Weight Change and Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases: The Japan Collaborative Cohort Study

Relationships of Weight Change from 20 Years of Age with the Risks of All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease

AIMS

Weight changes from a young age are known to be associated with poor life outcomes in the general population. However, little is known about the association between weight change from a young age and life expectancy in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD).

METHODS

Data of 2,806 nondialysis CKD patients who participated in the Fukuoka Kidney Disease Registry (FKR) Study, a multicenter observational study, were analyzed. The primary outcome was all-cause death, whereas the secondary outcome was cardiovascular mortality. The covariate of interest was weight change, defined as the difference between body weight at study enrollment and at 20 years old. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate the risks of mortality for participants with weight changes of ≥ 5 or ＜5 kg compared with those with stable weights.

RESULTS

During the 5-year observation period, 243 participants died from all causes and 62 from cardiovascular disease. The risk of all-cause mortality in the weight-loss group was significantly higher than that in the stable-weight group (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio, 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.52-2.93). Conversely, the risk of cardiovascular mortality in the weight-loss group was significantly higher than that in the stable-weight group (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.32-4.64). However, no significant association was observed between weight gain and the risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities.

CONCLUSION

Weight loss from 20 years of age was found to be associated with higher risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities in patients with CKD.

Associations of Recreational and Nonrecreational Physical Activity and Body Weight Change on Cardiovascular Disease Mortality During the Obesogenic Transition in the United States: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Follow-up Study

BACKGROUND

To investigate cardiovascular disease mortality associated with longitudinal changes in body weight, and recreational and nonrecreational physical activity during the obesogenic transition in the United States since the 1970s.

METHODS

Data were analyzed from 4921 individuals aged 25-74 years who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 1971 and 1979 and follow-up studies to 1992. Mortality was confirmed by searching the National Death Index or proxy interview; clinical data were collected in person. Changes in self-reported recreational and nonrecreational physical activity categories over time were coded as stable, increase, or decrease. Competing risks regression was used to determine hazard ratios adjusted for covariates. A logit model in a generalization method was used to explore mediation effects of change in body weight.

RESULTS

Compared with the "moderate-vigorous stable" group (reference), individuals who remained inactive ("inactive stable") or reduced their participation in physical activity ("active to inactive") experienced the highest mortality, with a 50% to 176% and 22% to 222% relative increased hazard ratios for nonrecreational and recreational physical activity, respectively, across all models adjusted for covariates. This corresponded to significant loss of life (up to 3 y; all P < .05). Individuals who became active ("inactive to active") were not at increased risk. We found weak (but nonstatistically significant) evidence of mediation effects of body weight change on mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Longitudinal changes in moderate-vigorous recreational and nonrecreational physical activity were important predictors of cardiovascular disease mortality during the obesogenic transition period in the United States and were mostly unexplained by changes in body weight.

Associations of Change in Body Size With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Among Healthy Older Adults

Importance

The association between weight change and subsequent cause-specific mortality among older adults is not well described. The significance of changes in waist circumference (WC) has also not been compared with weight change for this purpose.

Objective

To examine the associations of changes in body weight and WC with all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study is a post hoc analysis of data from the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized clinical trial, which recruited participants between March 1, 2010, and December 31, 2014. The study included community-based older adults (16 703 Australian participants aged ≥70 years and 2411 US participants aged ≥65 years) without evident cardiovascular disease (CVD), dementia, physical disability, or life-limiting chronic illness. Data analysis was performed from April to September 2022.

Exposures

Body weight and WC were measured at baseline and at annual visit 2. Analysis models were adjusted for baseline body mass index because height and weight were measured at baseline, allowing for calculation of body mass index and other variables. Both body weight and WC changes were categorized as change within 5% (stable), decrease by 5% to 10%, decrease by more than 10%, increase by 5% to 10%, and increase by more than 10%.

Main Outcomes and Measures

All-cause, cancer-specific, CVD-specific, and noncancer non-CVD-specific mortality. Mortality events were adjudicated by an expert review panel. Cox proportional hazards regression and competing risk analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs.

