Effectiveness of vaccination against varicella in children under 5 years in Puglia, Italy 2006-2012

A population database analysis to estimate the varicella vaccine effectiveness in children < 14 years in a high vaccination coverage area from 2004 to 2022

INTRODUCTION

In the Veneto Region of Italy, universal varicella vaccination (VV) started in 2007 with a two-dose schedule at 12-15 months and 5-6 years of age achieving 90 % coverage in 2019. The study aimed at evaluating the vaccine effectiveness (VE) in children using a primary-care database METHODS: This retrospective analysis used Pedianet, a comprehensive database of 73 family paediatricians in the Veneto Region. Incidence rates (IR) of varicella were evaluated in children aged <14 years enrolled since birth, between January 2004 to April 2022. Cases were classified as breakthrough if happening beyond 42 days post-VV. Complications and prescription were evaluated. Subject were followed up from 2004 or the enrollment date, until the end of assistance/study or the first or second VV dose. Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests were used to compare the varicella incidence by vaccination status. Hazard ratios of varicella infection, adjusted (aHRs) for sex, vaccinal status, age group, prematurity and socioeconomic status were estimated with Cox's regression. VE for one and two VV doses was defined as 1-aHR*.

RESULTS

36,498 children, followed for 233,508 person-years from 2004 to 2022 experienced 1006 cases of varicella (13 complicated and 35 breakthrough). Younger children had a higher risk of experiencing varicella compared to children aged >7 years, irrespective of their vaccination status. Indeed, the IR increased from 5.5 to 19.5 × 1000 person-years and from 1.1 to 5.4 × 1000 person-years in unvaccinated and vaccinated children aged <12 months versus those aged 5-6 years, respectively. Varicella VE was 83.4 % and 94.7 % in those vaccinated with one and two doses. After six years, the cumulative probability of experiencing varicella was 10.7 % for unvaccinated subjects, and 2.5 % and 0.4 % for those vaccinated with one and two-doses (log-rank test, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Two-dose schedule VV is effective in drastically reduce varicella episodes. Breakthrough varicella episodes remain rare events.

Effectiveness of the combined MMRV Priorix-Tetra™ vaccine against varicella in a large Italian region: A case-control study

Priorix-Tetra™ (MMRV GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals' vaccine) was developed based on the existing measles-mumps-rubella and varicella vaccines. In this study, we aimed to estimate the effectiveness of the combined measles-mumps-rubella-varicella Priorix-Tetra™ vaccine against varicella in real-world conditions. We conducted a post-marketing retrospective case-control study in the Apulia region of Italy in children aged 1-9 years born between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2016. We assessed the effectiveness against varicella of all grades of severity (including hospitalisation) and against hospitalisation for varicella of a single and two doses of Priorix-Tetra™. Moreover, we also assessed effectiveness of monovalent varicella (monovalent-V) vaccine and any varicella vaccines. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated as (1-OR) x 100. We introduced demographic variables in the model to adjust Vaccine effectiveness (aVE) by potential confounders (sex and year of birth). We recorded 625 varicella cases and matched them with 1,875 controls. Among 625 cases, 198 had received a single MMRV dose, 10 two MMRV doses, 46 a single monovalent-V dose, none two monovalent-V doses; four a monovalent-V as first dose and MMRV as second dose, and one a MMRV as first dose and monovalent-V as second dose; 366 cases were not vaccinated. The aVE against varicella of all grades of severity was 77.0% and 93.0% after a single dose and after two doses of MMRV, respectively. The aVE against varicella of all grades was 72.0% after a single dose of monovalent-V vaccine. The aVE against varicella of all grades of severity was 76.0% after a single dose and 94.0% after two doses of any varicella vaccine. The aVE against varicella hospitalisation was 96% after a single dose of any varicella vaccine. Priorix-Tetra™ showed to be an effective vaccine and the two-dose schedule should be recommended to optimise immunisation programmes. A single dose was able to provide protection against varicella hospitalisation.

