Risk factors for fatal and nonfatal road crashes in iran

Risk Factors for Road Traffic Injury-Related Mortality in Iran; a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Introduction

Gathering information regarding the risk factors of mortality and disability due to road traffic injuries can provide evidence for adopting effective interventions to reduce the burden of the injury. Therefore, the present study intends to identify the most important risk factors of road accident-related mortality in Iran by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Methods

Search was done in English and Persian electronic databases, for articles published until the end of 2020. Cross-sectional, cohort and case-control studies were included. Risk factors were divided into age and sex, road related factors, exceeding speed limit, road user behaviors, vehicle related factors, weather condition, and light condition. Data were reported as adjusted odds ratio (OR) of death with 95% confidence interval (95% CI).

Results

20 studies were included (2,682,434 traffic accident victims and 23,272 deaths; mortality rate=1.28%). The risk of death in road traffic injuries in men was 1.66 times higher than women (OR = 1.66; 95% CI: 1.03, 2.68) and with each year increase in age, the risk increased by 1% (OR = 0.01; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.01). In addition, accident in urban streets (OR = 1.76; 95% CI: 1.08, 2.88), roadway defects (OR = 2.15, 95% CI: 1.59, 2.91), and not driving on a flat and straight road (OR = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.14, 2.24) were the most important road-related risk factors for mortality. Exceeding the speed limit was another risk factor of death (OR = 3.16; 95% CI: 2.83, 3.54). However, regarding exceeding safe speed, only three studies have been included, which greatly reduces the power of analysis. Not maintaining focus on the road (OR = 2.99; 95% CI: 1.49, 6.04), not fastening seatbelt (OR = 3.11; 95% CI: 1.08, 8.91), and reckless overtaking (OR = 4.04; 95% CI: 3.34, 4.89) were independent road user-related risk factors for mortality. Risk of pedestrian mortality in comparison with drivers and passengers is 2.07 times higher (OR = 2.07; 95% CI: 1.53, 2.58). In addition, risk of death in accidents occurring during daylight hours (OR = 0.26; 95% CI: 0.18, 0.37) is lower than that of other hours. No significant relationship was present between mortality and vehicle types (four-wheeled vehicle: OR = 0.99; 95% CI: 0.050, 1.97; two-wheeled vehicle: OR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.48, 1.16). In the case of vehicle-related factors, only 2 studies were included, which also dealt only with the type of vehicle (two-wheeled/four-wheeled). Vehicle-related factors such as the car model, its safety rating, and safety standards were not mentioned in any study.

Conclusion

Low to very low-level evidence shows that there is a significant relationship between factors related to age, sex, road, road user, exceeding the speed limit, and light condition with the mortality of traffic accident victims. However, all studies included in the present study were retrospectively designed and the analyses were not adjusted for most of the key potential confounders. Therefore, it seems that despite years of effort by researchers in the field of traffic accidents in Iran, there is still no comprehensive and reliable picture of the most important risk factors for road accident mortalities in Iran.

Development, and Internal, and External Validation of a Scoring System to Predict 30-Day Mortality after Having a Traffic Accident Traveling by Private Car or Van: An Analysis of 164,790 Subjects and 79,664 Accidents

Predictive factors for fatal traffic accidents have been determined, but not addressed collectively through a predictive model to help determine the probability of mortality and thereby ascertain key points for intervening and decreasing that probability. Data on all road traffic accidents with victims involving a private car or van occurring in Spain in 2015 (164,790 subjects and 79,664 accidents) were analyzed, evaluating 30-day mortality following the accident. As candidate predictors of mortality, variables associated with the accident (weekend, time, number of vehicles, road, brightness, and weather) associated with the vehicle (type and age of vehicle, and other types of vehicles in the accident) and associated with individuals (gender, age, seat belt, and position in the vehicle) were examined. The sample was divided into two groups. In one group, a logistic regression model adapted to a points system was constructed and internally validated, and in the other group the model was externally validated. The points system obtained good discrimination and calibration in both the internal and the external validation. Consequently, a simple tool is available to determine the risk of mortality following a traffic accident, which could be validated in other countries.

