risk behaviour and its associated factors among men in Southern African countries

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), particularly Southern and East Africa, has the highest AIDS deaths and HIV-infected people in the world. Even though considerable effort has been made over the years to study HIV transmission risk behaviours of different population groups in SSA, there is little evidence of studies that have looked at pooled effects of associated HIV risk factors among men, particularly in Southern Africa. Thus, this study sought to fill this gap in knowledge by investigating the variations in HIV risk behaviours among men in the region. The study analysed cross-sectional data based on the most recent country Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for six countries, namely Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The study employed multivariate logistic regression models on a pooled dataset and individual country data to examine the relative risk of education and other factors on HIV risk behaviour indicators. It considered: (i) condom use during high risk-sex, (ii) multiple sexual partnerships, and (iii) HIV testing among men aged 15-59 years. Findings show that the proportion of men who engaged in HIV transmission risk behaviour was high in Southern Africa. Two-thirds of men reported non-use of a condom during last sex with most recent partners while 22% engaged in multiple sexual partnerships. The percentage of men who used condoms during sex with most recent partners ranged from 18% in Mozambique to 58% in Namibia. Age, residence, marital status and household wealth status were associated with HIV risk factors in the region. The study has established country variations in terms of how individual factors influence HIV transmission risk behaviour among men. Results show that the level of education was associated with increased use of condoms, only in Zambia and Mozambique. Delay in starting a sexual debut was associated with reduced odds of having multiple sexual partnerships in the region. Suggesting the need to strengthen comprehensive sexuality education among young men in school, to promote social behaviour change during adolescence age. The study presents important results to inform direct health policy, programme and government action to address HIV prevalence in the Southern region of Africa.

Evaluating whole HIV-1 genome sequence for estimation of incidence and migration in a rural South African community

Background: South Africa has the largest number of people living with HIV (PLWHIV) in the world, with HIV prevalence and transmission patterns varying greatly between provinces. Transmission between regions is still poorly understood, but phylodynamics of HIV-1 evolution can reveal how many infections are attributable to contacts outside a given community. We analysed whole genome HIV-1 genetic sequences to estimate incidence and the proportion of transmissions between communities in Hlabisa, a rural South African community. Methods: We separately analysed HIV-1 for gag, pol, and env genes sampled from 2,503 PLWHIV. We estimated time-scaled phylogenies by maximum likelihood under a molecular clock model. Phylodynamic models were fitted to time-scaled trees to estimate transmission rates, effective number of infections, incidence through time, and the proportion of infections imported to Hlabisa. We also partitioned time-scaled phylogenies with significantly different distributions of coalescent times. Results: Phylodynamic analyses showed similar trends in epidemic growth rates between 1980 and 1990. Model-based estimates of incidence and effective number of infections were consistent across genes. Parameter estimates with gag were generally smaller than those estimated with pol and env. When estimating the proportions of new infections in Hlabisa from immigration or transmission from external sources, our posterior median estimates were 85% (95% credible interval (CI) = 78%-92%) for gag, 62% (CI = 40%-78%) for pol, and 77% (CI = 58%-90%) for env in 2015. Analysis of phylogenetic partitions by gene showed that most close global reference sequences clustered within a single partition. This suggests local evolving epidemics or potential unmeasured heterogeneity in the population. Conclusions: We estimated consistent epidemic dynamic trends for gag, pol and env genes using phylodynamic models. There was a high probability that new infections were not attributable to endogenous transmission within Hlabisa, suggesting high inter-connectedness between communities in rural South Africa.

COVID-19 and all-cause mortality in South Africa – the hidden deaths in the first four waves

Accurate statistics are essential for policy guidance and decisions. However, the reported number of cases and COVID-19 deaths are known to be biased due to under-ascertainment of SARS-CoV-2 and incomplete reporting of deaths. Making use of death data from the National Population Register has made it possible to track in near-real time the number of excess deaths experienced in South Africa. These data reveal considerable provincial differences in the impact of COVID-19, likely associated with differences in population age structure and density, patterns of social mixing, and differences in the prevalence of known comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. As the waves unfolded, levels of natural immunity together with vaccination began to reduce levels of mortality. Mortality rates during the second (Beta) wave were much higher than mortality in the third (Delta) wave, which were higher than in either the first or the fourth (Omicron) waves. However, the cumulative death toll during the second (Beta) wave was of a similar order of magnitude as that during the third (Delta) wave due to the longer duration of the Delta wave. Near-real time monitoring of all-cause deaths should be refined to provide more granular level information to enable district-level policy support. In the meanwhile, there is an urgent need to re-engineer the civil registration and vital statistics system to enable more timely access to cause of death information for public health actions.

