Mortality determinants in colorectal cancer patients at different grades: a prospective, cohort study in Iran

Survival and predictors of mortality among colorectal cancer patients on follow-up in Hawassa University Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Sidama region, Southern Ethiopia, 2022. A 5-year retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer were still rising rapidly in many low-income and middle-income countries, which was linked to ongoing societal and economic status. Colorectal cancer is the leading cancer in Ethiopia with relatively lower survival. However, colorectal cancer patients' survival time and predictors have not been well studied in Southern Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess five-year survival and predictors of mortality among colorectal cancer patients at Hawassa Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia.

METHOD

Facility-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 323 patients who visited Hawassa Comprehensive Specialized Hospital from May 1st, 2017 to April 30th, 2022. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve with the Log-rank test was used to estimate the survival time. Bivariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to determine the net effect of each independent variable on time to death after diagnosis.

RESULT

Over the 5-year observation period, the overall mortality rate was 38.5%, with an incidence density of 31 fatalities per 100 person-years observation. Survival at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years was 78%, 53, 32.4%, 23.3%, and 18.7% respectively. The multivariable analysis showed that metastatic disease (AHR = 4.2, CI: 1.5-11.5), baseline carcinoembryonic antigen level ≥5ng/ml (AHR: 2.4, CI: 1.2-5.8), living in rural areas (AHR = 2.2, CI:1.03-4.8) and mucinous carcinoma (AHR = 0.33, CI: 0.13-0.87) were independent predictors of colorectal cancer mortality.

CONCLUSION

Overall survival of colorectal cancer patients in the study was low compared to similar studies in developing and developed worlds. A significantly low survival rate was observed for patients with advanced stage, elevated carcinoembryonic antigen levels, and rural residents indicating the key role of early detection and timely initiation of treatment to improve survival and quality of life of patients with colorectal cancer.

Mortality rate and predictors of colorectal cancer patients in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) has been increasing in Sub-Saharan countries, including Ethiopia. However, the real mortality rate for CRC patients in Ethiopia has not been established. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine the overall mortality rate and identify predictors among CRC patients in Ethiopia.

METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus, Science Direct, and Google Scholar were searched to identify relevant articles. The preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) were followed. The quality of the included studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale Critical Appraisal checklist. A random effect model was used to estimate the pooled mortality rate and adjusted hazard ratio (AHR). Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots and Egger's regression test, while heterogeneity was evaluated through the Cochran Q test and I2 statistics.

RESULTS

After reviewing 74 articles, only 7 studies met the criteria and were included in the analysis. The analysis revealed that the overall mortality rate among CRC patients in Ethiopia was 40.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 32.05, 48.87) while the survival rates at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years were 82.3% (95% CI: 73.33, 91.31), 48.8% (95% CI: 43.35, 54.32), and 26.6% (95% CI: 21.26, 31.91) respectively. Subgroup analysis indicated that studies conducted after 2017 had higher mortality rates compared to those studied earlier (43.0% vs. 38.2%). Older age (AHR: 1.89, 95% CI: 1.27, 2.82); being married (AHR: 2.53, 95% CI: 1.79, 3.57); having comorbidities (AHR: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.45, 2.35); having high CEA levels (AHR: 2.06, CI: 1.35, 3.13); being in stage II (AHR: 4.13, 95% CI: 1.85, 9.22), III (AHR: 8.62, 95% CI: 3.88, 19.15), and IV (AHR: 8.06, CI: 2.89, 22.49) were the most important predictors.

CONCLUSION

In Ethiopia, the mortality rate among individuals diagnosed with CRC is high, with two out of five patients dying from this disease. Age, marital status, CEA level, comorbidities, and cancer stage were identified as predictors of mortality in CRC patients. Therefore, early detection and screening should be prioritized, particularly for older patients, those who are married, have comorbidities, elevated CEA levels, and advanced cancer stages.

Rectal cancer survival and prognostic factors in Iranian population: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Rectal cancer (RC) poses a significant global health challenge, causing substantial morbidity and mortality. This study aims to investigate the survival rates of RC patients and identify the factors that influence their survival. The study considers demographic characteristics, tumor features, and treatment received as the factors under consideration.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on the medical records of 593 RC patients. Data were collected through a comprehensive review of medical records and conducting telephone interviews. Survival rates were estimated using the life table method, and subgroup comparisons were performed using the log-rank test. Cox regression analysis was utilized to assess the independent associations between RC survival time and various covariates.

RESULTS

The study cohort comprised 593 RC patients, with a predominantly male representation. The mean age at diagnosis was 58.18 years, and the majority of patients (78.6 %) underwent surgical interventions. The median age at symptom onset and diagnosis were 58 and 59 years, respectively. Survival rates at 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 10th years were estimated to be 85 %, 59 %, 47 %, and 36 %, respectively. Statistical analysis revealed several significant prognostic factors, including age, education, symptoms, and cancer stage. In the multivariate Cox proportional-hazards analysis, advanced regional stage (HR = 1.54, 95 % CI, 1.13-2.08), presence of metastasis (HR = 3.73, 95 % CI, 2.49-5.58), and age over 70 (HR = 1.65) were associated with a higher risk of mortality.

