Worldwide burden attributable to diet high in red meat from 1990 to 2019

Global, regional, and national burden of diet high in processed meat from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019

Objective

The objective of this study is to explore the prevalence and attributable burden of diet high in processed meat (DHIPM) in global, regional, and national level due to the burden caused by unhealthy dietary pattern worldwide.

Design

Cross-sectional study.

Materials and design

All the data involved in this research were obtained from Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was used to estimate the prevalence, which was measured by summary exposure value (SEV) and attributable burden of DHIPM. The Spearman rank order correlation method was performed to measure the correlation between sociodemographic index (SDI) and the prevalence as well as attributable burden. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to demonstrate the temporal trends.

Results

Globally, there were 304.28 thousand deaths and 8556.88 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) caused by DHIPM in 2019 and increased by 34.63 and 68.69%, respectively. The prevalence had decreased slightly from 1990 to 2019, however increased in most regions and countries, especially in middle SDI regions, despite the implicitly high prevalence in high SDI regions. Countries with higher SDI values were facing higher prevalence and attributable burden of DHIPM while developing countries were observed with severer temporal trends. Compared with women, men had suffered from lower exposure level however graver attributable burden of DHIPM in the past three decades.

Conclusion

The progress of continuous urbanization allowed increasingly severe prevalence and attributable burden of DHIPM, thus the challenge to alleviate this trend was acute. Effective measures such as education on beneficial dietary pattern and supplement on healthy food were urgently required, especially in developing regions and countries.

Unacceptable use of substandard metrics in policy decisions which mandate large reductions in animal-source foods

Many recent very influential reports, including those from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Risk Factor Collaborators, the EAT-Lancet Commission on Food, Planet, Health, and the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, have recommended dramatic reductions or total exclusion of animal-source foods, particularly ruminant products (red meat and dairy), from the human diet. They strongly suggest that these dietary shifts will not only benefit planetary health but also human health. However, as detailed in this perspective, there are grounds for considerable concern in regard to the quality and transparency of the input data, the validity of the assumptions, and the appropriateness of the statistical modelling, used in the calculation of the global health estimates, which underpin the claimed human health benefits. The lessor bioavailability of protein and key micronutrients from plant-source foods versus animal-source foods was not adequately recognised nor addressed in any of these reports. Furthermore, assessments of bias and certainty were either limited or absent. Despite many of these errors and limitations being publically acknowledged by the GBD and the EAT-Lancet authors, no corrections have been applied to the published papers. As a consequence, these reports continue to erroneously influence food policy decisions and international dietary guidelines, such as the World Wildlife Fund's Livewell Diet, and the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations 2023.

Trends of ischemic heart disease mortality attributable to smoking in the five countries with the highest number of smokers during 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis

Introduction

Smoking increases the risk of various cardiovascular diseases, including ischemic heart disease (IHD). This study aimed to assess the impact of age, period, and cohort on long-term trends in IHD mortality in China, India, Indonesia, the United States, and Russia, the five countries with the highest number of smokers, from 1990 to 2019.

Material and methods

The data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019, and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was calculated. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess the magnitude and direction of trends in smoking-attributable mortality from IHD. Age-period-cohort (APC) studies were used to estimate net drift (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC)s), local drift (age-specific EAPCs), and independent trends in age, period, and cohort effects.

Results

The analysis revealed a significant downward trend in ASMRs attributable to IHD as a result of smoking in the United States, India, and Russia. Indonesia and China showed an upward trend. Age effects were increasing for both country and sex, with China showing the most significant increase in the older age group; period effects were decreasing in all countries except Indonesia, and cohort effects were increasing only in Indonesia and China.

Conclusions

From 1990 to 2019, mortality from IHD caused by smoking showed a downward trend in these five countries. However, the pattern of increased mortality from IHD in women caused by smoking warrants further study.