Evaluating influenza disease burden during the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 influenza seasons in Mongolia

Impact of air pollutants on influenza-like illness outpatient visits under COVID-19 pandemic in the subcenter of Beijing, China

This study aimed to explore the association between air pollutants and outpatient visits for influenza-like illnesses (ILI) under the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) stage in the subcenter of Beijing. The data on ILI in the subcenter of Beijing from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2020 were obtained from the Beijing Influenza Surveillance Network. A generalized additive Poisson model was applied to examine the associations between the concentrations of air pollutants and daily outpatient visits for ILI when controlling meteorological factors and temporal trend. A total of 171 943 ILI patients were included. In the pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) stage, an increased risk of ILI outpatient visits was associated to a high air quality index (AQI) and the high concentrations of particulate matter less than 2.5 (PM_2.5 ), particulate matter 10 (PM₁₀ ), sulphur dioxide (SO₂ ), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂ ), and carbon monoxide (CO), and a low concentration of ozone (O₃ ) on lag0 day and lag1 day, while a higher increased risk of ILI outpatient visits was observed by the air pollutants in the COVID-19 stage on lag0 day. Except for PM₁₀ , the concentrations of other air pollutants on lag1 day were not significantly associated with an increased risk of ILI outpatient visits during the COVID-19 stage. The findings that air pollutants had enhanced immediate effects and diminished lag-effects on the risk of ILI outpatient visits during the COVID-19 pandemic, which is important for the development of public health and environmental governance strategies.

Influenza epidemiology and burden of disease in Mongolia, 2013-2014 to 2017-2018

Background

Mongolia is a vast, sparsely populated country in central Asia. Its harsh climate and nomadic lifestyle make the population vulnerable to acute respiratory infections, particularly influenza. Evidence on the morbidity, mortality and socioeconomic impact of influenza in Mongolia is scarce; however, routine surveillance for influenza-like illness (ILI), severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) and laboratory-detected influenza is conducted. This paper describes the epidemiology of influenza and the estimated burden of influenza-associated illness in Mongolia in the five influenza seasons between 2013–2014 and 2017–2018.

Methods

Demographic and laboratory data from 152 sentinel surveillance sites on all patients who met the case definitions of ILI and SARI between October 2013 and May 2018 were extracted and analysed as described in A Manual for Estimating Disease Burden Associated with Seasonal Influenza.

Results

The estimated annual influenza-associated ILI and SARI rates, presented as ranges, were 1279–2798 and 81–666 cases per 100 000 population, respectively. Children aged < 5 years accounted for 67% of all ILI cases and 79% of all SARI cases. The annual specimen positivity for influenza was highest (11–30% for ILI and 8–31% for SARI) for children aged 5– < 15 years and children < 2 years old, respectively. The annual mortality rate due to pneumonia and SARI was highest among children aged < 2 years (15.8–54.0 per 100 000 population). Although the incidence of influenza-associated ILI and SARI was lowest for people aged ³65 years, the mortality rate due to pneumonia and SARI (1.2–5.1 per 100 000) was higher than that for those aged 15–64 years.

Conclusion

The estimated influenza-associated ILI and SARI incidence rates are high in Mongolia, and children, especially those aged < 5 years, have the highest influenza-associated burden in Mongolia. These findings provide evidence for decision-makers in Mongolia to consider targeted influenza vaccination, particularly for children.

Hospitalizations for Influenza-Associated Severe Acute Respiratory Infection, Beijing, China, 2014-2016

We analyzed surveillance data for 2 sentinel hospitals to estimate the influenza-associated severe acute respiratory infection hospitalization rate in Beijing, China. The rate was 39 and 37 per 100,000 persons during the 2014–15 and 2015–16 influenza seasons, respectively. Rates were highest for children <5 years of age.

Rapid Influenza Testing in an Austere Setting, Mongolia

In 2015–2017, we helped rural Mongolian clinicians with poor infrastructure adopt rapid influenza diagnostic tests (RIDTs). In their hands, the Quidel Sofia Influenza A Test was both sensitive (75%) and specific (100%). If made widely available, such RIDTs would have the potential to markedly reduce influenza morbidity and mortality in Mongolia.

Burden of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Pregnant Women and Infants Under 6 Months in Mongolia: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Pregnant women and infants under 6 months are at risk of influenza-related complications. Limited information exists on their community burden of respiratory viruses.

