Outcome of Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) Infection in Pediatric and Adult Patients at Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, Lao PDR

Hijacking autophagy for infection by flaviviruses

Autophagy is a lysosomal degradative pathway, which regulates the homeostasis of eukaryotic cells. This pathway can degrade misfolded or aggregated proteins, clear damaged organelles, and eliminate intracellular pathogens, including viruses, bacteria, and parasites. But, not all types of viruses are eliminated by autophagy. Flaviviruses (e.g., Yellow fever, Japanese encephalitis, Hepatitis C, Dengue, Zika, and West Nile viruses) are single-stranded and enveloped RNA viruses, and transmitted to humans primarily through the bites of arthropods, leading to severe and widespread illnesses. Like the coronavirus SARS-CoV-II, flaviviruses hijack autophagy for their infection and escape from host immune clearance. Thus, it is possible to control these viral infections by inhibiting autophagy. In this review, we summarize recent research progresses on hijacking of autophagy by flaviviruses and discuss the feasibility of antiviral therapies using autophagy inhibitors.

Regulation of Onecut2 by miR-9-5p in Japanese encephalitis virus infected neural stem/progenitor cells

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is one of the major neurotropic viral infections that is known to dysregulate the homeostasis of neural stem/progenitor cells (NSPCs) and depletes the stem cell pool. NSPCs are multipotent stem cell population of the central nervous system (CNS) which are known to play an important role in the repair of the CNS during insults/injury caused by several factors such as ischemia, neurological disorders, CNS infections, and so on. Viruses have evolved to utilize host factors for their own benefit and during JEV infection, host factors, including the non-coding RNAs such as miRNAs, are reported to be affected, thereby cellular processes regulated by the miRNAs exhibit perturbed functionality. Previous studies from our laboratory have demonstrated the role of JEV infection in dysregulating the function of neural stem cells (NSCs) by altering the cell fate and depleting the stem cell pool leading to a decline in stem cell function in CNS repair mechanism post-infection. JEV-induced alteration in miRNA expression in the NSCs is one of the major interest to us. In prior studies, we have observed an altered expression pattern of certain miRNAs following JEV infection. In this study, we have validated the role of JEV infection in NSCs in altering the expression of miR-9-5p, which is a known regulator of neurogenesis in NSCs. Furthermore, we have validated the interaction of this miRNA with its target, Onecut2 (OC2), in primary NSCs utilizing miRNA mimic and inhibitor transfection experiments. Our findings indicate a possible role of JEV mediated dysregulated interaction between miR-9-5p and its putative target OC2 in NSPCs.

IMPORTANCE

MicroRNAs have emerged as key disease pathogenic markers and potential therapeutic targets. In this study, we solidify this concept by studying a key miRNA, miR-9-5p, in Japanese encephalitis virus infection of neural stem/progenitor cells. miRNA target Onecut2 has a possible role in stem cell pool biology. Here, we show a possible mechanistic axis worth investing in neurotropic viral biology.

Trends in emerging vector-borne viral infections and their outcome in children over two decades

This review utilizes quatitative methods and bibliometric data to analyse the trends of emerging and re-emerging vector-borne diseases, with a focus on their impact on pediatric population. To conduct this analysis, a systematic search of PubMed articles from the past two decades was performed, specifically looking at 26 different vector-borne viruses listed in WHO and CDC list of vector-borne viruses. The review found that diseases like Dengue, Zika, West Nile, and Chikungunya were frequently discussed in the literature. On the other hand, diseases such as Tick-borne encephalitis, Rift Valley fever, Venezuelan equine encephalitis, Sindbis fever, Venezuelan equine encephalitis, Ross River virus, and Eastern equine encephalitis showed an upward trend in publications, indicating potential resurgence. In addition to discussing trends and patterns, the review delves into the clinical manifestations and long-term effects of the top 10 viruses in children. It highlights various factors including deforestation, urbanization, global travel, and immunosuppression that contribute to disease emergence and resurgence. To effectively combat these vector-borne diseases, continuous surveillance is crucial. The review also emphasizes the importance of increased vaccination efforts and targeted research to address the health challenges they pose. IMPACT: This review employs quantitative analysis of publications to elucidate trends in emerging pediatric vector-borne viral diseases over two decades. Dengue, the most prevalent of these diseases, has spread to new regions. New strains of Japanese Encephalitis have caused outbreaks. Resurgence of Tick-borne Encephalitis, West Nile, and Yellow Fever due to vaccine hesitancy has also transpired. Continuous global surveillance, increased vaccination, and research into novel therapeutics are imperative to combat the substantial morbidity and mortality burden these diseases pose for children worldwide.

