The evolution of the general practice workforce in Australia, 1991–2003

Regularity of contact with general practitioners and diabetes-related hospitalisation through a period of policy change: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study evaluated changes in regularity of general practitioner (GP) contact (the pattern of visits over time) and the impact of regularity on diabetes-related hospitalisation following introduction of care co-ordination incentives.

METHODS

Linked primary care, hospital and death records covered West Australian adults from 1991-2004. Different eras were evaluated based on incentive program changes and model fit, to assess changes in regularity. Changes in regularity, derived from the variance in the number of days between GP contacts, were evaluated using ordered logistic regression. The impact of regularity on hospitalisation rates and costs were evaluated.

RESULTS

Two eras prior to program introduction (1991/92-1994/9 and 1995/96-1998/99), and one after (1999/2000-2002/03) were assessed. Among 153,455 at risk of diabetes-related hospitalisation GP contact became slightly less regular in the second era, though there was no change from the second to third era. The most regular decile had 5.5% fewer hospitalisations (95% CI -0.9% to -9.9%) and lower per-patient costs (difference AU$115, CI -$63 to -$167) than the least regular. Associations were similar in each era.

CONCLUSIONS

Ongoing relationships between GPs and patients are important to maintaining health. Historical data provide the opportunity to assess the impact of care co-ordination incentives on relationships.

GP services in Australia: presentation profiles during usual practice hours and after-hours periods

After-hours general practitioner (GP) services can reduce emergency department demand, which is currently increasing in Australia. Understanding GP after-hours care may assist in service planning. From April 2014 to March 2015, 986 GPs recorded 38275 consultations with start and finish times in the Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health (BEACH) study, a national, cross-sectional, representative study of GP activity. GP and patient characteristics and the content of encounters in usual-hours and after-hours were compared. Significantly more after-hours than usual-hours encounters were with: GPs aged 60+ years; in metropolitan practices; and practices with 10+ GPs. Patients seen after-hours were more often: male; aged 15–64 years; new to practice; and less likely to hold a Commonwealth Concession Card. They were more likely to be prescribed antibiotics and less likely to: have chronic problems managed; be referred; receive psycholeptic or psychoanaleptic prescription; and undergo a procedure. Throat symptoms, fever and injury were more common reasons for encounter, while infections and injury were more frequently managed problems after-hours. The patient mix, GP characteristics, problems managed and management actions in after-hours care differ from those in usual-hours care in Australia. This greater understanding of after-hours care is the first step to informed resource allocation to improve the delivery of after-hours primary care.

Factors that affect general practice as a choice of medical speciality: implications for policy development

Objective This article critically appraises the range of personal, professional and social factors that affect the choice of speciality across medical students, prevocational doctors, general practice registrars and general practitioners. Methods This qualitative study applied constructs from the fields of decision theory and career theory to better understand the complex nature of choosing a speciality. In all, 47 in-depth interviews were conducted with participants at different stages of their career cycle. The data was codified and analysed using NVivo to identify key factors that influenced speciality choice. Results The research identified 77 individual findings influencing general practice as a choice of medical speciality. These were distilled into a matrix to show that factors such as money, prestige and peer interaction did not have a compelling effect, whereas clinical and academic role models, flexibility, work-life balance, scope of practice, connection with patients, training environment and practical opportunities did. Conclusion The findings indicate that the decision in relation to the choice of medical speciality is a complex cognitive process that is undertaken within a personal, social and professional context particular to each individual. What is known about the topic? Current literature aims to quantify changes in attitudes towards choice of speciality or the effect of particular variables in isolation while ignoring the complexity of this decision process and how the numerous variables compare with each other. What does this paper add? The present study is the first intergenerational research on this topic in the Australian context and the paper dismisses the role of prestige and remuneration as key drivers of choice in picking general practice as a speciality, noting that money is merely a 'hygiene factor'. What are the implications for policy makers? A policy framework outlining 10 key principles is presented to assist policy makers seeking to affect workforce outcomes by applying policy levers to influence doctors' choice of speciality.

