A Prognostic Nomogram Incorporating Depth of Tumor Invasion to Predict Long-term Overall Survival for Tongue Squamous Cell Carcinoma With R0 Resection

Nutritional and immune-related indicators-based Nomogram for predicting overall survival of surgical oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma

Oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (OTSCC) is one of the most aggressive oral tumors. The aim of this study was to establish a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) of TSCC patients after surgery. 169 TSCC patients who underwent surgical treatments in the Cancer Hospital of Shantou University Medical College were included. A nomogram based on Cox regression analysis results was established and internally validated using bootstrap resampling method. pTNM stage, age and total protein, immunoglobulin G, factor B and red blood cell count were identified as independent prognostic factors to create the nomogram. The Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion of the nomogram were lower than those of pTNM stage, indicating a better goodness-of-fit of the nomogram for predicting OS. The bootstrap-corrected concordance index of nomogram was higher than that of pTNM stage (0.794 vs. 0.665, p = 0.0008). The nomogram also had a good calibration and improved overall net benefit. Based on the cutoff value obtained from the nomogram, the proposed high-risk group had poorer OS than low-risk group (p < 0.0001). The nomogram based on nutritional and immune-related indicators represents a promising tool for outcome prediction of surgical OTSCC.

Prognosis and Nomogram Prediction for Patients with Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Cohort Study

The TNM staging system is often used to predict the prognosis of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). However, we have found that patients under the same TNM staging may exhibit tremendous differences in survival rates. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the prognosis of postoperative OSCC patients, establish a nomogram survival prediction model, and verify its effectiveness. Operative logs were reviewed for patients who underwent surgical treatment for OSCC at the Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology. Patient demographic and surgical records were obtained, and they were followed up for overall survival (OS). A total of 432 patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma were included in the study, with a median follow-up time of 47 months. Based on the results of the Cox regression analysis, we constructed and verified the nomogram prediction model, which includes gender, BMI, OPMDs, pain score, SCC grade, and N stage. The C-index value of the 3-year and 5-year prediction models was 0.782 and 0.770, respectively, proving that the model has a certain level of prediction stability. The new nomogram prediction model has potential clinical significance for predicting the postoperative survival of OSCC patients.

Management of Stage III Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Light of the New Staging System: a Critical Review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) patients have a poor prognosis, especially in advanced stages. AJCC/UICC staging system 8th edition (TNM8) included depth of invasion (DOI) as part of T staging and stage III has become a heterogeneous group of lesions, composed of patients with larger DOI and/or width. Additionally, stage III includes N1, regardless of the primary tumor width or DOI. The real prognostic value of each of these characteristics and the need for adjuvant treatment for stage III patients is not well established.

RECENT FINDINGS

TNM8 stratified OSCC into prognostic groups based on overall survival. Extranodal extension, positive or close margins, pT3 or pT4 tumors, pN2 or pN3 nodal disease, nodal disease in levels IV or V, perineural invasion, vascular invasion, and lymphatic invasion are the main adverse features for OSCC, and adjuvant treatment is largely recommended for these patients. Stage III patients should be addressed with caution. So far, there is no significant evidence for recommending or excluding adjuvant treatment for stage III OSCC without adverse features. The authors largely recommend adjuvant radiotherapy for these cases, especially because pT3 without adverse features is rare. Further studies on this topic are necessary.

Prognostic role of primary tumor metabolic-volumetric parameters of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography in tongue squamous cell carcinoma

Aim: It was aimed to evaluate the prognostic role of primary tumor metabolic-volumetric parameters of 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) in resectable tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC). Materials and Methods: The imaging findings of 44 TSCC patients (23 females, 21 males, mean age: 58 ± 12) with resectable tumors who underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT imaging for primary staging before surgery between 2010-2021 were evaluated retrospectively. Maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), total lesion glycolysis (TLG), metabolic tumor volume (MTV) of primary tumors were acquired from PET/CT. Histopathological risk factors (pathological tumor and nodal stage, perineural and lymphovascular invasion, depth of invasion, surgical margin positivity) obtained from surgical resection material of primary tumors were also recorded. The prognostic values of imaging and histopathological parameters were assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression models. Survival curves were estimated by using the Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results: The median follow-up period after diagnosis was 24 months (range: 2-152 months). The univariate and multivariate regression analyses demonstrated that MTV was the only parameter which was significantly related to prognosis for PFS and OS. The patients with higher MTV (> 3.13 cm3) had lower OS and PFS rates compared to those with lower MTV (≤ 3.13 cm3) (p = 0.002, p < 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: Primary tumor MTV is an independent prognostic factor in resectable TSCC. PET volumetric features can be used as prognostic biomarker to predict patients with poor prognosis.