Metabolic response to CNS infection with flaviviruses

Flaviviruses are arthropod-borne RNA viruses found worldwide that, when introduced into the human body, cause diseases, including neuroinfections, that can lead to serious metabolic consequences and even death. Some of the diseases caused by flaviviruses occur continuously in certain regions, while others occur intermittently or sporadically, causing epidemics. Some of the most common flaviviruses are West Nile virus, dengue virus, tick-borne encephalitis virus, Zika virus and Japanese encephalitis virus. Since all the above-mentioned viruses are capable of penetrating the blood-brain barrier through different mechanisms, their actions also affect the central nervous system (CNS). Like other viruses, flaviviruses, after entering the human body, contribute to redox imbalance and, consequently, to oxidative stress, which promotes inflammation in skin cells, in the blood and in CNS. This review focuses on discussing the effects of oxidative stress and inflammation resulting from pathogen invasion on the metabolic antiviral response of the host, and the ability of viruses to evade the consequences of metabolic changes or exploit them for increased replication and further progression of infection, which affects the development of sequelae and difficulties in therapy.

Clinical Manifestations and Disability After Acute Encephalitis Syndrome Among Pediatric Patients in Eastern Uttar Pradesh: A Retrospective Analysis

Introduction Acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) in pediatric patients can lead to a range of disabilities, affecting various aspects of their daily lives. The disease is caused by a diverse group of pathogens including viruses, bacteria, fungi, and protozoans. While significant progress has been made in combating the acute phase of the disease, the lingering effects on the physical, cognitive, and emotional well-being of survivors have yet to be comprehensively explored. The present retrospective study was conducted to investigate disabilities including neurological squeals and functional impairment challenges faced by AES survivors as they navigate life with disabilities. Methods We conducted a comprehensive retrospective analysis of medical records of pediatric patients diagnosed with AES and evaluated their follow-up visits at regular intervals during the study period. The Liverpool scoring system and clinical examinations were utilized to assess the presence and severity of disabilities in the patients. Results A total of 134 pediatric AES patients were included in the study; among them, 56% were males, and 44% were females. The mean age of the participants was 4.8 ± 3.1 years, and the mean number of days of hospitalization was 27.8 ± 30.8. Only 9.7% of the patients were found to be Japanese encephalitis (JE)-positive, and 87.5% of the participants were found to have disabilities in some or the other domain of the Liverpool Outcome Score (LOS). There were statistically significant correlations between the age of the patients and the LOS at follow-up. Post-recovery disabilities were more severe among patients who required a prolonged duration of hospitalization. Conclusion A considerable proportion of AES survivors are left with disabilities. Causes other than Japanese encephalitis are now more frequent in AES. The need for prolonged hospitalization is related to more severe disabilities. The early identification of disabilities through the Liverpool scoring system and clinical examination can aid in implementing appropriate intervention strategies.

Estimating the cost of illness of acute Japanese encephalitis and sequelae care in Vietnam and Laos: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a leading cause of acute encephalitis syndrome and resulting neurological disability in Asia and the Western Pacific. This study aims to estimate the cost of acute care, initial rehabilitation and sequelae care, in Vietnam and Laos.

METHODOLOGY

We conducted a cross-sectional retrospective study using a micro-costing approach from the health system and household perspectives. Out-of-pocket direct medical and non-medical costs, indirect costs, and family impact were reported by patients and/or caregivers. Hospitalization costs were extracted from hospital charts. Acute costs covered expenditures from pre-hospital to follow-up visits while sequelae care costs were estimated from expenditures in the last 90 days. All costs are in 2021 US dollars.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

242 patients in two major sentinel sites in the North and South of Vietnam and 65 patients in a central hospital in Vientiane, Laos, with laboratory-confirmed JE were recruited regardless of age, sex, and ethnicity. In Vietnam, the mean total cost was $3,371 per acute JE episode (median $2,071, standard error [SE] $464) while annual costs were $404 for initial sequelae care (median $0, SE $220) and $320 for long-term sequelae care (median $0, SE $108). In Laos, the mean hospitalization costs in acute stage were $2,005 (median $1,698, SE $279) and the mean annual costs were $2,317 (median $0, SE $2,233) for initial sequelae care and $89 (median $0, SE $57) for long-term sequelae care. In both countries, most patients did not seek care for their sequelae. Families perceived extreme impact from JE and 20% to 30% of households still had sustained debts years after acute JE.

