Bridging Efficacy of a Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine from Children/Adolescents to Adults in Highly Endemic Countries Based on Neutralizing Antibody Response

Identification of RTS,S/AS01 vaccine-induced humoral biomarkers predictive of protection against controlled human malaria infection

BACKGROUNDThe mechanism(s) responsible for the efficacy of WHO-recommended malaria vaccine RTS,S/AS01 are not completely understood. We previously identified RTS,S vaccine-induced Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein-specific (PfCSP-specific) antibody measures associated with protection from controlled human malaria infection (CHMI). Here, we tested the protection-predicting capability of these measures in independent CHMI studies.METHODSVaccine-induced total serum antibody (immunoglobulins, Igs) and subclass antibody (IgG1 and IgG3) responses were measured by biolayer interferometry and the binding antibody multiplex assay, respectively. Immune responses were compared between protected and nonprotected vaccinees using univariate and multivariate logistic regression.RESULTSBlinded prediction analysis showed that 5 antibody binding measures, including magnitude-avidity composite of serum Ig specific for PfCSP, major NANP repeats and N-terminal junction, and PfCSP- and NANP-specific IgG1 subclass magnitude, had good prediction accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves [ROC AUC] > 0.7) in at least 1 trial. Furthermore, univariate analysis showed a significant association between these antibody measures and protection (odds ratios 2.6-3.1). Multivariate modeling of combined data from 3 RTS,S CHMI trials identified the combination of IgG1 NANP binding magnitude plus serum NANP and N-junction Ig binding magnitude-avidity composite as the best predictor of protection (95% confidence interval for ROC AUC 0.693-0.834).CONCLUSIONThese results reinforce our previous findings and provide a tool for predicting protection in future trials.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT03162614, NCT03824236, NCT01366534, and NCT01857869.FUNDINGThis study was supported by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation's Global Health-Discovery Collaboratory grants (INV-008612 and INV-043419) to GDT.

Dengue virus IgG and serotype-specific neutralizing antibody titers measured with standard and mature viruses are associated with protection

Recent work demonstrates the limitations of the standard dengue virus (DENV) neutralization assay to predict protection against dengue. We perform studies to compare how a commercial IgG ELISA, envelope domain III (EDIII) or non-structural protein 1 (NS1) binding antibodies, and titers from plaque reduction neutralization tests (PRNTs) using reference standard and clinical mature viruses are associated with dengue disease. Healthy children (n = 1,206) in Cebu, Philippines were followed for 5 years. High ELISA values (≥3) were associated with reduced dengue probability relative to naïve children (3% vs. 10%, p = 0.008), but antibody binding EDIII or NS1 from each serotype had no association. High standard and mature geometric mean PRNT titers were associated with reduced dengue disease overall (p < 0.01), and high DENV2 and DENV3 titers in both assays provided protection against the matched serotype (p < 0.02). However, while 52% of dengue cases had standard virus PRNT titers > 100, only 2% of cases had mature virus PRNT titers > 100 (p < 0.001), indicating a lower, more consistent threshold for protection. Each assay may be useful for different purposes as correlates of protection in population and vaccine trials.

Bridging the immunogenicity of a tetravalent dengue vaccine (TAK-003) from children and adolescents to adults

Immunobridging is an important methodology that can be used to extrapolate vaccine efficacy estimates to populations not evaluated in clinical studies, and that has been successfully used in developing many vaccines. Dengue, caused by a mosquito-transmitted flavivirus endemic to many tropical and subtropical regions, is traditionally thought of as a pediatric disease but is now a global threat to both children and adults. We bridged immunogenicity data from a phase 3 efficacy study of a tetravalent dengue vaccine (TAK-003), performed in children and adolescents living in endemic areas, with an immunogenicity study in adults in non-endemic areas. Neutralizing antibody responses were comparable in both studies following receipt of a two-dose TAK-003 schedule (months 0 and 3). Similar immune responses were observed across exploratory assessments of additional humoral responses. These data support the potential for clinical efficacy of TAK-003 in adults.

Emergent variant modeling of the serological repertoire to norovirus in young children

Human norovirus is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis. Young children and the elderly bear the greatest burden of disease, representing more than 200,000 deaths annually. Infection prevalence peaks at younger than 2 years and is driven by novel GII.4 variants that emerge and spread globally. Using a surrogate neutralization assay, we characterize the evolution of the serological neutralizing antibody (nAb) landscape in young children as they transition between sequential GII.4 pandemic variants. Following upsurge of the replacement variant, antigenic cartography illustrates remodeling of the nAb landscape to the new variant accompanied by improved nAb titer. However, nAb relative avidity remains focused on the preceding variant. These data support immune imprinting as a mechanism of immune evasion and GII.4 virus persistence across a population. Understanding the complexities of immunity to rapidly evolving and co-circulating viral variants, like those of norovirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2), and dengue viruses, will fundamentally inform vaccine design for emerging pathogens.

