More doctors, but not enough: Australian medical workforce supply 2001-2012

Improving rural and remote health workforce retention amid global workforce shortages: a scoping review of evaluated workforce interventions

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to conduct a scoping review of a global body of scholarly and industry (grey) literature for evidence of implemented and evaluated interventions to identify best practice workforce retention strategies for organisations providing health services in rural and remote areas.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH

A scoping review was conducted of the scholarly and grey literature by two independent researchers. This comprised a search of four scholarly databases, and a Google and website search for grey literature. Quality checks were conducted, and a total of 15 documents were included in the literature review. Using the World Health Organisation's categories of workforce intervention (regulatory, education, financial incentives, personal and professional support), the documents were analysed to identify effective workforce interventions.

FINDINGS

The literature review found evidence of regulatory impacts as well as organisation-level evaluated workforce interventions for education-to-employment pathways (education), remuneration programs (financial incentives) and working and living conditions (personal and professional support) but seldom provided insight into how successful interventions were implemented or evaluated at the organisational level. Further, there was an absence of scholarship contributing to the development of empirical evidence to inform organisations about designing, implementing and evaluating workforce strategies to improve health workforce retention in rural and remote communities.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE

Few studies have focused on evidence-based organisation-level interventions to improve rural and remote workforce sustainability. This article offers insights to shape future intervention implementation and evaluation research for rural and remote health workforce sustainability.

General practice managers' motivations for skill mix change in primary care: Results from a cross-sectional survey in England

OBJECTIVES

The objectives are to determine the factors that motivated GP practice managers in England to employ non-medical roles, and to identify an ideal hypothetical GP practice workforce.

METHODS

Cross-sectional survey of GP practice managers in England (n = 1205). The survey focused on six non-medical roles: advanced nurse practitioner, specialist nurse, health care assistant, physician associate, paramedic and pharmacist.

RESULTS

The three most commonly selected motivating factors were: (i) to achieve a better match between what patients need and what the practitioner team can deliver; (ii) to increase overall appointment availability and (iii) to release GP time. Employment of pharmacists and physician associates was most commonly supported by additional funding. Practice managers preferred accessing new non-medical roles through a primary care network or similar, while there was a clear preference for direct employment of additional GPs, advanced nurse practitioners or practice nurses. The ideal practice workforce would comprise over 70% of GPs and nurses, containing, on average, fewer GPs than the current GP practice workforce.

CONCLUSION

This study confirms that more diverse teams of practitioners are playing an increasing role in providing primary care in England. Managers prefer not to employ all new roles directly within the practice. A more detailed investigation of future workforce requirements is necessary to ensure that health policy supports the funding (whether practice or population based), recruitment, training, deployment and workloads associated with the mix of roles needed in an effective primary care workforce.

Understanding patient preferences for emergency care for lower triage acuity presentations during GP hours: a qualitative study in Australia

BACKGROUND

Low acuity presentations to Australian emergency departments drive long wait times, higher costs and may be better treated in primary care settings. This study sought to understand factors leading these patients to present to emergency departments.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews were carried out with patients at two tertiary emergency departments in Sydney during general practitioner opening hours. Nvivo was used to code the interviews and a thematic analysis was carried out to capture the main themes from the interviews.

RESULTS

Forty-four interviews were included in the analysis across the two sites. They represented a diverse population in terms of ethnicity, education and socioeconomic background. Patient preferences for emergency care were organised into four main themes: (i) patients were referred (either by another health service, work, friend, or family), (ii) emergency department factors (convenience of investigations and severity of symptoms requiring emergency care), (iii) GP factors (does not have a GP, cannot find an appointment with a GP or has previously had a negative experience with a GP) and (iv) personal factors such as their connection to the hospital.

CONCLUSION

Multiple factors led patients to seek ED care for low acuity presentations during GP hours. Some of these factors could be addressed to meet patient needs in the community, however this is currently not the case. Addressing these factors to improve access to GP clinics and the availability of services outside the hospital setting could reduce ED presentations and likely improve patient experience.

Turnover among Australian general practitioners: a longitudinal gender analysis

BACKGROUND

Little is known about gender differences in general practitioner (GP) turnover. It is important to understand potential divergence given both the feminization of the Australian GP workforce and projected shortages of GPs.

OBJECTIVE

There is increasing evidence that national health outcomes are related to the extent to which health care systems incorporate high quality primary care. Quality primary care is, in turn reliant on a stable general practice (GP) workforce. With the increasing feminization of medical schools, we sought to identify correlates of turnover in the GP workforce, separately for women and men, focusing particularly on part-time employment and child-rearing, and distinguishing effects related to either planned or unplanned turnover.

METHODS

Annual responses from cohorts of at least 1900 women GPs and 2000 men GPs are used for up to eight waves of the Medicine in Australia-Balancing Employment and Life (MABEL) longitudinal survey of doctors. Descriptive and bivariate correlations are provided. Random effects ordered logit is applied to dependent variables for turnover intentions measuring intent to "leave direct care" or "leave medicine". A behavioral measure of turnover is used in random effects logit regressions, with the exclusion or inclusion of the confounding intentions variables revealing correlates of unplanned or planned turnover.

RESULTS

Part-time employment is associated with turnover intentions among both women (84% or 94% increase in the odds ratios or ORs) and particularly men (414% or 672%), and with actual turnover for women (150% or 49%) and for men (160% or 107%). Women GPs engage in more unplanned turnover than men: they are 85% more likely to engage in turnover after controlling for intentions. Unplanned turnover is concentrated among women below 40 years of age and with young children, even though both groups report below average turnover intentions.

CONCLUSION

Although further studies are needed to identify specific factors associated with GP turnover among women, the analysis highlights the need to focus on women GPs who are either young or have young children. Given the substantial personal and social investment required to produce GPs, it is wasteful to lose so many young women early in their careers.

The future of the Australian midwifery workforce - impacts of ageing and workforce exit on the number of registered midwives

PROBLEM

Ensuring an adequate supply of the midwife workforce will be essential to meet the future demands for maternity care within Australia.

BACKGROUND

Aim: To project the overall number of midwives registered with the Nursing and Midwifery Board of Australia and the timing of their retirement to 2043 based upon the ageing of the population.

METHODS

Using data on the number of registered midwives released by the Nursing and Midwifery Board of Australia we calculated the five-year cumulative attrition rate of each five-year age group. This attrition rate was then utilized to estimate the number of midwives registered in each five-year time period from 2018 to 2043. We then estimated the number of midwives that would be registered after also accounting for stated retirement intentions.