CONCLUSION

Given the alarming prognosis of RC observed in the study area and the significant delay between symptom onset and diagnosis, it is crucial to address this issue and potentially improve the survival rates of RC patients.

Determining the Risk Factors Affecting on Death Due to Colorectal Cancer Progression: Survival Analysis in the Presence of Competing Risks

PURPOSE

In survival analysis, some patients may be at risk of more than one event, for example cancer-related death and cancer-unrelated death. In this case, if the aim of study becomes to assess the impact of risk factors on different causes of death, the competing risk model should be used rather than classical survival model. The aim of the present study is to determine the risk factors for related and unrelated mortality in patients with colorectal cancer using competing risk regression models.

METHODS

The present retrospective cohort study was carried out on 310 CRC patients. Death due to cancer progression was considered as the interest event, and death due to unrelated cancer was considered as a competing event. Two most popular methods, cause-specific and subdistribution hazard regression model, were used to determine the effect of covariates on incidence and cause-specific hazard. Data analysis was performed using R3.6.2 software and cmprsk and survival packages.

RESULTS

The mean (SD) of patients' age was 55.84 ± 13.2 years and 53.9% of them were male. BMI, T and N stage had a significant effect on both incidence and cause specific hazard of cancer-related death.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study showed that cancer-related death is strongly correlated with under-weight (BMI < 18.5) and advanced clinical stage of the disease in patients with colorectal cancer. So, in the presence of competing events, both types of regression hazard models should be applied to permit a full understanding of the impact of covariates on the incidence and the rate of occurrence of each outcome.

Histological characteristics, survival pattern and prognostic determinants among colorectal cancer patients in Ethiopia: A retrospective cohort study

Background

The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) and associated mortality are rising in low- and middle-income countries. In Ethiopia, colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer morbidity and mortality in both sexes. Although some studies provided estimations on the national burden and regional distribution, the histological characteristics, survival pattern and determinants among colorectal cancer patients are not well-documented.

Aim

This study aimed to describe the histological characteristics, to determine the patterns of survival, and identify factors that determine mortality rate among CRC patients in Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted among CRC patients registered at cancer treatment center of Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital, from January 2012 to December 2016. Data were extracted from a total of 161 patient medical records using a pretested abstraction form and supplemented by phone calls with the patients/caregivers. To determine colorectal cancer specific survival overtime, we performed a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and significance of variation in survival across covariates and treatment categories was tested using log-rank test. A multivariable Cox proportional-hazards model was performed to identify determinants of survival after diagnosis with colorectal cancer.

Results

Overall, the median survival time was 21 months [95%CI: 16-35], with two-, three- and five-year CRC-specific survival rates of 46.8%, 39.5% and 28.7% respectively. In the multivariable Cox regression model, the rate of death due to CRC is significantly higher for patients with elevated baseline carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) = 2.31, 95%CI: 1.27-4.19), stage IV at diagnosis (AHR = 2.66, 95%CI: 1.44-4.91), and mucinous or signet-ring cell carcinoma histology type (AHR = 4.92, 95%CI: 1.75-13.80). Moreover, patients who underwent surgery showed a better survival than those who did not (AHR = 0.35, 95%CI: 0.14-0.88).

Conclusion

In Ethiopia, patients diagnosed with CRC showed a low rate of cancer-specific survival. Histology type, stage of cancer and CEA level at diagnosis, and the type of treatment a patient received significantly determine mortality rate. Hence, cancer screening programs could help to detect the disease at an earlier stage and to initiate available treatments timely so as to extend the lifespan of CRC patients.

Survival Status and Predictors of Mortality Among Colorectal Cancer Patients in Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: A Retrospective Followup Study

Colorectal cancer is one of the commonest cancer types that has a great public health impact both in developed and developing countries. However, in Ethiopia, the survival status of colorectal cancer patients was not well understood. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the survival status and predictors of mortality among colorectal cancer patients in Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in 2019. The institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted with 621 subjects who were selected from patients registered between January 1, 2013 and December 30, 2017 with follow-up until December 30th, 2018. Data were collected from patient record review charts. A Kaplan-Meier analysis with a log-rank test, and bivariate and multivariable analysis using the Cox proportional hazard model were used. Of the 621 colorectal cancer patients who were included in the analysis, 202 (32.5%) died. The overall mortality rate was 20.3% per year (95% CI: 17.7-23.3). The overall survival was 18.1% with median survival time of 34.8 months (95% CI: 30.4-36.8). Comorbidity (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.3-2.5); stage (II [AHR = 3.8, 95% CI: 1.3-11.1], III [AHR = 8.0, 95% CI: 2.8-23.3], IV [AHR = 17.6, 95% CI: 6.1-50.7]); smoking (AHR = 1.6, 95% CI: 1.1-2.3); alcohol consumption (AHR = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.07-2.2); age ≥ 70 (AHR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.02-2.9); and marital status (married [AHR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.5-3.8], widowed [AHR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.2-4.6], divorced [AHR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.1-3.7]) were significant predictors of colorectal cancer mortality. It is crucial to implement early detection and screening, giving priority to rural dweller, comorbid patients and advanced stage diagnosed patients.