Methods and Findings

This prospective, observational open cohort study was conducted in Baganuur district, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia during 2013/14 and 2014/15 influenza seasons. Influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (sARI) were identified by follow-up calls twice a week. For those identified, influenza and respiratory syncytical virus (RSV) were tested by point-of-care test kits. We calculated overall and stratified (by trimester or age group) incidence rates (IR) and used Cox proportional hazard regression for risk factor analyses. Among 1260 unvaccinated pregnant women enrolled, overall IRs for ILI, sARI and influenza A were 11.8 (95% confidence interval (C.I):11.2–12.4), 0.1 (95%C.I:0.0–0.4), and 1.7 (95%C.I:1.5–1.9) per 1,000person-days, respectively. One sARI case was influenza A positive. IRs and adjusted hazard ratios (Adj.HR) for ILI and influenza A were lowest in the third trimester. Those with co-morbidity were 1.4 times more likely to develop ILI [Adj.HR:1.4 (95%C.I:1.1–1.9)]. Among 1304 infants enrolled, overall ILI and sARI IRs were 15.2 (95%C.I:14.5–15.8) and 20.5 (95%C.I:19.7–21.3) per 1,000person-days, respectively. From the tested ILI (77.6%) and sARI (30.6%) cases, the overall positivity rates were 6.3% (influenza A), 1.1% (influenza B) and 9.3% (RSV). Positivity rates of influenza A and RSV tend to increase with age. sARI cases were 1.4 times more likely to be male [Adj.HR:1.4 (95%C.I:1.1–1.8)]. Among all influenza A and RSV positive infants, 11.8% and 68.0% were respectively identified among sARI hospitalized cases.

Conclusion

We observed low overall influenza A burden in both groups, though underestimation was likely due to point-of-care tests used. For infants, RSV burden was more significant than influenza A. These findings would be useful for establishing control strategies for both viruses in Mongolia.

Epidemiology and impact of influenza in Mongolia, 2007-2012

Background

Mongolia's Health Service began to conduct surveillance for influenza in the 1970s. This surveillance has become more comprehensive over time and now includes 155 sentinel sites in Mongolia. In this study, we analyzed the epidemiological characteristics and impact of influenza using data from influenza surveillance in Mongolia.

Materials and methods

The data were collected by the National Influenza Center, Mongolia (NIC). Incidence rates of influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infections (sARI) were calculated as the proportion of the number of ILI and sARI cases to the total population in the studied areas. Nasopharyngeal samples were collected and tested using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction [(rt)-RT-PCR]. Selected samples negative for influenza were tested for other respiratory pathogens by multiplex rt-RT-PCR.

Results

Averages of 14·0 ILI and 0·8 sARI episodes per 100 population per year were observed during the five influenza seasons. The highest incidences of influenza associated with ILI and sARI were observed among children 0–4 years old. The number of ILI cases showed a clear seasonality, generally peaking between December and February. In contrast, sARI incidence peaked twice during each season. Influenza B was most prevalent during 2007–2008 and 2011–2012, influenza A (H3N2) during 2010–2011, seasonal A (H1N1) during 2008–2009, and A (H1N1) pdm09 during 2009–2010.

Conclusions

Additional data on the epidemiology and impact of influenza including socioeconomic impact and vaccine effectiveness are required to develop a national influenza control policy, including a vaccination strategy. Our results provide useful data for developing such a policy.

Analysis of fatal outcomes from influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Mongolia

INTRODUCTION

While influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 usually causes mild illness in the majority of people, there have been reports of severe cases and deaths. As there is no documented evidence on fatal outcomes from influenza in Mongolia previously, we aimed to describe the epidemiology of fatal influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases to provide recommendations to assist the national influenza prevention and control strategy.

METHODS

We selected influenza A(H1N1)pdm09-confirmed deaths in hospitals between 12 October 2009 and 31 January 2010 in Mongolia from the national influenza surveillance system. The mortality rate and case fatality rate (CFR) of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09-hospitalized deaths were calculated. Using country prevalence of pregnancy and chronic diseases, we calculated the relative risk of death from influenza A(H1N1)pdm09.

RESULTS

There were 29 deaths with a mortality rate of 1.0 per 100 000 population during the study period, which was highest in children under five and the middle-aged population. Crude CFR was 2.2%. Of all fatal cases, 62% had at least one underlying condition. Most (62%) were provided antivirals, although none received these within 48 hours of symptom onset. Prevalence for pregnancy, cardiovascular and chronic liver diseases was five to 50 times higher in fatal cases compared to country prevalence.

DISCUSSION

Mortality and crude CFR in our study was higher than in other studies. However, due to the diagnostic policy change during the epidemic, this estimate is likely to have overestimated actual case fatalities. Pregnancy, cardiovascular and chronic liver diseases were suggestive risk factors for death from influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Strengthening hospital-based influenza surveillance is important in predicting severity of an epidemic and responding to influenza epidemics in a timely and appropriate manner.

