Importance of neutralization sieve analyses when seeking correlates of HIV-1 vaccine efficacy

Application of the SLAPNAP statistical learning tool to broadly neutralizing antibody HIV prevention research

Combination monoclonal broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) regimens are in clinical development for HIV prevention, necessitating additional knowledge of bnAb neutralization potency/breadth against circulating viruses. Williamson et al. (2021) described a software tool, Super LeArner Prediction of NAb Panels (SLAPNAP), with application to any HIV bnAb regimen with sufficient neutralization data against a set of viruses in the Los Alamos National Laboratory's Compile, Neutralize, and Tally Nab Panels repository. SLAPNAP produces a proteomic antibody resistance (PAR) score for Env sequences based on predicted neutralization resistance and estimates variable importance of Env amino acid features. We apply SLAPNAP to compare HIV bnAb regimens undergoing clinical testing, finding improved power for downstream sieve analyses and increased precision for comparing neutralization potency/breadth of bnAb regimens due to the inclusion of PAR scores of Env sequences with much larger sample sizes available than for neutralization outcomes. SLAPNAP substantially improves bnAb regimen characterization, ranking, and down-selection.

A unified evaluation of differential vaccine efficacy

Many infectious diseases are well prevented by proper vaccination. However, when a vaccine is not completely efficacious, there is great interest in determining how the vaccine effect differs in subgroups conditional on measured immune responses postvaccination and also according to the type of infecting agent (eg, strain of a virus). The former is often called correlate of protection (CoP) analysis, while the latter has been called sieve analysis. We propose a unified framework for simultaneously assessing CoP and sieve effects of a vaccine in a large Phase III randomized trial. We use flexible parametric models treating times to infection from different agents as competing risks and estimated maximum likelihood to fit the models. The parametric models under competing risks allow for estimation of both cumulative incidence-based contrasts and instantaneous rates. We outline the assumptions with which we can link the observable data to the causal contrasts of interest, propose hypothesis testing procedures, and evaluate our proposed methods in an extensive simulation study.

Basis and Statistical Design of the Passive HIV-1 Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) Test-of-Concept Efficacy Trials

BACKGROUND

Anti-HIV-1 broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) have been developed as potential agents for prevention of HIV-1 infection. The HIV Vaccine Trials Network and the HIV Prevention Trials Network are conducting the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials to assess whether, and how, intravenous infusion of the anti-CD4 binding site bnAb, VRC01, prevents HIV-1 infection. These are the first test-of-concept studies to assess HIV-1 bnAb prevention efficacy in humans.

METHODS

The AMP trials are two parallel phase 2b HIV-1 prevention efficacy trials conducted in two cohorts: 2700 HIV-uninfected men and transgender persons who have sex with men in the United States, Peru, Brazil, and Switzerland; and 1500 HIV-uninfected sexually active women in seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Participants are randomized 1:1:1 to receive an intravenous infusion of 10 mg/kg VRC01, 30 mg/kg VRC01, or a control preparation every 8 weeks for a total of 10 infusions. Each trial is designed (1) to assess overall prevention efficacy (PE) pooled over the two VRC01 dose groups vs. control and (2) to assess VRC01 dose and laboratory markers as correlates of protection (CoPs) against overall and genotype- and phenotype-specific infection.

RESULTS

Each AMP trial is designed to have 90% power to detect PE > 0% if PE is ≥ 60%. The AMP trials are also designed to identify VRC01 properties (i.e., concentration and effector functions) that correlate with protection and to provide insight into mechanistic CoPs. CoPs are assessed using data from breakthrough HIV-1 infections, including genetic sequences and sensitivities to VRC01-mediated neutralization and Fc effector functions.

CONCLUSIONS

The AMP trials test whether VRC01 can prevent HIV-1 infection in two study populations. If affirmative, they will provide information for estimating the optimal dosage of VRC01 (or subsequent derivatives) and identify threshold levels of neutralization and Fc effector functions associated with high-level protection, setting a benchmark for future vaccine evaluation and constituting a bridge to other bnAb approaches for HIV-1 prevention.

Breakthrough Virus Neutralization Resistance as a Correlate of Protection in a Nonhuman Primate Heterologous Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Vaccine Challenge Study

Comprehensive assessments of immune correlates of protection in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) vaccine trials are essential to vaccine design. Neutralization sieve analysis compares the neutralization sensitivity of the breakthrough transmitted/founder (TF) viruses from vaccinated and control animals to infer the molecular mechanisms of vaccine protection. Here, we report a robust neutralization sieve effect in a nonhuman primate simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) vaccine trial (DNA prime/recombinant adenovirus type 5 [rAd5] boost) (VRC-10-332) that demonstrated substantial protective efficacy and revealed a genetic signature of neutralization resistance in the C1 region of env. We found significant enrichment for neutralization resistance in the vaccine compared to control breakthrough TF viruses when tested with plasma from vaccinated study animals, plasma from chronically SIV-infected animals, and a panel of SIV-specific monoclonal antibodies targeting six discrete Env epitopes (P < 0.008 for all comparisons). Neutralization resistance was significantly associated with the previously identified genetic signature of resistance (P < 0.0001), and together, the results identify virus neutralization as a correlate of protection. These findings further demonstrate the in vivo relevance of our previous in vitro analyses of the SIVsmE660 challenge stock, which revealed a broad range of neutralization sensitivities of its component viruses. In sum, this report demonstrates proof-of-concept that phenotypic sieve analyses can elucidate mechanistic correlates of immune protection following vaccination and raises a cautionary note for SIV and SHIV (simian-human immunodeficiency virus) vaccine studies that employ challenge strains with envelope glycoproteins that fail to exhibit neutralization resistance profiles typical of TF viruses.

IMPORTANCE

With more than 2 million new infections annually, the development of an effective vaccine against HIV-1 is a global health priority. Understanding immunologic correlates of protection generated in vaccine trials is critical to advance vaccine development. Here, we assessed the role of vaccine-elicited neutralizing antibodies in a recent nonhuman primate study of a vaccine that showed significant protection against simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) challenge and suggested a genetic signature of neutralization sensitivity. We found that breakthrough viruses able to establish infection in vaccinated animals were substantially more resistant to antibody-mediated neutralization than were viruses from controls. These findings suggest that vaccine-elicited neutralizing antibodies selectively blocked the transmission of more sensitive challenge viruses. Sieve analysis also corroborated a genetic signature of neutralization sensitivity and highlighted the impact of challenge swarm diversity. Our findings suggest an important role for neutralization sieve analyses as an informative component of comprehensive immune-correlates analyses.