Development and validation of novel nomograms to predict survival of patients with tongue squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

There is no unified standard to predict postoperative survival in patients with tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC), hence the urgency to develop a model to accurately predict the prognosis of these patients.

AIM

To develop and validate nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with TSCC.

METHODS

A cohort of 3454 patients with TSCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to develop nomograms; another independent cohort of 203 patients with TSCC from the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine, was used for external validation. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify useful variables for the development of nomograms. The calibration curve, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis, concordance index (C-index), net reclassification index (NRI), and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the calibration, discrimination ability, and clinical utility of the nomograms.

RESULTS

Eight variables were selected and used to develop nomograms for patients with TSCC. The C-index (0.741 and 0.757 for OS and CSS in the training cohort and 0.800 and 0.830 in the validation cohort, respectively) and AUC indicated that the discrimination abilities of these nomograms were acceptable. The calibration curves of OS and CSS indicated that the predicted and actual values were consistent in both the training and validation cohorts. The NRI values (training cohort: 0.493 and 0.482 for 3- and 5-year OS and 0.424 and 0.402 for 3- and 5-year CSS; validation cohort: 0.635 and 0.750 for 3- and 5-year OS and 0.354 and 0.608 for 3- and 5-year CSS, respectively) and DCA results indicated that the nomograms were significantly better than the tumor-node-metastasis staging system in predicting the prognosis of patients with TSCC.

CONCLUSION

Our nomograms can accurately predict patient prognoses and assist clinicians in improving decision-making concerning patients with TSCC in clinical practice.

High-Frequency Intraoral Ultrasound for Preoperative Assessment of Depth of Invasion for Early Tongue Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Radiological-Pathological Correlations

The eighth edition of the TNM classification officially introduced "depth of invasion" (DOI) as a criterion for determining the T stage in tongue squamous cell carcinoma. The DOI is a well-known independent risk factor for nodal metastases. In fact, several experts strongly suggest elective neck dissection for tongue cancer with a DOI > 4 mm due to the high risk of early and occult nodal metastases. Imaging plays a pivotal role in preoperative assessments of the DOI and, hence, in planning the surgical approach. Intraoral ultrasound (IOUS) has been proposed for early-stage SCC of the oral tongue as an alternative to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for local staging. The aim of this work is to investigate the accuracy of IOUS in the assessment of the DOI in early oral SCC (CIS, pT1, and pT2). A total of 41 patients with tongue SCCs (CIS-T2) underwent a preoperative high-frequency IOUS. An IOUS was performed using a small-size, high-frequency hockey-stick linear probe. The ultrasonographic DOI (usDOI) was retrospectively compared to the pathological DOI (pDOI) as the standard reference. In patients who underwent a preoperative MRI, their usDOI, magnetic resonance DOI (mriDOI), and pDOI were compared. Specificity and sensitivity for the IOUS to predict a pDOI > 4 mm and to differentiate invasive and noninvasive tumors were also evaluated. A high correlation was found between the pDOI and usDOI, pDOI and mriDOI, and usDOI and mriDOI (Spearman's ρ = 0.84, p < 0.0001, Spearman's ρ = 0.79, p < 0.0001, and Spearman's ρ = 0.91, p < 0.0001, respectively). A Bland-Altman plot showed a high agreement between the usDOI and pDOI, even though a mean systematic error was found between the usDOI and pDOI (0.7 mm), mriDOI and pDOI (1.6 mm), and usDOI and mriDOI (-0.7 mm). The IOUS was accurate at determining the T stage (p < 0.0001). The sensitivity and specificity for the IOUS to predict a pDOI ≥4 mm were 92.31% and 82.14%, respectively, with an AUC of 0.87 (p < 0.0001). The specificity, sensitivity, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive value (PPV) for the IOUS to predict an invasive cancer were 100%, 94.7%, 60%, and 100%, respectively. The AUC was 0.8 (95% CI 0.646-0.908, p < 0.0001). The IOUS was accurate in a preoperative assessment of a pDOI and T stage, and can be proposed as an alternative to MRI in the preoperative staging of tongue SCC.

