Outcome analysis and outcome predictors of traumatic head injury in childhood: Analysis of 454 observations

A Retrospective Cohort Study of Traumatic Brain Injury in Children: A Single-Institution Experience and Determinants of Neurologic Outcome

Introduction

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) has become a significant cause of death and morbidity in childhood since the elucidation of infectious causes within the last century. Mortality rates in this population decreased over time due to developments in technology and effective treatment modalities.

Aim of the study

This retrospective cohort study aimed to describe the volume, severity and mechanism of all hospital-admitted pediatric TBI patients at a university hospital over a 5-year period.

Material and Methods

This was a single-center, retrospective cohort study including 90 pediatric patients with TBI admitted to a tertiary care PICU. The patients' demographic data, injury mechanisms, disease and trauma severity scores, initiation of enteral nutrition and outcome measures such as hospital stay, PICU stay, duration of mechanical ventilation, mortality, and Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) were also recorded. Late enteral nutrition was defined as initiation of enteral feeding after 48 hours of hospitalization.

Results

Of the 90 patients included in the cohort, 60% had mild TBI, 21.1% had moderate TBI and 18.9% had severe TBI. Their mean age was 69 months (3-210 months). TBI was isolated in 34 (37.8%) patients and observed as a part of multisystemic trauma in 56 (62.2%). The most commonly involved site in multisystemic injury was the thorax (33.3%). The length of hospitalization in the late enteral nutrition group was significantly higher than that in the early nutrition group, while the PICU stay was not significantly different between the two groups. The multiple logistic regression analysis found a significant relationship between GOS-3rd month and PIM3 score, the presence of diffuse axonal injury and the need for CPR in the first 24 h of hospitalization.

Conclusion

Although our study showed that delayed enteral nutrition did not affect neurologic outcome, it may lead to prolonged hospitalization and increased hospital costs. High PIM3 scores and diffuse axonal injury are both associated with worse neurologic outcomes.

A Retrospective Cohort Study: Predicting 90-Day Mortality for ICU Trauma Patients with a Machine Learning Algorithm Using XGBoost Using MIMIC-III Database

Objective

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a machine learning-based predictive model that predicts 90-day mortality in ICU trauma patients.

Methods

Data of patients with severe trauma were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database. The performances of mortality prediction models generated using nine machine learning extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), logistic regression, random forest, AdaBoost, multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks, support vector machine (SVM), light gradient boosting machine (GBM), k nearest neighbors (KNN) and gaussian naive bayes (GNB). The performance of the model was evaluated in terms of discrimination, calibration and clinical application.

Results

We found that the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV and F1 score of our proposed XGBoost model were 82.8%, 79.7%, 77.6%, 51.2%, 91.5% and 0.624, respectively. Among the nine models, the XGBoost model performed best. Compared with traditional logistic regression, the calibration curves of the XGBoost model and decision curve analysis (DCA) performed well.

Conclusion

Our study shows that the XGBoost model outperforms other machine learning models in predicting 90-day mortality in trauma patients. It can be used to assist clinicians in the early identification of mortality risk factors and early intervention to reduce mortality.

A 12-Year Audit of Neurological Outcomes Associated with Core Body Temperature >37.5°C in Children with Severe Traumatic Brain Injury

Hyperthermia exposure is associated with poor neurological outcomes in patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). Our aim was to describe fever in children with severe TBI admitted to a pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) for at least 72 hours and to evaluate associations between fever using a novel approach to describe thermal exposure and neurobehavioral outcomes. The cohort included children from birth to 17 years of age admitted to the PICU between 2000 and 2012 for at least 72 hours who had severe TBI with intracranial pressure monitoring. Patients with non-accidental TBI or pre-existing developmental delays were excluded. Hyperthermia was defined as a core temperature >37.5°C. Hourly temperature measurements were used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) using the linear trapezoidal rule. Each participant was followed up at the Brain Injury Clinic 6 and 18 months postinjury. Neurobehavioral outcome scores were analyzed against AUC using standard statistical methods. Ninety-eight patients admitted with severe TBI met the study inclusion criteria. Hyperthermia/fever was common (89.7%), and patients remained hyperthermic for a median of 9.4 hours. However, no statistically significant association was found between AUC and abnormal neurological outcomes. The follow-up rates were good at 6 (86.7%) and 18 months (83.7%). The neurological deficit improved with time, with "favorable outcomes" increasing from 72% to 94% at the respective follow-up months. Our study used a novel method to describe patients' fever, providing a different indicator of thermal exposure than that previously reported. In addition, the AUC was well correlated with the maximum temperature recorded and the proportion of time >37.5°C, indicating that it is a good surrogate for thermal exposure. Interestingly, the neurological disabilities of the patients improved over time.