CONCLUSIONS

JE patients and families in Vietnam and Laos suffer extreme medical, economic, and social hardship. This has policy implications for improving JE prevention in these two JE-endemic countries.

Mice as an Animal Model for Japanese Encephalitis Virus Research: Mouse Susceptibility, Infection Route, and Viral Pathogenesis

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), a zoonotic flavivirus, is principally transmitted by hematophagous mosquitoes, continually between susceptible animals and incidentally from those animals to humans. For almost a century since its discovery, JEV was geographically confined to the Asia-Pacific region with recurrent sizable outbreaks involving wildlife, livestock, and people. However, over the past decade, it has been detected for the first time in Europe (Italy) and Africa (Angola) but has yet to cause any recognizable outbreaks in humans. JEV infection leads to a broad spectrum of clinical outcomes, ranging from asymptomatic conditions to self-limiting febrile illnesses to life-threatening neurological complications, particularly Japanese encephalitis (JE). No clinically proven antiviral drugs are available to treat the development and progression of JE. There are, however, several live and killed vaccines that have been commercialized to prevent the infection and transmission of JEV, yet this virus remains the main cause of acute encephalitis syndrome with high morbidity and mortality among children in the endemic regions. Therefore, significant research efforts have been directed toward understanding the neuropathogenesis of JE to facilitate the development of effective treatments for the disease. Thus far, multiple laboratory animal models have been established for the study of JEV infection. In this review, we focus on mice, the most extensively used animal model for JEV research, and summarize the major findings on mouse susceptibility, infection route, and viral pathogenesis reported in the past and present, and discuss some unanswered key questions for future studies.

Japanese Encephalitis among Adults: A Review

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is becoming an increasingly important issue among adults. The reasons for this are multifactorial. During the past decades, new areas of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) transmission have occurred in several locations, most notably in a markedly expanded area of Australia during 2021-2022. When JEV enters new areas, cases in adults frequently occur. This is unlike the typical pattern in endemic areas where the burden of disease is in children because most adults are protected through natural immunity following earlier exposure to the virus. Even in endemic areas, JEV has become relatively more important in adults because improved JE control through childhood immunization programs has resulted in a substantial decrease in pediatric JE cases and thus more prominence of adult JE cases. Finally, increases in tourism to JE risk areas have resulted in more exposure of adult travelers, who are usually non-immune, to infection in JE risk areas. In this review we describe the increasing importance of JE in adults in some areas and then consider the comparative clinical presentation and severity of illness among children and adults.

Clinical characteristics and short-term outcomes of Japanese encephalitis in pediatric and adult patients: a retrospective study in Northern China

Objective

The study aimed to compare the clinical characteristics and short-term outcomes of pediatric and adult Japanese encephalitis (JE) patients in order to find out the differences.

Methods

From August 2006 to October 2019, 107 patients (62 pediatric patients and 45 adult patients) with JE were enrolled. Clinical characteristics and short-term outcomes were analyzed. The short-term outcome of each patient was defined as a good outcome or poor outcome according to their Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores (GCS > 8 vs. GCS ≤ 8) at discharge.

Results

As for acute complications, the incidence of pulmonary infection was higher in 25 adults (25/45, 55.6%) than in 19 children (19/62, 30.6%; P = 0.01). Upper gastrointestinal bleeding was more common in patients with pulmonary infection, with 10 of these patients experiencing the symptom (10/44, 22.7%) compared to only one patient without pulmonary infection (1/63, 1.6%; P = 0.001). The proportion of mechanical ventilation and admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) for supportive care was higher in patients with pulmonary infection than in patients without infection (P < 0.001, P = 0.008, respectively). The GCS scores at discharge in patients with pulmonary infection (7, 4-12.75) were lower than in patients without pulmonary infection (14, 10-14; P < 0.001). Although the GCS scores at the admission of children (9.5, 7-13) were similar to that of adults (7, 6-13), the GCS scores at the discharge of adults (7, 3.5-13) were lower than that of children (13, 10.75-14; P < 0.001).