A novel nomogram to predict mortality in patients with stroke: a survival analysis based on the MIMIC-III clinical database

Background

Stroke is a disease characterized by sudden cerebral ischemia and is the second leading cause of death worldwide. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram model to predict mortality in intensive care unit patients with stroke.

Methods

All data involved in this study were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database (MIMIC-III). The data were analyzed using multivariate Cox regression, and the performance of the novel nomogram, which assessed the patient’s overall survival at 30, 180, and 360 days after stroke, was evaluated using Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A calibration curve and decision curve were introduced to test the clinical value and effectiveness of our prediction model.

Results

A total of 767 patients with stroke were randomly divided into derivation (n = 536) and validation (n = 231) cohorts at a 7:3 ratio. Multivariate Cox regression showed that 12 independent predictors, including age, weight, ventilation, cardiac arrhythmia, metastatic cancer, explicit sepsis, Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score or OASIS score, diastolic blood pressure, bicarbonate, chloride, red blood cell and white blood cell counts, played a significant role in the survival of individuals with stroke. The nomogram model was validated based on the C-indices, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis results.

Conclusions

The plotted nomogram accurately predicted stroke outcomes and, thus may contribute to clinical decision-making and treatment as well as consultation services for patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12911-022-01836-3.

Comparison of Different Staging Systems Applied to a Cohort of Patients With Oral Tongue and Floor of the Mouth Cancer

Purpose: The present work compares the effects produced by the application of the 7th edition of the tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging system (TNM7), 8th Edition (TNM8) with its two subsequent revisions, and pN-N+ classification on a cohort of patients with oral tongue and floor of the mouth cancer. Methods: A monocentric cohort of 148 patients was retrospectively analyzed. Patients were staged according to the TNM7, TNM8 and revisions, and pN-N+ classification. Stage migration was assessed and overall survival (OS) analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method. The pT, pN, and stage stratification was evaluated with univariate and multivariate Cox regression and comparing adjacent categories with the log-rank method. Results: pT3-T4a categories showed significant differences in comparison to pT1-T2 for each staging metric employed in both uni- and multivariate analysis. When comparing adjacent pT categories, OS was significantly different only between pT2 and pT3 categories of the TNM8. Disproportionate patient distribution among pN categories was observed in the TNM8, and stratification was scarce. Conversely, in the pN-N+ classification the difference between pN2 and pN3a categories was significant. Only stage IVa reached statistical significance in TNM7, whereas stage III and above were significant in TNM8 and revisions in both uni- and multivariate analysis. However, no significant difference was noted comparing adjacent stages. Conclusion: The TNM8 pT classification differentiated low- from high-risk diseases. Nonetheless, it failed to separate pT1 from pT2 and pT3 from pT4a categories. Conversely, although TNM8 nodal staging was inaccurate, the number of metastatic lymph nodes was more valuable.

Nomogram based on clinical characteristics and serological inflammation markers to predict overall survival of oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma patient after surgery

BACKGROUND

Oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (OTSCC) is a prevalent malignant disease that is characterized by high rates of metastasis and postoperative recurrence. The aim of this study was to establish a nomogram to predict the outcome of OTSCC patients after surgery.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 169 OTSCC patients who underwent treatments in the Cancer Hospital of Shantou University Medical College from 2008 to 2019. The Cox regression analysis was performed to determine the independent prognostic factors associated with patient's overall survival (OS). A nomogram based on these prognostic factors was established and internally validated using a bootstrap resampling method.

