Predictors of Mortality in a Clinic Cohort of HIV-1 Infected Children Initiated on Antiretroviral Therapy in Jos, Nigeria

Survival and predictors of mortality among HIV-positive children on antiretroviral therapy in public hospitals

Background

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome had created enormous challenges worldwide, and continues to be the world’s serious health and development challenges. Globally, at the end 2017, there were 1.8 million children (< 15 years) living with HIV. The survival of HIV-positive children treated with ART depends on a variety of factors, which might vary greatly with economic, socio-demographic, behavioral risk, and health factors. This study aimed to assess survival status and predictors of mortality among HIV-positive children on antiretroviral therapy at East Gojjam Zone Public hospitals, Northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted in selected hospitals of the East Gojjam zone, Northwest Ethiopia, among < 15-year-old children who were newly enrolled in HIV care clinic from January 1st, 2014 to December 31, 2018. Data were collected from patient charts from March 1 to 22, 2019 using a standardized checklist. Data were analyzed by SPSS version 24. A Kaplan–Meier curve and log-rank test were used to estimate the survival time and compare survival curves between variables. Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards model was fitted to identify predictors of survival status taking p-value < 0.05 as statistically significant.

Result

In this study, a total of 251 HIV-positive children on ART were followed up for a total of 60 months, with a mean survival time of 55.54 (± 0.83) (95% CI: 53.90–57.17) months. The overall mortality incidence rate in the cohort during the 626 Child-Year-Observation (CYO) was 2.56/100 CYO. The overall estimated survival probability after starting ART was 0.90 at 60 months of follow-up. In this study age < 5 years, Hgb < 10 gm/dl, CD4 count below threshold, cotrimoxazole preventive therapy, and subnormal weight for height were statistically significant predictors of survival status (P < 0.05).

Conclusion and recommendation

Age, hemoglobin level, CD4 count, weight for height, and not taking cotrimoxazole preventive therapy were independent predictors of mortality. Therefore, concerned stakeholders should focus on the above-mentioned predictors of mortality and nutritional interventions to enhance the survival of HIV-infected children on antiretroviral therapy.

Long-Term Outcomes and Risk Factors for Mortality in a Cohort of HIV-Infected Children Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in Vietnam

Background

Management of HIV-infected children on a long-term basis is a challenge in resource-limited countries. The aim of this study is to evaluate the long-term outcome and identify the risk factors for mortality in a cohort of children with antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Vietnam.

Patients and Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in children aged 0-15 years, seen at the outpatient clinic of the Women and Children Hospital of An Giang, Vietnam, from August 2006 to May 2019. Cox proportional-hazard models were used to determine factors associated with mortality.

Results

A total of 266 HIV-infected children were on ART. During 1545 child-years of follow-up (median follow-up was 5.8 years), 28 (10.5%) children died yielding a mortality rate of 1.8 death per 100 child-years. By multivariate analysis, World Health Organization clinical stage 3 or 4 (AHR; 7.86, 95% CI; 1.02-60.3, P= 0.047), tuberculosis (TB) co-infection (AHR; 6.26, 95% CI; 2.50-15.64, P= 0.001) and having severe immunosuppression before ART (AHR; 11.73, 95% CI; 1.52-90.4, P= 0.018) were independent factors for mortality in these children.

Conclusion

Antiretroviral therapy has reduced mortality in HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings. Independent risk factors for mortality were advanced clinical stage (3 or 4), TB co-infection and severe immunosuppression. Early investigation and treatment of TB co-infection allow early ART initiation which may improve outcomes in our settings.

[Determinants of survival of HIV-infected children aged 6 months to 15 years on follow-up in the town of Ebolowa, Cameroon from 2008 to 2018]

Introduction

la survie des enfants infectés par le VIH demeure un défi dans les pays en voie de développement. Au Cameroun, la mortalité liée au VIH chez les enfants de moins de 15 ans en 2018 était de 20%. Paradoxalement, la région du Sud Cameroun, malgré une séroprévalence élevée chez les enfants de 4,1% et une couverture en traitement antirétroviral faible de l´ordre de 64%, ne fait pas partie des régions du Cameroun les plus touchées par la mortalité pédiatrique liée au VIH/SIDA. L´objectif de ce travail était de déterminer le taux de survie et identifier ses déterminants chez les enfants âgés de 6 mois à 15 ans, infectés par le VIH.

