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Adom PK. The socioeconomic impact of climate change in developing countries over the next decades: A literature survey. Heliyon 2024; 10:e35134. [PMID: 39170312 PMCID: PMC11336461 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e35134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2024] [Revised: 07/23/2024] [Accepted: 07/23/2024] [Indexed: 08/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and shifting rainfall patterns pose significant threats to developing countries with fragile social, economic, and political structures. While research has intensified on socioeconomic impacts of climate change, existing survey studies exhibit substantial scope variations and seldom concurrently analyze these impacts, hindering policy coordination. This study reviews literature on the broad spectrum of socioeconomic impacts of climate change to discern trends and underscore areas requiring additional attention. The survey unveils that, across various socioeconomic indicators, the most vulnerable groups bear a disproportionate burden of climate change, with long-term impacts forecasted to surpass medium-term effects. Adaptation and mitigation options are feasible but must be tailored to local contexts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philip Kofi Adom
- School of Economics and Finance, The University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
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2
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Bozorg-Omid F, Kafash A, Jafari R, Akhavan AA, Rahimi M, Rahimi Foroushani A, Youssefi F, Shirzadi MR, Ostadtaghizadeh A, Hanafi-Bojd AA. Predicting current and future high-risk areas for vectors and reservoirs of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran. Sci Rep 2023; 13:11546. [PMID: 37460690 PMCID: PMC10352301 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-38515-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2023] [Accepted: 07/10/2023] [Indexed: 07/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change will affect the distribution of species in the future. To determine the vulnerable areas relating to CL in Iran, we applied two models, MaxEnt and RF, for the projection of the future distribution of the main vectors and reservoirs of CL. The results of the models were compared in terms of performance, species distribution maps, and the gain, loss, and stable areas. The models provided a reasonable estimate of species distribution. The results showed that the Northern and Southern counties of Iran, which currently do not have a high incidence of CL may witness new foci in the future. The Western, and Southwestern regions of the Country, which currently have high habitat suitability for the presence of some vectors and reservoirs, will probably significantly decrease in the future. Furthermore, the most stable areas are for T. indica and M. hurrianae in the future. So that, this species may remain a major reservoir in areas that are present under current conditions. With more local studies in the field of identifying vulnerable areas to CL, it can be suggested that the national CL control guidelines should be revised to include a section as a climate change adaptation plan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Faramarz Bozorg-Omid
- Department of Vector Biology and Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Anooshe Kafash
- Zoonoses Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Reza Jafari
- School of Public Health, Esfahan Health Research Station, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Amir Ahmad Akhavan
- Department of Vector Biology and Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammad Rahimi
- Department of Combat Desertification, Faculty of Desert Studies, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
| | - Abbas Rahimi Foroushani
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Fahimeh Youssefi
- Department of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammad Reza Shirzadi
- Center for Research of Endemic Parasites of Iran, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Center for Communicable Diseases Control, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
| | - Abbas Ostadtaghizadeh
- Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
| | - Ahmad Ali Hanafi-Bojd
- Department of Vector Biology and Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
- Zoonoses Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
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3
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Weber E, Downward GS, Ebi KL, Lucas PL, van Vuuren D. The use of environmental scenarios to project future health effects: a scoping review. Lancet Planet Health 2023; 7:e611-e621. [PMID: 37438002 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(23)00110-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2022] [Revised: 05/04/2023] [Accepted: 05/19/2023] [Indexed: 07/14/2023]
Abstract
Environmental risks are a substantial factor in the current burden of disease, and their role is likely to increase in the future. Model-based scenario analysis is used extensively in environmental sciences to explore the potential effects of human activities on the environment. In this Review, we examine the literature on scenarios modelling environmental effects on health to identify the most relevant findings, common methods used, and important research gaps. Health outcomes and measures related to climate change (n=106) and air pollution (n=30) were most frequently studied. Studies examining future disease burden due to changes or policies related to dietary risks were much less common (n=10). Only a few studies assessed more than two environmental risks (n=3), even though risks can accumulate and interact with each other. Studies predominantly covered high-income countries and Asia. Sociodemographic, vulnerability, and health-system changes were rarely accounted for; thus, assessing the full effect of future environmental changes in an integrative way is not yet possible. We recommend that future models incorporate a broader set of determinants of health to more adequately capture their effect, as well as the effect of mitigation and adaptation efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eartha Weber
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
| | - George S Downward
- Department of Global Public Health and Bioethics, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Paul L Lucas
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands
| | - Detlef van Vuuren
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
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4
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Trájer AJ. The alteration of the suitability patterns of Leishmania infantum due to climate change in Iran. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RESEARCH 2022; 32:1567-1580. [PMID: 33685297 DOI: 10.1080/09603123.2021.1897535] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2020] [Accepted: 02/26/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Leishmaniasis is the most important parasitic infection in Iran. The aim of this study was to model the changing suitability patterns of Leishmania infantum, the causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis for the 21st century in the country. Temperature, precipitation, and aridity-nature distribution limiting bioclimatic variables were involved in the ecological modelling. The altitudinal trends were considered by using 100 m bars. In Iran, the topographical patterns strongly impact the changing patterns of the suitability of L. infantum due to climate change. In general, climate change will decrease the parasite's suitability in the areas at low altitudes and increase in the middle and higher elevation regions. Increasing values are mainly predicted in the West, the decreasing suitability values in the East part of Iran. The altitudinal shifts and the reduced spatial distribution of L. infantum in the arid regions of East and Central Iran were modelled.