Barriers to the Implementation of the HIV Universal Test and Treat Strategy in Selected Primary Care Facilities in South Africa's Eastern Cape Province

Background:

The South African government implemented the Universal Test and Treat (UTT) approach to treating HIV in the second half of 2016. As part of a contribution to the successful implementation of UTT, this study looked at barriers to implementation of UTT emanating from weaknesses of the health system in 2 Community Health Centers in South Africa’s Eastern Cape Province.

Methods:

This was a quantitative cross-sectional design which had both descriptive and analytical components. Convenience sampling was used to select and recruit 2 primary care facilities and 30 nurses. Self-administered questionnaires were used to solicit data from facility managers and nurses. In addition, a record review was used to access 6 months’ data for the period 1 October 2017 to 31 March 2018. Data were analyzed using Stata 14.1. Categorical data were presented using frequency and contingency tables. The 95% confidence interval (95% CI) is used for the precision of estimates and the P-value of statistical significance is P < .05.

Results:

Facilities were found to have poor leadership and governance; human resource challenges that include shortages, lack of skills and lack of developmental support; poorly resourced service delivery platforms and poor information management. Of the three 90-90-90 targets, health facilities only satisfactorily achieved the second 90 of initiating all who test positive for HIV within a week (93.1% or n = 288/307).

Conclusions:

This study has been able to identify potential barriers to the implementation of the UTT strategy at the selected facilities including the lack of structured programs in place to monitor performance of healthcare staff, knowledge gaps, and a lack of good clinical governance practices as evidenced by the lack of customized protocols and Standard Operating Procedures.

Suicide Prevention in HIV Treatment Centres: Population Attributable Risk Analysis of Treating Common Mental Disorders

The aim was to establish the potential reduction in non-fatal suicidal behaviour (NFSB) that could be achieved by treating common mental disorders (CMDs) among persons receiving HIV treatment. Data were collected from antiretroviral therapy (ART) patients in South Africa (n = 688). Structured Clinical Interviews assessed CMDs and the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview assessed 1-month prevalence of NFSB and suicide risk. Population Attributable Risk (PAR) analysis established the potential reduction in prevalence of NFSB and suicide risk that could be achieved by treating CMDs, with the simplifying assumption of a causal relationship between psychopathology and suicidality. Treating CMDs could result in as much as a 63.9% proportional reduction in the prevalence of suicide ideation, 84.2% proportional reduction in the prevalence of suicide plan, and 63.4% proportional decrease in prevalence of suicide risk. There is potential to significantly reduce NFSB among ART patients. Pragmatic trials are needed to evaluate the effects of treating CMDs in HIV treatment centres.

Modelling of HIV prevention and treatment progress in five South African metropolitan districts

Globally, large proportions of HIV-positive populations live in cities. The Fast-Track cities project aims to advance progress toward elimination of HIV as a public health threat by accelerating the response in cities across the world. This study applies a well-established HIV transmission model to provide key HIV estimates for the five largest metropolitan districts in South Africa (SA): Cape Town, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Johannesburg and Tshwane. We calibrate the model to metro-specific data sources and estimate progress toward the 90-90-90 targets set by UNAIDS (90% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) diagnosed, 90% of those diagnosed on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral suppression in 90% of those on ART). We use the model to predict progress towards similarly defined 95-95-95 targets in 2030. In SA, 90.5% of PLHIV were diagnosed in 2018, with metro estimates ranging from 86% in Johannesburg to 92% in eThekwini. However, only 68.4% of HIV-diagnosed individuals nationally were on ART in 2018, with the proportion ranging from 56% in Tshwane to 73% in eThekwini. Fractions of ART users who were virally suppressed ranged from 77% in Ekurhuleni to 91% in eThekwini, compared to 86% in the whole country. All five metros are making good progress to reach diagnosis targets and all (with the exception of Ekurhuleni) are expected to reach viral suppression targets in 2020. However, the metros and South Africa face severe challenges in reaching the 90% ART treatment target.

Effect of HIV Infection and Antiretroviral Treatment on Pregnancy Rates in the Western Cape Province of South Africa

BACKGROUND

Previous studies suggest that untreated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is associated with a reduced incidence of pregnancy, but studies of the effect of antiretroviral treatment (ART) on pregnancy incidence have been inconsistent.

