The risk factors of early recurrence after hepatectomy in hepatocellular carcinoma

A Dynamic Online Nomogram Based on Gd-EOB-DTPA-Enhanced MRI and Inflammatory Biomarkers for Preoperative Prediction of Pathological Grade and Stratification in Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an inflammatory cancer. We aimed to explore whether preoperative inflammation biomarkers compared to the gadoxetic acid disodium (Gd-EOB-DTPA) enhanced MRI can add complementary value for predicting HCC pathological grade, and to develop a dynamic nomogram to predict solitary HCC pathological grade.

METHODS

331 patients from the Institution A were divided chronologically into the training cohort (n = 231) and internal validation cohort (n = 100), and recurrence-free survival (RFS) was determined to follow up after surgery. 79 patients from the Institution B served as the external validation cohort. Overall, 410 patients were analyzed as the complete dataset cohort. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate Logistic regression were used to gradually filter features for model construction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate model's performance.

RESULTS

Five models of the inflammation, imaging, inflammation+AFP, inflammation+imaging and nomogram were developed. Adding inflammation to imaging model can improve the AUC in training cohort (from 0.802 to 0.869), internal validation cohort (0.827 to 0.870), external validation cohort (0.740 to 0.802) and complete dataset cohort (0.739 to 0.788), and obtain more net benefit. The nomogram had excellent performance for predicting high-grade HCC in four cohorts (AUCs: 0.882 vs. 0.869 vs. 0.829 vs. 0.806) with a good calibration, and accessed at https://predict-solitaryhccgrade.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/. Additionally, the nomogram obtained an AUC of 0.863 (95% CI 0.797-0.913) for predicting high-grade HCC in the HCC≤ 3 cm. Kaplan-Meier survival curves demonstrated that the nomogram owned excellent stratification for HCC grade (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

This easy-to-use dynamic online nomogram hold promise for use as a noninvasive tool in prediction HCC grade with high accuracy and robustness.

Deep learning nomogram based on Gd-EOB-DTPA MRI for predicting early recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy

OBJECTIVES

The accurate prediction of post-hepatectomy early recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is crucial for decision-making regarding postoperative adjuvant treatment and monitoring. We aimed to explore the feasibility of deep learning (DL) features derived from gadoxetate disodium (Gd-EOB-DTPA) MRI, qualitative features, and clinical variables for predicting early recurrence.

METHODS

In this bicentric study, 285 patients with HCC who underwent Gd-EOB-DTPA MRI before resection were divided into training (n = 195) and validation (n = 90) sets. DL features were extracted from contrast-enhanced MRI images using VGGNet-19. Three feature selection methods and five classification methods were combined for DL signature construction. Subsequently, an mp-MR DL signature fused with multiphase DL signatures of contrast-enhanced images was constructed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify early recurrence risk factors including mp-MR DL signature, microvascular invasion (MVI), and tumor number. A DL nomogram was built by incorporating deep features and significant clinical variables to achieve early recurrence prediction.

RESULTS

MVI (p = 0.039), tumor number (p = 0.001), and mp-MR DL signature (p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for early recurrence. The DL nomogram outperformed the clinical nomogram in the training set (AUC: 0.949 vs. 0.751; p < 0.001) and validation set (AUC: 0.909 vs. 0.715; p = 0.002). Excellent DL nomogram calibration was achieved in both training and validation sets. Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical usefulness of DL nomogram.

CONCLUSION

The proposed DL nomogram was superior to the clinical nomogram in predicting early recurrence for HCC patients after hepatectomy.

KEY POINTS

• Deep learning signature based on Gd-EOB-DTPA MRI was the predominant independent predictor of early recurrence for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatectomy. • Deep learning nomogram based on clinical factors and Gd-EOB-DTPA MRI features is promising for predicting early recurrence of HCC. • Deep learning nomogram outperformed the conventional clinical nomogram in predicting early recurrence.

Preoperative prediction of pathologic grade of HCC on gadobenate dimeglumine-enhanced dynamic MRI

PURPOSE

To evaluate the value of gadobenate dimeglumine-enhanced MRI in predicting the pathologic grade of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with pathologically proven HCC who underwent preoperative gadobenate dimeglumine-enhanced dynamic MRI were included. Two radiologists blinded to pathology results evaluated images in consensus. Lesions were evaluated quantitatively in terms of ratio of enhancement (RE), and qualitatively based on image features related to tumor aggressiveness. Logistic regression and ROC analyses were used to determine the value of these parameters to predict pathologic grade.

