A Risk Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality in Patients with Suspected Myocarditis

Do quantitative levels of cardiac troponin I implicate on severity of disease in children, adolescences, and young adults with acute myocarditis and myopericarditis?

OBJECTIVES

When cardiac muscle damage occurs, cardiac troponins are released to blood and their detection is used as a marker in clinical setting. The prognostic value of the quantitative levels of blood troponin I in cases of myocarditis and myopericarditis is unclear. The aim of this study was to analyse whether troponin quantitative blood levels can be correlated with the course of hospitalisation and prognosis.

METHODS

Retrospective data was collected from all consecutive patients aged ≤30 hospitalised with a diagnosis of acute myocarditis or acute myopericarditis in our health Care Campus between the years 2010-2016.

RESULTS

Ninety-three patients with myocarditis and myopericarditis were identified. Higher peak troponin levels correlated with longer hospitalisation times in the cardiac or paediatric wards (p = 0.03, Pearson correlation: r -0.23), and median troponin level at admission correlated with longer overall hospitalisation (p = 0.026, Pearson correlation: r = 0.23). Patients admitted to ICU, received oral cardiac supportive therapy or that were discharged with cardiac drugs had higher median troponin compared to patients who were not but this was not statistically significant. A small group of patients that needed intravenous cardiac support had significantly lower median peak troponin levels (n = 4, 0.375ng/ml, p = 0.048). Only two patients needed extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support, and one died. The small number of patients precludes statistical analysis.

CONCLUSION

Higher troponin levels correlated significantly with longer hospitalisation, lower troponin values correlated with intravenous cardiac support, while other variables related to the severity of disease could not be significantly related to higher troponin levels.

Neural Net Modeling of Checkpoint Inhibitor Related Myocarditis and Steroid Response

Background

Serious but rare side effects associated with immunotherapy pose a difficult problem for regulators and practitioners. Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have come into widespread use in oncology in recent years and are associated with rare cardiotoxicity, including potentially fatal myocarditis. To date, no comprehensive model of myocarditis progression and outcomes integrating time-series based laboratory and clinical signals has been constructed. In this paper, we describe a time-series neural net (NN) model of ICI-related myocarditis derived using supervised machine learning.

Methods

We extracted and modeled data from electronic medical records of ICI-treated patients who had an elevation in their troponin. All data collection was performed using an electronic case report form, with approximately 300 variables collected on as many occasions as available, yielding 6000 data elements per patient over their clinical course. Key variables were scored 0-5 and sequential assessments were used to construct the model. The NN model was developed in MatLab and applied to analyze the time course and outcomes of treatments.

Results

We identified 23 patients who had troponin elevations related to their ICI therapy, 15 of whom had ICI-related myocarditis, while the remaining 8 patients on ICIs had other causes for troponin elevation, such as myocardial infarction. Our model showed that troponin was the most predictive biomarker of myocarditis, in line with prior studies. Our model also identified early and aggressive use of steroid treatment as a major determinant of survival for cases of grade 3 or 4 ICI-related myocarditis.

Conclusion

Our study shows that a supervised learning NN can be used to model rare events such as ICI-related myocarditis and thus provide clinical insight into drivers of progression and treatment outcomes. These findings direct attention to early detection biomarkers and clinical symptoms as the best means of implementing early and potentially life-saving steroid treatment.

Prevalence and Outcomes of Myocarditis in Dengue-Infected Patients Admitted to a Tertiary Care Hospital of Low-Middle Income Country

Background:

Myocarditis is a challenging diagnosis due to the heterogeneity of clinical presentations. Myocarditis can present with a mildly raised cardiac enzyme to severe myocarditis leading to congestive heart failure, arrhythmias, cardiogenic shock, and death. It is a predictor of morbidity and mortality in dengue-infected patients. The exact prevalence of dengue myocarditis and its outcomes are unknown in Pakistan.

Objectives:

We aim to study the prevalence and association of myocarditis with the length of stay in the hospital and mortality of dengue-infected patients.

Methods:

A retrospective observational study done at a tertiary care hospital. We reviewed hospital record files of 1008 consecutive patients with dengue viral infection admitted from November 2018 to November 2019.

Results:

Out of 1008 dengue-infected patients, 55.4% of patients were older than 35 years and 68.4% were males. Hypertension (HTN) was the most common comorbid condition. The prevalence of myocarditis in hospitalized dengue-infected patients was 4.2%. All (100%) of dengue myocarditis patients had raised cardiac troponin I (cTn-I), 59.5% of patients had at least one electrocardiography (ECG) change, and 24% had reduced ejection fraction (EF) (defined as EF < 55%). On multivariable analysis, patients with raised cTn-I levels (adjusted odds ratios = 5.29; [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.16–12.96]) and abnormal echocardiography (ECHO) [aOR = 4.38; 95% CI: 1.26–15.27)] had a prolonged hospital stay (>3 days). Raised cTn-I levels (aOR = 8.2; [95% CI: 1.83–36.84]) was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality.