The quest for vaccine-induced immune correlates of protection against tuberculosis

Immunization strategies against tuberculosis (TB) that confer better protection than neonatal vaccination with the 101-year-old Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) are urgently needed to control the epidemic, but clinical development is hampered by a lack of established immune correlates of protection (CoPs). Two phase 2b clinical trials offer the first opportunity to discover human CoPs against TB. Adolescent BCG re-vaccination showed partial protection against Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection, as measured by sustained IFNγ release assay (IGRA) conversion. Adult M72/AS01E vaccination showed partial protection against pulmonary TB. We describe two collaborative research programs to discover CoPs against TB and ensure rigorous, streamlined use of available samples, involving international immunology experts in TB and state-of-the-art technologies, sponsors and funders. Hypotheses covering immune responses thought to be important in protection against TB have been defined and prioritized. A statistical framework to integrate the data analysis strategy was developed. Exploratory analyses will be performed to generate novel hypotheses.

Vaccine-induced antibodies to contemporary strains of dengue virus type 4 show a mechanistic correlate of protective immunity

The four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) are mosquito-borne flaviviruses of humans. Several live-attenuated tetravalent DENV vaccines are at different stages of clinical development and approval. In children with no baseline immunity to DENVs, a leading vaccine (Dengvaxia) is efficacious against vaccine-matched DENV4 genotype II (GII) strains but not vaccine-mismatched DENV4 GI viruses. We use a panel of recombinant DENV4 viruses displaying GI or GII envelope (E) proteins to map Dengvaxia-induced neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) linked to protection. The vaccine stimulated antibodies that neutralize the DENV4 GII virus better than the GI virus. The neutralization differences map to 5 variable amino acids on the E protein located within a region targeted by DENV4 NAbs, supporting a mechanistic role for these epitope-specific NAbs in protection. In children with no baseline immunity to DENVs, levels of DENV4 serotype- and genotype-specific NAbs induced by vaccination are predictive of vaccine efficacy.

Change Point Inference in the Presence of Missing Covariates for Principal Surrogate Evaluation in Vaccine Trials

We consider the use of threshold-based regression models for evaluating immune response biomarkers as principal surrogate markers of a vaccine's protective effect. Threshold-based regression models, which allow the relationship between a clinical outcome and a covariate to change dramatically across a threshold value in the covariate, have been studied by various authors under fully observed data. Limited research, however, has examined these models in the presence of missing covariates, such as the counterfactual potential immune responses of a participant in the placebo arm of a standard vaccine trial had s/he been assigned to the vaccine arm instead. Based on a hinge model for a threshold effect of the principal surrogate on vaccine efficacy, we develop a regression methodology that consists of two components: (1) The estimated likelihood method is employed to handle missing potential outcomes, and (2) a penalty is imposed on the estimated likelihood to ensure satisfactory finite sample performance. We develop a method that allows joint estimation of all model parameters as well as a two-step method that separates the estimation of the threshold parameter from the rest of the parameters. Stable iterative algorithms are developed to implement the two methods and the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. In simulation studies, the proposed estimators are shown to have satisfactory finite sample performance. The proposed methods are applied to analyze a real dataset collected from dengue vaccine efficacy trials to predict how vaccine efficacy varies with an individual's potential immune response if receiving vaccine.

Analysis of Hospitalized and Severe Dengue Cases Over the 6 years of Follow-up of the Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine (CYD-TDV) Efficacy Trials in Asia and Latin America

Background

CYD-TDV, a live, attenuated, tetravalent dengue vaccine, has been approved for the prevention of symptomatic dengue in previously dengue exposed individuals. This post hoc analysis assessed hospitalized and severe virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) over the complete 6-year follow-up of 3 CYD-TDV efficacy studies (CYD14, CYD15, and CYD23/CYD57).

Methods

The main outcomes were hazard ratios (HRs) for hospitalized or severe VCD by baseline dengue serostatus, focusing on those who were seropositive, and by age at immunization (<9 years/≥9 years). Baseline dengue serostatus was measured or inferred using several methods. Hospitalized VCD cases were characterized in terms of clinical signs and symptoms and wild-type viremia level. Antibody persistence was assessed up to 5 years after the last injection.

Results

In those aged ≥9 years and baseline seropositive, CYD-TDV protected against hospitalized and severe VCD over 6 years compared to placebo (HR [95% confidence interval] multiple imputation from month 0 method, .19 [.12–.30] and .15 [.06–.39]; other methods were consistent). Vaccine protection was observed over the different study periods, being highest during the first 2 years. Evidence for a decreased risk of hospitalized and severe VCD was also observed in seropositive participants aged 6–8 years. Clinical signs and symptoms, and quantified dengue viremia from participants with hospitalized VCD were comparable between groups.

Conclusions

CYD-TDV demonstrated robust protection against hospitalized and severe VCD over the entire 6-year follow-up in participants who were seropositive and ≥9 years old. Protection was also observed in seropositive 6–8 year-olds.

Clinical Trials Registration: NCT00842530, NCT01983553, NCT01373281, NCT01374516.