A copula-based approach for jointly modeling crash severity and number of vehicles involved in express bus crashes on expressways considering temporal stability of data

The consequences of crashes, including injury, loss of lives, and damage to properties, are further worsened when buses plying expressways are involved in the crash. Previous studies have separately analyzed crash severity in terms of monetary cost, injuries and loss of lives, and the size of crashes in terms of the number of vehicles involved. However, as both outcome variables are correlated, it is imperative to perform a combined analysis using an appropriate econometric model to achieve a better model fit. This study contributes to the literature by jointly exploring the factors influencing the severity and size of express bus-involved crashes that occur on expressways and characterizes the dependence between both outcome variables by employing a more plausible copula regression framework. Likelihood ratio tests were also conducted to investigate the temporal stability of the factors that affect both crash severity and size. Based on the goodness-of-fit statistics, the Frank copula model proved superior to the independent ordered probit model. The estimate of the underlying dependence between the outcome variables provided a better comprehension of the correlation between them. Temporal instability was detected for the individual parameters in the models and is attributed to the changing driving behavior due to the heightened road safety campaigns. The results suggest that traffic exposure measures are significantly associated with a higher propensity of observing increased bus crash severity and size. Insights into the factors influencing the size and severity of express bus crashes are discussed, and appropriate engineering, enforcement, and education-related countermeasures are proposed.

Determinants of fatal car accident risk in Finote Selam town, Northwest Ethiopia

Background

In the globe, 1.3 million deaths and around 50 million non-fatal injuries were reported. From all deaths, 90% occur in developing countries. Ethiopia is considered as one of the worst countries in the globe where road traffic accident causes a lot of fatalities and injuries of road users every year. The main objective of the study was to identify the main predictors of fatal car accident.

Methods

The retrospective research design was applied. 255 records were taken from Finote Selam traffic police office, northwest part of Ethiopia from September 2009 to January 2018. The statistical analysis was performed by using SPSS version 23 software. Chi-square for association test and ordinal logistic regression for predictor identification were used.

Results

Age of drivers were the responsible causes of fatal road traffic accident (p-value = 0.033). The more experienced drivers decreased the occurrence of fatal traffic accidents. In addition, increasing vehicle service year reduced the occurrence of accidental death. Besides, the occurrence of fatal car accident in autumn season was 0.44 times less than that of in summer season. Additionally, drivers’ educational level was played a crucial role in a road traffic accident. For instance, drivers whose educational level was below 12th grade were the most responsible factor for car accident deaths. What is more, it was seen that drivers who drove their vehicles could minimize the occurrence of fatal traffic accident (p-value = 0.010).

Conclusion

In conclusion, fatal road traffic accidents happened due to drivers’ lack of sufficient driving experience and low educational level. In addition, driving on weekends and driving on summer season were disclosed as responsible for fatal car accident. Moreover, drivers with younger age and those who drove a new vehicle likely caused fatal car accident. However, drivers who drive their vehicles seemed to be less responsible for fatal car accident than that of employed.

Social Differences in the Prevalence of Road Traffic Injuries among Pedestrians, and Vehicle and Motorcycle Users in Iran: Results of a National Multiple Indicator Demographic and Health Survey (IrMIDHS, 2010)

Background

Traffic injuries are considered as the most important health issues for different countries in the world, especially developing countries that are experiencing rapid social changes. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence of road traffic injuries (RTIs) and its socioeconomic differences among road users in Iran as it is one of the countries with high rates of accidents in the world. The study population included all people in Iran. The target sample was 3,096 clusters consisting of 2,187 urban and 909 rural households.

Methods

Source of the raw data was the Iran's Multiple Indicator Demographic and Health Survey (IrMIDHS) 2010, which is a multi-stage stratified cluster-random cross-sectional study. The logistic regression has been performed for investigating the socioeconomic determinants which influence the RTIs among pedestrian, vehicle, and motorcycle users.

Results

The prevalence of RTIs is 13.8 (95% CI: 13.1, 14.5) per 1,000 people in the year leading up to the study. The injured groups included pedestrians (14.37%), vehicles (38.36%), motorcyclists (43.37%), and 3.9% of users injured with other vehicles. A total of 78.3% of the injured people underwent outpatient treatment or were hospitalized. The mean age in these three groups was significantly increased (27.9, 32.5, 33.4, respectively), and the proportion of men decreased (89.2, 75.2, and 60.6).

Conclusions

RTIs in Iran are higher than previous estimates due to consideration of non-hospitalized cases. Considering the high contribution of human factors in developing countries, these measures should prioritize vulnerable groups.

Road traffic deaths in Kashan region, Iran: An eight-year study (2006-2013)

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to analyze the trend of road traffic fatalities in Kashan Region, Iran, in a period of eight years.