METHODS

Routine data from health services in the Western Cape province of South Africa were linked to identify pregnancies during 2007-2017 and maternal HIV records. The time from the first (index) pregnancy outcome date to the next pregnancy was modeled using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

During 2007-2017, 1 042 647 pregnancies were recorded. In all age groups, pregnancy incidence rates were highest in women who had started ART, lower in HIV-negative women, and lowest in ART-naive HIV-positive women. In multivariable analysis, after controlling for the most recent CD4+ T-cell count, pregnancy incidence rates in HIV-positive women receiving ART were higher than those in untreated HIV-positive women (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.59-1.67) and those in HIV-negative women.

CONCLUSION

Among women who have recently been pregnant, receipt of ART is associated with high rates of second pregnancy. Better integration of family planning into HIV care services is needed.

Strengthening measurement and performance of HIV prevention programmes

Indicators for the measurement of programmes for the primary prevention of HIV are less aligned than indicators for HIV treatment, which results in a high burden of data collection, often without a clear vision for its use. As new evidence becomes available, the opportunity arises to critically evaluate the way countries and global bodies monitor HIV prevention programmes by incorporating emerging data on the strength of the evidence linking various factors with HIV acquisition, and by working to streamline indicators across stakeholders to reduce burdens on health-care systems. Programmes are also using new approaches, such as targeting specific sexual networks that might require non-traditional approaches to measurement. Technological advances can support these new directions and provide opportunities to use real-time analytics and new data sources to more effectively understand and adapt HIV prevention programmes to reflect population movement, risks, and an evolving epidemic.

Challenges in estimating HIV prevalence trends and geographical variation in HIV prevalence using antenatal data: Insights from mathematical modelling

BACKGROUND

HIV prevalence data among pregnant women have been critical to estimating HIV trends and geographical patterns of HIV in many African countries. Although antenatal HIV prevalence data are known to be biased representations of HIV prevalence in the general population, mathematical models have made various adjustments to control for known sources of bias, including the effect of HIV on fertility, the age profile of pregnant women and sexual experience.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We assessed whether assumptions about antenatal bias affect conclusions about trends and geographical variation in HIV prevalence, using simulated datasets generated by an agent-based model of HIV and fertility in South Africa. Results suggest that even when controlling for age and other previously-considered sources of bias, antenatal bias in South Africa has not been constant over time, and trends in bias differ substantially by age. Differences in the average duration of infection explain much of this variation. We propose an HIV duration-adjusted measure of antenatal bias that is more stable, which yields higher estimates of HIV incidence in recent years and at older ages. Simpler measures of antenatal bias, which are not age-adjusted, yield estimates of HIV prevalence and incidence that are too high in the early stages of the HIV epidemic, and that are less precise. Antenatal bias in South Africa is substantially greater in urban areas than in rural areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Age-standardized approaches to defining antenatal bias are likely to improve precision in model-based estimates, and further recency adjustments increase estimates of HIV incidence in recent years and at older ages. Incompletely adjusting for changing antenatal bias may explain why previous model estimates overstated the early HIV burden in South Africa. New assays to estimate the fraction of HIV-positive pregnant women who are recently infected could play an important role in better estimating antenatal bias.

The geographic distribution of priority population groups for the elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in South Africa

Background

Women of reproductive age living with HIV (WRLHIV), HIV-positive pregnant women, adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) are key populations for eliminating mother-to-child of HIV (eMTCT) in South Africa. We describe the geographical distribution of WRLHIV, their pregnant counterparts and AGYW for risk-adjusted allocation of eMTCT interventions.

Methods

For the year 2018, we triangulated data from the Thembisa Model with five routine HIV-related and demographic data sources to determine the distribution of WRLHIV (15–49 years) and AGYW (15–24 years) nationally and by province. Data analysed included total population estimates, number of live-births, live-births to HIV-positive women, age-specific HIV prevalence rates, intrauterine (IU)-transmission rates and IU-case rates/100 000 live-births. IU-transmission rates and IU-case rates were calculated from de-duplicated routine HIV test-data for neonates (aged <7days). Data de-duplication was achieved by a patient-linking algorithm that uses probabilistic matching of demographics (name, surname, date of birth), supplemented by manual matching to account for spelling errors.