FINDINGS

Between 2018 and 2023 the overall number of registered midwives will decline from 28,087 to 26,642. After this time there is expected to be growth in the total number, reaching 28,392 in 2028 and 55,747 in 2043. If midwives did relinquish their registration at a rate indicated in previous workforce satisfaction surveys, the overall number of registered midwives would decline to 19,422 in 2023, and remain below 2018 levels until 2038.

DISCUSSION

Due to the age distribution of the current registered midwifery workforce the imminent retirement of a large proportion of the workforce will see a decline in the number of registered midwives in the coming years. Additional retirement due to workforce dis-satisfaction may exacerbate this shortfall.

Regional variation in practitioner employment in general practices in England: a comparative analysis

Background

In recent years, UK health policy makers have responded to a GP shortage by introducing measures to support increased healthcare delivery by practitioners from a wider range of backgrounds.

Aim

To ascertain the composition of the primary care workforce in England at a time when policy changes affecting deployment of different practitioner types are being introduced.

Design and setting

This study was a comparative analysis of workforce data reported to NHS Digital by GP practices in England.

Method

Statistics are reported using practice-level data from the NHS Digital June 2019 data extract. Because of the role played by Health Education England (HEE) in training and increasing the skills of a healthcare workforce that meets the needs of each region, the analysis compares average workforce composition across the 13 HEE regions in England

Results

The workforce participation in terms of full-time equivalent of each staff group across HEE regions demonstrates regional variation. Differences persist when expressed as mean full-time equivalent per thousand patients. Despite policy changes, most workers are employed in long-established primary care roles, with only a small proportion of newer types of practitioner, such as pharmacists, paramedics, physiotherapists, and physician associates.

Conclusion

This study provides analysis of a more detailed and complete primary care workforce dataset than has previously been available in England. In describing the workforce composition at this time, the study provides a foundation for future comparative analyses of changing practitioner deployment before the introduction of primary care networks, and for evaluating outcomes and costs that may be associated with these changes.

Medical schools, primary care and family medicine: clerkship directors' perceptions of the current environment

BACKGROUND

The culture at a medical school and the positive experiences in primary care clerkships influence student specialty choice. This choice is significant if the demand for primary care physicians is to be met. The aim of this study was to examine family medicine clerkship directors' perceptions of the medical school environment.

METHODS

Data were collected as part of the 2015 Council of Academic Family Medicine Educational Research Alliance Family Medicine Clerkship Director survey. Questions asked included how clerkship directors perceived the environment of their medical school towards family medicine, has the environment towards family medicine changed between 2010 and 2015, do they take action to influence student attitudes towards family medicine and whether faculty members in other departments make negative comments about family medicine.

RESULTS

The response rate was 79.4%. While most respondents indicated the environment of their medical school has become more positive towards family medicine, a majority of clerkship directors perceived the environment to be either very much against, slightly against or indifferent towards family medicine. Nearly one-half (41.4%) of the clerkship directors were notified more than once a year that a faculty member of another department made a negative comment about family medicine. Results varied among regions of the USA and between schools located in the USA and Canada.

CONCLUSION

Family medicine clerkship directors often perceived negativity towards family medicine, a finding that may limit the effectiveness of academic health centres in their mission to better serve their community and profession.

Factors that affect general practice as a choice of medical speciality: implications for policy development

Objective This article critically appraises the range of personal, professional and social factors that affect the choice of speciality across medical students, prevocational doctors, general practice registrars and general practitioners. Methods This qualitative study applied constructs from the fields of decision theory and career theory to better understand the complex nature of choosing a speciality. In all, 47 in-depth interviews were conducted with participants at different stages of their career cycle. The data was codified and analysed using NVivo to identify key factors that influenced speciality choice. Results The research identified 77 individual findings influencing general practice as a choice of medical speciality. These were distilled into a matrix to show that factors such as money, prestige and peer interaction did not have a compelling effect, whereas clinical and academic role models, flexibility, work-life balance, scope of practice, connection with patients, training environment and practical opportunities did. Conclusion The findings indicate that the decision in relation to the choice of medical speciality is a complex cognitive process that is undertaken within a personal, social and professional context particular to each individual. What is known about the topic? Current literature aims to quantify changes in attitudes towards choice of speciality or the effect of particular variables in isolation while ignoring the complexity of this decision process and how the numerous variables compare with each other. What does this paper add? The present study is the first intergenerational research on this topic in the Australian context and the paper dismisses the role of prestige and remuneration as key drivers of choice in picking general practice as a speciality, noting that money is merely a 'hygiene factor'. What are the implications for policy makers? A policy framework outlining 10 key principles is presented to assist policy makers seeking to affect workforce outcomes by applying policy levers to influence doctors' choice of speciality.

Self-reported influence of monetary grants in the choice of a medical residency in remote or under-served areas

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effect of monetary grants on young physicians' choice of remote or rural hospital-based practice.

BACKGROUND

In late 2011, The Israeli Ministry of Health attempted to address a severe physician maldistribution, which involved severe shortages in remotely-located institutions (RLI). The policy intervention included offering monetary grants to residents who chose a residency program in a RLI.

METHODS

A total of 222 residents from various disciplines were recruited; 114 residents from RLI and 108 residents from central-located institutions (CLI), who began their residency during 2012-2014. Participants were surveyed on demographic, academic and professional data, and on considerations in the choice of residency location.

RESULTS

Residents in RLI attributed significantly more importance to the grant in their decision-making process than did residents from CLI. This effect remained significant in a multivariate model (OR 1.65, 95% CI 1.20-2.27, p = 0.002). The only parameter significantly associated with attributing importance to the grant was older age (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.00-1.19, p = 0.049).

CONCLUSION

The choice of a RLI for residency may be influenced by monetary grants. This is consistent with real-life data showing an increase in medical staffing in these areas during the program's duration. Further studies are needed to determine causality and physical practicality of such programs.

Hours worked by general practitioners and waiting times for primary care

The decline in the working hours of general practitioners (GPs) is a key factor influencing access to health care in many countries. We investigate the effect of changes in hours worked by GPs on waiting times in primary care using the Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life longitudinal survey of Australian doctors. We estimate GP fixed effects models for waiting time and use family circumstances to instrument for GP's hours worked. We find that a 10% reduction in hours worked increases average patient waiting time by 12%. Our findings highlight the importance of GPs' labor supply at the intensive margin in determining the length of time patients must wait to see their doctor.