Decline in varicella cases contacting primary health care after introduction of varicella vaccination in Finland - A population-based register study

A two-dose varicella vaccination programme at the age of 18 months and 6 years started in September 2017 in Finland with catch-up vaccinations, based on earlier modelling results, for children <12 years (born in 2006 or later) with no history of varicella. Nationwide population-based register data were used to assess the age-specific vaccination coverage and the annual incidence rates of varicella cases contacting public primary health care in 2014-2020. Age-specific incidence rates after (2022) and before (2014-2016) the implementation of the vaccination programme was compared by incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95 % confidence interval. In 2019-2022, the first-dose coverage of varicella vaccination among children following the routine vaccination programme ranged from 85 to 87 % (children born in 2016 or later). The second-dose coverage was 58 % for the children born in 2016. The coverage of the catch-up vaccinations ranged from 18 % (children born in 2006) to 82 % (children born in 2015) for the first dose and from 10 % to 64 % for the second dose in the respective birth cohorts. In 2022, compared to the pre-vaccination period (2014-2016) the annual incidence rate of varicella cases contacting public primary health care declined in all age groups. The reduction ranged from 92 % to 98 % among the children eligible for the vaccinations (born 2006 or later). The 87 % reduction in the incidence rate among the unvaccinated children < 1 year suggests the indirect effect of the vaccinations. Introducing varicella vaccinations with catch-up was associated with rapid reduction in the varicella cases contacting primary health care in all ages. However, the coverage of the routine programme needs to be improved further as presently susceptibles accumulate and enable thus further outbreaks in coming decades.

Vaccines for measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella in children

BACKGROUND

Measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella (chickenpox) are serious diseases that can lead to serious complications, disability, and death. However, public debate over the safety of the trivalent MMR vaccine and the resultant drop in vaccination coverage in several countries persists, despite its almost universal use and accepted effectiveness. This is an update of a review published in 2005 and updated in 2012.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness, safety, and long- and short-term adverse effects associated with the trivalent vaccine, containing measles, rubella, mumps strains (MMR), or concurrent administration of MMR vaccine and varicella vaccine (MMR+V), or tetravalent vaccine containing measles, rubella, mumps, and varicella strains (MMRV), given to children aged up to 15 years.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (the Cochrane Library 2019, Issue 5), which includes the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections Group's Specialised Register, MEDLINE (1966 to 2 May 2019), Embase (1974 to 2 May 2019), the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (2 May 2019), and ClinicalTrials.gov (2 May 2019).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), controlled clinical trials (CCTs), prospective and retrospective cohort studies (PCS/RCS), case-control studies (CCS), interrupted time-series (ITS) studies, case cross-over (CCO) studies, case-only ecological method (COEM) studies, self-controlled case series (SCCS) studies, person-time cohort (PTC) studies, and case-coverage design/screening methods (CCD/SM) studies, assessing any combined MMR or MMRV / MMR+V vaccine given in any dose, preparation or time schedule compared with no intervention or placebo, on healthy children up to 15 years of age.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed the methodological quality of the included studies. We grouped studies for quantitative analysis according to study design, vaccine type (MMR, MMRV, MMR+V), virus strain, and study settings. Outcomes of interest were cases of measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella, and harms. Certainty of evidence of was rated using GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 138 studies (23,480,668 participants). Fifty-one studies (10,248,159 children) assessed vaccine effectiveness and 87 studies (13,232,509 children) assessed the association between vaccines and a variety of harms. We included 74 new studies to this 2019 version of the review. Effectiveness