Injury Causes and Severity in Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury Patients Admitted to the Ward or Intensive Care Unit: A Collaborative European Neurotrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) Study

Background: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is the leading cause of death and disability in children. It includes a range of different pathologies that differ considerably from adult TBI. Analyzing and understanding injury patterns of pediatric TBI is essential to establishing new preventive efforts as well as to improve clinical management.

Methods: The multi-center, prospectively collected CENTER-TBI core and registry databases were screened and patients were included when younger than 18 years at enrollment and admitted to the regular ward (admission stratum) or intensive care unit (ICU stratum) following TBI. Patient demographics, injury causes, clinical findings, brain CT imaging details, and outcome (GOSE at 6 months follow-up) were retrieved and analyzed. Injury characteristics were compared between patients admitted to the regular ward and ICU and multivariate analysis of factors predicting an unfavorable outcome (GOSE 1-4) was performed. Results from the core study were compared to the registry dataset which includes larger patient numbers but no follow-up data.

Results: Two hundred and twenty seven patients in the core dataset and 687 patients in the registry dataset were included in this study. In the core dataset, road-traffic incidents were the most common cause of injury overall and in the ICU stratum, while incidental falls were most common in the admission stratum. Brain injury was considered serious to severe in the majority of patients and concurrent injuries in other body parts were very common. Intracranial abnormalities were detected in 60% of initial brain CTs. Intra- and extracranial surgical interventions were performed in one-fifth of patients. The overall mortality rate was 3% and the rate of unfavorable outcome 10%, with those numbers being considerably higher among ICU patients. GCS and the occurrence of secondary insults could be identified as independent predictors for an unfavorable outcome. Injury characteristics from the core study could be confirmed in the registry dataset.

Conclusion: Our study displays the most common injury causes and characteristics of pediatric TBI patients that are treated in the regular ward or ICU in Europe. Road-traffic incidents were especially common in ICU patients, indicating that preventive efforts could be effective in decreasing the incidence of severe TBI in children.

Pattern and Outcome of Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury at Hawassa University Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Southern Ethiopia: Observational Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is the most common cause of death/disability in children. The Glasgow coma scale and other parameters are used for treatment/follow-up of TBI. Childhood TBI data are scarce from sub-Saharan Africa. The study aimed to determine the pattern and predictors of the TBI outcome in Southern Ethiopia.

METHODS

An observational cross-sectional study was conducted from September 2017 to September 2018 at Hawassa University Hospital. Structured questionnaires were used for data collection. Significant associations were declared at a P value of <0.05.

RESULTS

There were 4,258 emergency room (ER) visits during the study period, and TBI contributed to 317 (7.4%) cases. The mean age of study subjects was 7.66 ± 3.88 years. Boys, predominantly above 5 years of age, comprise 218 (68.8%) of the study subjects with a male to female ratio of 2.2 : 1. Pedestrian road traffic accidents (RTA), 120 (37.9%), and falls, 104 (32.8%), were the commonest causes of TBI. Mild, moderate, and severe TBI were documented in 231 (72.9%), 61 (19.2%), and 25 (7.9%) of cases, respectively. Most of the TBI cases presented within 24 hrs of injury, 258 (81.4%). Recovery with no neurologic deficit, 267 (84.2%); focal neurologic deficit, 30 (9.5%); depressed mentation, 10 (3.2%); and death, 10 (3.2%), were documented. Signs of increased intracranial pressure (ICP) at admission [AOR: 1.415 (95% CI: 1.4058-9.557)], severe TBI [AOR: 2.553 (95% CI: 1.965-4.524)], presence of hyperglycemia [AOR: 2.318 (95% CI: 1.873-7.874)], and presence of contusion, diffuse axonal injury (DAI), or intracranial bleeding on the head computed tomography (CT) scan [AOR: 2.45 (95% CI: 1.811-7.952)] predicted poor TBI outcome.