RESULTS

Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed the independent prognostic factors for OS were TNM stage, age, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio and immunoglobulin G, all of which were identified to create the nomogram. The Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion of the nomogram were lower than those of TNM stage (292.222 vs. 305.480; 298.444 vs. 307.036, respectively), indicating a better goodness-of-fit of the nomogram for predicting OS. The bootstrap-corrected of concordance index (C-index) of nomogram was 0.784 (95% CI 0.708-0.860), which was higher than that of TNM stage (0.685, 95% CI 0.603-0.767, P = 0.017). The results of time-dependent C-index for OS also showed that the nomogram had a better discriminative ability than that of TNM stage. The calibration curves of the nomogram showed good consistency between the probabilities and observed values. The decision curve analysis also revealed the potential clinical usefulness of the nomogram. Based on the cutoff value obtained from the nomogram, the proposed high-risk group had poorer OS than low-risk group (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram based on clinical characteristics and serological inflammation markers might be useful for outcome prediction of OTSCC patient.

Development and Validation of Prognostic Models for Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Systematic Review and Appraisal of the Literature

(1) Background: An accurate prediction of cancer survival is very important for counseling, treatment planning, follow-up, and postoperative risk assessment in patients with Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma (OSCC). There has been an increased interest in the development of clinical prognostic models and nomograms which are their graphic representation. The study aimed to revise the prognostic performance of clinical-pathological prognostic models with internal validation for OSCC. (2) Methods: This systematic review was performed according to the Cochrane Handbook for Diagnostic Test Accuracy Reviews chapter on searching, the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) guidelines, and the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS). (3) Results: Six studies evaluating overall survival in patients with OSCC were identified. All studies performed internal validation, while only four models were externally validated. (4) Conclusions: Based on the results of this systematic review, it is possible to state that it is necessary to carry out internal validation and shrinkage to correct overfitting and provide an adequate performance for optimism. Moreover, calibration, discrimination and nonlinearity of continuous predictors should always be examined. To reduce the risk of bias the study design used should be prospective and imputation techniques should always be applied to handle missing data. In addition, the complete equation of the prognostic model must be reported to allow updating, external validation in a new context and the subsequent evaluation of the impact on health outcomes and on the cost-effectiveness of care.

Risk factors for relapse and nomogram for relapse probability prediction in patients with minor ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND

The identification of risk factors for recurrence in patients with minor ischemic stroke (MIS) is a critical medical need.

AIM

To develop a nomogram for individualized prediction of in-hospital recurrence in MIS patients.

METHODS

Based on retrospective collection, a single-center study was conducted at the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from January 2014 to December 2019. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors associated with MIS recurrence. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was performed for preliminary identification of potential risk factors. Uric acid, systolic blood pressure, serum total bilirubin (STBL), and ferritin were integrated for nomogram construction. The predictive accuracy and calibration of the nomogram model were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow test, respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 2216 MIS patients were screened. Among them, 155 were excluded for intravascular therapy, 146 for unknown National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, 195 for intracranial hemorrhage, and 247 for progressive stroke. Finally, 1244 patients were subjected to further analysis and divided into a training set (n = 796) and a validation set (n = 448). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that uric acid [odds ratio (OR): 0.997, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.993-0.999], ferritin (OR: 1.004, 95%CI: 1.002-1.006), and STBL (OR: 0.973, 95%CI: 0.956-0.990) were independently associated with in-hospital recurrence in MIS patients. Our model showed good discrimination; the AUC-ROC value was 0.725 (95%CI: 0.646-0.804) in the training set and 0.717 (95%CI: 0.580-0.785) in the validation set. Moreover, the calibration between nomogram prediction and the actual observation showed good consistency. Hosmer-Lemeshow test results confirmed that the nomogram was well-calibrated (P = 0.850).