Likely effectiveness of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating influenza virus transmission in Mongolia

OBJECTIVE

To assess the likely benefit of the interventions under consideration for use in Mongolia during future influenza pandemics.

METHODS

A stochastic, compartmental patch model of susceptibility, exposure, infection and recovery was constructed to capture the key effects of several interventions--travel restrictions, school closure, generalized social distancing, quarantining of close contacts, treatment of cases with antivirals and prophylaxis of contacts--on the dynamics of influenza epidemics. The likely benefit and optimal timing and duration of each of these interventions were assessed using Latin-hypercube sampling techniques, averaging across many possible transmission and social mixing parameters.

FINDINGS

Timely interventions could substantially alter the time-course and reduce the severity of pandemic influenza in Mongolia. In a moderate pandemic scenario, early social distancing measures decreased the mean attack rate from around 10% to 7-8%. Similarly, in a severe pandemic scenario such measures cut the mean attack rate from approximately 23% to 21%. In both moderate and severe pandemic scenarios, a suite of non-pharmaceutical interventions proved as effective as the targeted use of antivirals. Targeted antiviral campaigns generally appeared more effective in severe pandemic scenarios than in moderate pandemic scenarios.

CONCLUSION

A mathematical model of pandemic influenza transmission in Mongolia indicated that, to be successful, interventions to prevent transmission must be triggered when the first cases are detected in border regions. If social distancing measures are introduced at this stage and implemented over several weeks, they may have a notable mitigating impact. In low-income regions such as Mongolia, social distancing may be more effective than the large-scale use of antivirals.

Influenza transmission in a community during a seasonal influenza A(H3N2) outbreak (2010-2011) in Mongolia: a community-based prospective cohort study

Background

Knowledge of how influenza viruses spread in a community is important for planning and implementation of effective interventions, including social distancing measures. Households and schools are implicated as the major sites for influenza virus transmission. However, the overall picture of community transmission is not well defined during actual outbreaks. We conducted a community-based prospective cohort study to describe the transmission characteristics of influenza in Mongolia.

Methods and Findings

A total of 5,655 residents in 1,343 households were included in this cohort study. An active search for cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) was performed between October 2010 and April 2011. Data collected during a community outbreak of influenza A(H3N2) were analyzed. Total 282 ILI cases occurred during this period, and 73% of the subjects were aged <15 years. The highest attack rate (20.4%) was in those aged 1–4 years, whereas the attack rate in those aged 5–9 years was 10.8%. Fifty-one secondary cases occurred among 900 household contacts from 43 households (43 index cases), giving an overall crude household secondary attack rate (SAR) of 5.7%. SAR was significantly higher in younger household contacts (relative risk for those aged <1 year: 9.90, 1–4 years: 5.59, and 5–9 years: 6.43). We analyzed the transmission patterns among households and a community and repeated transmissions were detected between households, preschools, and schools. Children aged 1–4 years played an important role in influenza transmission in households and in the community at large. Working-age adults were also a source of influenza in households, whereas elderly cases (aged ≥65 years) had no link with household transmission.

Conclusions

Repeated transmissions between households, preschools, and schools were observed during an influenza A(H3N2) outbreak period in Mongolia, where subjects aged 1–4 years played an important role in influenza transmission.

Cumulative incidence of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 by a community-based serological cohort study in Selenghe Province, Mongolia

BACKGROUND

Large community outbreaks of pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 occurred between October and December 2009 in Mongolia. A serological study was conducted among the general population by testing paired sera collected before and after the first wave of pandemic in Selenghe province, Mongolia. None of the study participants had been vaccinated for pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 before the second samples were collected.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to estimate cumulative incidence of pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 in different age-groups of Selenghe province residents.

METHODS

After informed consent was obtained from apparently healthy volunteers, the paired sera and background information were collected. Antibody titers were measured using hemagglutinin inhibition (HI) and microneutralization (MN) assays for A/California/07/2009pdm. A fourfold rise in antibody titers was regarded as the evidence of infection.

RESULTS

The overall cumulative incidences in the study group for all ages were 28.8% (76/264) by HI, 35.2% (93/264) by MN, and 25.0% (66/264) by both HI and MN. Cumulative incidences of infection varied among age-groups, with children aged 2-4 and 5-9 years having high cumulative incidence of infection. Overall cumulative incidences of infection in the whole population were estimated to be 23.0% (4946/21460) by HI, 30.2% (6473/21460) by MN, and 18.8% (4036/21460) by both HI and MN.

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicates that about one-fourth of the total population in Selenghe province was infected with pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 virus during the first wave of the pandemic.