METHODS

Through a cross-sectional study, all road traffic deaths classified under the V01V99 codes according to ICD-10 in Kashan region, central Iran, from March 2006 to March 2013 and population data were collected from the registration system of Kashan University of Medical Sciences. Years of lost life (YLL) and mortality rates were calculated regarding age, gender and year of the accident. Generalized linear model (GLM) with Poisson log-linear link was used to evaluate the effects of the mentioned variables on mortality rate.

RESULTS

During the period of the study (8 years), 928 people (767 men) died due to road traffic injuries (RTIs). The total YLL was 20,818. The mortality rate due to RTIs has been declined constantly from 43.1 in March 2006 to 21.1 per 100,000 in March 2013. The highest mortality rate was found in the age group of over 60 years old and the lowest in the age group of 0-14 years old. Both mortality rate and YLL was greater in men than in women. Poisson regression showed that age, gender and year of the accidents had a significant effect on mortality rate (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Although there has been a constant decline of mortality rate in Kashan area within the study period, the value remains higher than the mean level of Eastern Mediterranean region and the global average, which is a notable fact for policymakers and authorities.

Personality, Driving Behavior and Mental Disorders Factors as Predictors of Road Traffic Accidents Based on Logistic Regression

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of variables such as personality traits, driving behavior and mental illness on road traffic accidents among the drivers with accidents and those without road crash.

METHODS

In this cohort study, 800 bus and truck drivers were recruited. Participants were selected among drivers who referred to Imam Sajjad Hospital (Tehran, Iran) during 2013-2015. The Manchester driving behavior questionnaire (MDBQ), big five personality test (NEO personality inventory) and semi-structured interview (schizophrenia and affective disorders scale) were used. After two years, we surveyed all accidents due to human factors that involved the recruited drivers. The data were analyzed using the SPSS software by performing the descriptive statistics, t-test, and multiple logistic regression analysis methods. P values less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

In terms of controlling the effective and demographic variables, the findings revealed significant differences between the two groups of drivers that were and were not involved in road accidents. In addition, it was found that depression and anxiety could increase the odds ratio (OR) of road accidents by 2.4- and 2.7-folds, respectively (P=0.04, P=0.004). It is noteworthy to mention that neuroticism alone can increase the odds of road accidents by 1.1-fold (P=0.009), but other personality factors did not have a significant effect on the equation.

CONCLUSION

The results revealed that some mental disorders affect the incidence of road collisions. Considering the importance and sensitivity of driving behavior, it is necessary to evaluate multiple psychological factors influencing drivers before and after receiving or renewing their driver's license.

The Burden of Road Traffic Injuries in Yazd Province - Iran

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the Disabled-adjusted Life Years (DALYs) of Road Traffic Accidents in patients referred to hospitals in Yazd Province, central Iran.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted in Yazd province during 2010. To calculate the Years of Life Lost (YLL) due to premature death and to calculate the incidence of non-fatal injuries and Years Lost due to Disability (YLD), the data were collected from Yazd death registration system and hospital records. The causes of death and nature of non-fatal injuries were classified using International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). We estimated Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) on the guidelines of the Global Burden of Disease Study (discount rate: 0.03, age weight: 0.04, constant age weight correction factor: 0.165). Age and sex composition was taken from the National Statistical Center for the year 2010.

RESULTS

During 2009, 483 deaths were caused by traffic accidents in Yazd Province, 382 (79.09%) of which were males, and 101 (20.91%) were females. The mortality rates for males and females were 70.98 and 20.15 in 100,000, respectively. The years of life lost due to premature deaths were 15.84/1000 in men and 4.75/1,000 in women. Total YLLs caused by traffic accidents were 10,908 years. The injuries caused by traffic accidents were calculated as 15.21 and 3.73/1,000 in males and females, respectively. The total YLDs was calculated 1.51/1,000. The total burden of Road Traffic Injuries in Yazd province was 12478 years (DALYs), 87.41% of which was due to premature death, and 12.59% was related to disability. Also, 78.32% was lost in males. The age specific peak of burden was in 15-29 year.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that traffic accidents in Yazd impose a high burden. It seems that it is one of the health sector priorities. It is recommended to revise laws on use of motorcycles, especially on helmet use for motorcyclists, enforce strict laws in residential areas, and review social determinant affecting the incidence of such accidents.

Prevalence of Addiction and Smoking and Their Relationship With Blood Parameters Among Drivers in Zahedan

Background

Although smoking and drug use are the major causes of accidents and death of drivers, few studies have been conducted on the prevalence of smoking and its associated factors in this occupational group.