CONCLUSION

Our present findings suggest that the nomogram may provide individualized prediction of recurrence in MIS patients.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram based on cell growth-related Biomarkers for Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Purpose: We aimed to develop a prognostic nomogram based on immunohistochemistry (IHC) biomarkers of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Methods: A total of 294 patients were enrolled in the study. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression model was performed to develop a combined IHC score (IHCs) classifier. Results: Five biomarkers, specifically c-Met, Vimentin, HIF-2α, VEGF-c, and Bcl-2 were extracted. Then, an IHCs classifier was developed, and patients were stratified into high- and low-IHCs groups. In the training cohort, the 5-year overall survival (OS) was 62.1% in low-IHCs group and 28.2% in high-IHCs group (P<0.001). The 5-year OS was 68.6% for the low-IHCs group and 28.4% for the high-IHCs group in the validation cohort (P<0.001). The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of the combination of the IHCs classifier and TNM stage was 0.746 (95% CI: 0.658-0.833) in the training cohort and 0.735 (95% CI: 0.651-0.818) in the validation cohort, respectively. Conclusions: The nomogram could effectively predict the prognosis for patients with OSCC and may be employed as a potential tool to guide the individual decision-making process.

Identification of Prognosis-related Hub RNA Binding Proteins Function through Regulating Metabolic Processes in Tongue Cancer

RNA binding proteins (RBPs) are dysregulated and associated with the occurrence and development in various malignant tumors. However, the role of RBPs in tongue cancer are largely unclear. Here, by integrating the differential gene expression analysis and the Weighted Gene Co-expression Network Analysis (WGCNA) of TCGA-retrieved RNA-seq data, we identified a total of 171 differential co-expression RBPs. Then, in a protein-protein interaction (PPI) network containing 134 nodes (RBPs) and 315 network edges (RBP-RBP interacting networks), the top 30 hub RBPs were identified using the CytoHubba plugin of Cytoscape. Furthermore, we investigated the expression and prognostic value of these RBPs and their highly correlated networks. Among them, six RBPs (PGK1, SLC20A1, LEPR, CYP19A1, ZC3H12D, and PFKM) were shown to be the prognosis-related hub RBPs (prhRBPs). Based on these hub RBPs, we constructed a prognostic model and found that the patients in the high-risk group had dramatically poor overall survival compared to those in low-risk group. In addition, we validated the prognostic model in GSE41613, another tongue cancer patient cohort from GEO datasets. The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of the prognostic model further confirmed the predictive capability of the risk model for tongue cancer. As suggested in functional annotation analysis, we found an intensive enrichment of these prhRBPs in metabolic pathways, including AMPK, HIF-1 signaling pathway, Glycolysis, and steroid hormone biosynthesis. Together, our study revealed the underlying role of RBP in tongue cancer biology and potentially unveiled novel targets for cancer therapy.

Failure rate in the untreated contralateral node negative neck of small lateralized oral cavity cancers: A multi-institutional collaborative study

OBJECTIVES

The importance of treating the bilateral neck in lateralized small oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCC) is unclear. We sought to define the incidence and predictors of contralateral neck failure (CLF) in patients who underwent unilateral treatment.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a multi-institutional retrospective study of patients with pathologic T1-T2 (AJCC 7th edition) OCC with clinically node negative contralateral neck who underwent unilateral treatment with primary surgical resection ± adjuvant radiotherapy between 2005 and 2015. Incidence of CLF was estimated using the cumulative incidence method. Clinicopathological factors were analyzed by univariate (UVA) and multivariate analysis (MVA) for possible association with CLF. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

176 patients were evaluated with a median of 65.9 months of follow-up. Predominant pathologic T-stage was T1 (68%), 8.5% of patients were N1, 2.8% were N2b. Adjuvant radiotherapy was delivered to 17% of patients. 5-year incidence of CLF was 4.3% (95% CI 1.2-7.4%). Depth of invasion (DOI) > 10 mm and positive ipsilateral neck node were significant predictors for CLF on UVA. DOI > 10 mm remained significant on MVA (HR = 6.7, 95% CI 1.4-32.3, p = 0.02). The 2- and 5-year OS was 90.6% (95% CI 86.2-95.0%) and 80.6% (95% CI 74.5-86.8%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Observation of the clinically node negative contralateral neck in small lateralized OCC can be a suitable management approach in well selected patients, however caution should be applied when DOI upstages small but deeply invasive tumors to T3 on 8th edition AJCC staging.

Predictive nomograms for oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma applying the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union Internationale Contre le Cancer 8th edition staging system

BACKGROUND

Nomograms applying the 8th edition of the TNM staging system aimed at predicting overall (OS), disease-specific (DSS), locoregional recurrence-free (LRRFS) and distant recurrence-free survivals (DRFS) for oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (OTSCC) are still lacking.