RESULTS

In total, 221 patients (194 males, 27 females, aged 52.9 ± 11.7 years) with 49 poorly differentiated HCCs and 172 well/moderately differentiated HCCs were evaluated. Features significantly related to poorer pathologic grade at univariate analysis included lower RE in the early arterial phase (EAP) (p = 0.001), nonsmooth margins (p = 0.001), absence of capsule (p < 0.001), arterial peritumoral hyperenhancement (p < 0.001), higher AFP (p = 0.004), multiple tumors (p = 0.026), and larger tumor size (p = 0.028). At multivariate analysis, lower RE (EAP) (OR = 0.144, p = 0.002), absence of capsule (OR = 0.281, p = 0.004), and arterial peritumoral hyperenhancement (OR = 4.117, p < 0.001) were independent predictive factors for poorer pathologic grade. ROC analysis showed lower RE (EAP) was predictive of poorer pathologic grade (AUC = 0.667). AUC increased to 0.797 when combined with absence of capsule and presence of peritumoral hyperenhancement.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower RE (EAP), absence of capsule, and arterial peritumoral hyperenhancement were predictive biomarkers for poorer pathologic grade of HCC on gadobenate dimeglumine-enhanced dynamic MRI.

KEY POINTS

• Gadobenate dimeglumine-enhanced dynamic MRI was a useful quantitative biomarker for preoperative prediction of pathologic grade in patients with HCC. • Lower RE in the early arterial phase, absence of capsule, and arterial peritumoral hyperenhancement were potential imaging indicators for preoperative prediction of poorer pathologic grade of HCC on gadobenate dimeglumine-enhanced MRI. • A lower RE in the early arterial phase was effective at predicting poorer pathologic grade of HCCs but prediction is improved when combined with absence of capsule and presence of peritumoral hyperenhancement.

Clinical impact of anatomical resection on long-term outcomes after hepatectomy for primary solitary hepatocellular carcinoma with or without preoperative positron emission tomography positivity

Background

There is little evidence indicating that anatomical resection (AR) is associated with improved survival in patients with solitary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who were preoperatively evaluated by positron emission tomography (PET). The aim of our study was to compare the oncologic outcomes of AR in PET-positive versus PET-negative patients with HCC.

Methods

From January 2007 to September 2015, 259 patients with preoperative PET underwent hepatectomy as the primary treatment for solitary HCC. Patients were divided into four groups according to PET uptake and hepatectomy type [AR or non-anatomical resection (NAR)]: Group 1 (PET-negative and AR, n=62); Group 2 (PET-negative and NAR, n= 46); Group 3 (PET-positive and AR, n=100); Group 4 (PET-positive and NAR, n=51).

Results

PET positivity was associated with higher protein induced by vitamin K antagonist-II (P=0.025), lager tumor size (P=0.05), microvascular invasion (MVI) (P=0.012), and portal vein invasion (P=0.031). In Kaplan-Meier analysis for RFS, Group 1 showed remarkable difference from Group 3 and Group 4 (P=0.045, P=0.023, respectively). In the PET-positive subgroup with HCC under 3 cm, AR was associated with better RFS than NAR (P=0.016).

Conclusions

A combination of AR and PET negativity showed good prognosis in long-term outcomes. Finally, AR can decrease the risk of tumor recurrence in patients with a solitary PET-positive HCC less than 3 cm.

Development and Validation of a Clinicopathological-Based Nomogram to Predict the Survival Outcome of Patients with Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Hepatectomy Who Underwent Microwave Ablation

Aim

To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) in patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatectomy who underwent microwave ablation (MWA).

Methods

The training cohort included 299 patients with recurrent HCCs after hepatectomy who met the Milan criteria and received MWA from April 2007 to December 2017. Baseline characteristics were collected to identify risk factors for the determination of death after MWA. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model based on significant risk factors was used to develop the nomogram, which was then assessed for its predictive accuracy using Harrell’s C-index and the area under the curve (AUC). The nomogram was validated by internal (n = 240) and external cohorts (n = 205) from another hospital.

