Precision-weighted estimates of neonatal, post-neonatal and child mortality for 640 districts in India, National Family Health Survey 2016

Progress on Sustainable Development Goal indicators in 707 districts of India: a quantitative mid-line assessment using the National Family Health Surveys, 2016 and 2021

Background

India has committed itself to accomplishing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. Meeting these goals would require prioritizing and targeting specific areas within India. We provide a mid-line assessment of the progress across 707 districts of India for 33 SDG indicators related to health and social determinants of health.

Methods

We used data collected on children and adults from two rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted in 2016 and 2021. We identified 33 indicators that cover 9 of the 17 official SDGs. We used the goals and targets outlined by the Global Indicator Framework, Government of India and World Health Organization (WHO) to determine SDG targets to be met by 2030. Using precision-weighted multilevel models, we estimated district mean for 2016 and 2021, and using these values, computed the Annual Absolute Change (AAC) for each indicator. Using the AAC and targets, we classified India and each district as: Achieved-I, Achieved-II, On-Target and Off-Target. Further, when a district was Off-Target on a given indicator, we further identified the calendar year in which the target will be met post-2030.

Findings

India is not On-Target for 19 of the 33 SDGs indicators. The critical Off-Target indicators include Access to Basic Services, Wasting and Overweight Children, Anaemia, Child Marriage, Partner Violence, Tobacco Use, and Modern Contraceptive Use. For these indicators, more than 75% of the districts were Off-Target. Because of a worsening trend observed between 2016 and 2021, and assuming no course correction occurs, many districts will never meet the targets on the SDGs even well after 2030. These Off-Target districts are concentrated in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, and Odisha. Finally, it does not appear that Aspirational Districts, on average, are performing better in meeting the SDG targets than other districts on majority of the indicators.

Interpretation

A mid-line assessment of districts' progress on SDGs suggests an urgent need to increase the pace and momentum on four SDG goals: No Poverty (SDG 1), Zero Hunger (SDG 2), Good Health and Well-Being (SDG 3) and Gender Equality (SDG 5). Developing a strategic roadmap at this time will help India ensure success with regards to meeting the SDGs. India's emergence and sustenance as a leading economic power depends on meeting some of the more basic health and social determinants of health-related SDGs in an immediate and equitable manner.

Funding

This work was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, INV-002992.

Mapping the triple burden of smoking, smokeless tobacco and alcohol consumption among adults in 28,521 communities across 640 districts of India: A sex-stratified multilevel cross-sectional study

National estimates on tobacco and alcohol consumption are insufficient to guide policy at the sub-national level. This study assessed the sex-stratified prevalence of different types of smoking and smokeless tobacco and alcohol consumption among adults aged 15-49 using the National Family Health Survey (2015-16) at sub-national administrative units. Three-level logistic regression models were applied to quantify the variation at district- and community-level in smoking and consumption of smokeless tobacco and alcohol. A higher prevalence of smoking, smokeless tobacco and alcohol consumption was observed among men. The study found that the considerable unexplained variations in two different forms of tobacco and alcohol consumption among men attributed to between-population differences at district-level and community-level. The between-population differences were even larger at the district- and community-level in tobacco and alcohol consumption among women. Continious assessment of tobacco and alcohol consumption at lower administrative units and the development of evidence-based localised cessation interventions must be integrated with health policy to reduce disease burden and preventable deaths.

Trends and geographic variability in gender inequalities in child mortality and stunting in India, 2006-2016

Gender disparities in child undernutrition and mortality in India have been a topic of interest for a long time, but little is known on trends or geographic variability in recent periods. We examined the degree to which historic patterns in gender disparities in child undernutrition and mortality in India have persisted given recent progress in health and nutrition. Using two nationally representative datasets from India between 2006 and 2016, we estimated mortality rates and stunting by gender and by birth order among children under 5 years old. We then tested for differences between boys and girls within each survey round for both national and state levels using bootstrapped standard errors, controlling for cluster and sampling weights. We found striking progress in child mortality and stunting in India between 2006 and 2016 for both boys and girls. Boys were more likely to die than girls during the first year of life. Girls had a higher risk of mortality between age 1 and 5 years than boys in 2006, but the improvements in survival eliminated this gender gap in 2016. For stunting, we found no gender difference in 2006, but girls had higher height‐for‐age Z‐scores (HAZ) and lower stunting than boys in 2016. Trends in gender gaps in mortality and stunting vary substantially by birth order and between states. Our findings indicate that improvements in mortality and nutritional status among girls have started to close gender disparities. Policy efforts to close gaps must stay the course in states that have made progress and be accelerated in states where disparities are still prominent.