Weight Change Since Age 20 and the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: A Prospective Cohort Study

Association between underweight and risk of heart failure in diabetes patients

BACKGROUND

The risk of heart failure (HF) in underweight diabetes mellitus (DM) patients has rarely been studied. We conducted a cohort study to investigate the association between underweight (BMI < 18.5 kg/m2) and BMI change over time and the risk of HF in patients with type 2 DM.

METHODS

We utilized the health screening data from the National Health Insurance Service and the Korean National Health Screening database from 2009 to 2012, with follow-up until December 2018. Participants with DM were categorized into four groups based on their BMI at 4 years before study inclusion and BMI at the study entry: (1) Always Normal Weight (BMI at 4 years ago/BMI at study entry ≥18.5/≥18.5 kg/m2, reference group); (2) Transitioned to Underweight (≥18.5/<18.5 kg/m2); (3) Transitioned to Normal Weight (<18.5/≥18.5 kg/m2) and (4) Always Underweight (<18.5/<18.5 kg/m2). Participants were followed until the development of HF or at the end of the follow-up. Initial screening data included participants with DM who had the health screening during the study period (n = 2,746,079). Participants aged <20 years (n = 390), those who did not undergo health examination 4 years prior (n = 1,306,520), and those with missing data (n = 77,410) were excluded. Participants diagnosed with HF before study participation (n = 81,645) and within 1 year of study enrolment (n = 11,731) were excluded. After applying exclusion criteria, 1,268,383 participants were finally included in the analysis. The primary outcome was the development of HF. We employed Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for various confounding factors, to assess the risk of developing HF.

RESULTS

Median follow-up duration was 6.88 years and men were 63.16%. The mean ages of each groups were as follows: Always Normal Weight (57.92 ± 11.64 years), Transitioned to Underweight (62 ± 13.5 years), Transitioned to Normal Weight (56.6 ± 15.29 years) and Always Underweight (57.76 ± 15.35 years). In comparison with the Always Normal Weight group (n = 1,245,381, HF = 76,360), Transitioned to Underweight group (≥18.5/<18.5 kg/m2, n = 9304, HF = 880, adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR)1.389, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-1.485) or Transitioned to Normal Weight (<18.5/≥18.5 kg/m2, n = 6024, HF = 478, aHR 1.385, 95% CI 1.266-1.515) exhibited an increased risk of HF. The highest risk was observed in the Always Underweight group (<18.5/<18.5 kg/m2, n = 7674, HF = 665, aHR 1.612, 95% CI 1.493-1.740).

CONCLUSIONS

Underweight was significantly associated with the risk of HF in the DM population. Active surveillance for HF in an underweight DM population is needed.

Fatty Liver Index as a proxy for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and the risk of stroke and coronary heart disease: The Suita Study

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease in developed countries, but its role in predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) needs further investigation. Herein, we studied the association between NAFLD and the risk of CVD, stroke, and coronary heart disease (CHD) among Japanese people.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study analyzed data from 2,517 men and 3,958 women, aged 30-84 years, who were registered in the Suita Study. NAFLD was defined as Fatty Liver Index (FLI) ≥ 60. Cox proportional hazard models were applied to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of incident CVD, stroke, and CHD events by baseline FLI. The results were adjusted for age, smoking, alcohol consumption, hypertension, diabetes, lipid profile, chronic kidney disease, and cardiac murmur or valvular diseases.

RESULTS

Within 16.6 years of median follow-up, 590 participants developed CVD (346 stroke events and 244 CHD events). Women with NAFLD (FLI ≥ 60) showed a higher risk of CVD and stroke: HRs (95% CIs) = 1.69 (1.16, 2.46) and 2.06 (1.31, 3.24), respectively. Besides, women in the fourth and fifth (highest) FLI quintiles showed a higher risk of CVD and stroke than those in the third (middle) quintile: HRs (95% CIs) = 1.60 (1.08, 2.36) and 1.67 (1.13, 2.45) for CVD and 1.73 (1.07, 2.79) and 1.90 (1.18, 3.05) for stroke, respectively. No corresponding associations were detected in men. NAFLD was not associated with CHD risk in either sex.

CONCLUSIONS

NAFLD, diagnosed by FLI, was associated with a higher risk of CVD and stroke in Japanese women. From a preventive perspective, women with NAFLD should be targeted for CVD screenings and interventions.

