Using Classified and Unclassified Land Cover Data to Estimate the Footprint of Human Settlement

Scaling-up Child and Youth Mental Health Services: Assessing Coverage of a County-Wide Prevention and Early Intervention Initiative During One Fiscal Year

PURPOSE

In the U.S., the percentage of youth in need of evidence-based mental health practices (EBPs) who receive them (i.e., coverage rate) is low. We know little about what influences coverage rates. In 2010, the Los Angeles County Department of Mental Health (LACDMH) launched a reimbursement-driven implementation of multiple EBPs in youth mental health care. This study examines two questions: (1) What was the coverage rate of EBPs delivered three years following initial implementation? (2) What factors are associated with the coverage rates?

METHODS

To assess coverage rates of publicly insured youth, we used LACDMH administrative claims data from July 1, 2013 to June 30, 2014 and estimates of the size of the targeted eligible youth population from the 2014 American Community Survey (ACS). The unit of analysis was clinic service areas (n = 254). We used Geographic Information Systems and an OLS regression to assess community and clinic characteristics related to coverage.

RESULTS

The county coverage rate was estimated at 17%, much higher than national estimates. The proportion of ethnic minorities, individuals who are foreign-born, adults with a college degree within a geographic area were negatively associated with clinic service area coverage rates. Having more therapists who speak a language other than English, providing care outside of clinics, and higher proportion of households without a car were associated with higher coverage rates.

CONCLUSION

Heterogeneity in municipal mental health record type and availability makes it difficult to compare the LACDMH coverage rate with other efforts. However, the LACDMH initiative has higher coverage than published national rates. Having bilingual therapists and providing services outside the clinic was associated with higher coverage. Even with higher coverage, inequities persisted.

Projecting 1 km-grid population distributions from 2020 to 2100 globally under shared socioeconomic pathways

Spatially explicit population grid can play an important role in climate change, resource management, sustainable development and other fields. Several gridded datasets already exist, but global data, especially high-resolution data on future populations are largely lacking. Based on the WorldPop dataset, we present a global gridded population dataset covering 248 countries or areas at 30 arc-seconds (approximately 1 km) spatial resolution with 5-year intervals for the period 2020-2100 by implementing Random Forest (RF) algorithm. Our dataset is quantitatively consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' (SSPs) national population. The spatially explicit population dataset we predicted in this research is validated by comparing it with the WorldPop dataset both at the sub-national and grid level. 3569 provinces (almost all provinces on the globe) and more than 480 thousand grids are taken into verification, and the results show that our dataset can serve as an input for predictive research in various fields.

How accurate are WorldPop-Global-Unconstrained gridded population data at the cell-level?: A simulation analysis in urban Namibia

Disaggregated population counts are needed to calculate health, economic, and development indicators in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), especially in settings of rapid urbanisation. Censuses are often outdated and inaccurate in LMIC settings, and rarely disaggregated at fine geographic scale. Modelled gridded population datasets derived from census data have become widely used by development researchers and practitioners; however, accuracy in these datasets are evaluated at the spatial scale of model input data which is generally courser than the neighbourhood or cell-level scale of many applications. We simulate a realistic synthetic 2016 population in Khomas, Namibia, a majority urban region, and introduce several realistic levels of outdatedness (over 15 years) and inaccuracy in slum, non-slum, and rural areas. We aggregate the synthetic populations by census and administrative boundaries (to mimic census data), resulting in 32 gridded population datasets that are typical of LMIC settings using the WorldPop-Global-Unconstrained gridded population approach. We evaluate the cell-level accuracy of these gridded population datasets using the original synthetic population as a reference. In our simulation, we found large cell-level errors, particularly in slum cells. These were driven by the averaging of population densities in large areal units before model training. Age, accuracy, and aggregation of the input data also played a role in these errors. We suggest incorporating finer-scale training data into gridded population models generally, and WorldPop-Global-Unconstrained in particular (e.g., from routine household surveys or slum community population counts), and use of new building footprint datasets as a covariate to improve cell-level accuracy (as done in some new WorldPop-Global-Constrained datasets). It is important to measure accuracy of gridded population datasets at spatial scales more consistent with how the data are being applied, especially if they are to be used for monitoring key development indicators at neighbourhood scales within cities.