METHODS

A training cohort of 438 patients with OTSCC was retrospectively enrolled from a single institution. An external validation set of 287 patients was retrieved from two independent institutions.

RESULTS

Internal validation of the multivariable models for OS, DSS, DRFS and LRRFS showed a good calibration and discrimination results with optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.74, 0.75, 0.77 and 0.70, respectively. The external validation confirmed the good performance of OS, DSS and DRFS models (c-index 0.73 and 0.77, and 0.73, respectively) and a fair performance of the LRRFS model (c-index 0.58).

CONCLUSIONS

The nomograms herein presented can be implemented as useful tools for prediction of OS, DSS, DRFS and LRRFS in OTSCC.

A 15-Gene Signature and Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Non-Distant Metastatic Oral Tongue Squamous Cell Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (OTSCC) is a devastating tumor with poor prognosis. There is an urgent need for reliable biomarkers to help predict prognosis and guide treatment for OTSCC. In the current study, we aimed to develop a robust multi-gene signature and prognostic nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with non-distant metastatic OTSCC.

METHODS

OTSCC-related differentially-expressed genes were screened from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Univariate Cox regression based on 1,000 bootstrap replicates, LASSO regression and stepwise multivariate Cox regression were utilized to develop a novel multi-mRNA signature for predicting overall survival in OTSCC. The concordance index, area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC AUC) and calibration curve were employed to assess the prediction capacity of the novel multi-gene model. In addition, a prognostic nomogram was constructed to facilitate the clinical use of the fitted model. The Kaplan-Meier with log-rank test was employed to assess differences in overall survival.

RESULTS

We successfully established a novel 15-mRNA prognostic model for predicting overall survival of non-distant metastatic OTSCC, involving ADTRP, ITGA3, RFC4, CCDC96, CYP2J2, NELL2, SPHK1, SPAG16, HBEGF, S100A9, EGFL6, ADGRG6, PDE4D, ABCA4, and CTTN. The prediction ability of this 15-gene signature was independent of other clinicopathological factors, with an HR of 11.5 (95% CI: 4.70-28.3). Moreover, internal validation by bootstrap analysis yielded a C-index of 0.849, with a 3-year AUC of 0.907 and 5-year AUC of 0.944, which implied excellent prediction accuracy of the fitted model. In addition, external validation by using the GEO dataset (GSE41116) yielded a C-index of 0.804, with a 3-year AUC of 0.868 and 5-year AUC of 0.855, which also indicated good prediction ability of the 15-gene model. Finally, a prognostic nomogram integrating risk group, grade, T stage and N stage was established.

CONCLUSION

Our results demonstrate our 15-gene signature was independently associated with overall survival in non-distant metastatic OTSCC. Moreover, the prognostic nomogram integrating the 15-gene signature and clinicopathological factors has potential to be developed as a prognostic tool.

A Prognostic Model Based on Clinicopathological Features and Inflammation- and Nutrition-Related Indicators Predicts Overall Survival in Surgical Patients With Tongue Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Objectives: It is reported that inflammation- and nutrition-related indicators have a prognostic impact on multiple cancers. Here we aimed to identify a prognostic nomogram model for prediction of overall survival (OS) in surgical patients with tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC). Methods: The retrospective data of 172 TSCC patients were charted from the Cancer Hospital of Shantou University Medical College between 2008 and 2019. A Cox regression analysis was performed to determine prognostic factors to establish a nomogram and predict OS. The predictive accuracy of the model was analyzed by the calibration curves and the concordance index (C-index). The difference of OS was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Results: Multivariate analysis showed age, tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage, red blood cell, platelets, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio were independent prognostic factors for OS, which were used to build the prognostic nomogram model. The C-index of the model for OS was 0.794 (95% CI = 0.729-0.860), which was higher than that of TNM stage 0.685 (95% CI = 0.605-0.765). In addition, decision curve analysis also showed the nomogram model had improved predictive accuracy and discriminatory performance for OS, compared to the TNM stage. According to the prognostic model risk score, patients in the high-risk subgroup had a lower 5-year OS rate than that in a low-risk subgroup (23% vs 49%, P < .0001). Conclusions: The nomogram model based on clinicopathological features inflammation- and nutrition-related indicators represents a promising tool that might complement the TNM stage in the prognosis of TSCC.