CONCLUSION

TBI contributed to 7.4% of pediatric ER visits. Pedestrian RTA and falls, early presentation (<24 hours of injury), and mild form of TBI among boys were the most common documented patterns. ICP, hyperglycemia, severe TBI, and presence of contusion, DAI, or intracranial bleeding on head CT predicted poor outcome. Strategies to ensure road safety and to prevent falls and animal-related injuries and TBI follow-up for ICP and glycemic controls are recommended.

Clinical Characteristics and Predictors of Poor Hospital Discharge Outcome for Young Children with Abusive Head Trauma

Children with abusive head trauma tend to have worse outcomes than children with accidental head trauma. However, current predictors of poor outcomes for children with abusive head trauma are still limited. We aim to use clinical data to identify early predictors of poor outcome at discharge in children with abusive head trauma. In the 10-year observational retrospective cohort study, children aged between zero and four years with abusive or accidental head trauma were recruited. Multivariate logistic regression models were applied to evaluate factors associated with poor prognosis in children with abusive head trauma. The primary outcome was mortality or a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) motor component score of less than 6 at discharge. A total of 292 head trauma children were included. Among them, 59 children had abusive head trauma. In comparison to children with accidental head trauma, children with abusive head trauma were younger, had more severe head injuries, and experienced a higher frequency of post-traumatic seizures. Their radiologic findings showed common presence of subdural hemorrhage, cerebral edema, and less epidural hemorrhage. They were more in need of neurosurgical intervention. In the multivariate analysis for predictors of poor outcome in children with abusive head trauma, initial GCS ≤ 5 (versus GCS > 5 with the adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 25.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.5⁻432.8, p = 0.024) and older age (per year with the adjusted OR = 3.3, 95% CI = 1.2⁻9.5, p = 0.024) were independently associated with poor outcome. These findings demonstrate the characteristic clinical differences between children with abusive and accidental head trauma. Initial GCS ≤ 5 and older age are predictive of poor outcome at discharge in children with abusive head trauma.

Frequency of Desaturation and Association With Hemodynamic Adverse Events During Tracheal Intubations in PICUs

OBJECTIVES

Oxygen desaturation during tracheal intubation is known to be associated with adverse ICU outcomes in critically ill children. We aimed to determine the occurrence and severity of desaturation during tracheal intubations and the association with adverse hemodynamic tracheal intubation-associated events.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study as a part of the National Emergency Airway Registry for Children Network's quality improvement project from January 2012 to December 2014.

SETTING

International PICUs.

PATIENTS

Critically ill children younger than 18 years undergoing primary tracheal intubations in the ICUs.

INTERVENTIONS

tracheal intubation processes of care and outcomes were prospectively collected using standardized operational definitions. We defined moderate desaturation as oxygen saturation less than 80% and severe desaturation as oxygen saturation less than 70% during tracheal intubation procedures in children with initial oxygen saturation greater than 90% after preoxygenation. Adverse hemodynamic tracheal intubation-associated event was defined as cardiac arrests, hypo or hypertension requiring intervention, and dysrhythmia.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

