Development and validation of a nomogram to individually predict survival of young patients with nonmetastatic gastric cancer: A retrospective cohort study

Survival benefit of younger gastric cancer patients in China and the United States: A comparative study

BACKGROUND

The impact of racial and regional disparity on younger patients with gastric cancer (GC) remains unclear.

AIM

To investigate the clinicopathological characteristics, prognostic nomogram, and biological analysis of younger GC patients in China and the United States.

METHODS

From 2000 to 2018, GC patients aged less than 40 years were enrolled from the China National Cancer Center and the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database. Biological analysis was performed based on the Gene Expression Omnibus database. Survival analysis was conducted via Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

A total of 6098 younger GC patients were selected from 2000 to 2018, of which 1159 were enrolled in the China National Cancer Center, and 4939 were collected from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database. Compared with the United States group, younger patients in China revealed better survival outcomes (P < 0.01). For race/ethnicity, younger Chinese cases also enjoyed a better prognosis than that in White and Black datasets (P < 0.01). After stratification by pathological Tumor-Node-Metastasis (pTNM) stage, a survival advantage was observed in China with pathological stage I, III, and IV (all P < 0.01), whereas younger GC patients with stage II showed no difference (P = 0.16). In multivariate analysis, predictors in China involved period of diagnosis, linitis plastica, and pTNM stage, while race, diagnostic period, sex, location, differentiation, linitis plastica, signet ring cell, pTNM stage, surgery, and chemotherapy were confirmed in the United States group. Prognostic nomograms for younger patients were established, with the area under the curve of 0.786 in the China group and of 0.842 in the United States group. Moreover, three gene expression profiles (GSE27342, GSE51105, and GSE38749) were enrolled in further biological analysis, and distinctive molecular characteristics were identified in younger GC patients among different regions.

CONCLUSION

Except for younger cases with pTNM stage II, a survival advantage was observed in the China group with pathological stage I, III, and IV compared to the United States group, which might be partly due to differences in surgical approaches and the improvement of the cancer screening in China. The nomogram model provided an insightful and applicable tool to evaluate the prognosis of younger patients in China and the United States. Furthermore, biological analysis of younger patients was performed among different regions, which might partly explain the histopathological behavior and survival disparity in the subpopulations.

Multi‑institutional development and validation of a nomogram to predict prognosis of early-onset gastric cancer patients

Background

Early-onset gastric cancer (EOGC, ≤45 years old) is characterized with increasing incidence and more malignant phenotypes compared with late-onset gastric cancer, which exhibits remarkable immune cell infiltration and is potential immunotherapeutic population. Till now, restricted survival information of EOGC is available due to limited case numbers. This study established a novel nomogram to help evaluate cancer-specific survival (CSS) of EOGC patients who underwent gastrectomy, and may provide evidence for predicting patients’ survival.

Methods

We retrospectively enrolled a cohort containing 555 EOGC cases from five independent medical centers in China, among which 388 cases were randomly selected into a training set while the other 167 cases were assigned into the internal validation set. Asian or Pacific Islander (API) patients diagnosed with EOGC during 1975-2016 were retrieved from the SEER database (n=299) and utilized as the external validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to test prognostic significances of clinicopathological factors in the training set. Accordingly, two survival nomogram models were established and compared by concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and decision curve analyses (DCA).

Results

The 5-year CSS rate of training cohort was 61.3% with a median survival time as 97.2 months. High consistency was observed on calibration curves in all three cohorts. Preferred nomogram was selected due to its better performance on ROC and DCA results. Accordingly, a novel predicative risk model was introduced to better stratify high-risk EOGC patients with low-risk patients. In brief, the 5-year CSS rates for low-risk groups were 92.9% in training set, 83.1% in internal validation set, 89.9% in combined NQSQS cohort, and 85.3% in SEER-API cohort. In contrast, the 5-year CSS rates decreased to 38.5%, 44.3%, 40.5%, and 36.9% in the high-risk groups of the four cohorts above, respectively. The significant survival difference between high-risk group (HRG) and low-risk group (LRG) indicated the precise accuracy of our risk model. Furthermore, the risk model was validated in patients with different TNM stages, respectively. Finally, an EOGC web-based survival calculator was established with public access, which can help predict prognosis.