Fatty Liver Index and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation in a General Japanese Population - The Suita Study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most diagnosed arrhythmia in clinical settings. The fatty liver index (FLI) is a marker of liver steatosis with potential cardiovascular implications. This study investigated whether FLI could predict the risk of AF.Methods and Results: We used data from the Suita Study, a Japanese population-based prospective cohort study. A total of 2,346 men and 3,543 women, aged 30-84 years, without prevalent AF were included and followed up. The diagnosis of AF was established during follow-up using electrocardiograms, hospital records, and death certificates. FLI was assessed during a baseline health checkup. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for incident AF per FLI quintile and log-transformed FLI. Within a median 14.5 years of follow-up, 142 men and 105 women developed AF. Compared with women in the third (middle) FLI quintile, women in the first (lowest), fourth, and fifth (highest) quintiles showed a higher risk of AF, with multivariable-adjusted HRs of 2.37 (95% CI 1.06-5.31), 2.60 (95% CI 1.30-5.17), and 2.04 (95% CI 1.00-4.18), respectively. No corresponding associations were observed in men. The change in log-transformed FLI was not associated with the risk of AF in either sex.

CONCLUSIONS

A U-shaped association between FLI and AF risk was detected in Japanese women. FLI could be a screening tool to detect women at high risk of developing AF.

Liver Enzymes and the Risk of Stroke among the General Japanese Population: A Prospective Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Stroke is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Liver enzymes, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), are markers of liver diseases with potential cardiovascular implications. This study aimed to investigate the prospective association between liver enzymes and stroke risk.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 3,379 men and 4,007 women without cardiovascular disease and registered in the Suita Study, a Japanese population-based prospective cohort study. The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of stroke risk were estimated per quintiles of ALT, AST, and GGT in men and women.

RESULTS

Within a median follow-up period of 16.7 years, 438 incident stroke events were diagnosed. In men, compared to the second quintiles, the fifth (highest) quintiles of liver enzymes showed increased stroke risks: HRs (95% CIs) = 2.07 (1.35, 3.18) in ALT, 1.66 (1.10, 2.53) in AST, and 1.76 (1.11, 2.81) in GGT. The associations did not change with cerebral infarction risk: HRs (95% CIs) = 2.09 (1.24, 3.50) in ALT, 1.84 (1.11, 3.06) in AST, and 1.74 (1.00, 3.04) in GGT. The lowest ALT, AST, and GGT quintiles tended to show increased stroke and cerebral infarction risks, yet these associations were statistically insignificant. No such associations were shown in women.

CONCLUSION

Elevated ALT, AST, and GGT levels were associated with increased stroke and cerebral infarction risks among Japanese men.

Serum cholesterol levels and the risk of brain natriuretic peptide-diagnosed heart failure in postmenopausal women: a population-based prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Hormonal changes during menopause can disturb serum cholesterol which is closely associated with cardiovascular disease. This study investigated the prospective association between serum cholesterol and heart failure (HF) risk in postmenopausal women.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 1,307 Japanese women, aged 55 to 94 years. All women had no history of HF, and their baseline brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels were less than 100 pg/mL. During the follow-ups conducted every 2 years, HF was diagnosed among women who developed BNP of 100 pg/mL or greater. Cox proportional hazard models were applied to calculate hazard ratios and 95% CI of HF for women per their baseline total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels. The Cox regression models were adjusted for age, body mass index, smoking, alcohol drinking, hypertension, diabetes, cardiac murmurs, arrhythmia, stroke or ischemic heart disease, chronic kidney disease, and lipid-lowering agent use.

RESULTS

Within an 8-year median follow-up, 153 participants developed HF. In the multivariable-adjusted model, women with total cholesterol of 240 mg/dL or greater (compared with 160-199 mg/dL) and HDL-C of 100 mg/dL or greater (compared with 50-59 mg/dL) showed an increased risk of HF: hazard ratios (95% CI) = 1.70 (1.04-2.77) and 2.70 (1.10-6.64), respectively. The results remained significant after further adjusting for baseline BNP. No associations were observed with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

CONCLUSIONS

Total cholesterol of 240 mg/dL or greater and HDL-C of 100 mg/dL or greater were positively associated with the risk of HF in postmenopausal Japanese women.