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Affiliation(s)
- Attila J Trájer
- Sustainability Solutions Research Lab, University of Pannonia, Veszprém, Hungary
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Wen X, Zhao G, Cheng X, Chang G, Dong X, Lin X. Prediction of the potential distribution pattern of the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) under climate change based on ensemble modelling. PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 2022; 78:3128-3134. [PMID: 35442553 DOI: 10.1002/ps.6939] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2021] [Revised: 04/15/2022] [Accepted: 04/18/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rodent infestation is a global biological problem. Rodents are widely distributed worldwide, cause harm to agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry production and spread a variety of natural focal diseases. In this study, 10 ecological niche models were combined into an ensemble model to assess the distribution of suitable habitats for Rhombomys opimus and to predict the impact of future climate change on the distribution of R. opimus under low, medium and high socioeconomic pathway scenarios of CMIP6. RESULTS In general, with the exception of extreme climates (2090-SSP585), the current and potential future ranges of R. opimus habitat are maintained at approximately 220 × 104 km2 . In combination with human footprint data, the potential distribution area of R. opimus was found to coincide with areas with a moderate human footprint. In addition, this distribution area will gradually shift to higher-latitude regions, and the suitable habitat area of R. opimus will gradually shrink in China, Iran, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan while increasing in Mongolia and Kazakhstan. CONCLUSIONS These results help identify the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of R. opimus and provide supportive information for the development of management strategies to protect against future ecological and human health risks. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuanye Wen
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shenyang, China
| | - Guanghua Zhao
- College of Life Sciences, Shanxi Normal University, Linfen, China
| | - Xiaotian Cheng
- The Station of Forest Seedling Quarantine and Pest Management, Changji, China
| | - Guobin Chang
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shenyang, China
| | - Xiaobo Dong
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shenyang, China
| | - Xiao Lin
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shenyang, China
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Charrahy Z, Yaghoobi-Ershadi MR, Shirzadi MR, Akhavan AA, Rassi Y, Hosseini SZ, Webb NJ, Haque U, Bozorg Omid F, Hanafi-Bojd AA. Climate change and its effect on the vulnerability to zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran. Transbound Emerg Dis 2021; 69:1506-1520. [PMID: 33876891 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2021] [Revised: 04/09/2021] [Accepted: 04/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) is an important vector-borne disease with an incidence of 15.8 cases per 100,000 people in Iran in 2019. Despite all efforts to control the disease, ZCL has expanded into new areas during the last decades. The aim of this study was to predict the best ecological niches for both vectors and reservoirs of ZCL under climate change scenarios in Iran. Several online scientific databases were searched. In this study, various scientific sources (Google Scholar, PubMed, SID, Ovid Medline, Web of Science, Irandoc, Magiran) were searched. The inclusion criteria for this study included all records with spatial information about vectors and reservoirs of ZCL which were published between 1980 and 2019. The bioclimatic data were downloaded from online databases. MaxEnt model was used to predict the ecological niches for each species under two climate change scenarios in two periods: the 2030s and 2050s. The results obtained from the model were analysed in ArcMap to find the vulnerability of different provinces for the establishment of ZCL foci. The area under the curve (AUC) for all models was >0.8, which suggests the models are able to make an accurate prediction. The distribution of all studied species in different climatic conditions showed changes. The variables affecting each of the studied species are introduced in the article. The predicted maps show that by 2050 there will be more suitable areas for the co-occurrence of vector and reservoir(s) of ZCL in Iran compared to the current climate condition and RCP2.6 scenario. An area in the northwest of Iran is predicted to have suitable environmental conditions for both vectors and reservoirs of ZCL, although the disease has not yet been reported in this area. These areas should be considered for field studies to confirm these results and to prevent the establishment of new ZCL foci in Iran.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zabihollah Charrahy
- Department of Natural Resources, School of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammad Reza Yaghoobi-Ershadi
- Department of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammad Reza Shirzadi
- Center for Communicable Diseases Control, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
| | - Amir Ahmad Akhavan
- Department of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Yavar Rassi
- Department of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Seyedeh Zohreh Hosseini
- Department of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Nathaniel J Webb
- Department of Health Behavior Research, University of North Texas Health Science Center, Fort Worth, TX, USA
| | - Ubydul Haque