Dynamic World, Near real-time global 10 m land use land cover mapping

Unlike satellite images, which are typically acquired and processed in near-real-time, global land cover products have historically been produced on an annual basis, often with substantial lag times between image processing and dataset release. We developed a new automated approach for globally consistent, high resolution, near real-time (NRT) land use land cover (LULC) classification leveraging deep learning on 10 m Sentinel-2 imagery. We utilize a highly scalable cloud-based system to apply this approach and provide an open, continuous feed of LULC predictions in parallel with Sentinel-2 acquisitions. This first-of-its-kind NRT product, which we collectively refer to as Dynamic World, accommodates a variety of user needs ranging from extremely up-to-date LULC data to custom global composites representing user-specified date ranges. Furthermore, the continuous nature of the product’s outputs enables refinement, extension, and even redefinition of the LULC classification. In combination, these unique attributes enable unprecedented flexibility for a diverse community of users across a variety of disciplines.

Implications for Tracking SDG Indicator Metrics with Gridded Population Data

Achieving the seventeen United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires accurate, consistent, and accessible population data. Yet many low- and middle-income countries lack reliable or recent census data at the sufficiently fine spatial scales needed to monitor SDG progress. While the increasing abundance of Earth observation-derived gridded population products provides analysis-ready population estimates, end users lack clear use criteria to track SDGs indicators. In fact, recent comparisons of gridded population products identify wide variation across gridded population products. Here we present three case studies to illuminate how gridded population datasets compare in measuring and monitoring SDGs to advance the “fitness for use” guidance. Our focus is on SDG 11.5, which aims to reduce the number of people impacted by disasters. We use five gridded population datasets to measure and map hazard exposure for three case studies: the 2015 earthquake in Nepal; Cyclone Idai in Mozambique, Malawi, and Zimbabwe (MMZ) in 2019; and flash flood susceptibility in Ecuador. First, we map and quantify geographic patterns of agreement/disagreement across gridded population products for Nepal, MMZ, and Ecuador, including delineating urban and rural populations estimates. Second, we quantify the populations exposed to each hazard. Across hazards and geographic contexts, there were marked differences in population estimates across the gridded population datasets. As such, it is key that researchers, practitioners, and end users utilize multiple gridded population datasets—an ensemble approach—to capture uncertainty and/or provide range estimates when using gridded population products to track SDG indicators. To this end, we made available code and globally comprehensive datasets that allows for the intercomparison of gridded population products.

Evaluating the Accuracy of Gridded Population Estimates in Slums: A Case Study in Nigeria and Kenya

Low- and middle-income country cities face unprecedented urbanization and growth in slums. Gridded population data (e.g., ~100 × 100 m) derived from demographic and spatial data are a promising source of population estimates, but face limitations in slums due to the dynamic nature of this population as well as modelling assumptions. In this study, we compared field-referenced boundaries and population counts from Slum Dwellers International in Lagos (Nigeria), Port Harcourt (Nigeria), and Nairobi (Kenya) with nine gridded population datasets to assess their statistical accuracy in slums. We found that all gridded population estimates vastly underestimated population in slums (RMSE: 4958 to 14,422, Bias: −2853 to −7638), with the most accurate dataset (HRSL) estimating just 39 per cent of slum residents. Using a modelled map of all slums in Lagos to compare gridded population datasets in terms of SDG 11.1.1 (percent of population living in deprived areas), all gridded population datasets estimated this indicator at just 1–3 per cent compared to 56 per cent using UN-Habitat’s approach. We outline steps that might improve that accuracy of each gridded population dataset in deprived urban areas. While gridded population estimates are not yet sufficiently accurate to estimate SDG 11.1.1, we are optimistic that some could be used in the future following updates to their modelling approaches.

