Prognostic Scoring Index for Patients with Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

Clinical Outcomes of Proton Beam Therapy for Unresectable Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer: A Single-Center Retrospective Study

Purpose

We retrospectively researched the treatment outcome of proton beam therapy (PBT) and assessed its efficacy for inoperable locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) at our institution.

Methods and Materials

Fifty-four patients (28 men and 26 women, median age 67 years ranging from 40-88 years) were diagnosed with unresectable stage III LAPC and administered PBT from April 2009 to March 2020. Patients who could not complete PBT, had new distant metastases during the treatment, or did not have enough follow-up time were excluded from this study. All patients were clinically staged based on the International Union of Cancer TNM staging system (eighth edition) using computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and positron emission tomography and were diagnosed as stage III (histologic type: 18 patients with adenocarcinoma and 36 clinically diagnosed patients). PBT was performed using the passive method, with a median total dose of 67.5 GyE (range, 50-77 GyE/25-35 fractions).Chemotherapy was used in combination during PBT in 46 patients (85.2%). Overall survival (OS), local progression-free survival (LPFS), progression-free survival, and median OS time were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed for the following factors: maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), Eastern Cooperative Group performance status (PS), tumor site, total irradiation dose, concurrent chemotherapy, and primary tumor site. Cutoff values for SUVmax and tumor diameter were estimated using receiver operating characteristic curves and the area under the curve based on OS. Multivariate analysis was evaluated using the Cox proportional hazards models. Adverse events were evaluated using the National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 5.0.

Results

The median observation period was 17.4 months, ranging from 4.0 to 89.7 months. The median tumor diameter was 36.5 mm, ranging from 15 to 90 mm, the median SUVmax was 5.85 (range, 2.1-27.6), and their cutoff values were estimated to be 37 mm and 4.8 mm, respectively. The 1- and 2-year OS was 77.8% and 35.2%, respectively, with a median OS time of 18.2 months, and only one patient survived >5 years. Twelve patients (22.2%) developed local recurrence, and 1- and 2-year LPFS rates were 89.7% and 74.5%, respectively; progression-free survival at 1 year was 58.8%. The PS score, tumor site, and irradiation dose were the prognostic factors related to OS that showed a significant difference. On the other hand, there was a significant difference in factors involved in LPFS, at 96.7%/77.9% in the first year and 86.6%/54.4% in the second year in the groups with tumor dose ≥67.5 GyE and <67.5 GyE, respectively (P = .015). Treatment-related acute toxicities were neutropenia (grade 1/2/3 at 3.7%/11.1%/31.5%, respectively), leukopenia (grade 1/2/3 at 1.8%/7.4%/20.4%, respectively), and thrombocytopenia (grade 1/2 at 1.8%/7.4%, respectively), whereas the late effects including peptic ulcer were captured only grade 2+. The late adverse events of grade 3 or higher were not observed.

Conclusions

PBT achieving 67.5 Gy combined with standard chemotherapy showed excellent local control for unresectable LAPC. Total irradiation dose, tumor site, and PS score at an initial diagnosis could be important prognostic factors. In this study, the dose-effect relationship was found, so an increase in dose should be considered to improve prognosis.

Glucose-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (GLR) as an Independent Prognostic Factor in Patients with Resected Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma-Cohort Study

Background: We retrospectively evaluated the usefulness of an elevated glucose-to-lymphocyte ratio (GLR) as a sensitive prognostic biomarker of disease-specific survival in 338 patients who underwent surgical resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Methods: The optimal GLR cutoff value was determined using the method of Contal and O'Quigley. Patient demographics, clinical information, and imaging data were analyzed to identify preoperative predictors of long-term survival outcomes. Results: Elevated GLR correlated significantly with aggressive tumor biologic behaviors, such as a high carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 level (p = 0.003) and large tumor size (p = 0.011). Multivariate analysis identified (1) GLR > 92.72 [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.475, p < 0.001], (2) CA 19-9 level > 145.35 (HR = 1.577, p = 0.068), and (3) symptoms (p = 0.064) as independent predictors of long-term, cancer-specific survival. These three risk factors were used to group patients into groups 1 (0 factors), 2 (1-2 factors), and 3 (3 factors), which corresponded to significantly different 5-year overall survival rates (50.2%, 34.6%, and 11.7%, respectively; p < 0.001). Conclusions: An elevated preoperative GLR is associated with aggressive tumor characteristics and is an independent predictor of poor postoperative prognosis in patients with PDAC. Further prospective studies are required to verify these findings.