Results

After a median follow-up of 32.3 months, 38.8% (116/299) of patients had died. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analyses showed that comorbid disease, early recurrence, and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grades 2–3 were independent prognostic factors for poor OS. This nomogram accurately stratified patients into subgroups with low or high risk. The 1-, 3- and 5-year OS rates in the low-risk subgroup were 99.4%, 97.2%, and 86.1%, respectively, and they were 92.8%, 70.3%, and 45.8% in the high-risk subgroup (P < 0.001). The nomogram predicted OS in the training cohort with a C-index score of 0.801 (95% CI 0.761–0.841). The nomogram was validated by internal and external cohorts, with C-index scores of 0.792 (95% CI 0.738–0.846) and 0.744 (95% CI 0.703–0.785), respectively.

Conclusion

The nomogram provides individualized risk estimates for long-term OS for patients with recurrent HCC after hepatectomy who underwent MWA.

Cancer Survival Data Representation for Improved Parametric and Dynamic Lifetime Analysis

Survival functions are often characterized by a median survival time or a 5-year survival. Whether or not such representation is sufficient depends on tumour development. Different tumour stages have different mean survival times after therapy. The validity of an exponential decay and the origins of deviations are substantiated. The paper shows, that representation of survival data as logarithmic functions visualizes differences better, which allows for differentiating short- and long-term dynamic lifetime. It is more instructive to represent the changing lifetime expectancy for an individual who has survived a certain time, which can be significantly different from the initial expectation just after treatment. Survival data from 15 publications on cancer are compared and re-analysed based on the well-established: (i) exponential decay (ii) piecewise constant hazard (iii) Weibull model and our proposed parametric survival models, (iv) the two-τ and (v) the sliding-τ model. The new models describe either accelerated aging or filtering out of defects with numerical parameters with a physical meaning and add information to the usually provided log-rank P-value or median survival. The statistical inhomogeneity in a group by mixing up different tumour stages, metastases and treatments is the main origin for deviations from the exponential decay.

Predicting hepatocellular carcinoma recurrences: A data-driven multiclass classification method incorporating latent variables

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a malignant form of cancer, is frequently treated with surgical resections, which have relatively high recurrence rates. Effective recurrence predictions enable physicians' timely detections and adequate therapeutic measures that can greatly improve patient care and outcomes. Toward that end, predictions of early versus late HCC recurrences should be considered separately to reflect their distinct onset time horizons, clinical causes, underlying clinical etiology, and pathogenesis. We propose a novel Bayesian network-based method to predict different HCC recurrence outcomes by considering the respective recurrence evolution paths. Typical patient information obtained in early stages is insufficiently informative to predict recurrence outcomes accurately, due to the lack of subsequent patient progression information. Our method alleviates such information deficiency constraints by incorporating an independent latent variable, dominant recurrence type, to regulate recurrence outcome predictions (early, late, or no recurrence). We use a real-world HCC data set to evaluate the proposed method, relative to three prevalent benchmark techniques. Overall, the results show that our method consistently and significantly outperforms all the benchmark techniques in terms of accuracy, precision, recall, and F-measures. For increased robustness, we use another data set to perform an out-of-sample evaluation and obtain similar results. This study thus contributes to HCC recurrence research and offers several implications for clinical practice.

Texture analysis on gadoxetic acid enhanced-MRI for predicting Ki-67 status in hepatocellular carcinoma: A prospective study

Objective

To investigate the value of whole-lesion texture analysis on preoperative gadoxetic acid enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for predicting tumor Ki-67 status after curative resection in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods

This study consisted of 89 consecutive patients with surgically confirmed HCC. Texture features were extracted from multiparametric MRI based on whole-lesion regions of interest. The Ki-67 status was immunohistochemical determined and classified into low Ki-67 (labeling index ≤15%) and high Ki-67 (labeling index >15%) groups. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression were applied for generating the texture signature, clinical nomogram and combined nomogram. The discrimination power, calibration and clinical usefulness of the three models were evaluated accordingly. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates after curative hepatectomy were also compared between groups.