Conclusions:

Raised cTn-I is the predictor of length of stay and in-hospital mortality in dengue-infected patients. Atrial fibrillation, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, low serum bicarbonate, high serum creatinine, and any abnormality on echocardiography were associated with adverse outcomes in dengue-infected patients.

Symptomatic Young Adults with ST-Segment Elevation-Acute Coronary Syndrome or Myocarditis: The Three-Factor Diagnostic Model

Myocarditis may mimic myocardial infarction (MI) due to a similar clinical presentation, including chest pain, electrocardiography changes, and laboratory findings. The purpose of the study was to investigate the diagnostic value of clinical, laboratory, and electrocardiography characteristics of patients with acute coronary syndrome - like myocarditis and MI. We analysed 90 patients (≤45 years old) with an initial diagnosis of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction; 40 patients (44.4%), through the use of cardiac magnetic resonance, were confirmed to have myocarditis, and 50 patients (55.6%) were diagnosed with MI. Patients with myocarditis were younger and had fewer cardiovascular risk factors than those with MI. The cutoff value distinguishing between myocarditis and MI was defined as the age of 36 years. The history of recent infections (82.5% vs. 6%) and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels on admission (Me 45.9 vs. 3.4) was more associated with myocarditis. Further, the QTc interval was inversely correlated with the echocardiographic ejection fraction in both groups but was significantly longer in patients with MI. Non-invasive diagnostics based on clinical features and laboratory findings are basic but still essential tools for differentiation between MI and myocarditis. The three-factor model including the criteria of age, abnormal CRP, and history of recent infections might become a valuable clinical indication.

Sudden cardiac death in patients with myocarditis: Evaluation, risk stratification, and management

Myocarditis is a major cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) and dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) in young adults. Cardiac magnetic resonance is the established tool for the diagnosis of myocarditis, and late gadolinium enhancement detected on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging is the strongest independent predictor of SCD, all-cause mortality, and cardiac mortality. Several other factors have been associated with SCD or cardiac transplantation including New York Heart Association functional class III/IV, reduced left ventricular ejection fraction <35%, and right ventricular ejection fraction ≤45%. A fragmented QRS and a prolonged QTc interval on an electrocardiogram are predictors of VAs. The postulated mechanism of VA in acute myocarditis is ion channel dysfunction and inflammation that alter intracellular signaling, producing interstitial edema and fibrosis and thereby causing conduction abnormalities. VAs in chronic myocarditis are generally due to scar-mediated reentry. Treatment of myocarditis is tailored toward supportive care and symptomatic relief. The subset of patients who develop DCM should be treated with heart failure medications according to professional guideline recommendations. Indications for an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator are similar to those for nonischemic cardiomyopathy; however, an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator should be held in the acute phase of myocarditis to allow left ventricular ejection fraction recovery, and a wearable cardioverter-defibrillator may be beneficial for some patients. Antiarrhythmic medications are reserved for patients with symptomatic nonsustained or sustained VAs. Radiofrequency ablation appears to be an effective treatment option for VAs; however, more data on its safety and effectiveness are needed. This review addresses risk factors of SCD and VAs in patients with myocarditis with special emphasis on treatment and prevention of these outcomes.

Trends in the Incidence of In-Hospital Mortality, Cardiogenic Shock, and Utilization of Mechanical Circulatory Support Devices in Myocarditis (Analysis of National Inpatient Sample Data, 2005-2014)

BACKGROUND

Myocarditis may be associated with hemodynamic instability and portends a poor prognosis when associated with cardiogenic shock (CS). There are limited data available on the incidence of in-hospital mortality, CS, and utilization of mechanical circulatory support (MCS) devices in these patients.

METHODS

We queried the 2005-2014 National Inpatient Sample databases to identify all patients aged >18 years with myocarditis in the United States.

RESULTS

The number of reported cases of myocarditis per 1 million gradually increased from 95 in 2005 to 144 in 2014 (Pfor trend <.01). The trend and incidence of endomyocardial biopsy remained the same despite the increase in clinical diagnosis. Overall, in-hospital mortality was 4.43% of total admissions without a change in overall trend over the study period. We also observed a significant increase in the incidence of CS from 6.94% in 2005 to 11.99% in 2014 (Pfor trend <.01). There was a parallel increase in the utilization of advanced MCS devices during the same time period such as extracorporeal membrane oxygenation or percutaneous cardiopulmonary support (0.32% in 2005 to 2.1% in 2014; P< .01) and percutaneous ventricular assist devices such as Impella/tandem heart (0.176% in 2005 to 1.75% in 2014; P< .01).

CONCLUSION

Although the incidence of myocarditis has increased in the last decade, the in-hospital mortality has remained the same despite increases in the incidence of CS, possibly reflecting the benefits of increased usage of advanced MCS devices. We noted that increasing age, presence of multiple comorbidities and CS were associated with an increase in in-patient mortality.