General practice registrars' intentions for future practice: implications for rural medical workforce planning

The models of practice that general practice registrars (GPRs) envisage undertaking will affect workforce supply. The aim of this research was to determine practice intentions of current GPRs in a regional general practice training program (Coast City Country General Practice Training). Questionnaires were circulated to 220 GPRs undertaking general practice placements to determine characteristics of ideal practice models and intentions for future practice. Responses were received for 99 participants (45%). Current GPRs intend to work an average of less than eight half-day sessions/week, with male participants intending to work more hours (t(91)=3.528, P=0.001). More than one-third of this regional cohort intends to practice in metropolitan centres. Proximity to family and friends was the most important factor influencing the choice of practice location. Men ranked remuneration for work as more important (t (88)=-4.280, P<0.001) and women ranked the ability to work part-time higher (t(94)=3.697, P<0.001). Fee-for-service payment alone, or in combination with capitation, was the preferred payment system. Only 22% of Australian medical graduates intend to own their own practice compared with 52% of international medical graduates (χ²(1)=8.498, P=0.004). Future general practitioners (GPs) intend to work fewer hours than current GPs. Assumptions about lifestyle factors, practice models and possible professional roles should be carefully evaluated when developing strategies to recruit GPs and GPRs into rural practice.

What will make a difference? Assessing the impact of policy and non-policy scenarios on estimations of the future GP workforce

BACKGROUND

Health workforce planning is based on estimates of future needs for and supply of health care services. Given the pipeline time lag for the training of health professionals, inappropriate workforce planning or policies can lead to extended periods of over- or under-supply of health care providers. Often these policy interventions focus on one determinant of supply and do not incorporate other determinants such as changes in population health which impact the need for services. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of the implementation of various workforce policies on the estimated future requirements of the GP workforce, using South Australia as a case study. This is examined in terms of the impact on the workforce gap (excess or shortage), the cost of these workforce policies, and their role in addressing potential non-policy-related future scenarios.

METHODS

An integrated simulation model for the general practice workforce in South Australia was developed, which determines the supply and level of services required based on the health of the population over a projection period 2013-2033. The published model is used to assess the effects of various policy and workforce scenarios. For each policy scenario, associated costs were estimated and compared to baseline costs with a 5% discount rate applied.

RESULTS

The baseline scenario estimated an excess supply of GPs of 236 full-time equivalent (FTE) in 2013 but this surplus decreased to 28 FTE by 2033. The estimates based on single policy scenarios of role substitution and increased training positions continue the surplus, while a scenario that reduces the number of international medical graduates (IMGs) recruited estimated a move from surplus to shortage by 2033. The best-case outcome where the workforce achieves balance by 2023 and remains balanced to 2033, arose when GP participation rates (a non-policy scenario) were combined with the policy levers of increased GP training positions and reduced IMG recruitment. The cost of each policy varied, with increased role substitution and reduced IMG recruitment resulting in savings (AUD$752,946,586 and AUD$3,783,291 respectively) when compared to baseline costs. Increasing GP training costs over the projection period would cost the government an additional AUD$12,719,798.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the next 20 years, South Australia's GP workforce is predicted to remain fairly balanced. However, exogenous changes, such as increased demand for GP services may require policy intervention to address associated workforce shortfalls. The workforce model presented in this paper should be updated at regular intervals to inform the need for policy intervention.

Influences on students' career decisions concerning general practice: a focus group study

BACKGROUND

Despite concerns about recruitment to UK general practice, there has been no concerted educational intervention to address them.

AIM

To better understand how medical students' perceptions of their experiences of their undergraduate curriculum may affect choosing general practice as a career.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Qualitative study comprising focus groups of a total of 58 students from a range of medical schools across the UK.

METHOD

A range of UK medical schools students were invited by email to participate in focus groups and return a questionnaire detailing their current career choice to facilitate sampling students with varied career preferences. Students late in their studies were sampled as they were likely to be considering future careers. Focus group discussions were audiotaped, transcribed, and anonymised for both school and participant, then thematically analysed. Perceived differences in medical school culture, curriculum philosophy, design, and intent were explored.

RESULTS

Six focus groups (58 students) were convened. Some student participants' career aspirations were strongly shaped by family and home, but clinical placements remained important in confirming or refuting these choices. High-quality general practice attachments are a powerful attractor to general practice and, when they reflect authentic clinical practice, promote general practice careers. GP tutors can be powerful, positive role models. Students' comments revealed conflicting understandings about general practice.

CONCLUSION

Attracting rather than coercing students to general practice is likely to be more effective at changing their career choices. Early, high-quality, ongoing and, authentic clinical exposure promotes general practice and combats negative stereotyping. It is recommended that increasing opportunities to help students understand what it means to be a 'good GP' and how this can be achieved are created.

Retirement patterns of Australian doctors aged 65 years and older

OBJECTIVE

To investigate retirements over a 4-year period among Australian general practitioners (UPs) and specialists aged 65 years and over, and factors influencing retirement.

METHODS

Data from Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life (MABEL) for the years 2009-12 were analysed for 435 GPs and 643 specialists aged 65 years and over at the time of entry to the MABEL survey. Discrete time survival analysis was used.

RESULTS

The retirement rates were 4.1% (2009), 5.1% (2010), 4.2% (2011) and 10.4% (2012). Retirement was associated with: (1) the intention to leave medical work in 2009 and 2010; (2) working fewer hours in private consulting rooms in 2010 and 2012; (3) having lower job satisfaction in 2009 and 2011; (4) being older in 2009; (5) working fewer hours in a public hospital in 2012; and (6) working fewer hours in a private hospital in 2010. Doctors who intended to reduce their working hours were less likely to retire in 2009.

CONCLUSIONS

Strategies to support doctors at the late career stage to provide their valued contributions to the medical workforce for as long as possible may include increasing job satisfaction and addressing barriers to reducing work hours.

Physicians' intention to leave direct patient care: an integrative review

BACKGROUND

In light of the growing shortage of physicians worldwide, the problem of physicians who intend to leave direct patient care has become more acute, particularly in terms of quality of care and health-care costs.

METHODS

A literature search was carried out following Cooper's five-stage model for conducting an integrative literature review. Database searches were made in MEDLINE, PsycINFO and Web of Science in May 2014.