Results

There were 58 million people in South Africa in 2018. Females (all ages) constituted 51% of the population. Women of reproductive age constituted 27% and AGYW constituted 8% of the total population. WRLHIV, AGYW living with HIV and HIV-positive pregnant women accounted for 7%, 0.8% and 0.4% of the total population respectively. Gauteng was the most populous province followed by KwaZulu-Natal, with Western Cape and Eastern Cape in third and fourth positions. The distribution of WRLHIV and AGYW followed a similar trend. However, Mpumalanga and Limpopo provinces had higher proportions of WRLHIV and AGYW living with HIV ahead of Western Cape. KwaZulu-Natal had the highest number of live-births to HIV-positive women. The national IU-transmission rate of <1% translated into 241 cases/100 000. While provincial IU-case rates were fairly similar at 179–325, districts IU-case rates varied, ranging from 87–415 cases/100 000 live-births.

Conclusion

Findings suggest that the need for eMTCT interventions is greatest in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape and Eastern Cape. Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces may require more HIV prevention and family planning services because of high fertility rates, high number of WRLHIV and AGYW living with HIV. eMTCT will require robust viral load monitoring among WRLHIV, pregnant and breastfeeding women. The national laboratory database can provide this service near-real time.

"My partner was not fond of using condoms and I was not on contraception": understanding adolescent mothers' perspectives of sexual risk behaviour in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Background

Adolescent pregnancy has been a persistent area of interest and concern in the field of public health. The debate about adolescents’ sexual risk behaviour has also gained prominence due to findings that have demonstrated that adolescent girls between 15 and 19 years of age give birth to 16 million infants and account for 62% of new HIV infections in the Caribbean and African regions. Health compromising behaviours often develop in adolescence, yet the sexual and reproductive health of adolescent mothers is often marginalised in the healthcare field. The aim of this study was to explore adolescent mothers’ understanding of sexual risk behaviour.

Methods

The study employed a descriptive qualitative design. To collect the data, four focus group discussions were conducted with adolescent mothers aged 16–19 years. The eighteen adolescent mothers were recruited using purposive sampling technique from a hospital in the Ugu district in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Data were analysed using thematic analysis.

Results

The study revealed that decisions to engage in risky sexual behaviour is influenced by peer pressure, drugs and alcohol, sexual experimentation, myths about contraception, the media, poor parental supervision and power gender dynamics, poverty leading to transactional sex, the vulnerability of young girls, and the fear of partner rejection.

Conclusion

The findings of this study will contribute to a better understanding of adolescent mothers’ perspectives of sexual risk behaviour. In the subject matter of sexual and reproductive health, adolescents’ autonomy with respect to cultural and social recommendations should not be sidelined. Due to their vulnerability, adolescent women are exposed to transactional sex, and it is particularly due to poverty that adolescent women are driven into sexual relations with older men as a means of survival. Moreover, interventions to curb postpartum sexual risk behaviour are important to protect adolescent women and mothers against HIV/AIDS. The sexual and reproductive education of adolescent women should focus on resilience, negotiating skills, and protective decision making. Collaborative efforts to curb sexual risk taking by young women should be encouraged and should involve relevant agents from the educational, social and clinical fields.

Retention in Care Trajectories of HIV-Positive Individuals Participating in a Universal Test-and-Treat Program in Rural South Africa (ANRS 12249 TasP Trial)

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text.

Objective:

To study retention in care (RIC) trajectories and associated factors in patients eligible for antiretroviral therapy (ART) in a universal test-and-treat setting (TasP trial, South Africa, 2012–2016).

Design:

A cluster-randomized trial whereby individuals identified HIV positive after home-based testing were invited to initiate ART immediately (intervention) or following national guidelines (control).

Methods:

Exiting care was defined as ≥3 months late for a clinic appointment, transferring elsewhere, or death. Group-based trajectory modeling was performed to estimate RIC trajectories over 18 months and associated factors in 777 ART-eligible patients.

Results:

Four RIC trajectory groups were identified: (1) group 1 “remained” in care (reference, n = 554, 71.3%), (2) group 2 exited care then “returned” after [median (interquartile range)] 4 (3–9) months (n = 40, 5.2%), (3) group 3 “exited care rapidly” [after 4 (4–6) months, n = 98, 12.6%], and (4) group 4 “exited care later” [after 11 (9–13) months, n = 85, 10.9%]. Group 2 patients were less likely to have initiated ART within 1 month and more likely to be male, young (<29 years), without a regular partner, and to have a CD4 count >350 cells/mm³. Group 3 patients were more likely to be women without social support, newly diagnosed, young, and less likely to have initiated ART within 1 month. Group 4 patients were more likely to be newly diagnosed and aged 39 years or younger.