Objectives

The current study aimed to investigate the prevalence of smoking and its relationship with blood parameters among drivers in Zahedan city, Iran.

Patients and Methods

In this study, 1836 inner and intercity drivers were investigated in 2013 in terms of smoking and drug use and blood parameters. Data were obtained through in-depth interviews and necessary examinations and tests, and were analyzed by Stata.12 software using Chi-square, independent t-test, and multiple regression analysis at significance level of 0.05.

Results

Generally, four drivers were addicted to drugs and smoked as well. Two-hundred and eighty eight drivers (15.8%) reported daily smoking. Variables of age, education, and type of vehicle showed a significant relationship with smoking. No significant difference was found in blood parameters between the smokers and non-smokers.

Conclusions

Despite relatively high prevalence of smoking than drug use in Zahedan drivers, there are few reports of these behaviors. Laboratory tests cannot suitably measure substance use due to their interference with other substances. Considering adverse effects of smoking on health and driving, it is necessary to train drivers to reduce or stop smoking during driving.

Epidemiological Patterns of Road Traffic Crashes During the Last Two Decades in Iran: A Review of the Literature from 1996 to 2014

Context

Despite considerable attention given to health statistics of road traffic crashes (RTCs), the epidemiological aspects of injuries resulting from RTCs are not fully understood in Iran and other developing countries. The aim of this review was to study the epidemiological pattern and issues arising due to RTCs in Iran.

Evidence Acquisition

The scope of this study involves data from a broad range of published literature on RTCs in Iran. Data collection for this study was conducted by searching for keywords such as traffic accidents, traffic crashes, motorcycle accidents, motorcycle crashes, motorcycle injury, motor vehicle injury, motor vehicle crashes and motor vehicle accidents, Iran and Iranian in various databases such as Embase, PubMed, Google Scholar, Scopus, Magiran, Iranian scientific information database (SID) and IranMedex.

Results

This study comprised of 95 articles. It is evident from this review that a large number of severe RTCs occur due to collision of two or more vehicles and most of the victims are males aged between 30 and 39 years. Male pedestrian, drivers and passengers are more likely to be severely injured in comparison to females. One of the most prevalent causes of death among adults involved in the RTCs are head injuries and the majority of deaths occur prior to hospitalization. Mortality rates for RTCs are higher in summer, especially during midnight among all age groups. The most common individual and environmental risk factors associated with RTCs include lack of attention, getting trapped in the car, listening to music, fatigue and sleepiness, duration and distance and negligence of seatbelt usage while driving.

Conclusions

The findings of the current study will be beneficial in prevention of RTCs and its associated complications and hence will be vital for policy makers, health service managers and stakeholders.

Trends in Road Traffic Deaths in Yazd, Iran, 2004 - 2010

Background

Road traffic deaths are a considerable public health problem and a major source of lost financial and human resources. Most mortality occurs in low- and middle-income countries.

Objectives

This study aimed to measure road traffic fatality rates and years of lost life, and also to depict a view of trends in road traffic deaths from 2004 to 2010 in Yazd city, a province in central Iran.

Materials and Methods

This retrospective case study analyzed road traffic deaths that were classified under the V01 - V99 codes of the ICD-10 in Yazd province from March 2004 to March 2010, using data that were collected from the death registration system of the Yazd province health center. Cases were classified according to age, sex, time of year, and residence (urban vs. rural). Years of lost life and road fatality rate per 100,000 people were calculated. Data were analyzed using chi-square test and ANOVA with SPSS 16.

Results

During the seven-year period of this study, 3,028 people in Yazd province died due to road traffic accidents (9.1% of total deaths in the province). Most deaths occurred among people aged 20-24 (15%), men (82.7%), and urban residents (82.6%). Total years of lost life (YLL) were 73,875 (60,337 and 13,489 in men and women, respectively). The road traffic fatality rate per 100,000 was 47.6 in 2004 and 37.6 in 2010. In the study period, the rate of traffic fatalities decreased for men (from 77.9 to 68.5) but this is not the case for women (from 14.8 to 19.2). Road traffic deaths peaked every summer.

Conclusions

Despite the overall reduction trend, the road traffic fatality rate in Yazd province is still alarmingly high compared to national and global data. In addition, the female population shows increasing death rates. These findings can serve as a basis for health care professionals and policymakers to conduct preventive measures, especially during summer, and plan specifically for reducing fatalities in the female population.