RESULTS

A total of 17 studies from five countries were identified and the study results synthesized. Measures and percentages of physicians' intention to leave varied between the studies. Variables associated with intention to leave were demographics, with age- and gender-specific findings, family or personal domain, working time and psychosocial working conditions, job-related well-being and other career-related aspects. Gender differences were identified in several risk clusters. Factors such as long working hours and work-family conflict were particularly relevant for female physicians' intention to leave.

CONCLUSIONS

Health-care managers and policy-makers should take action to improve physicians' working hours and psychosocial working conditions in order to prevent a high rate of intention to leave and limit the number of physicians actually leaving direct patient care. Further research is needed on gender-specific needs in the workplace, the connection between intention to leave and actually leaving and measures of intention to leave as well as using qualitative methods to gain a deeper understanding and developing validated questionnaires.

Ireland's medical brain drain: migration intentions of Irish medical students

BACKGROUND

To provide the optimum level of healthcare, it is important that the supply of well-trained doctors meets the demand. However, despite many initiatives, Ireland continues to have a shortfall of physicians, which has been projected to persist. Our study aimed to investigate the migration intentions of Irish medical students and identify the factors that influence their decisions in order to design appropriate interventions to sustain the supply of trained doctors in order to maintain a viable medical system.

METHODS

An online cross-sectional survey was undertaken of all Irish medical students studying in the Republic of Ireland. The survey included nominal, ordinal, and scale items to determine migration intentions, factors influencing their decisions, and understanding of the Irish healthcare system.

RESULTS

A total of 2 273 medical students responded (37% response rate), of whom 1 519 were classified as Irish medical students (having completed secondary school in Ireland). Of these, 88% indicated they were either definitely migrating or contemplating migrating following graduation or completion of the pre-registration intern year. Forty percent expressed an intention of returning to Ireland within 5 years. The factors most influencing their decision to leave were career opportunities (85%), working conditions (83%), and lifestyle (80%).

CONCLUSION

The migration intentions expressed in this study predict an immediate and severe threat to the sustainability of the Irish healthcare service. Urgent interventions such as providing information about career options and specialty training pathways are required. These must begin in the undergraduate phase and continue in postgraduate training and are needed to retain medical school graduates.

The medical workforce in 2025: what's in the numbers?

Key trends in Australian medical workforce supply include increasing overall supply levels and an increasing number of medical graduates, but also reduced workforce effort and a large cohort of doctors approaching traditional retirement age. Although prevocational and vocational training programs are beginning to expand, there are significant bottlenecks in the postgraduate training pathway for the sizeable cohorts of new graduates. The primary health care workforce needs continued development, including team-based approaches to care and increased use of technology. Increasing our understanding of system-level and individual-level determinants of doctors' choices and implementing innovative strategies to accommodate the increasingly diverse work patterns of doctors are critical to ensuring that in future there are sufficient doctors, with the right skills, in the right places.

A qualitative study on working experience of rural doctors in malappuram district of kerala, India

Background:

Improving the working conditions of rural doctors is an important issue to increase the quality of health services to target groups.

Objectives:

To assess the working experience of rural doctors at primary health care level.

Materials and Methods:

This qualitative study was conducted among 30 medical officers from 21 primary health centers in Malappuram district of Kerala, India. In-depth interview was conducted, and content analysis was performed with the identification of themes based on the responses obtained.

Results:

There were 19 males and 11 females belonged to 25 to 55 years age group. About 70% (21) of them were graduates with MBBS qualification, and the rest were postgraduates. About 2/3^rd of them (20) had experience of less than 5 years. They expressed difficulty in managing the work in stipulated time period. However, this had never affected their OP management in anyway. They told that higher authorities were supportive, but they faced some opposition from the public in implementation of national program. Few opined that the training received was grossly insufficient in running the administrative affairs of the health center. Most of them satisfied with physical infrastructure, but manpower including medical officers and supporting staff were not sufficient. Some opined that the age of retirement is too early and should be increased. They participated in Continuing Medical Education, but expressed that it's content should suit to primary health care level.

Conclusion:

This study highlighted their concern to patient care and time, field work, administrative work, infrastructure, professional development, and future prospects. Further large scale evaluation studies will explore the situational analysis of it.

The impact of training and working conditions on junior doctors' intention to leave clinical practice

BACKGROUND

The shortage of physicians is an evolving problem throughout the world. In this study we aimed to identify to what extent junior doctors' training and working conditions determine their intention to leave clinical practice after residency training.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study was conducted in 557 junior doctors undergoing residency training in German hospitals. Self-reported specialty training conditions, working conditions and intention to leave clinical practice were measured over three time points. Scales covering training conditions were assessed by structured residency training, professional support, and dealing with lack of knowledge; working conditions were evaluated by work overload, job autonomy and social support, based on the Demand-Control-Support model. Multivariate ordinal logistic regression analyses with random intercept for longitudinal data were applied to determine the odds ratio of having a higher level of intention to leave clinical practice.

RESULTS

In the models that considered training and working conditions separately to predict intention to leave clinical practice we found significant baseline effects and change effects. After modelling training and working conditions simultaneously, we found evidence that the change effect of job autonomy (OR 0.77, p = .005) was associated with intention to leave clinical practice, whereas for the training conditions, only the baseline effects of structured residency training (OR 0.74, p = .017) and dealing with lack of knowledge (OR 0.74, p = .026) predicted intention to leave clinical practice.

CONCLUSIONS

Junior doctors undergoing specialty training experience high workload in hospital practice and intense requirements in terms of specialty training. Our study indicates that simultaneously improving working conditions over time and establishing a high standard of specialty training conditions may prevent junior doctors from considering leaving clinical practice after residency training.

The number of Japanese radiologic technologists will be increased in 40 years

It is essential to predict the long-term supply and demand for the number of radiologic technologists as medical resources. However, it is difficult to predict the number of Japanese radiologic technologists due to complex and intertwining factors. Our purpose in this study was to predict the future number of radiologic technologists using the concept of system dynamics (SD), and to clarify the effects of relevant factors. In order to estimate the number of Japanese radiologic technologists, we constructed a flow diagram using the concept of SD. We simulated the number of radiologic technologists for the following 4 cases: maintaining the status quo, a change in the pass rate for the national examination, a change in the post-graduate employment rate, and a change in the rate of continuing education. The result for the predicted number of radiologic technologists was 50,509 in 20 years, which is 4,394 (9.5%) more than the present number, and 50,166 in 40 years, which is 4,051 (8.8%) more than the present number. For the factors influencing the number of technologists, the influence of the pass rate on the national examination and that of the rate for post-graduate employment was larger than that of the rate of continuing education in graduate school. The number of Japanese radiologic technologists will increase until 2033 and decrease until 2042, and it does not change after 2042 in case of maintaining the status quo. Implementing the concept of SD allowed us easily to clarify the factors influencing the predicted number of radiologic technologists.