Results

Among 16 523 participants (mean [SD] age, 75.0 [4.3] years; 9193 women [55.6%]), 1256 deaths were observed over a mean (SD) of 4.4 (1.7) years. Compared with men with stable weight, those with a 5% to 10% weight loss had a 33% higher (HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.07-1.66) risk of all-cause mortality, and those with more than a 10% decrease in body weight had a 289% higher (HR, 3.89; 95% CI, 2.93-5.18) risk. Compared with women with stable weight, those with a 5% to 10% weight loss had a 26% higher (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.00-1.60) risk of all-cause mortality, and those with more than a 10% decrease in body weight had a 114% higher (HR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.58-2.91) risk. Weight loss was associated with a higher cancer-specific mortality (>10% decrease among men: HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 2.26-5.40; 5%-10% decrease among women: HR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.46-2.04; >10% decrease among women: HR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.82-4.26), CVD-specific mortality (>10% decrease among men: HR, 3.14; 95% CI, 1.63-6.04; >10% decrease among women: HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.05-3.51), and noncancer non-CVD-specific mortality (>10% decrease among men: HR, 4.98; 95% CI, 3.14-7.91). A decrease in WC was also associated with mortality.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study of healthy older adults suggests that weight loss was associated with an increase in all-cause and cause-specific mortality, including an increased risk of cancer, CVD, and other life-limiting conditions. Physicians should be aware of the significance of weight loss, especially among older men.

Two-year changes in body composition and future cardiovascular events: a longitudinal community-based study

BACKGROUND

The risk of cardiovascular diseases has rapidly increased among middle-aged and elderly. However, little is known about the relationship of body composition changes with the risk of cardiovascular events among this population in China. We explored the associations of 2-year changes in fat percentage (fat%) and fat-free mass percentage (FFM%) with subsequent cardiovascular events in a middle-aged and elderly community-based cohort.

METHODS

This study included 1048 participants (456 men [43.51%], aged 50-80 years) without overt cardiovascular disease, who underwent two examinations during 2013-2014 and 2015-2016. All participants were followed up until 2022 for cardiovascular events. A bioelectrical impedance analyzer was used to calculate fat% and FFM% change.

RESULTS

At baseline, the median body mass index (BMI), fat%, and FFM% were 23.9 (22.1-25.9) kg/m², 27.2 (20.8-33.6)%, and 72.8 (66.4-79.2)%, respectively. Two-year changes in fat% and FFM% were 0.31 (- 5.53 to 6.87)% and - 0.12 (- 2.36 to 2.06)%. During an average follow-up of 5.5 years, 86 cardiovascular events (8.21%) occurred. Cox regression models showed that hazard ratios (HRs) of every 2% change in fat% and FFM% for cardiovascular events were 1.04 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.07) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.74-0.95), respectively. Compared with participants with stable fat% (-2% ≤ ⊿fat% < 2%), those with fat% gain ≥ 2% had an increased risk of cardiovascular events (HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.08-3.97). FFM% loss > 8% was associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular events (HR 3.83, 95% CI 1.29-11.4).

CONCLUSIONS

In a middle-aged and elderly community-based Chinese population, fat% gain or FFM% loss was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events.

Early-Adulthood Weight Change and Later Physical Activity in Relation to Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality: NHANES 1999-2014

Limited evidence investigated the combined influence of early-adulthood weight change and later physical activity on the risk of cardiovascular (CVD) and all-cause mortality. The aim of this study is to explore the associations of early-adulthood weight change and later physical activity with CVD and all-cause mortality. This is a cohort study of 23,193 US adults aged 40 to 85 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999 to 2014. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of CVD and all-cause mortality associated with early-adulthood weight change and later physical activity. During a median follow-up of 9.2 years, there were 533 and 2734 cases of CVD and all-cause deaths. Compared with being physically inactive, the HRs of the CVD mortality of being physically active were 0.44 (0.26 to 0.73), 0.58 (0.19 to 1.82), 0.38 (0.17 to 0.86) and 0.46 (0.21 to 1.02) among individuals with stable normal, stable obese, non-obese to obese and maximum overweight early-adulthood weight change patterns. Using stable normal patterns that were physically active later as the reference, other early-adulthood weight change patterns did not show a significantly higher risk of CVD mortality when participants were physically active in later life; later physically inactive participants had a significantly increased risk of CVD mortality, with HRs of 2.17 (1.30 to 3.63), 5.32 (2.51 to 11.28), 2.59 (1.29 to 5.18) and 2.63 (1.32 to 5.26) in the stable normal, stable obese, non-obese to obese and maximum overweight groups, respectively. Similar results can be seen in the analyses for all-cause mortality. Our findings suggest that inadequate physical activity worsens the negative impact of unhealthy early-adulthood weight change patterns, which is worthy of being noted in the improvement of public health.