A review of incidence and mortality of colorectal, lung, liver, thyroid, and bladder cancers in Iran and compared to other countries

In Iran, a developing country in southwest Asia, an epidemiologic transition is underway from communicable to noncommunicable diseases. In Iran, cancer is the second largest group of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and the third most common cause of death following heart disease, accidents and other natural phenomena. There are some studies reporting an increasing trend in the incidence and mortality rate of a variety of cancers in Iran. Therefore, controlling and preventive interventions pertaining to cancers must be a main priority for health policy and it is recommended that the high-risk population receive earlier screening. In this review, incidence and mortality of colorectal, lung, liver, thyroid, and bladder cancers in Iran are reported.

Do clinicopathologic features of rectal and colon cancer guide us towards distinct malignancies?

Background

Unlike developed countries where studies on all aspects of colorectal cancers are widely numerous, Iran as a Middle Eastern country show very few studies especially ones comparing the differences between colon and rectal cancer. In this study, firstly we report demographic, clinical and pathologic characteristics of patients with rectum and colon cancer and secondly compare these findings in order to investigate probable differences.

Methods

In this cross-sectional study, 238 patients were divided into two groups: the rectal cancer group and the colonic cancer group. Demographic, clinical and pathologic information of patients were statistically compared using Stata version 12.

Results

There were no statistical differences between the two groups regarding age and gender and BMI. Regarding clinical presentation, the proportion of rectal bleeding was significantly higher in colon cancer group (P<0.001). Moreover, abdominal pain was significantly more frequent in colon cancer group (P<0.001). Tumor stage showed statistically difference between the two groups (P=0.02).

Conclusions

We did not find enough evidences to conclude that rectal cancer and colon cancer should be investigated as two distinct malignancies but findings showed significant differences such as stage at diagnosis encouraged us in order to conduct other appropriate studies for better evaluation of this issue.

Do smoking and alcohol behaviours influence GI cancer survival?

Little is known about the role of alcohol and smoking in GI cancer survival compared to GI cancer development. We systematically reviewed the evidence for a role of smoking and alcohol in prognosis among GI cancer patients and inform whether smoking or alcohol cessation interventions or guidelines for GI cancer patients are likely to improve prognosis. A total of 84 relevant studies were identified. Continued smokers, particularly heavy smokers, had worse prognosis than never smokers in most GI cancers. However, more evidence is needed to establish the likely impact of smoking cessation interventions amongst GI cancer patients. Heavy alcohol drinkers had worse prognosis in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma and hepatocellular carcinoma patients. Light alcohol consumption was not associated with worse prognosis from any GI cancer, though further studies are needed. UK guidelines for the general population recommending under 14 units (∼7 drinks) per week may be sufficient for GI cancer patients, until further evidence is available.

JOURNAL CLUB: Value of Quantitative FDG PET/CT Volumetric Biomarkers in Recurrent Colorectal Cancer Patient Survival

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of quantitative PET parameters in the overall survival of patients with recurrent colorectal cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 105 patients with a biopsy-proven recurrence of colorectal cancer who underwent PET/CT were included in the study. A gradient segmentation method was used to calculate maximum and peak standardized uptake values (SUVmax, SUVpeak), total lesion glycolysis (TLGtotal), and metabolic tumor volume (MTVtotal). These parameters were measured for each recurrent lesion at the primary, locoregional, and distant sites. The median follow-up time was 31.3 months. Overall survival (OS) was the primary outcome and was calculated using Kaplan-Meier survival plots and Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

The mean ± SD for SUVmax, SUVpeak, TLGtotal, and MTVtotal of the included patients was 7.3 ± 5.3, 5.3 ± 3.3, 280.8 ± 1181 g, and 79.8 ± 294 mL, respectively. The median OS for patients who were alive was 50 months in comparison with 23.4 months among patients who died. Age (p = 0.041), tumor grade (p = 0.010), median TLG (p = 0.031), and median MTV (p = 0.009) remained significantly associated with OS in the multivariate Cox regression analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis performed on the basis of the median PET/CT parametric values showed that SUVmax (threshold, 5.63; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.7; 95% CI, 1-2.8; p = 0.02), MTVtotal (threshold, 13.85 mL; HR = 2.2; 95% CI, 1.3-3.9; p = 0.003), and TLGtotal (threshold, 36.14 g; HR = 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.3; p = 0.01) were significant predictors of OS during follow-up. An integrated risk stratification model with SUVmax and MTVtotal into three subgroups predicted patient survival outcomes (HR = 1.8; 95% CI, 1.25-2.65; log-rank p = 0.003).

CONCLUSION

SUVmax, MTVtotal, TLGtotal, and integrated score with FDG avidity and total tumor burden provide survival information for patients with biopsy-proven recurrent colorectal cancer.