Vaccine effectiveness in preventing measles was 95% after one dose (relative risk (RR) 0.05, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.13; 7 cohort studies; 12,039 children; moderate certainty evidence) and 96% after two doses (RR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.28; 5 cohort studies; 21,604 children; moderate certainty evidence). The effectiveness in preventing cases among household contacts or preventing transmission to others the children were in contact with after one dose was 81% (RR 0.19, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.89; 3 cohort studies; 151 children; low certainty evidence), after two doses 85% (RR 0.15, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.75; 3 cohort studies; 378 children; low certainty evidence), and after three doses was 96% (RR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.23; 2 cohort studies; 151 children; low certainty evidence). The effectiveness (at least one dose) in preventing measles after exposure (post-exposure prophylaxis) was 74% (RR 0.26, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.50; 2 cohort studies; 283 children; low certainty evidence). The effectiveness of Jeryl Lynn containing MMR vaccine in preventing mumps was 72% after one dose (RR 0.24, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.76; 6 cohort studies; 9915 children; moderate certainty evidence), 86% after two doses (RR 0.12, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.35; 5 cohort studies; 7792 children; moderate certainty evidence). Effectiveness in preventing cases among household contacts was 74% (RR 0.26, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.49; 3 cohort studies; 1036 children; moderate certainty evidence).  Vaccine effectiveness against rubella, using a vaccine with the BRD2 strain which is only used in China, is 89% (RR 0.11, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.42; 1 cohort study; 1621 children; moderate certainty evidence).  Vaccine effectiveness against varicella (any severity) after two doses in children aged 11 to 22 months is 95% in a 10 years follow-up (rate ratio (rr) 0.05, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.08; 1 RCT; 2279 children; high certainty evidence). Safety There is evidence supporting an association between aseptic meningitis and MMR vaccines containing Urabe and Leningrad-Zagreb mumps strains, but no evidence supporting this association for MMR vaccines containing Jeryl Lynn mumps strains (rr 1.30, 95% CI 0.66 to 2.56; low certainty evidence). The analyses provide evidence supporting an association between MMR/MMR+V/MMRV vaccines (Jeryl Lynn strain) and febrile seizures. Febrile seizures normally occur in 2% to 4% of healthy children at least once before the age of 5. The attributable risk febrile seizures vaccine-induced is estimated to be from 1 per 1700 to 1 per 1150 administered doses. The analyses provide evidence supporting an association between MMR vaccination and idiopathic thrombocytopaenic purpura (ITP). However, the risk of ITP after vaccination is smaller than after natural infection with these viruses. Natural infection of ITP occur in 5 cases per 100,000 (1 case per 20,000) per year. The attributable risk is estimated about 1 case of ITP per 40,000 administered MMR doses. There is no evidence of an association between MMR immunisation and encephalitis or encephalopathy (rate ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.61; 2 observational studies; 1,071,088 children; low certainty evidence), and autistic spectrum disorders (rate ratio 0.93, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.01; 2 observational studies; 1,194,764 children; moderate certainty). There is insufficient evidence to determine the association between MMR immunisation and inflammatory bowel disease (odds ratio 1.42, 95% CI 0.93 to 2.16; 3 observational studies; 409 cases and 1416 controls; moderate certainty evidence). Additionally, there is no evidence supporting an association between MMR immunisation and cognitive delay, type 1 diabetes, asthma, dermatitis/eczema, hay fever, leukaemia, multiple sclerosis, gait disturbance, and bacterial or viral infections.  AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Existing evidence on the safety and effectiveness of MMR/MMRV vaccines support their use for mass immunisation. Campaigns aimed at global eradication should assess epidemiological and socioeconomic situations of the countries as well as the capacity to achieve high vaccination coverage. More evidence is needed to assess whether the protective effect of MMR/MMRV could wane with time since immunisation.

Effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose varicella vaccine in children in Qingdao, China: a matched case-control study

To evaluate whether two-dose of varicella vaccine would provide a better protection to children from varicella than one-dose, we conducted a 1:3 matched case-control study in children in Qingdao, China. A total of 509 varicella cases aged 6-11 y were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). And 1,527 controls, who did not suffer from varicella, were selected and matched with cases by age and class. The varicella vaccine effectiveness (VE) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated. The vaccination coverage rate of one-dose varicella vaccine in the cases was 52.9%, while for the controls was 59.1%. And the two-dose vaccination rate in the cases and controls were 4.3% and 14.5%, respectively. A statistically significant difference was found in the immunization history between the cases and controls (P < .001).The overall varicella VE was 56.1% (95% CI: 45.0%-64.9%), and the VE of two-dose vaccination (81.6%, 95% CI: 70.5%-88.4%) was substantially higher than that of one-dose vaccination (44.7%, 95% CI: 31.6%-55.4%). For less than 2 y, 2-4 y, 4-6 y, and more than 6 y after only one-dose vaccination, the varicella VE were 96.6% (95% CI: 75.0%-99.5%), 81.2% (95% CI: 55.6%-92.0%), 60.8% (95% CI: 46.8%-70.2%), and 18.0% (95% CI: 4.3%-35.6%), respectively. The varicella VE gradually decreased over time (P for trend < 0.001). It is recommended that the coverage of varicella vaccine should be increased and two-dose of varicella vaccine should be included in the National Immunization Program of China.

Varicella Admissions in Children and Adolescents in Portugal: 2000-2015

OBJECTIVES

Varicella is a common, usually benign, and autolimited disease in children but can lead to severe complications and hospitalization. With this study, we aim to analyze all varicella hospitalizations to provide epidemiological information to help outline preventive policies.