General practice registrars' intentions for future practice: implications for rural medical workforce planning

The models of practice that general practice registrars (GPRs) envisage undertaking will affect workforce supply. The aim of this research was to determine practice intentions of current GPRs in a regional general practice training program (Coast City Country General Practice Training). Questionnaires were circulated to 220 GPRs undertaking general practice placements to determine characteristics of ideal practice models and intentions for future practice. Responses were received for 99 participants (45%). Current GPRs intend to work an average of less than eight half-day sessions/week, with male participants intending to work more hours (t(91)=3.528, P=0.001). More than one-third of this regional cohort intends to practice in metropolitan centres. Proximity to family and friends was the most important factor influencing the choice of practice location. Men ranked remuneration for work as more important (t (88)=-4.280, P<0.001) and women ranked the ability to work part-time higher (t(94)=3.697, P<0.001). Fee-for-service payment alone, or in combination with capitation, was the preferred payment system. Only 22% of Australian medical graduates intend to own their own practice compared with 52% of international medical graduates (χ²(1)=8.498, P=0.004). Future general practitioners (GPs) intend to work fewer hours than current GPs. Assumptions about lifestyle factors, practice models and possible professional roles should be carefully evaluated when developing strategies to recruit GPs and GPRs into rural practice.

General practitioners’ perceptions of different practice models: a qualitative study

Ownership of general practices is changing, but perceptions of GPs about ownership and the factors influencing their decisions about this are not well understood. The aim of this study was to explore GPs’ perceptions and attitudes towards different practice models. GPs (n=138) in the Southern Adelaide-Fleurieu-Kangaroo Island Medicare Local region participated in semi-structured interviews, which were analysed thematically. Thirty-nine per cent of participants were practice owners, and 64% were working in a practice with six or more GPs. Factors driving practice ownership were flexibility, autonomy and financial reward. Factors discouraging ownership were increased responsibility, time commitment and the potential for financial burden. Some interest in future practice ownership was evident, but concerns were also raised about the knowledge and skills required. Strategies are needed both to support GPs who do wish to be practice owners and to facilitate a range of practice models to ensure continued delivery of accessible, quality primary medical care to patients.

Is identification of smoking, risky alcohol consumption and overweight and obesity by General Practitioners improving? A comparison over time

BACKGROUND

Detection of lifestyle risk factors by GPs is the first step required for intervention. Despite significant investment in preventive health care in general practice, little is known about whether GP detection of lifestyle risk factors have improved over time.

OBJECTIVES

To examine whether sensitivity and specificity of GP detection of smoking, risky alcohol consumption and overweight and obesity has increased in patients presenting to see their GP, by comparing results from four Australian studies conducted between 1982 and 2011.

METHODS

Demographic characteristics of patient and GP samples and the prevalence, sensitivity and specificity of detection of each risk factor were extracted from published studies. Differences between GP and patient sample characteristics were examined. To identify trends over time in prevalence of risk factors, sensitivity and specificity of detection across studies and the Cochran-Armitage test for trend were calculated for each risk factor for the overall sample and by male and female subgroups.

RESULTS

There were no statistically significant changes in the sensitivity of GP detection of smoking or overweight or obesity over time. Specificity of detection of smoking increased from 64.7% to 98% (P < 0.0001) and decreased for overweight or obesity from 92% to 89% (P = 0.01). There was a small decrease in the sensitivity of detection of alcohol consumption (P = 0.02) and an increase in specificity (P = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite significant investment to increase GP detection and intervention for lifestyle risk factors, accurate detection of smoking, risky alcohol consumption and overweight and obesity occurs for less than two-thirds of all patients.