The Lifelong Health Support 10: a Japanese prescription for a long and healthy life

Background

Although the age-adjusted incidence and mortality of cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been decreasing steadily in Japan, both diseases remain major contributors to morbidity and mortality along with the aging society. Herein, we aim to provide a prescription of 10 health tips for long and healthy life named the “Lifelong Health Support 10 (LHS10).”

Method

The LHS10 was developed by the preventive medicine specialists at the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center in Suita, where it has been used for health guidance to prevent CVD, cancer, and cognitive decline in addition to their major risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. It consisted of the lifestyle modification recommendations of the 2014 Japanese Society of Hypertension guidelines and the 2017 Japan Atherosclerosis Society Guidelines for preventing atherosclerotic CVD. Further, it came in line with other international lifestyle modification guidelines. In this narrative review, we summarized the results of several Japanese epidemiological studies investigating the association between the LHS10 items and the risk of cancer, CVD, and other chronic diseases including dementia, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease.

Results

The LHS10 included avoiding smoking and secondhand smoke exposure, engaging in physical activity, refraining from excessive alcohol drinking, reducing fried foods and sugary soft drinks, cutting salt in food, consuming more vegetables, fruits, fish, soy foods, and fibers, and maintaining proper body weight. All items of the LHS10 were shown to reduce the risk of cancer, CVD, and other chronic diseases.

Conclusions

The LHS10 can be a helpful tool for health guidance.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1265/ehpm.22-00085.

Impact of Body Mass Index on Obesity-Related Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality; The Japan Collaborative Cohort Study

AIM

We aimed to examine the association of obesity-related cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) with body mass index (BMI) and the estimated population attributable fraction in lean Asians.

METHODS

We studied 102,535 participants aged 40-79 years without histories of cancer or CVD at baseline between 1988 and 2009. The cause-specific hazard ratios (csHRs) of BMI categories (＜18.5, 18.5-20.9, 21.0-22.9 [reference], 23.0-24.9, 25.0-27.4, and ≥ 27.5 kg/m²) were estimated for each endpoint. The events considered were mortalities from obesity-related cancer (esophageal, colorectal, liver, pancreatic, kidney, female breast, and endometrial cancer) and those from CVD (coronary heart disease and stroke). Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated for these endpoints.

RESULTS

During a 19.2-year median follow-up, 2906 died from obesity-related cancer and 4532 died from CVD. The multivariable-adjusted csHRs (95% confidence interval) of higher BMI categories (25-27.4 and ≥ 27.5 kg/m²) for obesity-related cancer mortality were 0.93 (0.78, 1.10) and 1.18 (0.92, 1.50) in men and 1.25 (1.04, 1.50) and 1.48 (1.19, 1.84) in women, respectively. The corresponding csHRs for CVD mortality were 1.27 (1.10, 1.46) and 1.59 (1.30, 1.95) in men and 1.10 (0.95, 1.28) and 1.44 (1.21, 1.72) in women, respectively. The PAF of a BMI ≥ 25 kg/m² for obesity-related cancer was -0.2% in men and 6.7% in women and that for CVD was 5.0% in men and 4.5% in women.

CONCLUSION

A BMI ≥ 25 kg/m² is associated with an increased risk of obesity-related cancer in women and CVD in both sexes.

Weight Change Since Age 20 and the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: A Prospective Cohort Study

Aim: Weight change could have many health outcomes. This study aimed to investigate the association between weight change and mortality risk due to total cardiovascular disease (CVD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and stroke among Japanese.

Methods: We used Suita Study data from 4,746 people aged 30-79 years in this prospective cohort study. Weight change was defined as the difference between baseline weight and weight at age 20. We used Cox proportional hazards models to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of total CVD, IHD, and stroke mortality for 1) participants with a weight change (＞10, 5 to 10, -5 to -10, and ＜-10 kg) compared to those with stable weight (-4.9 to 4.9 kg) and 2) participants who moved from one body mass index category (underweight, normal weight, or overweight) to another compared to those with normal weight at age 20 and baseline.

Results: Within a median follow-up period of 19.9 years, the numbers of total CVD, IHD, and stroke mortality were 268, 132, and 79, respectively. Weight loss of ＞10 kg was associated with the increased risk of total CVD mortality 2.07 (1.29, 3.32) and stroke mortality 3.02 (1.40, 6.52). Moving from normal weight at age 20 to underweight at baseline was associated with the increased risk of total CVD, IHD, and stroke mortality: 1.76 (1.12, 2.77), 2.10 (1.13, 3.92), and 2.25 (1.05, 4.83), respectively.

Conclusion: Weight loss, especially when moving from normal to underweight, was associated with the increased risk of CVD mortality.