Development of a Clinical-Biological Model to Assess Tumor Progression in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer: Post Hoc Analysis of the PRODIGE4/ACCORD11 Trial

Background: The follow-up of pancreatic cancer (PC) is based on computed tomography (CT) assessment; however, there is no consensus on the use of clinical and biological criteria in tumor progression. We aimed to establish a clinical−biological model to highlight the progression of metastatic PC during first-line treatment. Methods: The patients treated with first-line chemotherapy in the phase 2/3 PRODIGE4/ACCORD11 clinical trial were evaluated retrospectively. Clinical and biological markers were evaluated at the time of CT scans and during treatment to determine tumor progression. Results: In total, 196 patients were analyzed, with 355 available tumor assessments. The clinical and biological factors associated with tumor progression in multivariate analysis included gemcitabine, global health status ≤ 33 (OR = 3.38, 95%CI [1.15; 9.91], p = 0.028), quality of life score between 34 and 66 (OR = 2.65, 95%CI [1.06; 6.59], p = 0.037), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) ≥ 3 times the standard value without any increase in the CEA level from inclusion (OR = 2.22, 95%CI [1.01; 4.89], p = 0.048) and with an increase in the CEA level from inclusion (OR = 6.56, 95%CI [2.73; 15.78], p < 0.001), and an increase in the carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level from inclusion (OR = 2.59, 95%CI [1.25; 5.36], p = 0.016). Conclusions: The self-assessment of patients’ general health status alongside tumor markers is an interesting approach to the diagnosis of the tumor progression of metastatic pancreatic cancer patients during first-line treatment.

Predictors of Mortality in Patients with Advanced Cancer-A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

To timely initiate advance care planning in patients with advanced cancer, physicians should identify patients with limited life expectancy. We aimed to identify predictors of mortality. To identify the relevant literature, we searched Embase, MEDLINE, Cochrane Central, Web of Science, and PubMed databases between January 2000-April 2020. Identified studies were assessed on risk-of-bias with a modified QUIPS tool. The main outcomes were predictors and prediction models of mortality within a period of 3-24 months. We included predictors that were studied in ≥2 cancer types in a meta-analysis using a fixed or random-effects model and summarized the discriminative ability of models. We included 68 studies (ranging from 42 to 66,112 patients), of which 24 were low risk-of-bias, and 39 were included in the meta-analysis. Using a fixed-effects model, the predictors of mortality were: the surprise question, performance status, cognitive impairment, (sub)cutaneous metastases, body mass index, comorbidity, serum albumin, and hemoglobin. Using a random-effects model, predictors were: disease stage IV (hazard ratio [HR] 7.58; 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.00-14.36), lung cancer (HR 2.51; 95% CI 1.24-5.06), ECOG performance status 1+ (HR 2.03; 95% CI 1.44-2.86) and 2+ (HR 4.06; 95% CI 2.36-6.98), age (HR 1.20; 95% CI 1.05-1.38), male sex (HR 1.24; 95% CI 1.14-1.36), and Charlson comorbidity score 3+ (HR 1.60; 95% CI 1.11-2.32). Thirteen studies reported on prediction models consisting of different sets of predictors with mostly moderate discriminative ability. To conclude, we identified reasonably accurate non-tumor specific predictors of mortality. Those predictors could guide in developing a more accurate prediction model and in selecting patients for advance care planning.

Inflammatory Biomarker Score Identifies Patients with Six-Fold Increased Risk of One-Year Mortality after Pancreatic Cancer

Simple Summary

For 20 years, the CA 19-9 blood test has been the only broadly used biomarker of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We lack easily available biomarkers to help differentiate patients between good, intermediate and poor survivors at the time of PDAC diagnosis. Using one of the largest studies of patients with PDAC, we found that a simple combination of blood tests, namely CRP, CA 19-9 and IL-6, into a single biomarker score was a better marker of one-year survival than the currently recommended CA 19-9 alone or any other combination of the four inflammatory biomarkers examined (CRP, CA 19-9, IL-6 and YKL-40). However, since this is the first study examining this inflammatory biomarker score, future validation studies are needed. Moreover, CRP outperformed CA 19-9 in the majority of patients, thus questioning the routine use of CA 19-9 in patients with PDAC.