CAM practitioners in the Australian health workforce: an underutilized resource

BACKGROUND

CAM practitioners are a valuable but underutilizes resource in Australian health care. Despite increasing public support for complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) little is known about the CAM workforce. Apart from the registered professions of chiropractic, osteopathy and Chinese medicine, accurate information about the number of CAM practitioners in the workforce has been difficult to obtain. It appears that many non-registered CAM practitioners, although highly qualified, are not working to their full capacity.

DISCUSSION

Increasing public endorsement of CAM stands in contrast to the negative attitude toward the CAM workforce by some members of the medical and other health professions and by government policy makers. The marginalisation of the CAM workforce is evident in prejudicial attitudes held by some members of the medical and other health professions and its exclusion from government policy making. Inconsistent educational standards has meant that non-registered CAM practitioners, including highly qualified and competent ones, are frequently overlooked. Legitimising their contribution to the health workforce could alleviate workforce shortages and provide opportunities for redesigned job roles and new multidisciplinary teams. Priorities for better utilisation of the CAM workforce include establishing a guaranteed minimum education standard for more CAM occupation groups through national registration, providing interprofessional education that includes CAM practitioners, developing courses to upgrade CAM practitioners' professional skills in areas of indentified need, and increasing support for CAM research.

SUMMARY

Marginalisation of the CAM workforce has disadvantaged those qualified and competent CAM practitioners who practise evidence-informed medicine on the basis of many years of university training. Legitimising and expanding the important contribution of CAM practitioners could alleviate projected health workforce shortages, particularly for the prevention and management of chronic health conditions and for health promotion.

Potential of pharmacists to help reduce the burden of poorly managed cardiovascular risk

INTRODUCTION

Rural areas require better use of existing health professionals to ensure capacity to deliver improved cardiovascular outcomes. Community pharmacists (CPs) are accessible to most communities and can potentially undertake expanded roles in prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD).

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to establish frequency of contact with general practitioners (GPs) and CPs by patients at high risk of CVD or with inadequately controlled CVD risk factors.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Population survey using randomly selected individuals from the Wimmera region electoral roll and incorporating a physical health check and self-administered health questionnaire. Overall, 1500 were invited to participate.

RESULTS

The participation rate was 51% when ineligible individuals were excluded. Nine out of 10 participants visited one or both types of practitioner in the previous 12 months. Substantially more participants visited GPs compared with CPs (88.5% versus 66.8%). With the exception of excess alcohol intake, the median number of opportunities to intervene for every inadequately controlled CVD risk factor and among high risk patient groups at least doubled for the professions combined when compared with GP visits alone.

CONCLUSION

Opportunities exist to intervene more frequently with target groups by engaging CPs more effectively but would require a significant attitude shift towards CPs. Mechanisms for greater pharmacist integration into primary care teams should be investigated.

Understanding adolescent and young adult use of family physician services: a cross-sectional analysis of the Canadian Community Health Survey

Background

Primary health care is known to have positive effects on population health and may reduce at-risk behavior and health problems in adolescence. Yet little is known about the factors that are associated with adolescent and young adult utilization of family physician services. It is critical to determine the factors associated with utilization to inform effective primary health care policy. We address this gap in the primary health care literature by examining three issues concerning adolescent and young adult family physician use: inequity; the unique developmental stage of adolescence; and the distinction between utilization (users versus non-users) and intensity (high users versus low users).

Methods

We conducted nested logistic regressions for two outcomes: utilization and intensity of family physician services for early adolescence, middle adolescence, and young adulthood using the 2005 Canadian Community Health Survey.

Results

Chronic conditions were associated with utilization in early and middle adolescence and intensity in all age groups. Respondents from Quebec had lower odds of utilization. Those without a regular medical doctor had much lower odds of being users. The factors associated with use in early and middle adolescence were in keeping with parental involvement while the factors in young adulthood show the emerging independence of this group.

Conclusions

We highlight key messages not known previously for adolescent and young adult use of family physician services. There is inequity concerning regional variation and for those who do not have a regular medical doctor. There is variation in factors associated with family physician services across the three age groups of adolescence. Health care and health care policies aimed at younger adolescents must consider that parents are still the primary decision-maker while older adolescents are more autonomous. There is variation in the factors associated with the two outcomes of utilization and intensity of services. Factors associated with utilization must be understood when considering the equitability of access to primary health care while factors associated with intensity must be understood when considering appropriate use of resources. The understanding gained from this study can inform health care policy that is responsive to the critical developmental stage of adolescence and young adulthood.

Nature of association between rural background and practice location: a comparison of general practitioners and specialists

BACKGROUND

Rural and remote areas are characterised by a shortage of medical practitioners. Rural background has been shown to be a significant factor associated with medical graduates' intentions and decisions to practise within a rural area, though most studies have only used simple definitions of rural background and not previously looked at specialists. This paper aims to investigate in detail the nature of the association between rural background and practice location of Australian general practitioners (GPs) and specialists

METHODS

Data for 3156 GPs and 2425 specialists were obtained from the Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life (MABEL) study. Data on the number of childhood years resident in a rural location and population size of their rural childhood location were matched against current practice location. Logistic regression modelling was used to calculate adjusted associations between doctors in rural practice and rural background, sex and age.

RESULTS

GPs with at least 6 years of their childhood spent in a rural area were significantly more likely than those with 0-5 years in a rural area to be practising in a rural location (OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.69-3.08), whilst only specialists with at least 11 years rural background were significantly more likely to be practising in a rural location (OR 2.27, 95% CI 1.77-2.91). However, for doctors with a rural background, the size of the community that they grew up in was not significantly associated with the size of the community in which they currently practise. Both female GPs and female specialists are similarly much less likely to be practising in a rural location compared with males (GPs: OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.45-0.62).

CONCLUSIONS

This study elucidates the association between rural background and rural practice for both GPs and specialists. It follows that increased take-up of rural practice by new graduates requires an increased selection of students with strong rural backgrounds. However, given the considerable under-representation of rural background students in medical schools and the reluctance of females to practise in rural areas, the selection of rural background students is only part of the solution to increasing the supply of rural doctors.

