Prospective evaluation of the utility of CHA2DS2-VASc score in the prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation after off-pump coronary artery bypass surgery - An observational study

Risk factors analysis and nomogram model construction for postoperative atrial fibrillation after off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting

Objective

To explore the risk factors associated with postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCABG) and to construct a nomogram predictive model.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, clinical data of 193 patients who received OPCABG in Huai'an First People's Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University from June 2021 to November 2023 were retrospectively analyzed. Based on the established diagnosis of POAF, patients were divided into the POAF group (n=75) and the non-POAF group (n=118). Logistic regression analysis was used to screen for risk factors for POAF after OPCABG. A nomogram prediction model for POAF after OPCABG was constructed based on the independent risk factors, and the model was validated by calibration curve and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results

The incidence of POAF after OPCABG in the cohort was 38.86% (75/193). Age, diabetes, history of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), duration of operation, length of hospital stay and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were identified as independent risk factors for POAF after OPCABG (P<0.05). The concordance index of the nomogram model for predicting the risk of after POAF after OPCABG based on the six independent risk factors was 0.820. The correction curve tended towards the ideal curve, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.820 (95% CI:0.758~0 882).

Conclusions

Age, diabetes, history of PCI, duration of operation, length of hospital stay and LVEF are independent risk factors for POAF after OPCABG. The constructed nomogram model has a good predictive performance for predicting POAF in patients after OPCABG.

CHA2DS2-VASc predicts readmission, outcomes and resource utilization in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting: A 7-year National Readmission Database study

BACKGROUND

CHA2DS2-VASc score is used to assess thromboembolic risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF)/atrial flutter (AFL), however its utilization to predict outcomes and readmission at following discharge in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) regardless of AF/AFL presence is understudied. We sought to assess its utility in predicting outcomes, length of hospital stay (LOS), and healthcare-associated costs (HAC) in these patients.

METHOD

The National Readmission Database (NRD) was queried from 2010 to 2017 for patients with/without AF/AFL undergoing CABG using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth editions (ICD-9-&-10). Multiple regression analysis and multivariate analysis using Cox-Hazard analysis were used to evaluate outcomes up to 90-day readmission from discharge, LOS, and HAC against CHA2DS2-VASc score (cut-off-score:6) were abstracted from the database.

RESULTS

Of the 420,458 patients that underwent CABG, 76,859 (18.3 %) were re-admitted to hospital within 90-days from discharge. Statistically significant increase in 90-day all-cause readmissions were demonstrated with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score [No AF/AFL vs AF/AFL: score-0 (2.4 % vs1.4 %), score-6 (3.1 % vs 4.5 %, p-value<0.0001]. Similar trends were seen in re-admissions for TIA/Stroke and heart failure. The survival rate for all events were lower with incremental increase in CHA2DS2-VASc score (score-0 = 100 %; score-6 = 73 %, p-value<0.0001). Greater LOS and HAC was associated with increasing higher CHA2DS2-VASc score (standardized-beta[β]; no AF/AFL vs AF/AFL: LOS = score-1: 0.08 vs 0.06, score-6: 0.12 vs 0.13. HAC = score-1: 0.02 vs 0.009, score-6: 0.02 vs 0.01, p-value <0.001).

CONCLUSION

CHA2DS2-VASc score is an easy-to-use tool that predicts poorer outcomes, higher readmission, longer LOS, higher HAC, not just in patients with AF/AFL undergoing CABG, but also in those without AF/AFL.

Risk Scores for Prediction of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication after cardiac surgery and is associated with poor clinical outcomes. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the performance of risk scores to predict POAF in cardiac surgery patients. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL for studies that developed/evaluated a POAF risk prediction model. Pairs of reviewers independently screened studies and extracted data. We pooled area under the receiver operating curves (AUCs), sensitivity and specificity, and adjusted odds ratios from multivariable regression analyses using the generic inverse variance method and random effects models. Forty-three studies (n = 63,847) were included in the quantitative synthesis. Most scores were originally developed for other purposes but evaluated for predicting POAF. Pooled AUC revealed moderate POAF discrimination for the EuroSCORE II (AUC 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54 to 0.65), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (AUC 0.60, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.63), EuroSCORE (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.68), CHADS2 (AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.75), POAF Score (AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.68), HATCH (AUC 0.67, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.75), CHA2DS2-VASc (AUC 0.68, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.75) and SYNTAX scores (AUC 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.78). Pooled analyses at specific cutoffs of the CHA2DS2-VASc, CHADS2, HATCH, and POAF scores demonstrated moderate-to-high sensitivity (range 46% to 87%) and low-to-moderate specificity (range 31% to 70%) for POAF prediction. In conclusion, existing clinical risk scores offer at best moderate prediction for POAF after cardiac surgery. Better models are needed to guide POAF risk stratification in cardiac surgery patients.