Results

A total of 13 texture features were selected to construct a texture signature for predicting Ki-67 status in HCC patients (C-index: 0.878, 95% confidence interval: 0.791-0.937). After incorporating texture signature to the clinical nomogram which included significant clinical variates (AFP, BCLC-stage, capsule integrity, tumor margin, enhancing capsule), the combined nomogram showed higher discrimination ability (C-index: 0.936vs. 0.795, P<0.001), good calibration (P>0.05 in Hosmer-Lemeshow test) and higher clinical usefulness by decision curve analysis. RFS rate was significantly lower in the high Ki-67 group compared with the low Ki-67 group after curative surgery (63.27%vs. 85.00%, P<0.05).

Conclusions

Texture analysis on gadoxetic acid enhanced MRI can serve as a noninvasive approach to preoperatively predict Ki-67 status of HCC after curative resection. The combination of texture signature and clinical factors demonstrated the potential to further improve the prediction performance.

Radioembolisation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma that have previously received liver-directed therapies

Purpose

Radioembolisation is part of the multimodal treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at specialist liver centres. This study analysed the impact of prior treatment on tolerability and survival following radioembolisation.

Methods

This was a retrospective analysis of 325 consecutive patients with a confirmed diagnosis of HCC, who received radioembolisation with yttrium-90 resin microspheres at eight European centres between September 2003 and December 2009. The decision to treat was based on the clinical judgement of multidisciplinary teams. Patients were followed from the date of radioembolisation to last contact or death and the nature and severity of all adverse events (AEs) recorded from medical records.

Results

Most radioembolisation candidates were Child-Pugh class A (82.5%) with multinodular HCC (75.9%) invading both lobes (53.1%); 56.3% were advanced stage. Radioembolisation was used first-line in 57.5% of patients and second-line in 34.2%. Common prior procedures were transarterial (chemo)embolisation therapies (27.1%), surgical resection/transplantation (17.2%) and ablation (8.6%). There was no difference in AE incidence and severity between prior treatment subgroups. Median (95% confidence interval [CI]) survival following radioembolisation was similar between procedure-naive and prior treatment groups for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage A: 22.1 months (15.1–45.9) versus 30.9 months (19.6–46.8); p = 0.243); stage B: 18.4 months (11.2–19.4) versus 22.8 months (10.9–34.2); p = 0.815; and stage C: 8.8 months (7.1–10.8) versus 10.8 months (7.7–12.6); p = 0.976.

Conclusions

Radioembolisation is a valuable treatment option for patients who relapse following surgical, ablative or vascular procedures and remain suitable candidates for this treatment.

Immunological response induced by cryoablation against murine H22 hepatoma cell line in vivo

OBJECTIVES

To describe immunological consequences induced by cryoablation against H22 cells in vivo.

METHODS

Adult BALB/c mice underwent subcutaneous implantation of H22 cells. All of them were assigned into three groups randomly: group A (false surgery), group B (cryoablation) and group C (cryoablation plus Freund's adjuvant). Animals were sacrificed 1, 2 and 3 weeks after treatment. Serum IFN-γ and IL-4, Th1/Th2 in spleens and cytotoxicity were detected.

RESULTS

Compared with that of group A, (1) INF-γ of group B was higher, but IL-4 was lower; cryoablation plus Freund's adjuvant enhanced these effects. (2) Th1/Th2 rose significantly in both group B and group C. (3) Strong cytolytic activity against H22 cells of group B and group C was found on day 7, 14 and 21.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed a marked shift toward Th1 and IFN-γ expression after cryoablation, with an immuno-stimulatory effect against murine H22 hepatoma Cell.