Méthodes

une étude de cohorte à collecte de données rétrospective et prospective a été menée de janvier 2008 à décembre 2018 dans trois formations sanitaires prenant en charge les enfants VIH positifs, à Ebolowa dans la région du Sud Cameroun. L´étude s´est faite en deux temps, une phase de collecte rétrospective pour la sélection des dossiers médicaux des enfants VIH positifs répondant aux critères d´inclusion dans les registres de consultation, et une phase de collecte prospective qui nous a permis d´avoir auprès des parents, les informations sur le devenir des enfants. Un consentement éclairé parental a été obtenu au cours de cette deuxième phase. Les données sociodémographiques, cliniques, paracliniques, thérapeutiques, ainsi que le devenir des enfants ont été collectées. Les temps moyens de survie, ainsi que les facteurs associés à la survie ont été déterminés à l´aide du modèle de Kaplan Meier. La régression à risque proportionnel de Cox, nous a permis d´identifier les déterminants de la survie. Notre critère de jugement était le décès. Le niveau de significativité a été fixé à 5%.

Résultats

au total, 186 enfants ont été enrôlés. La durée médiane de suivi était de 18,5 mois. Le taux de survie était de 66,7%. La majorité des décès (67%) est survenue avant le sixième mois de suivi. Après analyse multivariée, l´âge inférieur à 2 ans [aHR: 18,6 (6,48-53,59); p=0,001], l´anémie sévère [aHR: 7,69 (1,02-57,9); p=0,04], et la présence d´infections opportunistes [aHR: 4,52 (2,51-8,14); p=0,05] étaient indépendamment et significativement associés à la survie.

Conclusion

en plus du traitement antirétroviral précoce, un bon suivi clinique et paraclinique est nécessaire pour améliorer la survie des enfants infectés par le VIH.

Survival of Children Living With HIV on Art in Zambia: A 13-Years Retrospective Cohort Analysis

Background: Research conducted before the introduction of anti-retroviral therapy (ART), showed that the majority of children living with HIV (CLHIV) would die before their second birthday. In Zambia, ART was rolled out to the public health system in 2004 with subsequent improved survival in CLHIV. However, the survival rates of CLHIV on ART in Zambia since 2004 have not been extensively documented. We assessed survival experiences and the factors associated with survival in CLHIV on ART in Zambia.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of CLHIV (aged up to 15 years) using routinely collected data from health facilities across Zambia, over 13 years to ascertain mortality rates. We explored survival factors using Cox regression giving adjusted hazard ratios (AHR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Nelson Aalen estimates were used to show the cumulative hazards of mortality for different levels of explanatory factors.

Results: A total of 65,448 eligible children, were initiated on ART between 2005 and 2018, of which 33,483 (51%) where female. They contributed a total survival time of 275,715-person years at risk during which 3,265 children died which translated into an incidence rate of 1.1 deaths per 100 person-years during the review period. Mortality rates were highest in children in the first year of life (Mortality rate 2.24; 95% CI = 2.08–2.42) and during the first year on ART (Mortality rate 3.82 95% CI = 3.67–3.98). Over 50% of the children had been on ART for 5–10 years by 2018, and they had the lowest risk of mortality compared to children who had been on ART for <5 years.

Conclusions: Children with HIV in Zambia are surviving much longer than was predicted before ART was introduced 14 years ago. This key finding adds to the literature on analysis of survival in CLHIV in low income settings like Zambia. However, this survival is dependent on the age at which ART is initiated and the time on ART highlighting the need to increase investments in early infant diagnosis (EID) to ensure timely HIV testing and ART initiation for CLHIV.

Mortality among pediatric patients on HIV treatment in sub-Saharan African countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Despite substantial improvements in accessibility of Anti-Retroviral Treatment (ART), death of children on ART remains a prevailing challenge in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. However, the pooled magnitude of mortality at different ART follow-up periods remains unknown for the region. We estimated the pooled proportion of all-cause mortality for pediatric patients receiving first-line ART at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months follow-up period in SSA.

Methods

We searched for relevant articles published between January 2014 and June 2018 on PubMed, Hinari and Google scholar databases. We searched for additional articles from reference lists and 2014–2018 abstracts archived by the Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections (CROI) and the International AIDS Society Conference on HIV Science (IAS).