AgedCare+GP: description and evaluation of an in-house model of general practice in a residential aged-care facility

This paper describes a medical model to provide in-house GP services to residents of aged-care facilities. Access to GP services for aged-care residents is decreasing, partially due to the changing demographic of the Australian GP workforce. The model we have developed is an in-house GP (AgedCare+GP) trialled in a publicly funded residential aged-care facility (RACF). The service model was based on the GP cooperative used in our after-hours general practice (AfterHours+GP). Briefly, the service model involves rostering a core group of GPs to provide weekly sessional clinics at the RACF. Financial contributions from appropriate Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) items for aged-care planning (including chronic conditions) provided adequate funds to operate the clinic for RACF residents. Evaluation of the service model used the number of resident transfers to the local emergency department as the primary outcome measure. There were 37 transfers of residents in the 3 months before the commencement of the AgedCare+GP and 11 transfers over a 3-month period at the end of the first year of operation; a reduction of almost 70%. This project demonstrates that AgedCare+GP is a successful model for GP service provision to RACF residents, and it also reduces the number of emergency department transfers.

Getting doctors into the bush: general practitioners' preferences for rural location

A key policy issue in many countries is the maldistribution of doctors across geographic areas, which has important effects on equity of access and health care costs. Many government programs and incentive schemes have been established to encourage doctors to practise in rural areas. However, there is little robust evidence of the effectiveness of such incentive schemes. The aim of this study is to examine the preferences of general practitioners (GPs) for rural location using a discrete choice experiment. This is used to estimate the probabilities of moving to a rural area, and the size of financial incentives GPs would require to move there. GPs were asked to choose between two job options or to stay at their current job as part of the Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life (MABEL) longitudinal survey of doctors. 3727 GPs completed the experiment. Sixty five per cent of GPs chose to stay where they were in all choices presented to them. Moving to an inland town with less than 5000 population and reasonable levels of other job characteristics would require incentives equivalent to 64% of current average annual personal earnings ($116,000). Moving to a town with a population between 5000 and 20,000 people would require incentives of at least 37% of current annual earnings, around $68,000. The size of incentives depends not only on the area but also on the characteristics of the job. The least attractive rural job package would require incentives of at least 130% of annual earnings, around $237,000. It is important to begin to tailor incentive packages to the characteristics of jobs and of rural areas.

Advance care planning and interpersonal relationships: a two-way street

BACKGROUND

Advance care planning (ACP) has been gaining prominence for its perceived benefits for patients in enhancing patient autonomy and ensuring high-quality end-of-life-care. Moreover, it has been postulated that ACP has positive effects on families and health professionals and their relationship with the patient. However, there is a paucity of studies examining the views of GPs on this issue.

OBJECTIVE

To explore GP views on the impact that ACP has on interpersonal relationships among those involved in the patient's care.

METHOD

Semi-structured, open-ended interviews of a purposive sample of 17 GPs. Interview transcripts were analysed using constructionist grounded theory methodology with QSR NVivo 9 software.

RESULTS

ACP was seen as having both positive and negative impacts on interpersonal relationships. It was thought to enhance family relationships, help resolve conflicts between families and health professionals and improve trust and understanding between patients and health professionals. Negatively, it could take the family's attention away from patient care. The link between ACP and interpersonal relationships was perceived to be bidirectional-the nature of interpersonal relationship that patients have with their families and health professionals has a profound impact on what form of ACP is likely to be useful.

CONCLUSION

Our study highlights the importance that GPs place on the link between ACP and the patient's interpersonal context. This has implications on how ACP is conducted in primary care settings that are considerably different from other care settings in their emphasis on continuity of care and long-term nature of relationships.

Forecasting Japan's physician shortage in 2035 as the first full-fledged aged society

Introduction

Japan is rapidly becoming a full-fledged aged society, and physician shortage is a significant concern. The Japanese government has increased the number of medical school enrollments since 2008, but some researchers warn that this increase could lead to physician surplus in the future. It is unknown how many physicians will be required to accommodate future healthcare needs.

Materials and Methods

We simulated changes in age/sex composition of the population, fatalities (the number of fatalities for the consecutive five years), and number of physicians from 2010 to 2035. Two indicators were defined: fatalities per physician and fatalities by physician working hour, based on the data of the working hours of physicians for each tuple of sex and age groups. We estimated the necessary number of physicians in 2035 and the number of new physicians to maintain the indicator levels in 2010.