Conclusion

The short-term outcome of JE was worse in adults. Pulmonary infection was correlated with a high incidence of upper gastrointestinal bleeding, mechanical ventilation, and ICU hospitalization in JE. Pulmonary infection is a prognostic predictor of short-term outcomes in patients with JE. Vaccination for adults should be initiated.

Safety profile comparison of chimeric live attenuated and Vero cell-derived inactivated Japanese encephalitis vaccines through an active surveillance system in Australia

Limited information is available about post-marketing safety of Japanese encephalitis (JE) vaccines. Using data from SmartVax, an active surveillance system for monitoring vaccine safety, adverse events following immunizations (AEFIs) were compared between the two JE vaccines available in Australia (a chimeric live attenuated vaccine [Imojev] and a Vero cell-derived inactivated vaccine [JEspect]). Data from 2756 patients (1855 Imojev and 901 JEspect) were included. Overall (7.0%), systemic (2.8%), and local (1.9%) AEFIs were uncommon. There were no significant differences in the odds of overall (OR = 1.27; 95%CI: 0.91–1.77), systemic (OR = 1.23; 95%CI: 0.74–2.06), or local (OR = 1.20; 95%CI: 0.65–2.22) AEFIs with Imojev compared to JEspect. There was an increase in odds of overall AEFI in patients aged <5 years (OR = 2.39; 95%CI: 1.10–5.19) compared to those aged >50 years. Both JE vaccines available in Australia are safe and well tolerated. Odds of AEFIs were age-dependent, young children should be carefully observed for AEFIs after vaccination.

Molecular Mechanism and Role of Japanese Encephalitis Virus Infection in Central Nervous System-Mediated Diseases

The Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is the most common cause of neurodegenerative disease in Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific region; approximately 1.15 billion people are at risk, and thousands suffer from permanent neurological disorders across Asian countries, with 10-15 thousand people dying each year. JEV crosses the blood-brain barrier (BBB) and forms a complex with receptors on the surface of neurons. GRP78, Src, TLR7, caveolin-1, and dopamine receptor D2 are involved in JEV binding and entry into the neurons, and these receptors also play a role in carcinogenic activity in cells. JEV binds to GRP78, a member of the HSP70 overexpressed on malignant cells to enter neurons, indicating a higher chance of JEV infection in cancer patients. However, JEV enters human brain microvascular endothelial cells via an endocytic pathway mediated by caveolae and the ezrin protein and also targets dopamine-rich areas for infection of the midbrain via altering dopamine levels. In addition, JEV complexed with CLEC5A receptor of macrophage cells is involved in the breakdown of the BBB and central nervous system (CNS) inflammation. CLEC5A-mediated infection is also responsible for the influx of cytokines into the CNS. In this review, we discuss the neuronal and macrophage surface receptors involved in neuronal death.

Neurological manifestations of scrub typhus infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical features and case fatality

BACKGROUND

Scrub typhus has become a leading cause of central nervous system (CNS) infection in endemic regions. As a treatable condition, prompt recognition is vital. However, few studies have focused on describing the symptomology and outcomes of neurological scrub typhus infection. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to report the clinical features and case fatality ratio (CFR) in patients with CNS scrub typhus infection.

METHODS

A search and analysis plan was published in PROSPERO [ID 328732]. A systematic search of PubMed and Scopus was performed and studies describing patients with CNS manifestations of proven scrub typhus infection were included. The outcomes studied were weighted pooled prevalence (WPP) of clinical features during illness and weighted CFR.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies with 1,221 (656 adults and 565 paediatric) patients were included. The most common clinical features in CNS scrub typhus were those consistent with non-specific acute encephalitis syndromes (AES), such as fever (WPP 100.0% [99.5%-100.0%, I2 = 47.8%]), altered sensorium (67.4% [54.9-78.8%, I2 = 93.3%]), headache (65.0% [51.5-77.6%, I2 = 95.1%]) and neck stiffness 56.6% (29.4-80.4%, I2 = 96.3%). Classical features of scrub typhus were infrequently identified; an eschar was found in only 20.8% (9.8%-34.3%, I2 = 95.4%) and lymphadenopathy in 24.1% (95% CI 11.8% - 38.9%, I2 = 87.8%). The pooled CFR (95% CI) was 3.6% (1.5%- 6.4%, I2 = 67.3%). Paediatric cohorts had a CFR of 6.1% (1.9-12.1%, I2 = 77%) whilst adult cohorts reported 2.6% (0.7-5.3%, I2 = 43%).