Geographical heterogeneity in the American Joint committee on Cancer oral cancer staging and prognostic implications

OBJECTIVES

The AJCC 8th edition (AJCC 8) has introduced depth of invasion (DOI) and extranodal extension (ENE) into staging for oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Although validations have been performed on institutional datasets have shown a good performance, particularly in early OSCC, there have been no studies on diverse patient populations that determine the impact on prognostic heterogeneity.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective analysis of 4710 patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) treated with surgery +/- adjuvant therapy in 8 institutions in Australia, North America and Asia. With overall survival (OS) as endpoint, the prognostic performance of AJCC 7th and 8th editions were compared using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), Harrell's concordance index (C-index).

RESULTS

When comparing AJCC 8 to AJCC 7, the heterogeneity in prediction of OS increased for T-category and N-category while remaining unchanged for TNM staging, suggesting AJCC 8 increased complexity with no improvement in predictive value. There were significant differences in median DOI and incidence of ENE between geographical regions, resulting in dissimilar rates of stage-migration when adopting AJCC 8.

CONCLUSION

In an attempt to improve prognostic performance, AJCC 8 introduced more variables; however heterogeneity in these results in significant geographical differences in model discrimination and performance. Caution should be applied as this may result in inaccurate and unreliable prognostic predictions that may impact treatment recommendations.

Depth of invasion versus tumour thickness in early oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma: which measurement is the most practical and predictive of outcome?

AIMS

The 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Staging introduced depth of invasion (DOI) into the pT category of oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma. However, we noted multiple practical obstacles in accurately measuring DOI histologically in our daily practice.

METHODS AND RESULTS

To compare the prognostic effects of DOI and tumour thickness (TT), a meticulous pathology review was conducted in a retrospective cohort of 293 patients with AJCC 7th edition pT1/T2 oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma. Overall survival (OS) and nodal metastasis rate at initial resection were the primary and secondary outcomes, respectively. We found that TT and DOI were highly correlated with a correlation coefficient of 0.984. The upstage rate was only 6% (18 of 293 patients) when using TT in the pT stage compared with using DOI. More importantly, DOI and TT, as well as pT stage using DOI and pT stage using TT, performed identically in predicting risk of nodal metastasis and OS.

CONCLUSIONS

We therefore propose to replace DOI, a complicated measurement with many challenges, with TT in the pT staging system.

Outcomes after venous thromboembolism in patients with gastric cancer: Analysis of the RIETE Registry

Gastric cancer is the fifth most common malignancy worldwide. Venous thromboembolism is an independent predictor of death among patients with gastric cancer. We aimed to describe the factors associated with mortality, thrombosis recurrence, and bleeding complications in patients with gastric cancer who develop venous thromboembolism. We included 612 patients with gastric cancer and venous thromboembolism in the Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica (RIETE) registry from 2001 to 2018. We used Cox proportional hazard ratios and a Fine-Gray model to define factors associated with outcomes. The overall mortality at 6 months was 44.4%. Factors associated with increased 6-month mortality included immobility (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.3-2.4; p < 0.001), anemia (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.8; p < 0.02), and leukocytosis (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.3; p < 0.001). Recurrent thrombosis occurred in 6.5% of patients and major bleeding complications in 8.5% of the cohort. Male sex was the main factor associated with thrombosis recurrence (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1-4.0; p < 0.02) and hemoglobin below 10 g/dL (HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.05-2.50; p = 0.03) the main factor associated with bleeding. In conclusion, patients with gastric cancer who develop venous thrombosis have a very high likelihood of death. Low hemoglobin in this population is associated with poor outcomes.

Elective Neck Dissection, but Not Adjuvant Radiation Therapy, Improves Survival in Stage I and II Oral Tongue Cancer with Depth of Invasion >4 mm

Purpose/objective(s)

In early-stage, node negative oral tongue cancer, there is limited data supporting tumor depth of invasion (DOI) as an indication for post-operative radiotherapy (PORT) to the primary site. The primary aim of this study is to examine the effect of tumor DOI and PORT on overall survival (OS).