METHODS

We assessed all varicella hospitalizations in children aged 0 to 17 years, from 2000 to 2015, in mainland, public Portuguese hospitals using a Portuguese administrative database. Seasonality, geographic distribution, severity, complications, risk factors, use of diagnostic and treatment procedures and hospitalization costs were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 5120 hospitalizations were registered, with an annual rate of 17.3 hospitalizations per 100 000 inhabitants. A higher number of hospitalizations occurred during the summer period and in Southern regions. The median length of stay was of 4 days (interquartile range: 3.0-7.0). We found a high rate of severe complications, mostly dermatologic (19.6%), neurologic (6.0%), and respiratory (5.1%). Of the total number of patients, 0.8% were immunocompromised and 0.1% were pregnant. Total direct hospitalization costs during the 16-year period were estimated to be 7 110 719€ (8 603 970 USD), with a mean annual cost of 444 419.92€ (537 748.10 USD).

CONCULSIONS

This is the first national study in which useful epidemiological data to evaluate the burden and impact of varicella in Portugal is provided.

Oxidative and/or Inflammatory Thrust Induced by Silver Nanoparticles in Rabbits: Effect of Vitamin E or NSAID Administration on Semen Parameters

The aim of this research was to evaluate the inflammatory and/or oxidative damage related to silver nanoparticles (AgNPs), which are responsible for negative effects on sperm physiology and metabolism. Thirty New Zealand White rabbit bucks were divided into 5 experimental groups (6 animals/group): Control, treated with 0.9% NaCl; AgNP, treated with a 5 mM AgNP solution; LPS, treated with 50 g/kg b.w. E. coli LPS; AgNPs + NSAID, treated with an anti-inflammatory drug at 0.2 mg/kg b.w. and 5 mM AgNPs; and AgNPs + Vit E, treated with 0.18 mg/kg b.w. vitamin E and 5 mM AgNPs. Sperm quality and oxidative and inflammatory status were assessed at different times (0-60 days). Two statistical models were built: the first evaluated the effects of AgNPs and LPS (vs. Control), whereas the second evaluated the protective effect of an NSAID and vitamin E against AgNP-induced damage. Three principal component analyses were performed: sperm traits (motility, volume), oxidative status (antioxidants, oxidative metabolites, and redox reactions), and cytokines (TNF-α, IL-8, and IL-6). A negative effect on reproductive traits resulted after NP administration. In particular, an inflammatory/oxidative response took place in the reproductive tract during the first 2-3 wks of AgNP administration (cytokine and oxidative metabolite generation); the inflammatory/oxidative thrust impaired the status of rabbit tissues (seminal plasma, sperm, and blood), inducing a response (increased antioxidant enzymes and redox reactions) at 4-7 wks; oxidative stress, if not totally counteracted, likely induced toxicity in the late phases of AgNP administration (8-9 wks). In conclusion, exposure to silver nanoparticles produced a similar but more persistent effect than that of LPS on rabbit reproductive tissues: AgNP administration triggered a proinflammatory response linked to oxidative thrust, worsening many sperm parameters. However, only anti-inflammatory treatment counteracted the negative effects of AgNPs, whereas vitamin E seemed to act as an adjuvant, attenuating the oxidative cascade.

Evaluation of Varicella Immunity during Pregnancy in Apulia Region, Southern Italy

Varicella is a highly contagious, infectious disease caused by the varicella-zoster virus. Those at higher risk of severe complications are immunocompromised individuals, adults, non-immune pregnant women, and newborns. According to the gestational time, when varicella-zoster virus infection is acquired during pregnancy, serious complications can potentially occur for both the woman and the fetus. The present study was conducted to assess the profile of varicella susceptibility in pregnant women in Apulia, a large region in Southern Italy, from 2016 to 2019. The data showed that pregnant women between the age of 15-24 and 40-49 years, the youngest and the oldest, respectively, are the most protected against varicella-zoster virus infection, exceeding the prevalence rate of 90%. Conversely, pregnant women between the age of 25 and 34 years seem to be the most vulnerable and the most at risk for acquiring varicella-zoster virus infection during pregnancy. Analysis of the immunity status against varicella should be introduced as a screening test before pregnancy, together with a strategic vaccination campaign targeting non-immune women of childbearing age, in order to reduce the risk of congenital and perinatal varicella.