CONCLUSION

Our meta-analyses illustrate that 3.6% of patients with CNS manifestations of scrub typhus die. Clinicians should have a high index of suspicion for scrub typhus in patients presenting with AES in endemic regions and consider starting empiric treatment whilst awaiting results of investigations, even in the absence of classical signs such as an eschar or lymphadenopathy.

Modelling Japanese encephalitis virus transmission dynamics and human exposure in a Cambodian rural multi-host system

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a vector-borne zoonosis and the leading cause of human viral encephalitis in Asia. Its transmission cycle is usually described as involving wild birds as reservoirs and pigs as amplifying hosts. JE is endemic in Cambodia, where it circulates in areas with low pig densities (<70 pigs per km²), and could be maintained in a multi-host system composed of pigs, but also poultry as competent hosts, and dogs, cattle and humans as non-competent hosts. We used a mathematical model representing Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) transmission in a traditional Cambodian village that we calibrated with field data collected in 3 districts of Kandal province, Cambodia. First, R₀ calculations allowed us to assess the capacity of the epidemiological system to be invaded by JEV and sustain virus transmission in villages in the 3 districts, and we predicted human exposure at the epidemiological equilibrium, based on simulations. Changes in spatial density of livestock, in agricultural practices, and epizootics (e.g., African swine fever), can profoundly alter the composition of host communities, which could affect JEV transmission and its impact on human health. In a second step, we then used the model to analyse how host community composition affected R₀ and the predicted human exposure. Lastly, we evaluated the potential use of dog JE seroprevalence as an indicator of human exposure to JEV. In the modeled villages, the calculated R₀ ranged from 1.07 to 1.38. Once the equilibrium reached, predicted annual probability of human exposure ranged from 9% to 47%, and predicted average age at infection was low, between 2 and 11 years old, highlighting the risk of severe forms of JEV infection and the need to intensify child immunization. According to the model, increasing the proportion of competent hosts induced a decrease in age at infection. The simulations also showed that JEV could invade a multi-host system with no pigs, reinforcing the assumption of poultry acting as reservoirs. Finally, the annual human exposure probability appeared linearly correlated with dog seroprevalence, suggesting that in our specific study area, dog seroprevalence would be a good proxy for human exposure.

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is endemic in Cambodia and remains the most common cause of acute viral encephalitis, particularly in children and adolescents. The traditionally described cycle of JEV, involving wild birds as reservoirs, pigs as amplifying hosts and Culex mosquitoes as vectors is questioned, with increasing evidence of a more complex multi-host system involved in areas where densities of pigs are low. In Cambodia, the infection could be maintained in a multi-host system consisting of pigs and poultry as competent hosts, and dogs, cattle and humans as non-competent hosts. We defined a compartmental dynamic model of JEV transmission in a multi-host system representing a rural Cambodian village, to predict human exposure to JEV in the studied area, and to analyse how host community composition may affect human exposure and R₀ value. Our theoretical approach showed that variations of the composition of the multi-host system may have an impact on human exposure to JEV, and thus on the disease burden in humans, especially in young children. Besides children vaccination in JEV endemic areas, a proper evaluation of the impact on human health is needed to target prevention actions and reduce JEV burden in Cambodia.

The epidemiology and disease burden of children hospitalized for viral infections within the family Flaviviridae in China: A national cross-sectional study

Background

Viruses of the family Flaviviridae, including Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), dengue virus (DENV), yellow fever virus (YFV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV), are widely distributed worldwide. JEV, DENV and YFV belong to the genus Flavivirus, whereas HCV belongs to the genus Hepacivirus. Children’s symptoms are usually severe. As a result, rates of hospitalization due to infection with these viruses are high. The epidemiology and disease burden of hospitalized children have rarely been described in detail to date. The objective of this study was to report the general epidemiological characteristics, clinical phenotype, length of stay (LOS), burden of disease, and potential risk factors for hospitalized children infected with JEV, DENV, YFV, or HCV in Chinese pediatric hospitals.