Materials and methods

The National Cancer Database (NCDB) was used to query patients with AJCC stage I and II oral tongue cancer (2006-2013). Patients were stratified by receipt of PORT, elective neck dissection (ND), and DOI (≤4 mm or >4 mm). Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to compare OS (using the log-rank test) between PORT versus no-PORT. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model performed to evaluate the independent effect of PORT and neck dissection on OS.

Results

Among 939 patients, 69.3% were clinical stage I, 67.4% received ND, 23.4% had DOI >4 mm, and 10.4% received PORT. The addition of PORT did not improve OS with tumor DOI ≤4 mm (p = 0.634) or >4 mm (p = 0.816). The addition of elective neck dissection improved OS for DOI >4 mm (p = 0.010), but not for ≤4 mm (p = 0.128). On multivariable analysis, ND improved OS if DOI >4 mm (HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.17-0.81 [p = .012]), when also controlling for age, sex, PORT status, clinical stage, and pathological stage.

Conclusion

Tumor DOI should not be used as a sole indication for PORT in early stage oral tongue cancers. Elective neck dissection at the time of excision of the primary tumor results in higher OS for tumors with DOI >4 mm.

A NADE nomogram to predict the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND

Early prediction of unfavorable outcome after ischemic stroke is of great significance to the clinical and therapeutic management. A nomogram is a better visual tool than earlier models and prognostic scores to predict clinical outcomes, which incorporates different factors to develop a graphic continuous scoring system and calculates accurately the risk probability of poor outcome entirely based on individual characteristics. However, to date, no nomogram models have been found to predict the probability of 6-month poor outcome after ischemic stroke. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke.

METHODS

Based on the retrospective stroke registry, a single-center study which included 499 patients from May, 2013 to May, 2018 was conducted in Nanjing First Hospital (China) for ischemic stroke within 12 h of symptoms onset. The main outcome measure was 6-month unfavorable outcome (mRS > 2). To generate the nomogram, NIHSS score on admission, Age, previous Diabetes mellitus and crEatinine (NADE) were integrated into the model. We assessed the discriminative performance by using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration of risk prediction model by using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

RESULTS

A visual NADE nomogram was constructed that NIHSS score on admission (OR: 1.190, 95%CI: 1.125-1.258), age (OR: 1.068, 95%CI: 1.045-1.090), previous diabetes mellitus (OR: 1.995, 95%CI: 1.236-3.221) and creatinine (OR: 1.010, 95%CI: 1.002-1.018) were found to be significant predictors of 6-month unfavorable outcome after acute ischemic stroke in Chinese patients. The AUC-ROC of nomogram was 0.791. Calibration was good (p = 0.4982 for the Hosmer-Lemeshow test).

CONCLUSION

The NADE is the first nomogram developed and validated in Chinese ischemic stroke patients to provide an individual, visual and precise prediction of the risk probability of 6-month unfavorable outcome.

Personalized prognostication in head and neck cancer: A systematic review of nomograms according to the AJCC precision medicine core (PMC) criteria

BACKGROUND

The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Precision Medicine Core (PMC) has recognized the need for more personalized probabilistic predictions above the "TNM" staging system and has recently released a checklist of inclusion and exclusion criteria for evaluating prognostic models.

METHODS

A systematic review of articles in which nomograms were created for head and neck cancer (HNC) was carried out according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The AJCC PMC criteria were used to score the individual studies.

RESULTS

Forty-four studies were included in the final qualitative analysis. The mean number of inclusion criteria met was 9.3 out of 13, and the mean number of exclusion criteria met was 2.1 out of 3. Studies were generally of high quality, but no single study fulfilled all of the AJCC PMC criteria.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to utilize the AJCC checklist to comprehensively evaluate the published prognostic nomograms in HNC. Future studies should attempt to adhere to the AJCC PMC criteria. Recommendations for future research are given.

SUMMARY

The AJCC recently released a set of criteria to grade the quality of prognostic cancer models. In this study, we grade all published nomograms for head and neck cancer according to the new guidelines.