Results

The number of physicians per 1,000 population is predicted to rise from 2·00 in 2010 to 3·14 in 2035. The number of physicians aged 60 years or older is expected to increase from 55,375 (20% of physicians) to 141,711 (36%). In 2010 and 2035, fatalities per physician were 23·1 and 24·0 for the total population, and 13·9 and 19·2 for 75 years or older, respectively. Fatalities per physician working hour are predicted to rise from 0·128 to 0·138. If working hours are limited to 48 hours per week in 2035, the number of fatalities per physician working hour is expected to be 0·196, and the number of new physicians must be increased by 53% over the current pace.

Discussion

The number of physicians per population continues to rise, but the estimated supply will not fulfill the demand for healthcare in the aging society. Strategies to increase the number of physicians and improve working conditions are urgently needed.

Study protocol: the Registrar Clinical Encounters in Training (ReCEnT) study

BACKGROUND

Patient encounters are the core learning activity of Australian general practice (family practice) training. Exposure to patient demographics and presentations may vary from one general practice registrar (vocational trainee) to another. This can affect comprehensiveness of training. Currently, there is no mechanism to systematically capture the content of GP registrar consultations. The aim of the Registrar Clinical Encounters in Training (ReCEnT) study is to document longitudinally the nature and associations of consultation-based clinical and educational experiences of general practice registrars.

METHODS/DESIGN

This is an ongoing prospective multi-site cohort study of general practice registrars' consultations, entailing paper-based recording of consultation data. The study setting is general practices affiliated with three geographically-based Australian general practice regional training providers. Registrars record details of 60 consecutive consultations. Data collected includes registrar demographics, details of the consultation, patient demographics, reasons for encounter and problems managed. Problems managed are coded with the International Classification of Primary Care (second edition) classification system. Additionally, registrars record educational factors related to the encounter. The study will follow the clinical exposure of each registrar six-monthly over the 18 months to two years (full-time equivalent) of their general practice training program.

CONCLUSIONS

The study will provide data on a range of factors (patient, registrar and consultation factors). This data will be used to inform a range of educational decisions as well as being used to answer educational research questions. We plan to use ReCEnT as a formative assessment tool for registrars and help identify and address educational needs. The study will facilitate program evaluation by the participating training providers and thus improve articulation of educational programs with practice experience. From the research point of view it will address an evidence gap - the in-practice clinical and educational experience of general practice trainees, determinants of these experiences, and the determinants of registrars' patterns of practice (for example, prescribing practice) over the course of their training.

Tracking family medicine graduates. Where do they go, what services do they provide and whom do they see?

BACKGROUND

There are continued concerns over an adequate supply of family physicians (FPs) practicing in Canada. While most resource planning has focused on intake into postgraduate education, less information is available on what postgraduate medical training yields. We therefore undertook a study of Family Medicine (FM) graduates from the University of Toronto (U of T) to determine the type of information for physician resource planning that may come from tracking FM graduates using health administrative data. This study compared three cohorts of FM graduates over a 10 year period of time and it also compared FM graduates to all Ontario practicing FPs in 2005/06. The objectives for tracking the three cohorts of FM graduates were to: 1) describe where FM graduates practice in the province 2) examine the impact of a policy introduced to influence the distribution of new FM graduates in the province 3) describe the services provided by FM graduates and 4) compare workload measures. The objectives for the comparison of FM graduates to all practicing FPs in 2005/06 were to: 1) describe the patient population served by FM graduates, 2) compare workload of FM graduates to all practicing FPs.

METHODS

The study cohort consisted of all U of T FM postgraduate trainees who started and completed their training between 1993 and 2003. This study was a descriptive record linkage study whereby postgraduate information for FM graduates was linked to provincial health administrative data. Comprehensiveness of care indicators and workload measures based on administrative data where determined for the study cohort.