Conclusions

Our data provided a precise nomogram on predicting CSS of EOGC patients with potential clinical applicability.

A novel nomogram model to predict the overall survival of patients with retroperitoneal leiomyosarcoma: a large cohort retrospective study

Retroperitoneal leiomyosarcomas (RLS) are the second most common type of retroperitoneal sarcoma and one of the most aggressive tumours. The lack of early warning signs and delay in regular checkups lead to a poor prognosis. This study aims to create a nomogram to predict RLS patients' overall survival (OS). Patients diagnosed with RLS in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2000 and 2018 were enrolled in this study. First, univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors, followed by constructing a nomogram to predict patients' OS at 1, 3, and 5 years. Secondly, the nomogram's distinguishability and prediction accuracy were assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curves. Finally, the decision curve analysis (DCA) investigated the nomogram's clinical utility. The study included 305 RLS patients, and they were divided into two groups at random: a training set (216) and a validation set (89). The training set's multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that surgery, tumour size, tumour grade, and tumour stage were independent prognostic factors. ROC curves demonstrated that the nomogram had a high degree of distinguishability. In the training set, area under the curve (AUC) values for 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.800, 0.806, and 0.788, respectively, while in the validation set, AUC values for 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.738, 0.780, and 0.832, respectively. As evidenced by the calibration curve, the nomogram had high prediction accuracy. Moreover, DCA revealed that the nomogram had high clinical utility. Furthermore, the risk stratification system based on the nomogram could effectively categorise patients into three mortality risk subgroups. Therefore, the developed nomogram and risk stratification system may aid in optimising the treatment decisions of RLS patients to improve treatment prognosis and maximise their healthcare outcomes.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival in young non-metastatic rectal cancer patients after curative resection: a population-based analysis

PURPOSE

This study aimed to establish and validate a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) in young non-metastatic rectal cancer (RC) patients after curative resection.

METHODS

Young RC patients (under 50 years of age) from 2010 to 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Those patients randomly assigned to a training cohort and a validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. The independent prognostic factors for OS were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. A nomogram model was built based on the independent prognostic variables and was evaluated by concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

A total number of 3026 young RC patients were extracted from SEER database. OS nomogram was constructed based on race, histological type, tumor grade, T stage, N stage, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, and number of lymph nodes (LN) examined. C-index, ROC curves, calibration plot, and DCA curves presented satisfactory performance of the above nomogram in predicting the prognosis of young non-metastatic RC patients after curative resection. The nomogram can identify three subgroups of patients at different risks, which showed different prognostic outcomes both in the training cohort and validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

We successfully established a reliable and insightful nomogram to predict OS for young non-metastatic RC patients after curative resection. The nomogram may provide accurate prognosis prediction to guide individualized follow-up and treatment plans.

The outcome of young vs. old gastric cancer patients following gastrectomy: a propensity score matching analysis

Purpose

The purpose of the current study was to compare the postoperative complications, overall survival and disease-free survival in young and old gastric cancer patients after gastrectomy using propensity score matching (PSM).

Methods

Adult patients (aged ≥ 18 years) who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer in a single clinical center from January 2013 to December 2017 were enrolled continuously for retrospective analysis. To minimize the selection bias between the young and old groups, the PSM was conducted in this study.