Differences in Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation Incidence and Outcomes After Cardiac Surgery According to Assessment Method and Definition: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is the most frequent complication of cardiac surgery. Despite clinical and economic implications, ample variability in POAF assessment method and definition exist across studies. We performed a study-level meta-analysis to evaluate the influence of POAF assessment method and definition on its incidence and association with clinical outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A systematic literature search was conducted to identify studies comparing the outcomes of patients with and without POAF after cardiac surgery that also reported POAF assessment method. The primary outcome was POAF incidence. The secondary outcomes were in-hospital mortality, stroke, intensive care unit length of stay, and postoperative length of stay. Fifty-nine studies totaling 197 774 patients were included. POAF cumulative incidence was 26% (range: 7.3%-53.1%). There were no differences in POAF incidence among assessment methods (27%, [range: 7.3%-53.1%] for continuous telemetry, 27% [range: 7.9%-50%] for telemetry plus daily ECG, and 19% [range: 7.8%-42.4%] for daily ECG only; P>0.05 for all comparisons). No differences in in-hospital mortality, stroke, intensive care unit length of stay, and postoperative length of stay were found between assessment methods. No differences in POAF incidence or any other outcomes were found between POAF definitions. Continuous telemetry and telemetry plus daily ECG were associated with higher POAF incidence compared with daily ECG in studies including only patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting.

CONCLUSIONS

POAF incidence after cardiac surgery remains high, and detection rates are variable among studies. POAF incidence and its association with adverse outcomes are not influenced by the assessment method and definition used, except in patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting.

Incidence, predictors, and outcome for post-operative atrial fibrillation in Indian patients undergoing off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting-a prospective observational study

Purpose

Indian patients who undergo surgical revascularization are relatively younger than their Western counterparts and are predominantly revascularized using off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB) technique. They may therefore be at a reduced risk of developing post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF). The aim of this study was to assess the incidence of POAF, measure its impact on outcomes, and identify the predictors for POAF in the Indian patients undergoing OPCAB. Besides, the ability of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) scores in predicting POAF was also assessed.

Methods

In this prospective observational study, all patients undergoing isolated OPCAB in a single institution over a 12-month period were included. Patients undergoing re-operative surgery, emergency procedure, concomitant surgery, or those with history of previously diagnosed or treated atrial fibrillation were excluded. Logistic regression was performed to identify the predictors of POAF. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the ability of EuroSCORE and STS scores to assess risk of developing POAF.

Results

We recruited 1108 patients in the study of which 88 (7.94%) patients developed POAF. Age (OR = 1.082, p < 0.001, 95%CI: 1.050-1.114), unstable angina (OR = 16.32, p = 0.036, 95%CI: 1.2-221.4), presence of diabetes mellitus (OR 1.781, p = 0.025, 95%CI: 1.074-2.955), left atrial size (OR 2.506, p = 0.001, 95%CI: 1.478-4.251), and presence of chronic renal failure (OR 8.7, p = 0.001, 95%CI: 2.4-31.53) were significant predictors of POAF. Both the EuroSCORE (p = 0.035) and the STS score (p = 0.001) were significantly higher in patients developing POAF. The area under the ROC curve for the EuroSCORE II was 0.62 and for the STS score was 0.64 suggesting satisfactory and similar discriminatory power of both the scores to predict POAF in these patients. POAF was associated with significantly increased adverse outcomes like stroke and prolonged hospital stay.

Conclusions

In our study, the incidence of POAF was much lower (7.94%) than that reported previously. POAF significantly increased adverse outcomes and length of hospital stay. Both EuroSCORE II and STS scores had similar discriminating power in predicting POAF.