A total of 5,498 primary tracheal intubations from 31 ICUs were reported. Moderate desaturation was observed in 19.3% associated with adverse hemodynamic tracheal intubation-associated events (9.8% among children with moderate desaturation vs 4.4% without desaturation; p < 0.001). Severe desaturation was observed in 12.9% of tracheal intubations, also significantly associated with hemodynamic tracheal intubation-associated events. After adjusting for patient, provider, and practice factors, the occurrence of moderate desaturation was independently associated with hemodynamic tracheal intubation-associated events: adjusted odds ratio 1.83 (95% CI, 1.34-2.51; p < 0.001). The occurrence of severe desaturation was also independently associated with hemodynamic tracheal intubation-associated events: adjusted odds ratio 2.16 (95% CI, 1.54-3.04; p < 0.001). Number of tracheal intubation attempts was also significantly associated with the frequency of moderate and severe desaturations (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this large tracheal intubation quality improvement database, we found moderate and severe desaturation are reported among 19% and 13% of all tracheal intubation encounters. Moderate and severe desaturations were independently associated with the occurrence of adverse hemodynamic events. Future quality improvement interventions may focus to reduce desaturation events.

Clinical characteristics and prognosis of traumatic head injury following road traffic accidents admitted in ICU "analysis of 694 cases"

BACKGROUND

The aim of the present study is to analyze the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) following Road Traffic Accidents (RTAs). Moreover, we aim to evaluate the outcome of the TBI victims referred to our medico-surgical Intensive Care Unit (ICU), and to define predictive factors associated with poor prognosis.

METHODS

A retrospective study over a 4-year period (2009 to 2012) of 694 patients with head injuries, incurred during road traffic accidents, admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of a university hospital (Sfax-Tunisia). Basic demographic, clinical, biological, and radiological data were recorded on admission and during the ICU stay.

RESULTS

There were 592 males (85.3%), and 102 female patients. The mean age was at 31.8 ± 17.8 years (range 1-91). The mechanism of the accident was detailed in 666 patients (96%). The majority of the victims were motorcycle riders and/or passengers (40.5%), followed by pedestrians (29.1%). Extra-cranial pathology was present in 452 patients (65%). A total of 677 patients (97.6%) required intubation, mechanical ventilation, and sedation. Mean ICU stay was 16 ± 17.4 days. A total of 187 patients (26.9%) died during their hospital stay. The GOS performed within a mean delay of 6 months after hospital discharge was as follows: 198 deaths (28.5%), 13 vegetative state (1.9%), and 349 (50.3%) good recovery and/or moderate disability. A multivariate analysis showed that the factors which correlated with a poor prognosis (mortality and severe disability) were: age > 38 years, Glasgow coma scale score < 8, subdural hematoma, and development of secondary systemic insults (respiratory, circulatory, and metabolic).

CONCLUSION

In Tunisia, traumatic brain injury due to RTAs is a frequent cause of ICU admission, especially among young adults, and is associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. The majority of the victims were motorcycle riders and/or passengers and pedestrians. The factors associated with a poor outcome were: age > 38 years, Glasgow Coma Scale score < 8, subdural hematoma, and development of secondary systemic insults (respiratory, circulatory, and metabolic). As a consequence, prevention is highly warranted.

The Effect of Hemoglobin Levels on Mortality in Pediatric Patients with Severe Traumatic Brain Injury

Objective. There is increasing evidence of adverse outcomes associated with blood transfusions for adult traumatic brain injury patients. However, current evidence suggests that pediatric traumatic brain injury patients may respond to blood transfusions differently on a vascular level. This study examined the influence of blood transfusions and anemia on the outcome of pediatric traumatic brain injury patients. Design. A retrospective cohort analysis of severe pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients was undertaken to investigate the association between blood transfusions and anemia on patient outcomes. Measurements and Main Results. One hundred and twenty patients with severe traumatic brain injury were identified and included in the analysis. The median Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) was 6 and the mean hemoglobin (Hgb) on admission was 115.8 g/L. Forty-three percent of patients (43%) received at least one blood transfusion and the mean hemoglobin before transfusion was 80.1 g/L. Multivariable regression analysis revealed that anemia and the administration of packed red blood cells were not associated with adverse outcomes. Factors that were significantly associated with mortality were presence of abusive head trauma, increasing PRISM score, and low GCS after admission. Conclusion. In this single centre retrospective cohort study, there was no association found between anemia, blood transfusions, and hospital mortality in a pediatric traumatic brain injury patient population.

