Do Less Harm: Evaluating HIV Programmatic Alternatives in Response to Cutbacks in Foreign Aid

Evaluating Point-of-Care Nucleic Acid Tests in Adult Human Immunodeficiency Virus Diagnostic Strategies: A Côte d'Ivoire Modeling Analysis

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnostic strategy requires 6 rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). Point-of-care nucleic acid tests (POC NATs) are costlier, less sensitive, but more specific than RDTs.

METHODS

We simulated a 1-time screening process in Côte d'Ivoire (CI; undiagnosed prevalence: 1.8%), comparing WHO- and CI-recommended RDT-based strategies (RDT-WHO, RDT-CI) and an alternative: POC NAT to resolve RDT discordancy (NAT-Resolve). Costs included assays (RDT: $1.47; POC NAT: $27.92), antiretroviral therapy ($6-$22/month), and HIV care ($27-$38/month). We modeled 2 sensitivity/specificity scenarios: high-performing (RDT: 99.9%/99.1%; POC NAT: 95.0%/100.0%) and low-performing (RDT: 91.1%/82.9%; POC NAT: 93.3%/99.5%). Outcomes included true-positive (TP), false-positive (FP), true-negative (TN), or false-negative (FN) results; life expectancy; costs; and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs: $/year of life saved [YLS]; threshold ≤$1720/YLS [per-capita gross domestic product]).

RESULTS

Model-projected impacts of misdiagnoses were 4.4 years lost (FN vs TP; range, 3.0-13.0 years) and a $5800 lifetime cost increase (FP vs TN; range, $590-$14 680). In the high-performing scenario, misdiagnoses/10 000 000 tested were lowest for NAT-Resolve vs RDT-based strategies (FN: 409 vs 413-429; FP: 14 vs 21-28). Strategies had similar life expectancy (228 months) and lifetime costs ($220/person) among all tested; ICERs were $3450/YLS (RDT-CI vs RDT-WHO) and $120 910/YLS (NAT-Resolve vs RDT-CI). In the low-performing scenario, misdiagnoses were higher (FN: 22 845-30 357; FP: 83 724-112 702) and NAT-Resolve was cost-saving.

CONCLUSIONS

We projected substantial clinical and economic impacts of misdiagnoses. Using POC NAT to resolve RDT discordancy generated the fewest misdiagnoses and was not cost-effective in high-performing scenarios, but may be an important adjunct to existing RDT-based strategies in low-performing scenarios.

When Global ART Budgets Cannot Cover All Patients, Who Should Be Eligible?

BACKGROUND

Widely expected cuts to budgets for global HIV/AIDS response force hard prioritization choices.

SETTING

We examine policies for antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligibility through the lens of the most relevant ethical approaches.

METHODS

We compare earlier ART eligibility to later ART eligibility in terms of saving the most lives, life-years, and quality-adjusted life-years, special consideration for the sickest, special consideration for those who stand to benefit the most, special consideration for recipients' own health needs, and special consideration to avoid denying ART permanently.

RESULTS

We argue that, in most low- and middle-income countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, ethically, ART for sicker patients should come before ART eligibility for healthier ones immediately on diagnosis (namely, before "universal test and treat"). In particular, reserving all ART for sicker patients would usually save more life-years, prioritize the sickest, and display other properties that some central ethical approaches find important, and that concern none-so ethically, it is "cross-theoretically dominant," as we put it.

CONCLUSIONS

In most circumstances of depressed financing in low- and middle-income countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, reserving all ART for sicker patients is more ethical than the current international standard.

Cost-Effectiveness of Accelerated HIV Response Scenarios in Côte d'Ivoire

BACKGROUND

Despite Côte d'Ivoire epidemic being labeled as "generalized," key populations (KPs) are important to overall transmission. Using a dynamic model of HIV transmission, we previously estimated the impact of several treatment-as-prevention strategies that reached-or missed-the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets in different populations groups, including KP and clients of female sex workers (CFSWs). To inform program planning and resources allocation, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of these scenarios.

METHODS

Costing was performed from the provider's perspective. Unit costs were obtained from the Ivorian Programme national de lutte contre le Sida (USD 2015) and discounted at 3%. Net incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) per adult HIV infection prevented and per disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) averted were estimated over 2015-2030.