Current status of therapeutic drug monitoring in Australia and New Zealand: a need for improved assay evaluation, best practice guidelines, and professional development

The measurement of drug concentrations, for clinical purposes, occurs in many diagnostic laboratories throughout Australia and New Zealand. However, the provision of a comprehensive therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) service requires the additional elements of pre- and postanalytical advice to ensure that concentrations reported are meaningful, interpretable, and clinically applicable to the individual patient. The aim of this project was to assess the status of TDM services in Australia and New Zealand. A range of professions involved in key aspects of TDM was surveyed by questionnaire in late 2007. Information gathered included: the list of drugs assayed; analytical methods used; interpretation services offered; interpretative methods used; and further monitoring advice provided. Fifty-seven responses were received, of which 42% were from hospitals (public and/or private); 11% a hospital (public and/or private) and pathology provider; and 47% a pathology provider only (public and/or private). Results showed that TDM is applied to a large number of different drugs. Poorly performing assay methods were used in some cases, even when published guidelines recommended alternative practices. Although there was a wide array of assays available, the evidence suggested a need for better selection of assay methods. In addition, only limited advice and/or interpretation of results was offered. Of concern, less than 50% of those providing advice on aminoglycoside dosing in adults used pharmacokinetic tools with six of 37 (16.2%) respondents using Bayesian pharmacokinetic tools, the method recommended in the Australian Therapeutic Guidelines: Antibiotic. In conclusion, the survey highlighted deficiencies in the provision of TDM services, in particular assay method selection and both quality and quantity of postanalytical advice. A range of recommendations, some of which may have international implications, are discussed. There is a need to include measures of impact on clinical decision-making when assessing assay methodologies. Best practice guidelines and professional standards of practice in TDM are needed, supported by an active program of professional development to ensure the benefits of TDM are realized. This will require significant partnerships between the various professions involved.

Determinants of choosing a career in family medicine

BACKGROUND

Student choice is an important determinant of the distribution of specialties of practising physicians in many countries. Understanding characteristics at entry into medical school that are associated with the choice of residency in family medicine can assist medical schools in admitting an appropriate mix of students to serve the health care needs of their regions.

METHODS

From 2002 to 2004, we collected data from students in 15 classes at 8 of 16 Canadian medical schools at entry. Surveys included questions on career choice, attitudes to practice and socio-demographic characteristics. We followed students prospectively with these data linked to their residency choice. We used multiple logistic regression analysis to identify entry characteristics that predicted a student's ultimate career choice in family medicine.

RESULTS

Of 1941 eligible students in the participating classes, 1542 (79.4%) contributed data to the final analyses. The following 11 entry variables predicted whether a student named family medicine as his or her top residency choice: being older, being engaged or in a long-term relationship, not having parents with postgraduate university education nor having family or close friends practicing medicine, having undertaken voluntary work in a developing nation, not volunteering with elderly people, desire for varied scope of practice, a societal orientation, a lower interest in research, desire for short postgraduate training, and lower preference for medical versus social problems.

INTERPRETATION

Demographic and attitudinal characteristics at entry into medical school predicted whether students chose a career in family medicine.

A gender-based analysis of work patterns, fatigue, and work/life balance among physicians in postgraduate training

PURPOSE

To document fatigue in New Zealand junior doctors in hospital-based clinical training positions and identify work patterns associated with work/life balance difficulties. This workforce has had a duty limitation of 72 hours/week since 1985. The authors chose a gender-based analytical approach because of the increasing proportion of female medical graduates.

METHOD

The authors mailed a confidential questionnaire to all 2,154 eligible junior doctors in 2003. The 1,412 respondents were working > or = 40 hours/week (complete questionnaires from 1,366: response rate: 63%; 49% women). For each participant, the authors calculated a multidimensional fatigue risk score based on sleep and work patterns.

RESULTS

Women were more likely to report never/rarely getting enough sleep (P < .05), never/rarely waking refreshed (P < .001), and excessive sleepiness (P < .05) and were less likely to live with children up to 12 years old (P < .001). Fatigue risk scores differed by specialty but not by gender.Fatigue risk scores in the highest tertile were an independent risk factor for reporting problems in social life (odds ratio: 3.83; 95% CI: 2.79-5.28), home life (3.37; 2.43-4.67), personal relationships (2.12; 1.57-2.86), and other commitments (3.06; 2.23-4.19).Qualitative analyses indicated a common desire among men and women for better work/life balance and for part-time work, particularly in relation to parenthood.

CONCLUSIONS

Limitation of duty hours alone is insufficient to manage fatigue risk and difficulties in maintaining work/life balance. These findings have implications for schedule design, professional training, and workforce planning.

An evaluation of Australian pharmacist's attitudes on expanding their prescribing role

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the views of Australian pharmacists on expanded pharmacist prescribing roles and identify important drivers and barriers to its implementation. Setting Pharmacists in Australia.

METHOD

Data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire distributed nationally to a random sample of pharmacists either directly, or in the case of one state, via community pharmacies. One-way ANOVA and ϰ(2) testing were used to identify significant associations. Factor analysis was conducted to pool variables and the derived factors were subjected to regression analysis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Perceptions of Australian pharmacists on expanded prescribing and the relationships between variables derived.

RESULTS

A total of 2592 questionnaires were distributed and a response rate of 40.4% was achieved (n = 1049). Of the respondents 83.9% strongly agreed/agreed to an expanded prescribing role for pharmacists and 97.1% reported they would need further training. Of the respondents 896 agreed that pharmacists should engage in supplementary, independent prescribing or both. Of these 69.1% preferred only supplementary prescribing, 3.3% independent prescribing and 27.4% both models. Both models were found to be positive predictors of expanding pharmaceutical services through prescribing (P < 0.001) with supplementary prescribing showing a stronger association (β = 0.52 vs. β = 0.18). Pharmacists' opinion based on their current perceptions of their clients was an important predictor in expanding pharmaceutical services through prescribing (P = 0.005). Inadequate training in patient assessment, diagnosis and monitoring were the strongest barriers to expanded pharmacist prescribing (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of Australian pharmacists supported an expanded pharmacist prescribing role. Support for supplementary was stronger than independent prescribing. Pharmacists acknowledged that they would need further training to perform such roles.