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of North Texas Health Science Center, Fort Worth, TX, USA
| | - Faramarz Bozorg Omid
- Department of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ahmad Ali Hanafi-Bojd
- Department of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.,Zoonoses Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
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Zaatour W, Marilleau N, Giraudoux P, Martiny N, Amara ABH, Miled SB. An agent-based model of a cutaneous leishmaniasis reservoir host, Meriones shawi. Ecol Modell 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109455] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Impact of Climatic Factors on the Seasonal Fluctuation of Leishmaniasis Vectors in Central Morocco (Meknes Prefecture). ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2021; 2020:6098149. [PMID: 33425077 PMCID: PMC7775173 DOI: 10.1155/2020/6098149] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2020] [Revised: 11/14/2020] [Accepted: 12/11/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
The impact of climate factors on the epidemiology of diseases in general and leishmaniasis in particular continues to be a subject of research and analysis. Changes in climatic parameters contribute to the creation of ecological conditions favorable to the multiplication of the vectors of certain diseases. With this in mind, this study presents an entomological survey conducted in Meknes prefecture and the study of the link between the abundance of sandflies, an indicator of the risk of leishmaniasis in a given area, and the climatic factors. Monthly trapping of this fauna was carried out during a year from March 2016 until April 2017 using adhesive traps. Climatic data from the region were used to determine the effect of climate on the distribution of sandflies. A total of 941 leishmaniasis vector specimens were captured. The dominant species is Ph. sergenti (73.32), followed by Ph. longicuspis (8.25%), then Ph. perniciosus (7.94%) and Ph. papatasi (6.31%). The sex ratio study showed that males are more abundant than females for all species. The seasonal fluctuation is bimodal with two peaks, the first in July and the second in September. The results show a positive correlation between temperature and abundance of sandflies (r = 0.99) and a negative correlation with humidity and precipitation with a correlation coefficient of r = −0.87 and r = −0.72. Indeed, the medium-term climatological forecasts are essential tools to develop a warning system for leishmaniasis.
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Aghaei Afshar A, Hojjat F, Yaghoobi-Ershadi MR, Rassi Y, Akhavan AA, Gorouhi MA, Yousefi S, Hanafi-Bojd AA. Modelling and evaluating the risk of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in selected areas of Kerman Province, south of Iran. Transbound Emerg Dis 2020; 67:1271-1283. [PMID: 31883433 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13465] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2019] [Revised: 11/25/2019] [Accepted: 12/19/2019] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) remains a public health problem in the world, particularly in tropical and sub-tropical countries. This study aimed to determine the hotspots of CL in Kerman Province of Iran and model their potential for the establishment of new disease foci. All documents related to studies conducted in Kerman Province on CL published between 1978 and 2017 were retrieved and categorized. Spatial distributions of the vector, reservoir and human infection of CL were mapped. MaxEnt ecological model was used to predict the environmental suitability of the vector and reservoir(s) of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL). The most hazardous sites with the potential for the establishment of new disease foci were determined for field operations. Statistics of new cases of CL was obtained from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) of the ministry of health for the period 2011-2016. A total of 6,056 cases of CL were recorded, while we found a decreasing pattern in the incidence of CL from 46.48 per 100,000 inhabitants to 22.97. The best ecological niches for Phlebotomus papatasi are located in the central, western, northwest and southwest regions of the province. Also, environmental suitability for the reservoirs was highest in the central, southern and southwestern regions. The model predicted the gerbils can be present in some foci of anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL). However, this result should be confirmed through a precise field study, and if validated, plans should be made to prevent the emergence of new foci of ZCL in the risk areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abbas Aghaei Afshar
- Department of Medical Entomology & Vecotr Control, School of Public Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Fahimeh Hojjat
- Department of Medical Entomology & Vecotr Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammad Reza Yaghoobi-Ershadi
- Department of Medical Entomology & Vecotr Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Yavar Rassi
- Department of Medical Entomology & Vecotr Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Amir Ahmad Akhavan
- Department of Medical Entomology & Vecotr Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammad Amin Gorouhi
- Department of Medical Entomology & Vecotr Control, School of Public Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Saideh Yousefi
- Department of Medical Entomology & Vecotr Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ahmad Ali Hanafi-Bojd
- Department of Medical Entomology & Vecotr Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
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