Blood pressure per the 2017 ACC/AHA and 2018 ESC/ESH guidelines and heart failure risk: the Suita Study

Hypertension is a significant risk factor for heart failure (HF). Since hypertension definition varies across guidelines, identifying blood pressure (BP) categories that should be targeted to prevent HF is required. We, therefore, investigated the association between hypertension per the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) and 2018 European Society of Cardiology/European Society of Hypertension (ESC/ESH) guidelines and HF risk. This prospective cohort study included randomly selected 2809 urban Japanese people from the Suita Study. Cox regression was used to assess HF risk, in the form of hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), for different BP categories in both guidelines, compared to a reference category defined as systolic BP (SBP) <120 mmHg and diastolic BP (DBP) <80 mmHg. Within 8 years of median follow-up, 339 HF cases were detected. Per the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines, hypertension I and II and isolated systolic hypertension were associated with increased HF risk: HRs (95% CIs) = 1.81 (1.33-2.47), 1.68 (1.24-2.27), and 1.64 (1.13-2.39), respectively. Per the 2018 ESC/ESH guidelines, high-normal BP, hypertension I, II, and III, and isolated systolic hypertension were associated with increased HF risk: HRs (95% CIs) = 1.88 (1.35-2.62), 1.57 (1.13-2.16), 2.10 (1.34-3.29), 2.57 (1.15-5.77), and 1.51 (1.04-2.19), respectively. In conclusion, hypertension and isolated systolic hypertension per the 2017 ACC/AHA and 2018 ESC/ESH guidelines and high-normal BP per the 2018 ESC/ESH guidelines are risk factors for HF.

Alcohol consumption and the risk of heart failure: the Suita Study and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Alcohol consumption is a modifiable lifestyle, but its role in heart failure (HF) development is controversial. Herein, we investigated the prospective association between alcohol consumption and HF risk.

METHODS

A total of 2,712 participants (1,149 men and 1,563 women) from the Suita Study were followed up every two years. Cox regression was applied to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of HF risk for heavy drinking (≥46 g/day in men or ≥23 g/day in women) and never drinking compared to light drinking (<23 g/day in men or <11.5 g/day in women). Then, we combined the results of the Suita Study with those from other eligible prospective cohort studies in a meta-analysis using the random-effects model.

RESULTS

In the Suita Study, within a median follow-up period of 8 years, 319 HF cases (162 in men and 157 in women) were detected. In men, but not women, never and heavy drinking carried a higher risk of HF than light drinking: HRs (95% CIs) = 1.65 (1.00, 2.73) and 2.14 (1.26, 3.66), respectively. Alike, the meta-analysis showed a higher risk of HF among heavy drinkers: HR (95% CI) = 1.37 (1.15, 1.62) and abstainers: HR (95% CI) = 1.18 (1.02, 1.37).

CONCLUSION

We indicated a J-shaped association between alcohol consumption and HF risk among Japanese men. The results of the meta-analysis came in line with the Suita Study. Heavy-drinking men should be targeted for lifestyle modification interventions.

Life satisfaction and the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the general Japanese population: the Suita Study

BACKGROUND

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Life satisfaction is a measure of mental health with a potential cardioprotective role. This study aimed to investigate the association between life satisfaction and ASCVD risk in the general Japanese population.

METHOD

We used data from 6,877 people (30-84 years) registered in the Suita Study, a Japanese population-based prospective cohort study. All participants were free from stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) at baseline. Then, participants were followed up for incident ASCVD, including cerebral infarction and CHD. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of incident ASCVD according to life satisfaction.

RESULTS

Within 102,545 person-years (median follow-up = 16.6 years), 482 incident ASCVD events were identified. In the age- and sex-adjusted model, being very satisfied, rather satisfied, or not sure, compared to being dissatisfied with life, showed a lower risk of ASCVD: HR (95% CI) = 0.55 (0.41, 0.74), 0.67 (0.50, 0.89), and 0.57 (0.36, 0.88), respectively (p-trend < 0.001). The associations remained consistent after adjusting for stress and unfortunate events: HR (95% CI) = 0.57 (0.42, 0.77), 0.68 (0.50, 0.91), and 0.54 (0.35, 0.84), respectively (p-trend < 0.001). The results did not vary between cerebral infarction and CHD: HR (95% CI) for being very satisfied with life = 0.58 (0.37, 0.91) and 0.55 (0.36, 0.84), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Life satisfaction was inversely associated with the risk of ASCVD in the investigated general Japanese population.