RESULTS

From 1993 to 2003 there were 857 University of Toronto FM graduates. While the majority of U of T FM graduates practice in Toronto or the surrounding Greater Toronto Area, there are FM graduates from U of T practicing in every region in Ontario, Canada. The proportion of FM graduates undertaking further emergency training had doubled from 3.6% to 7.8%. From 1993 to 2003, a higher proportion of the most recent FM graduates did hospital visits, emergency room care and a lower proportion undertook home visits. Male FM graduates appear to have had higher workloads compared with female FM graduates, though the difference between them was decreasing over time. A 1997 policy initiative to discount fees paid to new FPs practicing in areas deemed over supplied did result in a decrease in the proportion of FM graduates practicing in metropolitan areas.

CONCLUSIONS

We were able to profile the practices of FM graduates using existing and routinely collected population-based health administrative data. Further work tracking FM graduates could be helpful for physician resource forecasting and in examining the impact of policies on family medicine practice.

The global financial crisis and Australian general practice

Objective. To explore the potential effects of the global financial crisis (GFC) on the market for general practitioner (GP) services in Australia. Design. We estimate the impact of changes in unemployment rates on demand for GP services and the impact of lost asset values on GP retirement plans and work patterns. Combining these supply and demand effects, we estimate the potential effect of the GFC on the market for GP services under various scenarios. Results. If deferral of retirement increases GP availability by 2%, and historic trends to reduce GP working hours are halved, at the current level of ~5.2% unemployment average fees would decline by $0.23 per GP consultation and volumes of GP services would rise by 2.53% with almost no change in average GP gross earnings over what would otherwise have occurred. With 8.5% unemployment, as initially predicted by Treasury, GP fees would increase by $0.91 and GP income by nearly 3%. Conclusions. The GFC is likely to increase activity in the GP market and potentially to reduce fee levels relative to the pre-GFC trends. Net effects on average GP incomes are likely to be small at current unemployment levels. What is known about the topic? Although the broad directions of the impact of the global financial crisis on the demand for and supply of GP services have been the subject of public discussion, the overall impact on the GP market has not been formally assessed. What does this paper add? Drawing on existing supply and demand models, we estimate the likely effect of the global financial crisis on GP activity levels, GP earnings, and the fees to be faced by patients. What are the implications for practitioners? Practitioners on average are likely to work harder to recover losses in the investments they have made for their retirements. They may face lower fees than would have been the case due to the increasing supply of GPs as some defer retirement, but average incomes are likely to be minimally affected.

General practitioner workforce planning: assessment of four policy directions

Background

Estimating the supply of GPs into the future is important in forecasting shortages. The lengthy training process for medicine means that adjusting supply to meet demand in a timely fashion is problematic. This study uses Ireland as a case study to determine the future demand and supply of GPs and to assess the potential impact of several possible interventions to address future shortages.

Methods

Demand was estimated by applying GP visit rates by age and sex to national population projections. Supply was modelled using a range of parameters derived from two national surveys of GPs. A stochastic modelling approach was adopted to determine the probable future supply of GPs. Four policy interventions were tested: increasing vocational training places; recruiting GPs from abroad; incentivising later retirement; increasing nurse substitution to enable practice nurses to deliver more services.

Results

Relative to most other European countries, Ireland has few GPs per capita. Ireland has an ageing population and demand is estimated to increase by 19% by 2021. Without intervention, the supply of GPs will be 5.7% less than required in 2021. Increasing training places will enable supply to meet demand but only after 2019. Recruiting GPs from overseas will enable supply to meet demand continuously if the number recruited is approximately 0.8 per cent of the current workforce per annum. Later retirement has only a short-term impact. Nurse substitution can enable supply to meet demand but only if large numbers of practice nurses are recruited and allowed to deliver a wide range of GP services.