Designing optimal mortality risk prediction scores that preserve clinical knowledge

Many in-hospital mortality risk prediction scores dichotomize predictive variables to simplify the score calculation. However, hard thresholding in these additive stepwise scores of the form "add x points if variable v is above/below threshold t" may lead to critical failures. In this paper, we seek to develop risk prediction scores that preserve clinical knowledge embedded in features and structure of the existing additive stepwise scores while addressing limitations caused by variable dichotomization. To this end, we propose a novel score structure that relies on a transformation of predictive variables by means of nonlinear logistic functions facilitating smooth differentiation between critical and normal values of the variables. We develop an optimization framework for inferring parameters of the logistic functions for a given patient population via cyclic block coordinate descent. The parameters may readily be updated as the patient population and standards of care evolve. We tested the proposed methodology on two populations: (1) brain trauma patients admitted to the intensive care unit of the Dell Children's Medical Center of Central Texas between 2007 and 2012, and (2) adult ICU patient data from the MIMIC II database. The results are compared with those obtained by the widely used PRISM III and SOFA scores. The prediction power of a score is evaluated using area under ROC curve, Youden's index, and precision-recall balance in a cross-validation study. The results demonstrate that the new framework enables significant performance improvements over PRISM III and SOFA in terms of all three criteria.

Greater fluctuations in serum sodium levels are associated with increased mortality in children with externalized ventriculostomy drains in a PICU

OBJECTIVES

Dysnatremia is common in critically ill children due to disruption of hormonal homeostasis. Children with brain injury are at risk for syndrome of inappropriate antidiuretic hormone, cerebral salt wasting, and sodium losses due to externalized ventricular drain placement. We hypothesized that among PICU patients managed with an externalized ventricular drain, hyponatremia is common, hyponatremia is associated with seizures and in-hospital mortality, and greater sodium fluctuations are associated with in-hospital mortality.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

SETTING

Tertiary care PICU.

PATIENTS

All pediatric patients treated in the PICU with an externalized ventricular drain from January 2005 to December 2009. Patients were identified by searching the physician order entry database for externalized ventricular drain orders. Hyponatremia was defined as the minimum sodium during patients' externalized ventricular drain time and was categorized as mild (131-134 mEq/L) or moderate to severe (≤ 130 mEq/L). Magnitude of sodium fluctuation was defined as the difference between a patient's highest and lowest sodium during the time in which an externalized ventricular drain was in use (up to 14 d). Seizure was defined as a clinically evident convulsion during externalized ventricular drain presence. A priori confounders were age, history of epilepsy, and externalized ventricular drain indication. Multivariable regression was performed to test the association between sodium derangements and outcomes.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Three hundred eighty patients were eligible. One hundred nine (29%) had mild hyponatremia, and 30 (8%) had moderate to severe hyponatremia. Twenty-eight patients (7%) had a seizure while hospitalized. Eighteen patients died (5%) prior to discharge. Survivors had a median daily sodium fluctuation of 1 mEq/L [0-5] vs non-survivors 9 mEq/L [6-11] (p < 0.001) and a median sodium fluctuation of 5 mEq/L [2-8] vs non-survivors 15 mEq/L [9-24] (p < 0.001) during externalized ventricular drain management. After controlling for a priori covariates and potential confounders, hyponatremia was not associated with an increased odds of seizures or in-hospital mortality. However, greater fluctuations in daily sodium (odds ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.06-1.8) and greater fluctuations in sodium during externalized ventricular drain management were associated with increased odds of in-hospital mortality (odds ratio, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.2-2.11).

CONCLUSIONS

Hyponatremia was common in PICU patients treated with externalized ventricular drains but not associated with seizures or in-hospital mortality. Greater sodium fluctuations during externalized ventricular drain management were independently associated with increased odds of in-hospital mortality.

Predictors of acute symptomatic seizures after intracranial hemorrhage in infants

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence of acute symptomatic seizures in infants with supratentorial intracranial hemorrhage, to identify potential risk factors, and to determine the effect of acute seizures on long-term morbidity and mortality.