Risk factors of early recurrence after curative hepatectomy in hepatocellular carcinoma

Early recurrence is common after curative hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma and is associated with poor prognosis. This study aimed to identify risk factors of early recurrence after curative hepatectomy in hepatocellular carcinoma. Overall, 63 patients who underwent curative hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma were enrolled. Patients were divided into the early recurrence group, who developed recurrence within 12 months after hepatectomy (n = 10), and the non-early recurrence group (n = 53). Clinicopathological factors of early recurrence were retrospectively analyzed. Among the 63 patients, 10 (15.9%) patients experienced early recurrence. Univariate analysis showed tumor necrosis (p = 0.012), level of PIVKA-II (prothrombin induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II; p = 0.002), and microvascular invasion (p = 0.029) to be associated with early recurrence. By multivariate analysis, there were significant differences in high PIVKA-II (p < 0.001) and tumor necrosis (p = 0.012) in patients with early recurrence. The optimal cutoff values of PIVKA-II and tumor necrosis were 46 mAU/mL and 3% of total tumor volume, respectively. Patients with a high preoperative PIVKA-II level and extent of tumor necrosis, which are independent risk factors for early recurrence, should be actively treated and monitored closely after hepatectomy.

Patients with early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma have poor prognosis

BACKGROUND

Early recurrence (ER) after hepatic resection (HR) is a poor prognostic factor for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to identify the clinicopathological features, outcomes, and risk factors for ER after HR for small HCC in order to clarify the reasons why ER is a worse recurrence pattern.

METHODS

We retrospectively examined 130 patients who underwent HR for small HCC (≤30 mm). Recurrence was classified into ER (<2 years) and late recurrence (LR) (≥2 years). The clinicopathological features, outcomes, and risk factors for ER were analyzed by multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

ER was observed in 39 patients (30.0%). The survival rate of the ER group was significantly lower than that of the LR group (P<0.005), and ER was an independent prognostic factor for poor survival (P=0.0001). The ER group had a significantly higher frequency (P=0.0039) and shorter interval (P=0.027) of development to carcinoma beyond the Milan criteria (DBMC) compared with the LR group, and ER was an independent risk factor for DBMC (P<0.0001). Multi-nodularity, non-simple nodular type, and microvascular invasion were independent predictors for ER (P=0.012, 0.010, and 0.019, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

ER was a highly malignant recurrence pattern associated with DBMC and subsequent poor survival after HR for small HCC. Multi-nodularity, non-simple nodular type, and microvascular invasion predict ER, and taking these factors into consideration may be useful for the decision of the treatment strategy for small HCC after HR.

Edmondson-Steiner grade: A crucial predictor of recurrence and survival in hepatocellular carcinoma without microvascular invasio

BACKGROUND

Microvascular invasion (MVI), an important pathologic parameter, has been proven to be a powerful predictor of long-term prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, prognostic factors in HCC without MVI remain unknown. The present study aimed to identify the risk factors of recurrence and poor post-resectional survival in this type of HCC.

METHODS AND METHODS

A total of 109 patients with MVI-absent HCC underwent radical hepatectomy were enrolled. The influence of clinicopathologic variables on recurrence and patient survival was assessed using univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

Chi-square test found that Edmondson-Steiner grade and satellite nodule were significantly associated with recurrence, while the former was the single marker for early recurrence. Stepwise logistic regression analysis demonstrated the independent predictive role of Edmondson-Steiner grade for recurrence. On the other hand, Edmondson-Steiner grade, serum AFP level and satellite nodule were significant for overall and disease-free survival in univariate analysis, whereas tumor size was linked to disease-free survival. Of the variables, Edmondson-Steiner grade, serum AFP level and satellite nodule were independent indicators.

CONCLUSIONS

Edmondson-Steiner grade, a histological classification, carries robust prognostic implications for all the endpoints for prognosis, thus being potential to be a crucial prognosticator in HCC without MVI.

Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging combined with T1 mapping predicts the degree of differentiation in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Variable degrees of differentiation in hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)under Edmondson-Steiner grading system has been proven to be an independent prognostic indicator for HCC. Up till now, there has been no effective radiological method that can reveal the degree of differentiation in HCC before surgery. This paper aims to evaluate the use of Gd-EOB-DTPA-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging combined with T1 mapping for the diagnosis of HCC and assessing its degree of differentiation.

METHODS

Forty-four patients with 53 pathologically proven HCC had undergone Gd-EOB-DTPA enhanced MRI with T1 mapping before surgery. Out of the 53 lesions,13 were grade I, 27 were gradeII, and 13 were grade III. The T1 values of each lesion were measured before and at 20 min after Gd-EOB-DTPA administration (T1p and T1e). The absolute reduction in T1 value (T1d) and the percentage reduction (T1d %) were calculated. The one-way ANOVA and Pearson correlation were used for comparisons between the T1 mapping values.