Conclusions

A significant shortfall in GP supply is predicted for Ireland unless recruitment is increased. The shortfall will have numerous knock-on effects including price increases, longer waiting lists and an increased burden on hospitals. Increasing training places will not provide an adequate response to future shortages. Foreign recruitment has ethical considerations but may provide a rapid and effective response. Increased nurse substitution appears to offer the best long-term prospects of addressing GP shortages and presents the opportunity to reshape general practice to meet the demands of the future.

Improving general practice consultations for older people with asthma: a cluster randomised control trial

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effectiveness of a multifaceted educational intervention for general practitioners to improve the outcomes of older people with asthma.

DESIGN

Cluster randomised controlled trial.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

42 GPs recruited from metropolitan Melbourne between 1 August 2006 and 31 July 2007, randomly assigned to an intervention or control group, and 107 patients with asthma, aged 55 years or older (consecutive patients recruited by the GPs).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Evaluation by means of a videorecorded consultation with a simulated patient for GPs; and for patients, asthma control and quality of life, lung function and action plan ownership at baseline and at 4 months.

RESULTS

GPs in the intervention group scored significantly higher than those in the control group for the content and style of their consultation with simulated patients. At 4 months' follow-up, there was no significant difference between patient groups in the asthma control scores, asthma-related quality of life or lung function.

CONCLUSION

This trial showed an improvement in GPs' performance in delivering asthma care to older people. Despite this, there was no significant improvement in patient outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12607000634471.

Overseas‐trained doctors in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health services: many unanswered questions

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health services are heavily dependent on overseas-trained doctors (OTDs). These OTDs are increasingly from countries with variable English language and educational equivalency compared with locally trained doctors. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health services create particular demands for all doctors, such as negotiating "cultural domains" and acknowledging the contribution of Aboriginal health workers. Little is known about the roles and experience of OTDs in health service provision in Indigenous communities. Barriers to effective research into the experience of OTDs include privacy legislation and a lack of standardised data. Researching the narratives of OTDs in Indigenous health services offers an opportunity to explore the diversity and complexity of the cultural interfaces in health service provision.

The independent effect of age of general practitioner on clinical practice

OBJECTIVE

To establish the extent to which general practitioner age alone explains variations in patient morbidity and treatment patterns.

SETTING

An on-going, national survey of general practice activity in Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

A random sample of 5013 GPs with a minimum of 375 general practice Medicare items claimed in the previous 3 months. Each GP contributed details of 100 consecutive encounters, with about 1000 GPs sampled each year between 1998 and 2003.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Effect of practitioner age on GP activity after removing the influence of measured confounding factors: doctor, patient and practice characteristics; number of problems; and morbidity managed at encounters.

RESULTS

GP age played a significant role in practice style. In comparison with young GPs (< 35 years), older GPs provided more home visits (P < 0.001) and attendances at residential aged-care facilities (P = 0.044); were more likely to manage chronic problems (P < 0.001); had higher prescribing rates (P < 0.001), and lower rates of pathology ordering (P < 0.001) and non-pharmacological treatments (P < 0.001). Individual body system management rates also differed significantly between younger and older GPs.

CONCLUSION

A GP's age plays a significant role in determining practice style. Our results have implications in terms of the ageing GP population and in the wider context of the ageing medical labour force.

Sexual health problems managed in Australian general practice: a national, cross sectional survey

OBJECTIVES

To ascertain how frequently Australian general practitioners (GPs) identify sexual health (SH) problems, to gain understanding of how SH problems are managed in general practice and to determine the characteristics of GPs who manage them.

METHODS

A secondary analysis of data from the BEACH programme April 2000-March 2003. BEACH is a cross sectional national survey of GP activity: approximately 1000 GPs per year, each records details of 100 consecutive patient encounters. Initially, patient reasons for encounter (RFE), suggestive of a SH problem, were used to derive a list of SH problems (that is, doctor's diagnosis/problem label). Management of these problems was then investigated for all encounters with patients aged 12-49 years. The frequency of SH problems, their management and the characteristics of GPs managing them, were analysed using SAS.