Methodology

A cross-sectional study of epidemiology and disease burden of children hospitalized for Flaviviridae virus infections between December 2015 and December 2020 in China was performed. Face sheets of discharge medical records (FSMRs) were collected from 27 tertiary children’s hospitals in the Futang Research Center of Pediatric Development and aggregated into FUTang Update medical REcords (FUTURE). Information on sociodemographic variables, clinical phenotype, and LOS as well as economic burden was included in FSMRs and compared using appropriate statistical tests.

Findings

The study described 490 children aged 0–15 years hospitalized for infections with Flaviviridae viruses. Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases are the highest, accounting for 92.65% of the total hospitalization cases caused by Flaviviridae virus infection. The incidence of JE peaked from July to October with a profile of a high proportion of severe cases (68.06%) and low mortality (0.44%). Rural children had a significantly higher incidence than urban children (91.63%). Most hospitalized dengue cases were reported in 2019 when dengue outbreaks occurred in many provinces of China, although only 14 dengue cases were collected during the study period. Yellow fever (YF) is still an imported disease in China. The hospitalizations for children with hepatitis C (HC) were not high, and mild chronic HC was the main clinical phenotype of patients. Among the four viral infections, JE had the highest disease burden (LOS and expenditure) for hospitalized children.

Conclusion

First, the present study reveals that JE remains the most serious disease due to Flaviviridae virus infection and threatens children’s health in China. Many pediatric patients have severe illnesses, but their mortality rate is lower, suggesting that existing treatment is effective. Both JEV vaccination and infection control of rural children should represent a focus of study. Second, although the dual risks of indigenous epidemics and imports of DENV still exist, the prevalence of DENV in children is generally manageable. Third, YFV currently shows no evidence of an epidemic in China. Finally, the proportion of children with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is relatively large among hospitalized children diagnosed with HCV. Thus, early and effective intervention should be offered to children infected with HCV to ease the burden of CHC on public health.

We performed a general epidemiological and disease burden assessment of 490 hospitalized children infected with any virus from the family Flaviviridae [Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), dengue virus (DENV), yellow fever virus (YFV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV)] from December 2015 to December 2020 with confirmed clinical presentation and laboratory results. Our study found that hospitalization for Japanese encephalitis (JE) predominated in children who lived in rural areas, and the infection was rate was considerably higher in summer and autumn (July–October) compared with other months. In addition, children hospitalized with JE have the largest share of disease burden. However, the overall low rate of hospitalization and mortality of children shows that China’s JE prevention and control policies remain effective. However, the prevention, control and surveillance of JEV in rural areas should not be neglected. Dengue and yellow fever have not yet caused serious public health concerns among children in China, but the spatial and temporal distributions of viral infection must be assessed to be alert to the indigenous spread of imported cases. CHC is a refractory phenotype of HCV infection in children; thus, early screening and intervention are encouraged given the insidious appearance of symptoms in the early stages after HCV infection. These findings can help to understand the epidemic status of viruses classified in the family Flaviviridae in children and the disease burden of hospitalized children, which is conducive to precise prevention and control, optimization of the allocation of resources, and the formulation of more reasonable and effective policies.

Estimates of Japanese Encephalitis mortality and morbidity: A systematic review and modeling analysis

Background

Japanese Encephalitis (JE) is known for its high case fatality ratio (CFR) and long-term neurological sequelae. Over the years, efforts in JE treatment and control might change the JE fatality risk. However, previous estimates were from 10 years ago, using data from cases in the 10 years before this. Estimating JE disease severity is challenging because data come from countries with different JE surveillance systems, diagnostic methods, and study designs. Without precise and timely JE disease severity estimates, there is continued uncertainty about the JE disease burden and the effect of JE vaccination.

Methodology

We performed a systematic review to collate age-stratified JE fatality and morbidity data. We used a stepwise model selection with BIC as the selection criteria to identify JE CFR drivers. We used stacked regression, to predict country-specific JE CFR from 1961 to 2030. JE morbidity estimates were grouped from similar study designs to estimate the proportion of JE survivors with long-term neurological sequelae.