RESULTS

The T1d and T1d % of grade I, II and III of HCC was 660.5 ± 422.8ms、295.0 ± 99.6ms、276.2 ± 95.0ms and 54.0 ± 12.2 %、31.5 ± 6.9 %、27.7 ± 6.7 % respectively. The differences between grade Iand II, grade Iand III were statistically significant (p < 0.05), but there was no statically significant difference between grade II and III. The T1d % was the best marker for grading of HCC, with a Spearman correlation coefficient of -0.676.

CONCLUSIONS

T1 mapping before and after Gd-EOB-DTPA administration can predict degree of differentiation in HCC.

The prognostic value of a classification system for centrally located liver tumors in the setting of hepatocellular carcinoma after mesohepatectomy

BACKGROUND

A classification system of centrally located liver tumors (CLLTs) was proposed by our group in 2013, which divided CLLTs into four subtypes by focusing on the involvement of resected segments and the anatomical location of lesions relative to the principal hepatic vascular structures. The current study aimed to analyze the clinical characteristics and compare the surgical outcomes of the different CLLTs classification system for patients with hepatocelluar carcinoma (HCC) underwent mesohepatectomy (MH). Moreover, we sought to validate the prognostic value of the new classification system.

METHODS

Data from 353 consecutive patients with centrally located HCC who were treated with MH between 2005 and 2013 were prospectively collected and retrospectively reviewed.

RESULTS

The 1-, 3-, and 5-y overall recurrence rates were 21.4%, 41.3%, and 55.6%, respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-y overall (OS) and corresponding recurrence-free survival rates (RFS) were 82.5%, 61.6%, 40.2%, and 68.8%, 42.5%, 30.7%, respectively. According the CLLTs classification system, 106 patients were classified as type I, 68 as type II, 94 as type III and 85 as type IV. There were no significant differences in RFS rate among the CLLTs groups, however, a significant decrease in OS rates was observed in the type IV classification, respectively. Multivariate analysis reveal that patients with microvascular invasion, portal vein thrombosis, the largest tumor size≥5 cm, tumor number≥3, liver cirrhosis, hepatic inflow occlusion ≥60 min, intraoperative blood loss≥1500 ml, pTNM staging and CLLTs classification of Type IV to be independent adverse factors for long-term survivals.

CONCLUSION

The classification system of CLLTs is meant to help clinicians in defining the extent of resection, providing a risk assessment and predicting prognosis. However, it is need to be validated in more HCC patients and medical centers.

A comparison of the risk factors of intrahepatic recurrence, early recurrencen, and multiple recurrences after resection for single nodular hepatocellular carcinoma

Backgrounds/Aims

Intrahepatic recurrence is one of the most important causes of compromised prognosis after surgical resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This retrospective study was designed to identify and compare the risks of recurrence, early recurrence and multiple recurrences in a single patient population.

Methods

A series of 92 consecutive patients, who received resection for single nodular HCC at our institute from January 2007 to December 2013, were enrolled in this study. The patients were divided into recurrent and non-recurrent groups; the recurrent group was further divided into subgroups by applying two criteria: early and late recurrence (with a cutoff of 18 months), and single and multiple (≥2) recurrence. The potential risk factors were compared using univariate and multivariate analyses. The subgroup analysis was performed to determine the effects of different cut-off values on the analysis.

Results

41 recurrences (44.6%) occurred during a mean follow-up of 42.4 months. The Child-Pugh score, and the portal vein invasion were found to be independent risk factors of recurrence, but differentiation was the only independent risk factor of early recurrence. The serum alpha-fetoprotein, tumor size, tumor necrosis, and hemorrhage were found to be the risk factors of multiple recurrences according to the univariate analysis, but lacked significance according to the multivariate analysis. When the cutoffs for early and multiple recurrences were changed to ≤10 months and >3 nodules, respectively, different risk factors were identified.

Conclusions

Our results implicated that different factors can predict the recurrence, timing, and multiplicity of an HCC recurrence. Further studies should be conducted to prove the complex relationships between tumor burden, invasiveness, and underlying liver cirrhosis for initial tumors, and the timing and multiplicity of recurrent HCC.