RESULTS

During 299,000 encounters with 2990 GPs, 3499 (1.17 per 100 encounters) STI/SH problems were managed, the majority (81.1%) in females. The most common in women were genital candidiasis, vaginal symptoms, urinary symptoms, and intermenstrual bleeding, and in men were testicular symptoms, genital warts, and urethritis. Tests to exclude specific STIs were seldom taken and symptomatic management was common. GPs managing SH problems were younger, more likely to be female, have fewer years in practice, work in larger practices; hold FRACGP status (all p = <0.001) than those GPs who managed none.

CONCLUSION

Patients seeking medical attention for SH problems are often managed by GPs. Tests to diagnose or exclude specific sexually transmitted infections are seldom ordered and symptomatic management is common. Strategies to improve management of SH problems in general practice need to be developed and evaluated.

Australian general practice: where have the GP services gone?

BACKGROUND

While the number of GP services provided in Australia increased steadily from the inception of Medicare in 1984 until the mid 1990s, it declined by 6.6% from 1997-8 to 2003-4. This reflects a decline in average number of services provided per GP of 8.0%. In Australia, as in the US and Canada, there has been a change in the composition of the GP workforce in recent years, in particular an increased feminisation and aging of the GP workforce. We explore whether the decline in average level of services per GP is an inevitable outcome of changes in the composition of the GP workforce, or due to changes in the behaviour of individual GPs driven by attitudinal or economic factors.

METHOD

Using 8 years of data on the levels of GP activity within the Medicare system, we apply standardisation techniques to examine the expected impact of changes in the composition of the GP workforce. We show that the increasing feminisation of the GP workforce over this period would lead to a reduction in overall GP activity levels, everything else being equal, but that the effect is small (1.9%). Aging of workforce would have led to an increase in overall activity levels (7.5%), as would increases in levels of vocational registration (4.2%) and increases in the proportion of overseas-trained GPs (0.6%).

RESULTS

Overall, if GPs of a given age-sex-education/training category had continued to provide services at the same average level in 2003 as in 1996, the change in composition from 1996 to 2003 would have led to increases in the levels of services per GP of 3.9%. This is 11.4% above the level of services per GP actually observed. We have examined changes in the number of services per GP within 'pseudo cohorts' of GPs, and observe that young cohorts of GPs provide fewer services on average than previous young cohorts. Middle-aged GPs, particularly middle-aged male GPs, have reduced the number of services they individually provide. While this reduced level of activity of individual GPs could be due to changes in the underlying need for services, it is more likely to be as a result of reduced demand due to higher prices being charged (consistent with the observed increases in charging levels), or to changing attitudes of GPs seeking more family time.

CONCLUSION

In planning for the future GP workforce, policy makers need to consider many factors. These include not only the demographic factors that influence the volume of GP activity, but also the changing behaviour of GPs and the factors that influence this behaviour.

Determinants of consultation length in Australian general practice

OBJECTIVE

To measure the independent effect on length of general-practice consultations of a range of characteristics of the general practitioner (GP), practice, patient and consultation, as a basis for considering future GP workforce needs.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of data from the BEACH (Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health) study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Data were obtained from 1904 GPs Australia-wide on 70,758 consultations between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2002; all consultations that were claimable from the Australian Government's Medicare system as General Practice Attendances and had recorded start and finish times were included.

MAIN OUTCOME VARIABLES

Characteristics of the GP, practice, patient and consultation that were significantly related to consultation length, determined by multiple regression analysis.

RESULTS

The following variables had an independent positive effect on consultation length: GP female, older, graduated in Australia, FRACGP-qualified, and in rural practice; patient female, older, new to practice, with higher socioeconomic status, no health concession card, more reasons for encounter, and more problems managed; and management of specific problem types (social, psychological and female genital problems), management of chronic disease, and provision of clinical treatments.

CONCLUSION

The independent relationship of some GP, practice, patient and consultation characteristics with length of consultation may affect future GP supply. These factors should be considered in modelling future general practice workforce needs.