RESULTS

The 3 most cost-effective and affordable scenarios were the ones that projected current programmatic trends [ICER = $210; 90% uncertainty interval (90% UI): $150-$300], attaining the 90-90-90 objectives among KP and CFSW (ICER = $220; 90% UI: $80-$510), and among KP only (ICER = $290; 90% UI: $90-$660). The least cost-effective scenario was the one that reached the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target accompanied by a 25% point drop in condom use in KP (ICER = $710; 90% UI: $450-$1270). In comparison, the UNAIDS scenario had a net ICER of $570 (90% UI: $390-$900) per DALY averted.

CONCLUSIONS

According to commonly used thresholds, accelerating the HIV response can be considered very cost-effective for all scenarios. However, when balancing epidemiological impact, cost-effectiveness, and affordability, scenarios that sustain both high condom use and rates of viral suppression among KP and CFSW seem most promising in Côte d'Ivoire.

Impact of Health Aid Investments on Public Opinion of the United States: Analysis of Global Attitude Surveys From 45 Countries, 2002-2016

Objectives. To assess whether increasing health aid investments affected public opinion of the United States in recipient populations. Methods. We linked health aid data from the United States to nationally representative opinion poll surveys from 45 countries conducted between 2002 and 2016. We exploited the abrupt and substantial increase in health aid when the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) were launched to assess unique changes in opinions of the United States following program onset. We also ascertained increased exposure to health aid from the United States by systematically searching for mentions of US health aid programs in popular press. Results. Favorability ratings of the United States increased within countries in proportion to health aid and were significantly higher after implementation of PEPFAR and PMI. Higher US health aid was associated with more references to that aid in the popular press. Conclusions. Our study was the first, to our knowledge, to show that US investments in health aid improved the United States' image abroad. Public Health Implications. Sustained global health investments may offer important returns to the United States as well as to the recipient populations.

Risks and Benefits of Dolutegravir- and Efavirenz-Based Strategies for South African Women With HIV of Child-Bearing Potential: A Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

Dolutegravir is superior to efavirenz for HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) but may be associated with an increased risk for neural tube defects (NTDs) in newborns if used by women at conception.

OBJECTIVE

To project clinical outcomes of ART policies for women of child-bearing potential in South Africa.

DESIGN

Model of 3 strategies: efavirenz for all women of child-bearing potential (EFV), dolutegravir for all women of child-bearing potential (DTG), or World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended efavirenz without contraception or dolutegravir with contraception (WHO approach).

DATA SOURCES

Published data on NTD risks (efavirenz, 0.05%; dolutegravir, 0.67% [Tsepamo study]), 48-week ART efficacy with initiation (efavirenz, 60% to 91%; dolutegravir, 96%), and age-stratified fertility rates (2 to 139 per 1000 women).

TARGET POPULATION

3.1 million South African women with HIV (aged 15 to 49 years) starting or continuing first-line ART, and their children.

TIME HORIZON

5 years.

PERSPECTIVE

Societal.

INTERVENTION

EFV, DTG, and WHO approach.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Deaths among women and children, sexual and pediatric HIV transmissions, and NTDs.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Compared with EFV, DTG averted 13 700 women's deaths (0.44% decrease) and 57 700 sexual HIV transmissions, but increased total pediatric deaths by 4400 because of more NTDs. The WHO approach offered some benefits compared with EFV, averting 4900 women's deaths and 20 500 sexual transmissions while adding 300 pediatric deaths. Overall, combined deaths among women and children were lowest with DTG (358 000 deaths) compared with the WHO approach (362 800 deaths) or EFV (367 300 deaths).

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Women's deaths averted with DTG exceeded pediatric deaths added with EFV unless dolutegravir-associated NTD risk was 1.5% or greater.

LIMITATION

Uncertainty in NTD risks and dolutegravir efficacy in resource-limited settings, each examined in sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

Although NTD risks may be higher with dolutegravir than efavirenz, dolutegravir will lead to many fewer deaths among women, as well as fewer overall HIV transmissions. These results argue against a uniform policy of avoiding dolutegravir in women of child-bearing potential.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; Massachusetts General Hospital; and Harvard University Center for AIDS Research.