Results

A total of 558 patients were included in this study, with 51 patients in the young group (aged ≤ 45 years) and 507 patients in the old group (aged > 45 years). After 1:1 matching according to PSM, 51 patients in the young group were matched to 51 patients in the old group. After PSM, there was no difference in the baseline information. In terms of short-term outcomes, no difference was found in operation time (P = 0.190), intraoperative blood loss (P = 0.336), retrieved lymph nodes (P = 0.948), blood transfusion (P = 0.339), postoperative hospital stay (P = 0.194), or postoperative complications (P = 0.477) between the two groups. For overall survival, no statistically significant difference was found in all stages (P = 0.383), stage I (P = 0.431), stage II (P = 0.875) or stage III (P = 0.446) gastric cancer. Furthermore, regarding disease-free survival, no differences were found between the two groups in all stages (P = 0.378), stage I (P = 0.431), stage II (P = 0.879) or stage III (P = 0.510) gastric cancer.

Conclusion

Age might not be an independent prognostic factor for short-term outcomes, OS, or DFS in gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy. The pTNM stage of GC might be an independent prognostic factor for OS and DFS.

Three-Tier Prognostic Index in Young Adults With Advanced Gastric Cancer

PURPOSE

To characterize clinical features and identify baseline prognostic factors for survival in young adults with advanced gastric cancer (YAAGC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 220 young inpatients (age less than or equal to 40 years) with an initial diagnosis of advanced gastric cancer were retrospectively enrolled in this study.

RESULTS

Of a consecutive cohort of 220 patients with YAAGC, the median overall survival (OS) time was 16.3 months. One-year survival rate was 43.6% (95% CI: 36.5 to 50.7). In this cohort, a female (71.4%, n = 157) predominance and a number of patients with poorly differentiated tumors (95.9%, n = 211) were observed. In the univariate analysis, OS was significantly associated with neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (≥3.12), hypoproteinemia (<40 g/L), presence of peritoneal or bone metastases, and previous gastrectomy of primary tumor or radical gastrectomy. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, hypoproteinemia [hazard ratio (HR) 1.522, 95% CI 1.085 to 2.137, p = 0.015] and high NLR level (HR 1.446, 95% CI 1.022 to 2.047, p = 0.021) were two independent poor prognostic factors, while previous radical gastrectomy was associated with a favorable OS (HR 0.345, 95% CI 0.205 to 0.583, p = 0.000). A three-tier prognostic index was constructed dividing patients into good-, intermediate-, or poor-risk groups. Median OS for good-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups was 36.43, 17.87, and 11.27 months, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Three prognostic factors were identified, and a three-tier prognostic index was devised. The reported prognostic index may aid clinical decision-making, patient risk stratification, and planning of future clinical studies on YAAGC.

Comprehensive analysis of a 14 immune-related gene pair signature to predict the prognosis and immune features of gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

As a new method for predicting tumor prognosis, the predictive effect of immune-related gene pairs (IRGPs) has been confirmed in several cancers, but there is no comprehensive analysis of the clinical significance of IRGPs in gastric cancer (GC).

METHOD

Clinical and gene expression profile data of GC patients were obtained from the GEO database. Based on the ImmPort database, differentially expressed immune-related gene (DEIRG) events were determined by a comparison of GC samples and adjacent normal samples. Cox proportional regression was used to construct an IRGP signature, and its availability was validated using three external validation datasets. In addition, we explored the association between clinical data and immune features and established a nomogram to predict outcomes in GC patients.

RESULT

A total of 88 DEIRGs were identified in GC from the training set, which formed 3828 IRGPs. Fourteen overall survival (OS)-related IRGPs were used to construct the prognostic signature. As a result, patients in the high-risk group exhibited poorer OS compared to those in the low-risk group. In addition, the fraction of CD8+ T cells, plasma cells, CD4 memory activated T cells, and M1 macrophages was higher in the high-risk group. Expression of two immune checkpoints, CD276 and VTCN1, was significantly higher in the high-risk group as well. Based on the independent prognostic factors, a nomogram was established and showed excellent performance.

CONCLUSION

The 14 OS-related IRGP signature was associated with OS, immune cells, and immune checkpoints in GC patients, and it could provide the basis for related immunotherapy.