Gridded population survey sampling: a systematic scoping review of the field and strategic research agenda

INTRODUCTION

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), household survey data are a main source of information for planning, evaluation, and decision-making. Standard surveys are based on censuses, however, for many LMICs it has been more than 10 years since their last census and they face high urban growth rates. Over the last decade, survey designers have begun to use modelled gridded population estimates as sample frames. We summarize the state of the emerging field of gridded population survey sampling, focussing on LMICs.

METHODS

We performed a systematic scoping review in Scopus of specific gridded population datasets and "population" or "household" "survey" reports, and solicited additional published and unpublished sources from colleagues.

RESULTS

We identified 43 national and sub-national gridded population-based household surveys implemented across 29 LMICs. Gridded population surveys used automated and manual approaches to derive clusters from WorldPop and LandScan gridded population estimates. After sampling, some survey teams interviewed all households in each cluster or segment, and others sampled households from larger clusters. Tools to select gridded population survey clusters include the GridSample R package, Geo-sampling tool, and GridSample.org. In the field, gridded population surveys generally relied on geographically accurate maps based on satellite imagery or OpenStreetMap, and a tablet or GPS technology for navigation.

CONCLUSIONS

For gridded population survey sampling to be adopted more widely, several strategic questions need answering regarding cell-level accuracy and uncertainty of gridded population estimates, the methods used to group/split cells into sample frame units, design effects of new sample designs, and feasibility of tools and methods to implement surveys across diverse settings.

Recommendations for IUCN Red List Conservation Status of the “Dryophytes immaculatus Group” in North East Asia

Threat assessment is important to prioritize species conservation projects and planning. The taxonomic resolution regarding the status of the “Dryophytes immaculatus group” and the description of a new species in the Republic of Korea resulted in a shift in ranges and population sizes. Thus, reviewing the IUCN Red List status of the three species from the group: D. immaculatus, D. suweonensis and D. flaviventris and recommending an update is needed. While the three species have similar ecological requirements and are distributed around the Yellow Sea, they are under contrasting anthropological pressure and threats. Here, based on the literature available, I have applied all IUCN Red List criterion and tested the fit of each species in each criteria to recommend listing under the appropriate threat level. This resulted in the recommendation of the following categories: Near Threatened for D. immaculatus, Endangered following the criteria C2a(i)b for D. suweonensis and Critically Endangered following the criteria E for D. flaviventris. All three species are declining, mostly because of landscape changes as a result of human activities, but the differences in range, population dynamics and already extirpated subpopulations result in different threat levels for each species. Dryophytes flaviventris is under the highest threat category mostly because of its limited range segregated into two subpopulations; and several known extirpated subpopulations. Immediate actions for the conservation of this species are required. Dryophytes suweonensis is present in both the Republic of Korea and the Democratic Republic of Korea (DPR Korea) and is under lower ecological pressure in DPR Korea. Dryophytes immaculatus is present in the People’s Republic of China, over a very large range despite a marked decline. I recommend joint efforts for the conservation of these species.

Combining expert and crowd-sourced training data to map urban form and functions for the continental US

Although continental urban areas are relatively small, they are major drivers of environmental change at local, regional and global scales. Moreover, they are especially vulnerable to these changes owing to the concentration of population and their exposure to a range of hydro-meteorological hazards, emphasizing the need for spatially detailed information on urbanized landscapes. These data need to be consistent in content and scale and provide a holistic description of urban layouts to address different user needs. Here, we map the continental United States into Local Climate Zone (LCZ) types at a 100 m spatial resolution using expert and crowd-sourced information. There are 10 urban LCZ types, each associated with a set of relevant variables such that the map represents a valuable database of urban properties. These data are benchmarked against continental-wide existing and novel geographic databases on urban form. We anticipate the dataset provided here will be useful for researchers and practitioners to assess how the configuration, size, and shape of cities impact the important human and environmental outcomes.