Varicella seroepidemiology and immunization in a cohort of future healthcare workers in the pre-vaccination era

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study was to establish the seroprevalence of positive antibodies against varicella and compliance with varicella vaccination in the pre-vaccination era.

METHODS

A cohort of 10 683 Italian students from Padua University Medical School (from 2004 to 2019) were enrolled and classified as unvaccinated, vaccinated once, or vaccinated twice against varicella, according to their vaccination certificate. The antibody titre was measured and the seroprevalence of positive subjects was determined. Subjects with negative or equivocal antibodies were invited for vaccination, and then the antibody titre was retested.

RESULTS

Unvaccinated students were mostly seropositive (95.6%), compared with vaccinated students who were less seropositive (68.0% after one dose and 78.6% after two doses) and had significantly lower antibody titres (p < 0.0001). The post-test vaccination had a positive response rate of 85.4%: 67.4% after one dose and 91.4% after two doses.

CONCLUSIONS

In the pre-vaccination era, only 3.3% of future healthcare workers were vaccinated against varicella (1.1% once and 2.2% twice). Vaccination or revaccination of negative and equivocal individuals could reduce the number of susceptible people. Implementation of varicella vaccine (two doses) in healthcare workers is of primary importance to reduce the risk of transmission.

Vaccines for measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella in children

BACKGROUND

Measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella (chickenpox) are serious diseases that can lead to serious complications, disability, and death. However, public debate over the safety of the trivalent MMR vaccine and the resultant drop in vaccination coverage in several countries persists, despite its almost universal use and accepted effectiveness. This is an update of a review published in 2005 and updated in 2012.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness, safety, and long- and short-term adverse effects associated with the trivalent vaccine, containing measles, rubella, mumps strains (MMR), or concurrent administration of MMR vaccine and varicella vaccine (MMR+V), or tetravalent vaccine containing measles, rubella, mumps, and varicella strains (MMRV), given to children aged up to 15 years.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (the Cochrane Library 2019, Issue 5), which includes the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections Group's Specialised Register, MEDLINE (1966 to 2 May 2019), Embase (1974 to 2 May 2019), the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (2 May 2019), and ClinicalTrials.gov (2 May 2019).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), controlled clinical trials (CCTs), prospective and retrospective cohort studies (PCS/RCS), case-control studies (CCS), interrupted time-series (ITS) studies, case cross-over (CCO) studies, case-only ecological method (COEM) studies, self-controlled case series (SCCS) studies, person-time cohort (PTC) studies, and case-coverage design/screening methods (CCD/SM) studies, assessing any combined MMR or MMRV / MMR+V vaccine given in any dose, preparation or time schedule compared with no intervention or placebo, on healthy children up to 15 years of age.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed the methodological quality of the included studies. We grouped studies for quantitative analysis according to study design, vaccine type (MMR, MMRV, MMR+V), virus strain, and study settings. Outcomes of interest were cases of measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella, and harms. Certainty of evidence of was rated using GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 138 studies (23,480,668 participants). Fifty-one studies (10,248,159 children) assessed vaccine effectiveness and 87 studies (13,232,509 children) assessed the association between vaccines and a variety of harms. We included 74 new studies to this 2019 version of the review. Effectiveness Vaccine effectiveness in preventing measles was 95% after one dose (relative risk (RR) 0.05, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.13; 7 cohort studies; 12,039 children; moderate certainty evidence) and 96% after two doses (RR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.28; 5 cohort studies; 21,604 children; moderate certainty evidence). The effectiveness in preventing cases among household contacts or preventing transmission to others the children were in contact with after one dose was 81% (RR 0.19, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.89; 3 cohort studies; 151 children; low certainty evidence), after two doses 85% (RR 0.15, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.75; 3 cohort studies; 378 children; low certainty evidence), and after three doses was 96% (RR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.23; 2 cohort studies; 151 children; low certainty evidence). The effectiveness (at least one dose) in preventing measles after exposure (post-exposure prophylaxis) was 74% (RR 0.26, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.50; 2 cohort studies; 283 children; low certainty evidence). The effectiveness of Jeryl Lynn containing MMR vaccine in preventing mumps was 72% after one dose (RR 0.24, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.76; 6 cohort studies; 9915 children; moderate certainty evidence), 86% after two doses (RR 0.12, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.35; 5 cohort studies; 7792 children; moderate certainty evidence). Effectiveness in preventing cases among household contacts was 74% (RR 0.26, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.49; 3 cohort studies; 1036 children; moderate certainty evidence). Vaccine effectiveness against rubella is 89% (RR 0.11, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.42; 1 cohort study; 1621 children; moderate certainty evidence). Vaccine effectiveness against varicella (any severity) after two doses in children aged 11 to 22 months is 95% in a 10 years follow-up (rate ratio (rr) 0.05, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.08; 1 RCT; 2279 children; high certainty evidence). Safety There is evidence supporting an association between aseptic meningitis and MMR vaccines containing Urabe and Leningrad-Zagreb mumps strains, but no evidence supporting this association for MMR vaccines containing Jeryl Lynn mumps strains (rr 1.30, 95% CI 0.66 to 2.56; low certainty evidence). The analyses provide evidence supporting an association between MMR/MMR+V/MMRV vaccines (Jeryl Lynn strain) and febrile seizures. Febrile seizures normally occur in 2% to 4% of healthy children at least once before the age of 5. The attributable risk febrile seizures vaccine-induced is estimated to be from 1 per 1700 to 1 per 1150 administered doses. The analyses provide evidence supporting an association between MMR vaccination and idiopathic thrombocytopaenic purpura (ITP). However, the risk of ITP after vaccination is smaller than after natural infection with these viruses. Natural infection of ITP occur in 5 cases per 100,000 (1 case per 20,000) per year. The attributable risk is estimated about 1 case of ITP per 40,000 administered MMR doses. There is no evidence of an association between MMR immunisation and encephalitis or encephalopathy (rate ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.61; 2 observational studies; 1,071,088 children; low certainty evidence), and autistic spectrum disorders (rate ratio 0.93, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.01; 2 observational studies; 1,194,764 children; moderate certainty). There is insufficient evidence to determine the association between MMR immunisation and inflammatory bowel disease (odds ratio 1.42, 95% CI 0.93 to 2.16; 3 observational studies; 409 cases and 1416 controls; moderate certainty evidence). Additionally, there is no evidence supporting an association between MMR immunisation and cognitive delay, type 1 diabetes, asthma, dermatitis/eczema, hay fever, leukaemia, multiple sclerosis, gait disturbance, and bacterial or viral infections.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Existing evidence on the safety and effectiveness of MMR/MMRV vaccines support their use for mass immunisation. Campaigns aimed at global eradication should assess epidemiological and socioeconomic situations of the countries as well as the capacity to achieve high vaccination coverage. More evidence is needed to assess whether the protective effect of MMR/MMRV could wane with time since immunisation.