Abstract

We examined whether elevated plasma C-reactive protein (CRP), carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9, interleukin-6 (IL-6) and YKL-40, individually or combined, can identify poor survivors among patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We measured CRP, CA 19-9, IL-6 and YKL-40 in 993 patients at the time of PDAC diagnosis. The biomarker score was the sum of biomarker categories, coded 0, 1 and 2 for low, intermediate and high plasma concentrations, respectively. High vs. low levels of CRP, CA 19-9 and IL-6 were each independently associated with a two-fold increased risk of one-year mortality. CRP performed best in patients with advanced and CA 19-9 in patients with low cancer stages. YKL-40 was not associated with mortality and, therefore, was not included in the biomarker score. Compared to the biomarker score = 0, the multifactorially adjusted hazard ratios for one-year mortality were 1.56 (95% confidence interval: 0.99–2.44) for score = 1, 2.22 (1.41–3.49) for score = 2, 3.44 (2.20–5.38) for score = 3, 5.13 (3.21–8.17) for score = 4 and 6.32 (3.84–10.41) for score = 5–6 (p-value for trend = 3 × 10⁻³¹). This score performed better than any single biomarker or combination of biomarkers when examined in similarly sized or other categories. In conclusion, a combination score of elevated CRP, CA 19-9 and IL-6 identified patients with six-fold higher one-year mortality.

Peripheral Blood Cell Variables Related to Systemic Inflammation in Patients With Unresectable or Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

ABSTRACT

Systemic inflammatory response (SIR) plays a central role in the prognosis of unresectable or metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (mPDAC), and many SIR-related peripheral blood cell (PBC)-derived variables have been proposed as prognostic factors. The study aims to perform a systematic review and, for the more studied PBC-derived variables, a meta-analysis. A systematic review from 2000 to 2020 on 2 databases by predefined criteria was performed for PBC-derived variables in patients with mPDAC receiving chemotherapy in relation with overall survival. Eligible studies were selected by inclusion criteria, and only the PBC variables reported in at least 10 studies were evaluated by meta-analysis. Three hundred and eighty articles were found, and 28 studies were selected. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were reported in 28 and 10 articles, respectively. The subsequent meta-analyses supported the prognostic effect for both, NLR (hazard ratio, 2.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.87-2.37) and PLR (hazard ratio, 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.37). Heterogeneity was significant for NLR (I2 = 62%) and low for PLR (I2 = 24%). Among SIR-related PBC-derived variables, NLR is the most suitable prognostic factor for future clinical trials of patients with mPDAC.

The Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio is a Prognostic Biomarker in An Ethnically Diverse Patient Population with Advanced Pancreatic Cancer

PURPOSE

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is associated with decreased overall survival in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PAC) in studies including few minority patients. We investigated the association between NLR and survival in patients with advanced PAC in an ethnically diverse population.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 226 patients with advanced PAC treated at Montefiore Medical Center between 2006 and 2015. Adjusted Cox proportion hazard regression models were utilized to derive effect estimates for survival duration.

RESULTS

Patients with a NLR ≤ 5 (126 patients, median age 66 years) were more likely to be non-Hispanic Black (30.8% vs. 20%), while patients with a NLR > 5 (70 patients, median age 66 years) were more likely to be non-Hispanic White (21.4% vs. 12.2%) or Hispanic (44.3% vs. 34%). A NLR > 5 compared with a NLR ≤ 5 was significantly associated with a worse overall survival when adjusted for a priori and exploratory variables from the univariate analysis (median survival 7.4 vs. 12 months, HR 1.650, 95% CI 1.139, 2.390).

CONCLUSIONS

In an ethnically diverse population, elevated NLR is an independent marker of poor prognosis and a potentially valuable factor in driving therapeutic decisions and defining prognosis for patients in the locally advanced or metastatic for PAC setting, meriting investigation in prospective clinical trials.

Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index and Changes of Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio as Prognostic Biomarkers for Patients With Pancreatic Cancer Treated With Immune Checkpoint Blockade

The efficacy of current treatment regimens for pancreatic cancer (PC) remains unsatisfactory. In recent years, immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapy has shown promising anti-tumor outcomes in many malignancies, including PC. Inexpensive and readily available biomarkers which predict therapeutic responses and prognosis are in critical need. Systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) are emerging predictors for prognosis of various tumors. We aim to investigate the prognostic significance of baseline SII, NLR, and their changes in PC patients treated with ICB. Our retrospective analysis included PC patients treated with ICB therapy in the Chinese PLA General Hospital. All demographic, biological, and clinical data were extracted from medical records. Relative changes of SII after two doses of ICB were defined as ΔSII% and calculated as (SII_{after 2 doses}-SII_baseline)/SII_baseline, and so was the case for ΔNLR%. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were compared using Kaplan-Meier curves. The prognostic significance of baseline SII, NLR, and their changes was assessed in univariate and multivariate analyses using the Cox proportional hazard regression model. In total, 122 patients with PC treated with ICB were included in the present analysis. Elevated baseline SII (HR=3.28; 95% CI:1.98–5.27; P=0.03) and ΔNLR% (HR=2.21; 95% CI:1.03–4.74; P=0.04) were significantly correlated with an increased risk of death. For PC patients receiving ICB combined with chemotherapies or radiotherapies as the first-line treatment, increased baseline SII was a negative predictor for both OS (HR=8.06; 95% CI:1.71–37.86; P=0.01) and PFS (HR=2.84; 95%CI:1.37–10.38; P=0.04). Our study reveals the prognostic value of baseline SII and NLR changes in PC patients receiving ICB therapy. The clinical utility of these prognostic biomarkers needs to be further studied in prospective studies.

Predicting mortality and adverse events in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer treated with palliative gemcitabine-based chemotherapy in a multicentre phase III randomized clinical trial: the APC-SAKK risk scores

Background

The prognosis of advanced pancreatic cancer (APC) is poor and differs considerably among patients. Therefore, it is clinically relevant to identify patients with APC who are more likely to benefit from palliative chemotherapy with reduced risk of toxicity. To date, there is no prognostic score universally recommended to help clinicians in planning the therapeutic management.

Methods

Using individual patient data from 319 cases of APC treated with gemcitabine-based chemotherapy and enrolled in the SAKK 44/00-CECOG/PAN.1.3.001 randomized trial, several baseline variables, including inflammatory markers, were analysed post hoc as predictors of mortality and/or grade 3 or 4 chemotherapy-related toxicity and separate risk scores were developed.

Results

Median survival of the study patients was 7.9 months (interquartile range 3.7-13.3 months). Independent predictors of mortality included increased Aspartate transaminase (ASAT), low performance status, increased derived neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, increased Carbohydrate Antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9), low haemoglobin, presence of pain, presence of metastasis and increased alkaline phosphatase (ALP). During the study, 117 patients experienced at least one grade 3 or 4 adverse event. Independent predictors of toxicity included white blood cells, ALP, renal function and bilirubin levels at baseline. Both models displayed moderate levels of discrimination (C-statistic 0.68 and 0.64 for mortality and toxicity, respectively) and adequate calibration.

Conclusions

We developed simple-to-use prognostic scores for mortality and severe toxicity for patients with APC. These scores can be useful in daily practice to identify patients with increased risk of death or toxicity and to plan the most appropriate therapeutic strategy to improve survival and quality of life. Further prospective studies to validate such scores are needed.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as prognostic indicator in gastrointestinal cancers: a systematic review and meta-analysis

An accurate, time efficient, and inexpensive prognostic indicator is needed to reduce cost and assist with clinical decision making for cancer management. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), which is derived from common serum testing, has been explored in a variety of cancers. We sought to determine its prognostic value in gastrointestinal cancers and performed a meta-analysis of published studies using the Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology guidelines. Included were randomized control trials and observational studies that analyzed humans with gastrointestinal cancers that included NLR and hazard ratios (HR) with overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), progression-free survival (PFS), and/or cancer-specific survival (CSS).

We analyzed 144 studies comprising 45,905 patients, two-thirds of which were published after 2014. The mean, median, and mode cutoffs for NLR reporting OS from multivariate models were 3.4, 3.0, 5.0 (±IQR 2.5-5.0), respectively. Overall, NLR greater than the cutoff was associated with a HR for OS of 1.63 (95% CI, 1.53-1.73; P < 0.001). This association was observed in all subgroups based on tumor site, stage, and geographic region. HR for elevated NLR for DFS, PFS, and CSS were 1.70 (95% CI, 1.52-1.91, P < 0.001), 1.64 (95% CI, 1.36-1.97, P < 0.001), and 1.83 (95% CI, 1.50-2.23, P < 0.001), respectively.