Results

We reviewed 29 articles reporting mortality among pediatric ART patients at different follow-up periods in countries from 2001 to 2016. Among the 51,619 pediatric ART patients in these cohorts, studies reported 4061 (7.9%) all-cause cumulative death. The cumulative pooled proportion of mortality at 3, 6, 12 and 24 months of ART were 3% (95% CI: 3.0–4.0), 5% (95% CI: 4.0–6.0), 6% (95% CI: 5.0–7.0) and 7% (95% CI: 6.0–8.0), respectively.

Conclusions

In SSA, significant proportion of mortality among children occurs in the first 3–6 months of ART initiation. Western Africa has a little higher estimate of mortality among pediatric ART patients at 6 and 12 months of follow-up. Strategies to prevent early mortality including thorough screening and management of opportunistic infections before ART initiation are needed.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-6482-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Mortality in a Cohort of HIV-Infected Children: A 12-Month Outcome of Antiretroviral Therapy in Makurdi, Nigeria

INTRODUCTION

Recognizing the predictors of mortality among HIV-infected children will allow for concerted management that can reduce HIV-mortality in Nigeria.

METHODOLOGY

A retrospective cohort study in children aged 0-15 years, between October 2010 and December 2013, at the Federal Medical Centre, Makurdi, Nigeria. Kaplan-Meier method analysed the cumulative probability of early mortality (EM) occurring at or before 6 months and after 6 months of follow-up (late mortality-LM) on a 12-month antiretroviral therapy (ART). Multivariate Cox proportional regression models were used to test for hazard ratios (HR).

RESULTS

368 children were included in the analysis contributing 81 children per 100 child-years to the 12-month ART follow-up. A significant reduction in EM rates was noted at 17.3 deaths per 100 child-years (30 deaths) to LM rates of 3.0 deaths per 100 child-years (10 deaths), p < 0.01. At multivariate analysis, children with a high pretreatment viral load (≥10,000 copies/ml) were found to be at risk of EM (aHR; 18. 089, 95% CI; 2.428-134.77, p=0.005). Having severe immunosuppression at/or before 6 months of ART was the predictor of LM (aHR; 17.28, 95% CI; 3.844-77.700, p ≤ 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Although a lower mortality rate is seen at 12 months of ART in our setting, predictors of HIV mortality are having high pretreatment HIV viral load and severe immunosuppression. While primary prevention of HIV infection is paramount, early identification of these predictors among our HIV-infected children for an early ART initiation can reduce further the mortality in our setting. In addition, measures to ensure a good standard of care and retention in care for a sustained virologic suppression cannot be ignored and are hereby underscored.

Predictors of Mortality and Mortality Rate in a Cohort of Children Living with HIV from India

OBJECTIVES

To study the predictors of mortality and mortality rate in a clinical cohort of Children Living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus infection (CLHIV) from India.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort analysis of CLHIV aged between 2 mo and 18 y registered during January 2004 through December 2014 at Pediatric Centre of Excellence (PCOE), Indira Gandhi Institute of Child Health (IGICH), was conducted using standard data collection sheet. Demographic and clinical characteristics of all eligible children were analyzed. The primary outcome measured was mortality. The authors also analyzed the cause of death and baseline parameters associated with death to study the predictors of mortality.

RESULTS

Out of 1289 CLHIV registered in the PCOE during the study period, 834 (64.7 %) CLHIV, with or without antiretroviral therapy (ART) care, were included. The total time contributed by the study participants was 2872.8 child-years. The mortality rate in these children was 4.9/100 child-years. A significantly higher mortality rate of 28.2 % was found in children < 5 y, 38.6 % in children with advanced WHO clinical staging, 35.2 % among severely immunosuppressed children and 22.3 % in severely malnourished children. Tuberculosis accounted for 28 % of deaths. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed treatment status, age <5 y, baseline WHO clinical stage 3 and 4, severe immune suppression and severe malnutrition were strongly associated with mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The mortality rate in the index study cohort was 4.9/100 child-years and tuberculosis was the major cause of death. Younger age, baseline advanced clinical and immunological staging were predictors of mortality. Even though mortality was significantly higher in Pre-ART children, treatment status was not found to be an independent predictor of mortality.