Medical specialty prestige and lifestyle preferences for medical students

In the context of doctor shortages and mal-distributions in many Western countries, prestige and lifestyle friendliness have emerged as significant factors for medical students when they choose a medical specialty. In this study, we surveyed two samples of Australian medical students and had them rank 19 medical specialties for prestige (N = 530) and lifestyle friendliness (N = 644). The prestige rankings were generally consistent with previous ratings by physicians, lay people and advanced medical students, with surgery, internal, and intensive care medicine ranking the highest, and public health, occupational, and non-specialist hospital medicine ranking lowest. This suggests that medical students have incorporated prevailing prestige perceptions of practicing doctors and the community. Lifestyle rankings were markedly different from prestige rankings, where dermatology, general practice, and public health medicine were ranked the most lifestyle friendly, and surgery, obstetrics/gynaecology and intensive care were ranked least friendly. Student lifestyle rankings differed from physician and author-generated rankings, indicating that student preferences should be considered rather than relying on ratings created by others. Few differences were found for gender or year of study, signifying perceptions of prestige and lifestyle friendliness were consistent across the students sampled. Having access to and understanding these rankings will assist career counsellors to aid student and junior doctor decision-making and aid workforce planners to address gaps in medical specialty health services.

The physician workforce in Kuwait to the year 2020

The study addresses the supply of and demand for physicians in Kuwait in the light of the emerging variables such as increasing population, economic growth, changes in healthcare strategies, and expansion of healthcare facilities. The objective of the study was to project the future demand for physicians in Kuwait for the years 2007-2020 based on the period 1994-2006. Population projections were derived using the average annual natural increase rate of the 1994-2006 populations. The future demand for physicians was predicted using the average physician to population ratio for the years 1994-2006. The average annual growth rate of indigenous physicians during the period 1994-2006 was 4.08% compared to 2.83% for non-native expatriot physicians. There is a gap between the numbers of native and foreign physicians. In 2006, native physicians constituted 36.6% of the physician workforce in Kuwait. The disparity between the total number of physicians needed and the number of native physicians is expected to decline from 62.14% in 2007 to 48.1% in 2020. The supply of indigenous physicians should be increased. Without shared culture and language, it will be difficult to provide effective and efficient medical care to the people of Kuwait. This can be achieved through an improvement in recruitment and retention of indigenous physicians and medical students. There is also a need for establishment of a standing advisory committee for continuous monitoring of physician workforce planning and policy strategies in Kuwait.

The Australian Labor Market for Medical Practitioners and Nurses: Training, Migration and Policy Issues

Australia has a long history of migration of medical practitioners and nurses. This paper will provide an overview of the current situation regarding the supply of and demand for doctors and nurses and Australia's immigration policies and regulatory framework. Trends in training numbers and the relationship to demand will be analyzed and it will be shown that a continuation of widespread shortages can be expected.

In recent years, Australia has been the forerunner, among Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, in its overt policy initiatives to attract overseas-trained doctors. It has shown little concern for the negative consequences on some sending countries that lose their doctors and nurses. Also, it has not entered into the spirit of international attempts to try to ameliorate the potential effects of developing-to-developed country health professional migration and trade, where there are negative consequences for the sending country. It will be argued that Australia could become a better global “citizen.”

The "medicine in Australia: balancing employment and life (MABEL)" longitudinal survey--protocol and baseline data for a prospective cohort study of Australian doctors' workforce participation

BACKGROUND

While there is considerable research on medical workforce supply trends, there is little research examining the determinants of labour supply decisions for the medical workforce. The "Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life (MABEL)" study investigates workforce participation patterns and their determinants using a longitudinal survey of Australian doctors. It aims to generate evidence to support developing effective policy responses to workforce issues such as shortages and maldistribution. This paper describes the study protocol and baseline cohort, including an analysis of response rates and response bias.

METHODS/DESIGN

MABEL is a prospective cohort study. All Australian doctors undertaking clinical work in 2008 (n = 54,750) were invited to participate, and annual waves of data collections will be undertaken until at least 2011. Data are collected by paper or optional online version of a questionnaire, with content tailored to four sub-groups of clinicians: general practitioners, specialists, specialists in training, and hospital non-specialists. In the baseline wave, data were collected on: job satisfaction, attitudes to work and intentions to quit or change hours worked; a discrete choice experiment examining preferences and trade-offs for different types of jobs; work setting; workload; finances; geographic location; demographics; and family circumstances.

DISCUSSION

The baseline cohort includes 10,498 Australian doctors, representing an overall response rate of 19.36%. This includes 3,906 general practitioners, 4,596 specialists, 1,072 specialists in training, and 924 hospital non-specialists. Respondents were more likely to be younger, female, and to come from non-metropolitan areas, the latter partly reflecting the effect of a financial incentive on response for doctors in remote and rural areas. Specialists and specialists in training were more likely to respond, whilst hospital non-specialists were less likely to respond. The distribution of hours worked was similar between respondents and data from national medical labour force statistics. The MABEL survey provides a large, representative cohort of Australian doctors. It enables investigation of the determinants of doctors' decisions about how much, where and in what circumstances they practice, and of changes in these over time. MABEL is intended to provide an important resource for policy makers and other stakeholders in the Australian medical workforce.

Practitioner-client relationships in integrative medicine clinics in Australia: a contemporary social phenomenon

OBJECTIVES

The increasing use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) in developed countries has been attributed more to contemporary cultural trends than to inherent problems in mainstream medicine. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of post-modern values on relationships between practitioners and clients in integrative medicine (IM) clinics in Australia.

DESIGN

This research used hermeneutic phenomenology to uncover experiences of practitioner-client relationships in IM and the meanings clients and practitioners attached to these relationships. Data were collected using cumulative case studies, focus groups and key informant interviews. Data analysis consisted of reading and re-reading texts derived from interview transcripts and field notes and constantly comparing texts to identify meanings and patterns. Themes extracted from the data set were continually refined, discarded and elaborated until meta-themes emerged.

SETTING

Australian IM clinics where general medical practitioners and CAM practitioners were co-located.

RESULTS

Post-modern values were evident in practitioner-client relationships in Australian IM clinics and were manifested in two ways. (1) Clients did not bring an expectation that they would receive prescriptive treatment regimens. They regarded consultations as opportunities for obtaining information or advice, or for monitoring their health. (2) Practitioners valued clients' knowledge and judgments and respected clients' right to choose and direct their health care.

CONCLUSIONS

In the IM clinics in this research, the traditional role of the practitioner as sole possessor of expertise had changed. Practitioners had become one among a number of resources that informed clients used when designing personal health care plans or negotiating health care with practitioners.