DESIGN

Children less than 24 months with intracranial hemorrhage were identified from a neurocritical care database. All patients who received seizure prophylaxis beginning at admission were included in the study. Risk factors studied were gender, etiology, location of hemorrhage, seizure(s) on presentation, and the presence of parenchymal injury. Acute clinical and electrographic seizures were identified from hospital medical records. Subsequent development of late seizures was determined based on clinical information from patients' latest follow-up.

SETTING AND PATIENTS

Patients with idiopathic neonatal intracranial hemorrhage, premature infants, and those with prior history of seizures were excluded from analysis. Seventy-two infants met inclusion criteria.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Forty percent of infants had acute symptomatic seizures. The prevalence was similar regardless of whether etiology of hemorrhage was traumatic or nontraumatic. Seizures on presentation and parenchymal injury were independent risk factors of acute seizures (p = 0.001 and p = 0.006, respectively). Younger children and women were also at higher risk (p < 0.05). Twenty percent had electrographic-only seizures, and those with parenchymal injury trended toward an increased risk (p < 0.1). Acute seizures were not predictive of mortality, but nearly twice as many patients with acute seizures developed late seizures when compared with those without. Electrographic seizures and parenchymal injury were also predictive of development of late seizures (p < 0.001 and p = 0.013, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite seizure prophylaxis, infants with supratentorial intracranial hemorrhage are at high risk for acute symptomatic seizures. This is regardless of the etiology of hemorrhage. Younger patients, women, patients with parenchymal injury, and patients presenting with seizure are most likely to develop acute seizures. Although the benefits of seizure prophylaxis have not been studied in this specific population, these results suggest that it is an important component of acute care following intracranial hemorrhage.

Scoring systems of severity in patients with multiple trauma

Trauma is a major cause of morbidity and mortality; hence severity scales are important adjuncts to trauma care in order to characterize the nature and extent of injury. Trauma scoring models can assist with triage and help in evaluation and prediction of prognosis in order to organise and improve trauma systems. Given the wide variety of scoring instruments available to assess the injured patient, it is imperative that the choice of the severity score accurately match the application. Even though trauma scores are not the key elements of trauma treatment, they are however, an essential part of improvement in triage decisions and in identifying patients with unexpected outcomes. This article provides the reader with a compendium of trauma severity scales along with their predicted death rate calculation, which can be adopted in order to improve decision making, trauma care, research and in comparative analyses in quality assessment.

Traumatic extradural hematoma in enugu, Nigeria

Aim:

Acute traumatic extradural hematoma (EDH) is life threatening and requires prompt intervention. This is a study of incidence and outcome of consecutive patients with EDH managed in Enugu, Nigeria against a background of delayed referral.

Materials and Methods:

We retrospectively examined all consecutive trauma cases managed between 2003 and 2009 and analyzed patients with acute traumatic extradural hematoma in isolation or in combination with other intra cranial lesions. Age, sex, cause of injury, time of presentation, Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), pupil reactivity, treatment and clinical outcomes were determined.

Results:

Of 817 head injuries, 69 (8.4%) had EDH, a mean of 9.9 patients per year. Males were 57 (83%) and females 12 (17%). Peak age incidences were the second and third decades of life, with a mean age of 30.2 years. Causes were road traffic accidents (57%), assault (22%) and falls (9%). Twenty-six (38%) patients presented within 24 h of injury and only one patient presented within 4 h. The average time lag before presentation was 94.2 h. At presentation 39% had GCS of 13-15, 27% had 9-12 and 34% had 3-8. The most common location of hematoma was temporal (27.5%). Forty (59%) patients had surgery while 14 (20%) were managed conservatively. Ten patients (14.5%) died and of these 70% had GCS <8 and 60% had a seizure.

Conclusion:

We conclude that early appropriate treatment of EDH results in good high quality survival (Glasgow Outcome Score 4 or 5). Low GCS should not be an absolute contraindication for surgery. Seizure prophylaxis should be considered in patients with GCS <8.