Evaluation of impact of one dose varicella vaccine on the incidence of chickenpox in Argentina

INTRODUCTION

Varicella, also known as chickenpox is one of the most common immunizable diseases. In 1998, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended to incorporate this vaccine in the national immunization programs, which Argentina did in 2015.

OBJECTIVES

To describe the behavior of the varicella time series for the 2005-2017 period, and to evaluate the impact of the vaccine in Argentina.

METHODOLOGY

An ecological observational study was performed, using the varicella cases reported in the National Health Monitoring System, and the data of the National census as secondary data sources. A model based time series analysis of the notified varicella cases in Argentina was performed, using a Negative Binomial Mixed Model. For the verification of the vaccine impact, the 2005-2014 period was selected, and a prognosis for the following years was performed. Impact was evaluated by comparing the rates and confidence intervals between the predicted and observed values.

RESULTS

Argentina reported 1,775,587 varicella cases for the 2005-2017 period. The series exhibited seasonality, and, a decreasing trend in the number of cases was observed in 2016 and 2017. A reduction of the incidence rate after the implementation of the vaccine was observed. The transmission risk decreased in the country after vaccine implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first concrete evidence of the varicella incidence decline after the implementation of a single dose application program in Argentina.

Implementing Universal Varicella Vaccination in Europe: The Path Forward

Varicella is a common vaccine-preventable disease that usually presents as a mild disorder but can lead to severe complications. Before the implementation of universal varicella vaccination (UVV) in some European countries, the burden of varicella disease was broadly similar across the region. Despite this, countries adopted heterogeneous varicella vaccination strategies. UVV is currently recommended in 12 European countries. Known barriers to UVV implementation in Europe include (1) a perceived low disease burden and low public health priority; (2) cost-effectiveness and funding availability; (3) concerns related to a shift in varicella disease and incidence of herpes zoster and (4) safety concerns related to measles, mumps, rubella and varicella-associated febrile seizures after the first dose. Countries that implemented UVV experienced decreases in varicella incidence, hospitalizations and complications, showing overall beneficial impact. Alternative strategies targeting susceptible individuals at higher risk of complications have been less effective. This article discusses ways to overcome the barriers to move varicella forward as a truly vaccine preventable disease.

Incidence rate of breakthrough varicella observed in healthy children after 1 or 2 doses of varicella vaccine: Results from a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Although extensive varicella vaccination coverage has been reported in many countries, breakthrough varicella (BV) still occurs in healthy children. We performed a meta-analysis to understand whether 2 varicella vaccine doses are needed in children and, if so, to determine the best time to vaccinate.

METHODS

The BV incidence rates after 1 or 2 doses of varicella vaccine were pooled using random effects, and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to estimate the risk factors after vaccination.

RESULTS

A total of 27 original articles were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled average BV incidence rate in children vaccinated with 1 dose was 8.5 cases per 1,000 person years (PY) (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.3-13.7; random effects model) and 2.2 cases per 1,000 PY (95% CI, 0.5-9.3; random effects model) in children vaccinated with 2 doses. The pooled trend of the annual BV incidence rate from the first to eighth year fluctuated, with a peak annual incidence rate of 35.3 cases per 1,000 population in the fourth year. The meta-regression showed that design type, type of vaccine, and their interaction accounted for approximately 71.74% of the heterogeneity in the average BV incidence rate after 1 vaccine dose.

CONCLUSIONS

Two doses of varicella vaccine are more effective than a single dose, and 3-4 years between the first and second vaccinations may achieve higher efficacy.

Preparing to introduce the varicella vaccine into the Italian immunisation programme: varicella-related hospitalisations in Tuscany, 2004-2012

A universal immunisation programme against varicella in the form of the measles-mumps-rubella-varicella (MMRV) vaccine for toddlers aged 13-15 months was introduced in Tuscany in July 2008. An assessment of the impact of this programme on varicella-related hospitalisations 4 years after its introduction could further support its adoption at a national level. The hospitalisation data were analysed in two periods: pre-vaccination (2004-2007) and vaccination period (2009-2012). The high coverage of the vaccines (84% in 2012) resulted in a significant decline in notifications, from 33,114 (2004-2007) to 13,184 cases (2009-2012), and also of hospitalisations, from 584 (pre-vaccination period) to 325 (vaccination period). The hospitalisation rate was 4.1 per 100,000 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 3.4-4.7) before the introduction of vaccination, which dropped to 2.2 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1.7-2.7) in the vaccination period (hospitalisation risk ratios: 0.54; 95% CI:  0.472-0.619). The reduction was most significant in the youngest age groups. The introduction of universal vaccination has already led to a significant decline in hospitalisations due to varicella after just 4 years of implementation. Hospitalisation rates fell noticeably among younger individuals involved in the vaccination programme. The decrease in hospitalisation rate in the older age groups suggests a possible indirect protection.

Coverage, efficacy or dosing interval: which factor predominantly influences the impact of routine childhood vaccination for the prevention of varicella? A model-based study for Italy

BACKGROUND

Varicella is a highly infectious disease with a significant public health and economic burden, which can be prevented with childhood routine varicella vaccination. Vaccination strategies differ by country. Some factors are known to play an important role (number of doses, coverage, dosing interval, efficacy and catch-up programmes), however, their relative impact on the reduction of varicella in the population remains unclear. This paper aims to help policy makers prioritise the critical factors to achieve the most successful vaccination programme with the available budget.

METHODS

Scenarios assessed the impact of different vaccination strategies on reduction of varicella disease in the population. A dynamic transmission model was used and adapted to fit Italian demographics and population mixing patterns. Inputs included coverage, number of doses, dosing intervals, first-dose efficacy and availability of catch-up programmes, based on strategies currently used or likely to be used in different countries. The time horizon was 30 years.