Immunogenicity and Safety of a Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine Administered Concomitantly or Sequentially With Tdap Vaccine: Randomized Phase IIIb Trial in Healthy Participants 9-60 Years of Age in the Philippines

BACKGROUND

Incorporating dengue vaccination into existing childhood vaccination programs could increase vaccine coverage. This study assessed the safety and immunogenicity of concomitant versus sequential administration of the combined tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine and the tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV).

METHODS

This phase IIIb, randomized, open-label, multicenter study was conducted in the Philippines in individuals 9-≤60 years of age (NCT02992418). Participants were to receive 3 CYD-TDV doses 6 months apart, the first dose administered either concomitantly or sequentially (28 days post-Tdap). Antibody levels were measured at baseline and 28 days post-first doses of Tdap vaccine and CYD-TDV, using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (pertussis, tetanus), micrometabolic inhibition test-toxin neutralization assay (diphtheria) and plaque reduction neutralization test (dengue). Immunogenicity was assessed for all participants, and statistical analysis reported for baseline dengue seropositive participants. Safety was assessed throughout.

RESULTS

Among 688 randomized participants, 629 (91.4%) were baseline dengue seropositive (concomitant group, n = 314 and sequential group, n = 315). After the first dose, non-inferiority of immune responses between concomitant and sequential vaccination was achieved; between-group geometric mean antibody concentration ratios were close to 1 for anti-PT, anti-FHA, anti-PRN and anti-FIM, between-group differences in percent achieving seroprotection (titers ≥0.1 IU/mL) were 0.26% (diphtheria) and 0.66% (tetanus), and between-group geometric mean antibody titer ratios were close to 1 for dengue serotypes 1-4. Safety profiles in both study groups were comparable.

CONCLUSIONS

CYD-TDV and Tdap vaccine administered concomitantly or sequentially in baseline dengue seropositive participants elicited comparable immunogenicity and safety profiles.

Immunobridging efficacy of a tetravalent dengue vaccine against dengue and against hospitalized dengue from children/adolescents to adults in highly endemic countries

BACKGROUND

The recombinant tetravalent live-attenuated dengue vaccine based on the YF 17D vaccine virus backbone (CYD-TDV) demonstrated vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue of any serotype from month 13 to month 25 (VCD-DENV-AnyM13→M25) in the CYD14 (2-14-y-olds) and CYD15 (9-16-y-olds) phase 3 trials. Fifty percent plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT50) titers are a potential surrogate for immunobridging VE to adults.

METHODS

Using PRNT50 calibration datasets, we applied immunobridging approaches using baseline and/or M13 PRNT50 titers to estimate VE against VCD-DENV-AnyM0→M25 and against hospitalized VCD (HVCD)-DENV-AnyM0→M72 in hypothetical 18-45-y-old and 46-50-y-old CYD14 and CYD15 cohorts.

RESULTS

Baseline and M13 geometric mean PRNT50 titers were greater in 18-45-y-olds and in 46-50-y-olds vs 9-16-y-olds for most comparisons. Estimated VE (95% CIs against VCD-DENV-AnyM0→M25 ranged from 75.3% to 90.9% (52.5% to 100%) for 18-45-y-olds and 74.8% to 92.0% (53.4% to 100%) for 46-50-y-olds. Estimated VE (95% CIs) against HVCD-DENV-AnyM0→M72 ranged from 58.8% to 78.1% (40.9 to 98.9%) for 18-45-y-olds and 57.2% to 78.4% (40.5 to 97.6%) for 46-50-y-olds. Corresponding predictions among baseline-seropositive individuals yielded comparable or higher VE estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

VE M0→M25 against DENV-Any and VE against HVCD-DENV-AnyM0→M72 are both expected to be higher in 18-45 and 46-50-y-olds vs CYD14 and CYD15 9-16-y-olds.

Evaluation of treatment effect modification by biomarkers measured pre- and post-randomization in the presence of non-monotone missingness

In vaccine studies, an important research question is to study effect modification of clinical treatment efficacy by intermediate biomarker-based principal strata. In settings where participants entering a trial may have prior exposure and therefore variable baseline biomarker values, clinical treatment efficacy may further depend jointly on a biomarker measured at baseline and measured at a fixed time after vaccination. This makes it important to conduct a bivariate effect modification analysis by both the intermediate biomarker-based principal strata and the baseline biomarker values. Existing research allows this assessment if the sampling of baseline and intermediate biomarkers follows a monotone pattern, i.e., if participants who have the biomarker measured post-randomization would also have the biomarker measured at baseline. However, additional complications in study design could happen in practice. For example, in a dengue correlates study, baseline biomarker values were only available from a fraction of participants who have biomarkers measured post-randomization. How to conduct the bivariate effect modification analysis in these studies remains an open research question. In this article, we propose approaches for bivariate effect modification analysis in the complicated sampling design based on an estimated likelihood framework. We demonstrate advantages of the proposed method over existing methods through numerical studies and illustrate our method with data sets from two phase 3 dengue vaccine efficacy trials.