Challenges to the Application of Spatially Explicit Stochastic Simulation Models for Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control in Endemic Settings: A Systematic Review

Simulation modeling has become common for estimating the spread of highly contagious animal diseases. Several models have been developed to mimic the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in specific regions or countries, conduct risk assessment, analyze outbreaks using historical data or hypothetical scenarios, assist in policy decisions during epidemics, formulate preparedness plans, and evaluate economic impacts. Majority of the available FMD simulation models were designed for and applied in disease-free countries, while there has been limited use of such models in FMD endemic countries. This paper's objective was to report the findings from a study conducted to review the existing published original research literature on spatially explicit stochastic simulation (SESS) models of FMD spread, focusing on assessing these models for their potential use in endemic settings. The goal was to identify the specific components of endemic FMD needed to adapt these SESS models for their potential application in FMD endemic settings. This systematic review followed the PRISMA guidelines, and three databases were searched, which resulted in 1176 citations. Eighty citations finally met the inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis, identifying nine unique SESS models. These SESS models were assessed for their potential application in endemic settings. The assessed SESS models can be adapted for use in FMD endemic countries by modifying the underlying code to include multiple cocirculating serotypes, routine prophylactic vaccination (RPV), and livestock population dynamics to more realistically mimic the endemic characteristics of FMD. The application of SESS models in endemic settings will help evaluate strategies for FMD control, which will improve livestock health, provide economic gains for producers, help alleviate poverty and hunger, and will complement efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

Genetic stability of foot-and-mouth disease virus during long-term infections in natural hosts

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a severe infection caused by a picornavirus that affects livestock and wildlife. Persistence in ruminants is a well-documented feature of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) pathogenesis and a major concern for disease control. Persistently infected animals harbor virus for extended periods, providing a unique opportunity to study within-host virus evolution. This study investigated the genetic dynamics of FMDV during persistent infections of naturally infected Asian buffalo. Using next-generation sequencing (NGS) we obtained 21 near complete FMDV genome sequences from 12 sub-clinically infected buffalo over a period of one year. Four animals yielded only one virus isolate and one yielded two isolates of different serotype suggesting a serial infection. Seven persistently infected animals yielded more than one virus of the same serotype showing a long-term intra-host viral genetic divergence at the consensus level of less than 2.5%. Quasi-species analysis showed few nucleotide variants and non-synonymous substitutions of progeny virus despite intra-host persistence of up to 152 days. Phylogenetic analyses of serotype Asia-1 VP1 sequences clustered all viruses from persistent animals with Group VII viruses circulating in Pakistan in 2011, but distinct from those circulating on 2008–2009. Furthermore, signature amino acid (aa) substitutions were found in the antigenically relevant VP1 of persistent viruses compared with viruses from 2008–2009. Intra-host purifying selective pressure was observed, with few codons in structural proteins undergoing positive selection. However, FMD persistent viruses did not show a clear pattern of antigenic selection. Our findings provide insight into the evolutionary dynamics of FMDV populations within naturally occurring subclinical and persistent infections that may have implications to vaccination strategies in the region.