Reappearance of Risk of Schistosomiasis Transmission and the Response After 27 Years of Interrupted Transmission - Guangdong Province, China, 2019

Prediction of Oncomelania hupensis distribution in association with climate change using machine learning models

BACKGROUND

Oncomelania hupensis is the sole intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum. Its emergence and recurrence pose a constant challenge to the elimination of schistosomiasis in China. It is important to accurately predict the snail distribution for schistosomiasis prevention and control.

METHODS

Data describing the distribution of O. hupensis in 2016 was obtained from the Yunnan Institute of Endemic Disease Control and Prevention. Eight machine learning algorithms, including eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), generalized boosting model (GBM), neural network (NN), classification and regression trees (CART), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and generalized additive model (GAM), were employed to explore the impacts of climatic, geographical, and socioeconomic variables on the distribution of suitable areas for O. hupensis. Predictions of the distribution of suitable areas for O. hupensis were made for various periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s) under different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585).

RESULTS

The RF model exhibited the best performance (AUC: 0.991, sensitivity: 0.982, specificity: 0.995, kappa: 0.942) and the CART model performed the worst (AUC: 0.884, sensitivity: 0.922, specificity: 0.943, kappa: 0.829). Based on the RF model, the top six important variables were as follows: Bio15 (precipitation seasonality) (33.6%), average annual precipitation (25.2%), Bio2 (mean diurnal temperature range) (21.7%), Bio19 (precipitation of the coldest quarter) (14.5%), population density (13.5%), and night light index (11.1%). The results demonstrated that the overall suitable habitats for O. hupensis were predominantly distributed in the schistosomiasis-endemic areas located in northwestern Yunnan Province under the current climate situation and were predicted to expand north- and westward due to climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that the prediction of the current distribution of O. hupensis corresponded well with the actual records. Furthermore, our study provided compelling evidence that the geographical distribution of snails was projected to expand toward the north and west of Yunnan Province in the coming decades, indicating that the distribution of snails is driven by climate factors. Our findings will be of great significance for formulating effective strategies for snail control.

The Current Distribution of Oncomelania hupensis Snails in the People's Republic of China Based on a Nationwide Survey

Schistosomiasis is a helminth infection caused by the genus Schistosoma, which is still a threat in tropical and sub-tropical areas. In the China, schistosomiasis caused by Schistosoma japonicum is mainly endemic to the Yangtze River valley. The amphibious snail Oncomelania hupensis (O. hupensis) is the unique intermediate host of S. japonicum; hence, snail control is a crucial approach in the process of schistosomiasis transmission control and elimination. In 2016, a nationwide snail survey was conducted involving all snail habitats recorded since 1950 in all endemic counties of 12 provinces. A total of 53,254 existing snail habitats (ESHs) were identified, presenting three clusters in Sichuan Basin, Dongting Lake, and Poyang Lake. The overall habitat area was 5.24 billion m², of which 3.58 billion m² were inhabited by O. hupensis. The area inhabited by snails (AIS) in Dongting and Poyang Lakes accounted for 76.53% of the population in the country. Three typical landscape types (marshland and lakes, mountains and hills, and plain water networks) existed in endemic areas, and marshland and lakes had a predominant share (3.38 billion m²) of the AIS. Among the 12 endemic provinces, Hunan had a share of nearly 50% of AIS, whereas Guangdong had no ESH. Ditches, dryland, paddy fields, marshland, and ponds are common habitat types of the ESH. Although the AIS of the marshland type accounted for 87.22% of the population in the whole country, ditches were the most common type (35,025 or 65.77%) of habitat. Six categories of vegetation for ESHs were identified. A total of 39,139 habitats were covered with weeds, accounting for 55.26% of the coverage of the area. Multiple vegetation types of snail habitats appeared in the 11 provinces, but one or two of these were mainly dominant. Systematic sampling showed that the presence of living snails was 17.88% among the 13.5 million sampling frames. The occurrence varied significantly by landscape, environment, and vegetation type. The median density of living snails in habitats was 0.50 per frame (0.33 m × 0.33 m), and the highest density was 40.01 per frame. Furthermore, two main clusters with high snail densities and spatial correlations indicated by hotspot analysis were identified: one in Hunan and Hubei, the other in Sichuan. This national survey is the first full-scale census on the distribution of O. hupensis, which is significant, as transmission interruption and elimination are truly becoming the immediate goal of schistosomiasis control in China. The study discerns the detailed geographic distribution of O. hupensis with the hotspots of snail density in China. It is beneficial to understand the status of the snail population in order to finally formulate further national control planning.

Cross-watershed distribution pattern challenging the elimination of Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host of Schistosoma japonica, in Sichuan province, China

Background

Snail control is critical to schistosomiasis control efforts in China. However, re-emergence of Oncomelania hupensis is challenging the achievements of schistosomiasis control. The present study aimed to test whether the amphibious snails can spread across watersheds using a combination of population genetics and geographic statistics.

Methods

The digital maps and attributes of snail habitats were obtained from the national survey on O. hupensis. Snail sampling was performed in 45 counties of Sichuan Province. The cox1 gene of specimens was characterized by sequencing. Unique haplotypes were found for phylogenetic inference and mapped in a geographical information system (GIS). Barriers of gene flow were identified by Monmonier’s maximum difference algorithm. The watercourses and watersheds in the study area were determined based on a digital elevation model (DEM). Plain areas were defined by a threshold of slope. The slope of snail habitats was characterized and the nearest distance to watercourses was calculated using a GIS platform. Spatial dynamics of high-density distributions were observed by density analysis of snail habitats.

Results

A total of 422 cox1 sequences of O. hupensis specimens from 45 sampling sites were obtained and collapsed into 128 unique haplotypes or 10 clades. Higher haplotype diversity in the north of the study area was observed. Four barriers to gene flow, leading to five sub-regions, were found across the study area. Four sub-regions ran across major watersheds, while high-density distributions were confined within watersheds. The result indicated that snails were able to disperse across low-density areas. A total of 63.48% habitats or 43.29% accumulated infested areas were distributed in the plain areas where the overall slope was < 0.94°. Approximately 90% of snail habitats were closer to smaller watercourses. Historically, high-density areas were mainly located in the plains, but now more were distributed in hilly region.

Conclusions

Our study showed the cross-watershed distribution of Oncomelania snails at a large scale. Natural cross-watershed spread in plains and long-distance dispersal by humans and animals might be the main driver of the observed patterns. We recommend cross-watershed joint control strategies for snail and schistosomiasis control.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05496-0.