RESULTS

Both one- and two-dose routine varicella vaccination strategies prevented a comparable number of varicella cases with complications, but two-doses provided broader protection due to prevention of a higher number of milder varicella cases. A catch-up programme in susceptible adolescents aged 10-14 years old reduced varicella cases by 27-43 % in older children, which are often more severe than in younger children. Coverage, for all strategies, sustained at high levels achieved the largest reduction in varicella. In general, a 20 % increase in coverage resulted in a further 27-31 % reduction in varicella cases. When high coverage is reached, the impact of dosing interval and first-dose vaccine efficacy had a relatively lower impact on disease prevention in the population. Compared to the long (11 years) dosing interval, the short (5 months) and medium (5 years) interval schedules reduced varicella cases by a further 5-13 % and 2-5 %, respectively. Similarly, a 10 % increase in first-dose efficacy (from 65 to 75 % efficacy) prevented 2-5 % more varicella cases, suggesting it is the least influential factor when considering routine varicella vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination strategies can be implemented differently in each country depending on their needs, infrastructure and healthcare budget. However, ensuring high coverage remains the critical success factor for significant prevention of varicella when introducing varicella vaccination in the national immunisation programme.

How can the results of Health Technology Assessment (HTA) evaluations applied to vaccinations be communicated to decision-makers and stakeholders? The ISPOR Rome Chapter Project

HTA is considered the most comprehensive and transparent method of supporting decision-makers in their choices in Public Health. HTA on vaccines is being performed by many experts. However, they often present their studies to colleagues, but not to decisionmakers, who should be the main target and current users. It is therefore crucial to improve the transfer of scientific data to decision- makers and all stakeholders. The aims of the present project are: 1) to set up a team of experts to collect economic evaluations and HTA studies on vaccines and assess their actual use in decision-making processes; 2) to constitute regional working groups in order to identify the critical aspects of the communication process and identify the most appropriate method of data transfer. Systematic reviews of economic evaluations and HTA on vaccines and their actual use in decision-making will be used to draw up the basic documents for discussion by the 3 regional working boards. The working groups will discuss the current scientific evidence and communication methods and will try to implement a model of technology assessment with well-defined and objective criteria, in order to better fit pharmaco-economic and HTA methods to the field of vaccinations. Improving the transfer of HTA results to stakeholders, particularly decision-makers, will enable decisions to be taken on the basis of scientific evidence, and appropriate, sustainable actions to be undertaken.

Dissecting the indirect effects caused by vaccines into the basic elements

Vaccination directly protects vaccinated individuals, but it also has the potential for indirectly protecting the unvaccinated in a population (herd protection). Unintended negative consequences such as the re-manifestation of infection, mainly expressed as age shifts, result from vaccination programs as well. We discuss the necessary conditions for achieving optimal herd protection (i.e., high quality vaccine-induced immunity, substantial effect on the force of infection, and appropriate vaccine coverage and distribution), as well as the conditions under which age shifts are likely to occur. We show examples to illustrate these effects. Substantial ambiguity in observing and quantifying these indirect vaccine effects makes accurate evaluation troublesome even though the nature of these outcomes may be critical for accurate assessment of the economic value when decision makers are evaluating a novel vaccine for introduction into a particular region or population group. More investigation is needed to identify and develop successful assessment methodologies for precisely analyzing these outcomes.

Varicella in Europe-A review of the epidemiology and experience with vaccination

There is no consensus as regards the European varicella immunisation policy; some countries have introduced varicella vaccination in their routine childhood immunisation programs whereas others have decided against or are debating. With the aim of providing an overview of the epidemiology of varicella in Europe and addressing the different strategies and the experiences so far, we performed a review of epidemiological studies done in Europe from 2004 to 2014. Varicella is mainly a disease of childhood, but sero-epidemiological studies show regional differences in the proportion of susceptible adults. Hospitalisation due to varicella is not common, but complications and hospitalisation mainly affect previously healthy children, which underlines the importance of not dismissing varicella as a disease of little importance. The experience with universal vaccination in Europe shows that vaccination leads to a rapid reduction of disease incidence. Vaccine effectiveness is high and a protective herd effect is obtained. Experience with vaccination in Europe has not been long enough, though, to draw conclusions on benefits and drawbacks with vaccination as well as the capacity for national programs in Europe to maintain a sufficiently high coverage to prevent a change in age group distribution to older children and young adults or on the impact that varicella immunisation may have on the epidemiology of shingles.