The incidence, risk factors and predictive nomograms for early death among patients with stage IV gastric cancer: a population-based study

Background

Although advances in the treatment of stage IV gastric cancer (GC) patients, some patients were observed to die within 3 months of initial diagnosis. The present study aimed to explore the early mortality and risk factors for stage IV GC and further develop nomograms.

Methods

A total of 2,174 eligible stage IV GC patients were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors and develop the nomograms to predict all-cause early death and cancer-specific early death. The predictive performance of the nomograms was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), calibration plots and decision curve analyses (DCA) in both training and validation cohorts.

Results

Of 2,174 patients enrolled, 708 died within 3 months of initial diagnosis (n=668 for cancer-specific early death). Early mortality remained stable from 2010-2015. Non-Asian or Pacific Islander (API) race, poorer differentiation, middle sites of the stomach, no surgery, no radiotherapy, no chemotherapy, lung metastases and liver metastases were associated with high risk of both all-causes early death and cancer-specific early death. The nomograms constructed based on these factors showed favorable sensitivity, with the area under the ROC range of 0.816-0.847. The calibration curves and DCAs also exhibited adequate fit and ideal net benefit in prediction and clinical application.

Conclusions

Approximately one-third of stage IV GC patients experienced early death. These associated risk factors and predictive nomograms may help clinicians identify the patients at high risk of early death and be the reference for treatment choices.

A nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with uterine leiomyosarcoma: a SEER population-based study

Aim: To establish and validate a nomogram for the estimation of overall survival of patients with uterine leiomyosarcoma (uLMS). Methods: Information on patients diagnosed as uLMS was retrospectively retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The patients were randomly assigned into the training and the validation cohorts. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine the independent prognostic factors for building a nomogram for predicting overall survival. The predictive accuracy was evaluated based on the concordance indices and the calibration plots. Results: A nomogram that combined age, marital status, tumor size, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result stage, surgery and radiation was established. The internal and external concordance indices were 0.748 and 0.745, respectively. The calibration plots approached 45 degrees. Conclusion: The nomogram might be an effective tool for predicting the survival of patients with uLMS.

Gastric Cancer in Young Adults: A Different Clinical Entity from Carcinogenesis to Prognosis

Approximately 5.0% of gastric cancer (GC) patients are diagnosed before the age of 40 and are not candidates for screening programs in most countries and regions. The incidence of gastric cancer in young adults (GCYA) has declined over time in most countries except in the United States. Genetic alterations, environmental factors, and lifestyle may predispose some young adults to GC. According to molecular classifications, the cancer of most GCYA patients belongs to the genomically stable or microsatellite stable/epithelial-mesenchymal transition subtype, with the common genetic aberrations being mutations in CDH1. What characterizes GCYA are a higher prevalence in females, more aggressive tumor behaviors, diagnosis at advanced stages, fewer comorbidities and being better treatment candidates, and a similar or better survival outcome when compared with older patients. Considering the greater loss of life-years in younger patients, lowering the incidence of GC and diagnosing at a relatively early stage are the two most effective ways to decrease GC mortality. To achieve these goals, the low awareness of GCYA among general people, policy-makers, clinicians, and researchers should be changed.

Prognostic nomogram based on log odds of positive lymph nodes for gastric carcinoma patients after surgical resection

Aim: To build a prognostic nomogram based on log odds of positive lymph nodes for patients with gastric carcinoma (GC) after resection, and to compare the predictive performance with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system and lymph node ratio (LNR). Methods: Multivariate analyses were performed to identify the independent variables for cancer-specific survival (CSS). A nomogram was constructed based on independent clinicopathological factors. Results: The C-indices for predicting CSS were 0.674 in development cohort and 0.647 in validation cohort, which were higher than that of the AJCC staging system and LNR. Conclusion: The nomogram was more accurate than the AJCC staging system and LNR for predicting CSS in patients undergoing resection for GC.