Healthcare reform in Lithuania: Evaluation of changes in human resources and infrastructure

Aims: To evaluate the change in the healthcare indicators in major and minor counties of Lithuania following the healthcare reforms of 2002—5. Methods: The healthcare indicators were defined in the strategy for restructuring the healthcare settings. There were eight supply indicators (related to human resources and infrastructure). Analysis was performed comparing de facto data of major and minor counties with planned indicators. Results: 1) Human resources for health. The planned increase in the number of family physicians was achieved in both subgroups of counties, as was the percentage of population serviced by family physicians. The number of specialist physicians decreased in major counties while in minor counties it increased. The number of nurses was planned to decrease, however it increased. 2) Infrastructure. The number of beds in general and specialized hospitals as well as the number of obstetric beds decreased as planned. The increase in the number of day care and day surgery beds and in the number of nursing and long-term care beds was also achieved. Conclusions: During the first stage of restructuring, two out of four indicators related to the human resources met the goals. During the same period all four indicators related to the infrastructure met the goals. Two indicators have deviated from the plans or shifted in the opposite direction. This suggests that planning of these indicators should be reconsidered in further plans and strategies.

Workforce education issues for international medical graduate specialists in anaesthesia

International medical graduate (IMG) specialists in anaesthesia need education to be part of the assessment process for pre-registration college fellowship. Fellowship of the anaesthetic college is required in Australia for registration as a specialist in this field. Marked differences exist between local trainees and IMG specialists in terms of training, stakes of the exam and isolation of practice. We have examined the reasons for the low pass rate for IMG specialists compared to the local trainees in the Australian and New Zealand College of Anaesthetists (ANZCA) final fellowship examinations. We also offer an IMG specialists’ view of this perceived problem. It highlights their difficulties in obtaining adequate supervision and education. What is known about the topic?There has been a worldwide shortage of doctors over the last decade. In Australia this shortage has been attributed to government policy in the 1990s limiting the number of medical school places. Other factors that may have contributed to this shortage are changes in the practice of medicine, increasing specialisation, growth in population and patterns of population settlement at the coastal fringes of Australia. The use of international medical graduates and reliance on them is associated with several problems and challenges. A key factor relates to their performance at a standard acceptable to the country. What does the paper add?This paper offers an examination of the issues that present to IMG specialists located at rural and remote areas of Australia. The global aim of this study is to understand the workforce education issues that present to IMG specialists as a basis for supporting this group, having migrated to Australia, to better prepare for assessment of their practice in this country. Results of a survey of IMG specialists in Anaesthesia are included to contribute to an overall view. It highlights their understanding of the issues that present when preparing for specialist assessments. What are the implications for practitioners?This information will be useful for policy practitioners who determine critical elements that influence workforce planning and education support. Decision makers will be able to make more informed decisions on the need to integrate education into planning for workforce efficiencies. There are currently no published data explaining why the pass rate for IMG specialist in anaesthesia is so different from local trainees and this paper also offers a viewpoint of present issues from those who are attempting these examinations.

Factors influencing rural versus metropolitan work choices for emergency physicians

OBJECTIVES

To survey Fellows of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine (FACEM) on how a range of factors influenced their decision to accept their most recent position. To compare this information between rural and metropolitan FACEM.

METHODS

Analytical cross-sectional survey of FACEM. Sections included baseline demographics and a range of questions regarding the presence, absence and influence of 14 professional and 12 personal/external factors on the decision to accept their current position.

RESULTS

Questionnaires were returned by 498 (61.9%) of 805 FACEM. Eighty-seven (18.4%) were currently employed in rural areas. Rural FACEM were more likely to be male (odds ratio 2.0 [95% CI 1.1-3.9]) and to have worked for >12 months as a registrar in a rural hospital (odds ratio 4.5 [95% CI 2.2-9.1]). Negative influences for FACEM accepting rural positions included lack of access to continuing education, less acceptable on-call arrangements, fewer employment opportunities for their partner and less educational opportunities for their children. Positive influences included acceptable remuneration, desirable lifestyle, a higher indigenous caseload and more affordable housing.

CONCLUSIONS

The influence of different types of factors appears to differ between rural and metropolitan FACEM and this information might assist in the formulation of strategies aimed at increasing the rural workforce.

Ageing medical workforce in Australia--where will the medical educators come from?

BACKGROUND

As the general practitioner and specialist medical workforce ages there is likely to be a large number of retirees in the near future. However, few Australian studies have specifically examined medical practitioner retirement and projected retirement patterns, and the subsequent impact this may have on training future health care professionals.

METHODS

Extracts from the Australian Medicare database and Medical Labour Force Surveys are used to examine trends in attrition of general medical practitioners and specialists over the age of 45 years from the workforce and to predict their rate of retirement to 2025.

RESULTS

The general medical practitioner workforce has aged significantly (p<0.05). Between the years 2000 and 2025, it was projected that 43% of the year 2000 general practitioner workforce and 56% of the specialist workforce would have retired.

CONCLUSION

The ageing of the baby boomer and older cohorts of the general practitioner and specialist workforce will lead to a significant number of retirements over the next 20 years. Increasing the numbers of students and new medical schools has been heralded as a means of alleviating service shortages from about 2015 onwards; however, the retirement of a large proportion of experienced health care professionals may lead to shortages of educators for these students.

The index of rural access: an innovative integrated approach for measuring primary care access

BACKGROUND

The problem of access to health care is of growing concern for rural and remote populations. Many Australian rural health funding programs currently use simplistic rurality or remoteness classifications as proxy measures of access. This paper outlines the development of an alternative method for the measurement of access to primary care, based on combining the three key access elements of spatial accessibility (availability and proximity), population health needs and mobility.

METHODS

The recently developed two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method provides a basis for measuring primary care access in rural populations. In this paper, a number of improvements are added to the 2SFCA method in order to overcome limitations associated with its current restriction to a single catchment size and the omission of any distance decay function. Additionally, small-area measures for the two additional elements, health needs and mobility are developed. By utilising this improved 2SFCA method, the three access elements are integrated into a single measure of access. This index has been developed within the state of Victoria, Australia.

RESULTS

The resultant index, the Index of Rural Access, provides a more sensitive and appropriate measure of access compared to existing classifications which currently underpin policy measures designed to overcome problems of limited access to health services. The most powerful aspect of this new index is its ability to identify access differences within rural populations at a much finer geographical scale. This index highlights that many rural areas of Victoria have been incorrectly classified by existing measures as homogenous in regards to their access.

CONCLUSION

The Index of Rural Access provides the first truly integrated index of access to primary care. This new index can be used to better target the distribution of limited government health care funding allocated to address problems of poor access to primary health care services in rural areas.