Association Between White Blood Cell Count and Atrial Fibrillation Risk - A Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) are increasing. The white blood cell (WBC) count is an indicator of systemic inflammation and is related to increased cardiovascular disease risk. Using data from the Suita Study, we investigated the association between WBC count and AF risk in the general Japanese population.Methods and Results: This prospective cohort study included 6,884 people, aged 30-84 years, with no baseline AF. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for AF incidence by WBC count quintile. Within a median follow-up period of 14.6 years, 312 AF cases were diagnosed. Compared with the lowest WBC count quintile, the highest quintile was associated with an increased AF risk (HR 1.57; 95% CI 1.07-2.29). The association was more pronounced among women than men (HR 2.16 [95% CI 1.10-4.26] and 1.55 [95% CI 0.99-2.44], respectively; P interaction=0.07), and among current than non-smokers (HR 4.66 [95% CI 1.89-11.50] and 1.61 [95% CI 1.01-2.57], respectively; P interaction=0.20). For each 1.0×10⁹-cells/L increment in WBC count, AF risk increased by 9% in men (9% in non-smokers, 10% in current smokers) and 20% in women (13% in non-smokers, 32% in current smokers).

CONCLUSIONS

A higher WBC count was positively associated with an elevated AF risk in the general Japanese population, especially in women who smoked.

The Lifelong Health Support 10: a Japanese prescription for a long and healthy life

Background

Although the age-adjusted incidence and mortality of cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been decreasing steadily in Japan, both diseases remain major contributors to morbidity and mortality along with the aging society. Herein, we aim to provide a prescription of 10 health tips for long and healthy life named the “Lifelong Health Support 10 (LHS10).”

Method

The LHS10 was developed by the preventive medicine specialists at the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center in Suita, where it has been used for health guidance to prevent CVD, cancer, and cognitive decline in addition to their major risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. It consisted of the lifestyle modification recommendations of the 2014 Japanese Society of Hypertension guidelines and the 2017 Japan Atherosclerosis Society Guidelines for preventing atherosclerotic CVD. Further, it came in line with other international lifestyle modification guidelines. In this narrative review, we summarized the results of several Japanese epidemiological studies investigating the association between the LHS10 items and the risk of cancer, CVD, and other chronic diseases including dementia, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease.

Results

The LHS10 included avoiding smoking and secondhand smoke exposure, engaging in physical activity, refraining from excessive alcohol drinking, reducing fried foods and sugary soft drinks, cutting salt in food, consuming more vegetables, fruits, fish, soy foods, and fibers, and maintaining proper body weight. All items of the LHS10 were shown to reduce the risk of cancer, CVD, and other chronic diseases.

Conclusions

The LHS10 can be a helpful tool for health guidance.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1265/ehpm.22-00085.

Association Between Weight Change and Increased Likelihood of Abdominal Aortic Calcification Among Men

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to explore the effect of weight change on abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) among men.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the 2013 to 2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Self-reported cardiovascular disease patients were excluded. Lateral spine images were used to quantify AAC score and severe AAC was defined as a AAC score greater than 6. Weight change over a 10-year period was defined as long-term weight change, and weight change over a 1-year period was defined as short-term weight change. The relationship between long-term and short-term weight change with AAC grade was estimated by using multivariable regression analysis and subgroup analysis.

RESULTS

After adjusting for covariates, weight gain, especially severe weight gain (> 10 kg), was associated with increased likelihood of AAC and severe AAC both in the short term (1 year) and long term (10 years) among men when compared to stable weight change, while long-term weight loss could also lead to an increased likelihood of AAC and severe AAC.

CONCLUSION

Stable body weight might be a predictor of a lower risk of AAC and severe AAC among men in the long term and short term.

QRS transitional zone rotations and the risk of atrial fibrillation: the Suita Study

ECG screening can detect people at risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF). Recent literature indicated that QRS transitional zone rotations could predict several cardiovascular events. Herein, we investigated the association between QRS transitional zone rotations and the future risk of AF. This prospective cohort study included 6794 participants (3178 men and 3616 women), aged 30-84 years, from the urban Japanese city of Suita. QRS transitional zone rotations were diagnosed by ECG during baseline, while AF was diagnosed by ECG, hospital records, and checkups during follow-up. The Cox regression was used to compute the sex-specified hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of incident AF for participants with counterclockwise and clockwise QRS transitional zone rotations compared to those with normal rotation. Within a median follow-up period of 14.6 years, 311 participants (206 men and 105 women) developed AF. Counterclockwise rotation was associated with the reduced risk of AF among men, but not women, in the age-adjusted model: HR (95% CI) = 0.66 (0.44, 0.98) and the multivariable-adjusted model: HR (95% CI) = 0.65 (0.43, 0.97). Clockwise rotation was not associated with AF risk in either sex. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to indicate that counterclockwise rotation could be associated with the reduced risk of AF in men. More studies are needed to confirm our findings and elucidate possible mechanisms.