Principal findings

We included 82 and 50 peer-reviewed journal articles published as of March 06 2021 for JE fatality and morbidity with 22 articles in both analyses. Results suggested overall JE CFR estimates of 26% (95% CI 22, 30) in 1961–1979, 20% (95% CI 17, 24) in 1980–1999, 14% (95% CI 11, 17) in 2000–2018, and 14% (95% CI 11, 17) in 2019–2030. Holding other variables constant, we found that JE fatality risk decreased over time (OR: 0.965; 95% CI: 0.947–0.983). Younger JE cases had a slightly higher JE fatality risk (OR: 1.012; 95% CI: 1.003–1.021). The odds of JE fatality in countries with JE vaccination is 0.802 (90% CI: 0.653–0.994; 95% CI: 0.62–1.033) times lower than the odds in countries without JE vaccination. Ten percentage increase in the percentage of rural population to the total population was associated with 15.35% (95% CI: 7.71, 22.57) decrease in JE fatality odds. Ten percentage increase in population growth rate is associated with 3.71% (90% CI: 0.23, 7.18; 95% CI: -0.4, 8.15) increase in JE fatality odds. Adjusting for the effect of year, rural population percent, age of JE cases, and population growth rate, we estimated that there was a higher odds of JE fatality in India compared to China. (OR: 5.46, 95% CI: 3.61–8.31). Using the prediction model we found that, in 2000–2018, Brunei, Pakistan, and Timor-Leste were predicted to have the highest JE CFR of 20%. Bangladesh, Guam, Pakistan, Philippines, and Vietnam had projected JE CFR over 20% for after 2018, whereas the projected JE CFRs were below 10% in China, Indonesia, Cambodia, Myanmar, Malaysia, and Thailand. For disability, we estimated that 36% (min-max 0–85) JE patients recovered fully at hospital discharge. One year after hospital discharge, 46% (min-max 0%-97%) JE survivors were estimated to live normally but 49% (min-max 3% - 86%)till had neurological sequelae.

Conclusion

JE CFR estimates were lower than 20% after 2000. Our study provides an updated estimation of CFR and proportion of JE cases with long-term neurological sequelae that could help to refine cost-benefit assessment for JE control and elimination programs.

Japanese Encephalitis (JE) is known for its high case fatality ratio (CFR) and long-term neurological sequelae. Although JE fatality and morbidity risk might change as the characteristics of the population change with the strengthened surveillance scales, expanded immunization coverage, and healthcare improvements, there have not been any updates in the estimates for JE mortality and morbidity estimates for 10 years. In this paper, we made updated estimates of the JE CFR and the proportion of JE survivors with long-term neurological sequelae by performing a systematic review and developing statistical and machine learning models. We estimated JE CFR decreased over time, with estimates of 26% (95% CI 22, 30) in 1961–1979, 20% (95% CI 17, 24) in 1980–1999, 14% (95% CI 11, 17) in 2000–2018, and 14% (95% CI 11, 17) in 2019–2030. countries without JE vaccination, younger JE cases, higher population growth rate, and lower rural population percentage were associated with higher JE CFR. We estimated that 36% (min-max 0–85) JE patients recovered fully at hospital discharge. One year after hospital discharge, 46% (min-max 0%-97%) JE survivors were estimated to live normally but 49% (min-max 3% - 86%) JE patients still had neurological sequelae. The insights gained will be important in evaluating and updating current JE disease burden among all endemic areas and effectively channeling resources to most needed areas.

Acute neurologic emerging flaviviruses

The COVID-19 pandemic has shed light on the challenges we face as a global society in preventing and containing emerging and re-emerging pathogens. Multiple intersecting factors, including environmental changes, host immunological factors, and pathogen dynamics, are intimately connected to the emergence and re-emergence of communicable diseases. There is a large and expanding list of communicable diseases that can cause neurological damage, either through direct or indirect routes. Novel pathogens of neurotropic potential have been identified through advanced diagnostic techniques, including metagenomic next-generation sequencing, but there are also known pathogens which have expanded their geographic distribution to infect non-immune individuals. Factors including population growth, climate change, the increase in animal and human interface, and an increase in international travel and trade are contributing to the expansion of emerging and re-emerging pathogens. Challenges exist around antimicrobial misuse giving rise to antimicrobial-resistant infectious neurotropic organisms and increased susceptibility to infection related to the expanded use of immunomodulatory treatments. In this article, we will review key concepts around emerging and re-emerging pathogens and discuss factors associated with neurotropism and neuroinvasion. We highlight several neurotropic pathogens of interest, including West Nile virus (WNV), Zika Virus, Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV), and Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus (TBEV). We emphasize neuroinfectious diseases which impact the central nervous system (CNS) and focus on flaviviruses, a group of vector-borne pathogens that have expanded globally in recent years and have proven capable of widespread outbreak.