Conclusions:

High CD4 counts at care initiation were not associated with a higher risk of exiting care. Prompt ART initiation and special support for young and newly diagnosed patients with HIV are needed to maximize RIC.

The future of a partially effective HIV vaccine: assessing limitations at the population level

OBJECTIVES

Mathematical models have unanimously predicted that a first-generation HIV vaccine would be useful and cost-effective to roll out, but that its overall impact would be insufficient to reverse the epidemic. Here, we explore what factors contribute most to limiting the impact of such a vaccine.

METHODS

Ranging from a theoretical ideal to a more realistic regimen, mirroring the one used in the currently ongoing trial in South Africa (HVTN 702), we model a nested hierarchy of vaccine attributes such as speed of scale-up, efficacy, durability, and return rates for booster doses.

RESULTS

The predominant reasons leading to a substantial loss of vaccine impact on the HIV epidemic are the time required to scale up mass vaccination, limited durability, and waning of efficacy.

CONCLUSIONS

A first-generation partially effective vaccine would primarily serve as an intermediate milestone, furnishing correlates of immunity and platforms that could serve to accelerate future development of a highly effective, durable, and scalable next-generation vaccine capable of reversing the HIV epidemic.

The First Thousand Days: Motherhood, Scientific Knowledge, and Local Histories

Since 2013, South African nutrition policy focuses on "the first thousand days," (conception to two years), informed by Developmental Origins of Health and Disease research. Drawing on ethnographic research, we show how policy foregrounds certain categories of persons and casts "the maternal" as a time frame for interventions to secure future health and argue that this constitutes a "knowledge effect" - the outcome of framing questions in a particular way and with specific knowledge horizons.

Improving estimates of district HIV prevalence and burden in South Africa using small area estimation techniques

Many countries, including South Africa, have implemented population-based household surveys to estimate HIV prevalence and the burden of HIV infection. Most household HIV surveys are designed to provide reliable estimates down to only the first subnational geopolitical level which, in South Africa, is composed of nine provinces. However HIV prevalence estimates are needed down to at least the second subnational level in order to better target the delivery of HIV care, treatment and prevention services. The second subnational level in South Africa is composed of 52 districts. Achieving adequate precision at the second subnational level therefore requires either a substantial increase in survey sample size or use of model-based estimation capable of incorporating other pre-existing data. Our purpose is demonstration of the efficacy of relatively simple small-area estimation of HIV prevalence in the 52 districts of South Africa using data from the South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behavior Survey, 2012, district-level HIV prevalence estimates obtained from testing of pregnant women who attended antenatal care (ANC) clinics in 2012, and 2012 demographic data. The best-fitting model included only ANC prevalence and dependency ratio as out-of-survey predictors. Our key finding is that ANC prevalence was the superior auxiliary covariate, and provided substantially improved precision in many district-level estimates of HIV prevalence in the general population. Inclusion of a district-level spatial simultaneously autoregressive covariance structure did not result in improved estimation.

Characterisation and Antibiotic Resistance of Selected Bacterial Pathogens Recovered from Dairy Cattle Manure during Anaerobic Mono-Digestion in a Balloon-Type Digester

Dairy cattle manure serves as a potential source of contamination and infection of animals, humans and the environment. Manure samples withdrawn from a balloon-type digester during anaerobic digestion were evaluated for the presence of antibiotic-resistant bacterial pathogens. The bacterial load of the samples was determined via a viable plate count method and the recovered isolates were subjected to characterisation and identification. These isolates were employed in antibiotic susceptibility testing using a disc diffusion method against a suite of 10 conventional antibiotics. The multiple antibiotic resistance (MAR) index was calculated and MAR phenotypes were generated. Although all the bacterial pathogens showed a certain degree of resistance to the studied antibiotics, a marked resistance was demonstrated by Campylobacter sp. to co-trimoxazole (87.5%) and nalidixic acid (81.5%). Remarkably, a high resistance (82.42%) was demonstrated against the antibiotic class, macrolide, followed by beta-lactams (40.44%), suggesting that bacterial resistance depended on the chemical structure of the antibiotics. However, individual bacterial isolates varied in resistance to particular antibiotics. Of the 83 bacterial isolates, 40(48.19%) observed MAR > 0.2 and, thus, were described as multidrug-resistant isolates. A total of 28 MAR phenotypes were revealed with the highest frequency of MAR phenotypes (37.5%) expressed against 3 antibiotics. Results indicated a high risk of exposure to various antibiotics and wide diversity of antibiotic resistance.