Available evidence suggests that NLR greater than the cutoff reduces OS, independent of geographic location, gastrointestinal cancer type, or stage of cancer. Furthermore, DFS, PFS, and CSS also have worse outcomes with elevated NLR.

A Contemporary Review of the Treatment Landscape and the Role of Predictive and Prognostic Biomarkers in Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

Pancreatic cancer continues to represent one of the leading causes of cancer-related morbidity and mortality in the developed world. Over the past decade, novel systemic therapy combination regimens have contributed to clinically meaningful and statistically significant improvements in overall survival as compared to conventional monotherapy. However, the prognosis for most patients remains guarded secondary to the advanced stages of disease at presentation. There is growing consensus that outcomes can be further optimized with the use of predictive and prognostic biomarkers whereby the former can be enriching for patients who would benefit from therapies and the latter can inform decision-making regarding the need and timing of advanced care planning. One of the challenges of current biomarkers is the lack of standardization across clinical practices such that comparability between jurisdictions can be difficult or even impossible. This inconsistency can impede widespread implementation of their use. In this review article, we provide a comprehensive overview of the contemporary treatment options for pancreatic cancer and we offer some insights into the existing landscape and future directions of biomarker development for this disease.

Declined Preoperative Aspartate Aminotransferase to Neutrophil Ratio Index Predicts Poor Prognosis in Patients with Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma after Hepatectomy

Purpose

Various inflammation-based prognostic biomarkers such as the platelet to lymphocyte ratio and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, are related to poor survival in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). This study aims to investigate the prognostic value of the aspartate aminotransferase to neutrophil ratio index (ANRI) in ICC after hepatic resection.

Materials and Methods

Data of 184 patients with ICC after hepatectomy were retrospectively reviewed. The cut-off value of ANRIwas determined by a receiver operating characteristic curve. Preoperative ANRI and clinicopathological variables were analyzed. The predictive value of preoperative ANRI for prognosis of ICC was identified by univariate and multivariate analyses.

Results

The optimal cut-off value of ANRI was 6.7. ANRI was associated with tumor size, tumor recurrence, white blood cell, neutrophil count, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine transaminase. Univariate analysis showed that ANRI, sex, tumor number, tumor size, tumor differentiation, lymph node metastasis, resection margin, clinical TNM stage, neutrophil count, and carcinoembryonic antigen were markedly correlated with overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with ICC. Multivariable analyses revealed that ANRI, a tumor size > 6 cm, poor tumor differentiation, and an R1 resection margin were independent prognostic factors for both OS and DFS. Additionally, preoperative ANRI also had a significant value to predict prognosis in various subgroups of ICC, including serum hepatitis B surface antigen‒negative and preoperative elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9 patients.

Conclusion

Preoperative declined ANRI is a noninvasive, simple, and effective predictor of poor prognosis in patients with ICC after hepatectomy.

Preoperative Neutrophil-Lymphocyte and Lymphocyte-Monocyte Ratios Reflect Immune Cell Population Rearrangement in Resectable Pancreatic Cancer

BACKGROUND

Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR) may serve as a simple index of the immune function. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic significance of NLR, PLR, and LMR in patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and to verify whether such biomarkers are associated with changes in populations of lymphoid cells.

METHODS

The prognostic implications of blood count parameters were evaluated in a retrospective cohort of 442 subjects undergoing pancreatic resections for PDAC. Subpopulations of lymphocytes and monocytes in peripheral blood were identified by FACS in a prospective cohort of 54 patients.

RESULTS

In the univariate analysis, NLR < 5 and LMR ≥ 3 were associated with significantly longer median survival of 25.7 vs 12.6 months and 29.2 vs 13.1 months, respectively. PLR did not influence survival. The Cox proportional hazards model showed that high NLR (HR 1.66, 95 % CI 1.12 to 2.46, P = 0.012) and low LMR (HR 1.65, 95 % CI 1.06 to 2.58, P = 0.026) were independent predictors of poor prognosis. NLR ≥ 5 and LMR < 3 correlated with an approximately twofold decrease in counts of helper and cytotoxic T cells, B cells, and NK cells. High NLR was also accompanied with increased neutrophil counts, while low LMR showed increased numbers of monocytes, mostly classical.

CONCLUSIONS

NLR and LMR may carry important prognostic information for patients with resected PDAC. The unfavorable prognosis likely correlates with reduced numbers of immune cells effective against the tumor and increased populations of cells involved in immune suppression.