Mathematical modelling to inform 'treat all' implementation in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review

OBJECTIVE

Despite widespread uptake, only half of sub-Saharan African countries have fully implemented the World Health Organization's 'treat all' policy, hindering achievement of global HIV targets. We examined literature on mathematical modelling studies that sought to inform scale-up and implementation of 'treat all' in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review, a research synthesis to assess emerging evidence and identify gaps, of peer-reviewed literature, extracting study characteristics on 'treat all' policies and assumptions, setting, key populations, outcomes and findings. Studies were narratively summarised and potential gaps characterised.

RESULTS

We identified 16 studies examining 'treat all' alone (n=12) or with expanded testing (n=7) and/or care continuum improvements (n=6). Twelve studies examined 'treat all' for Southern African countries, while none did so for Central Africa. Four included the role of resistance; one evaluated any key population. A range of health and economic outcomes were reported, although fewer studies formally assessed budget impact. Fourteen studies involved co-authors with any in-country affiliation; one study also had co-authors with local government affiliation. Overall, 'treat all' improves health outcomes and is cost-effective compared to deferred HIV treatment; 'treat all' with expanded testing or care continuum improvements may provide further health benefits. However, studies generally used optimistic assumptions about the implementation of expanded testing or care continuum improvements.

CONCLUSIONS

The modelling literature demonstrates improved health and economic benefits of 'treat all'. Using mathematical modelling to inform real-world implementation of 'treat all' requires realistic assumptions about expanded testing and care continuum interventions across a wide range of settings and populations.

The impact of HIV prevalence, conflict, corruption, and GDP/capita on treatment cascades: data from 137 countries

OBJECTIVE

In 2014, UNAIDS and partners set the 90-90-90 targets for the HIV treatment cascade. Multiple social, political and structural factors might influence progress towards these targets. We assessed how close countries and regions are to reaching these targets, and compared cascade outcomes with HIV prevalence, gross domestic product (GDP)/capita, conflict and corruption.

METHODS

Country-level HIV cascade data on diagnosis, ART coverage and viral suppression, from 2010 to 2016 were extracted from national reports, published papers and the www.AIDSinfoOnline database, and analysed. Weighted least-squares regression was used to assess predictors of cascade achievement: region, HIV prevalence, GDP/capita, the 2016 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), which is an international ranking system, and the 2016 Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks all countries based on three main categories: societal safety, militarisation and conflict.

RESULTS

Data were available for diagnosis for 84 countries, ART coverage for 137 countries, and viral suppression for 94 countries. Regions with the lowest ART coverage were South-east Asia and Pacific (36%), Eastern Europe and Central Asia (17%), and Middle East and North Africa (13%). Lower HIV prevalence was associated with poorer cascade results. Countries with higher GDP/capita achieved higher ART coverage (P<0.001). Furthermore, countries with lower levels of peace and higher corruption had lower ART coverage (P<0.001). Countries with a GPI >2.5 all had ART coverage of <40%.

CONCLUSION

Only one country has reached the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. International comparison remains difficult due to heterogeneous data reporting. Difficulty meeting UNAIDS targets is associated with lower GDP/capita, lower HIV prevalence, higher corruption and conflict levels.

Despite Gains, the War on HIV Is Far From Over: With No Cure in Sight, Experts Urge Early Diagnosis and Prompt Treatment With Better Adherence

Although a significant increase in life expectancy for people with human immunodeficiency virus was reported last spring, experts in the U.S. caution that the results are not a cause for complacency. Efforts to develop a vaccine and a cure remain essential, as do efforts to develop interventions that may improve adherence.

"cART intensification by the HIV-1 Tat B clade vaccine: progress to phase III efficacy studies"

INTRODUCTION

In spite of its success at suppressing HIV replication, combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) only partially reduces immune dysregulation and loss of immune functions. These cART-unmet needs appear to be due to persistent virus replication and cell-to-cell transmission in reservoirs, and are causes of increased patients' morbidity and mortality. Up to now, therapeutic interventions aimed at cART-intensification by attacking the virus reservoir have failed.

AREAS COVERED

We briefly review the rationale and clinical development of Tat therapeutic vaccine in cART-treated subjects in Italy and South Africa (SA). Vaccination with clade-B Tat induced cross-clade neutralizing antibodies, immune restoration, including CD4⁺ T cell increase particularly in low immunological responders, and reduction of proviral DNA. Phase III efficacy trials in SA are planned both in adult and pediatric populations.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

We propose the Tat therapeutic vaccine as a pathogenesis-driven intervention that effectively intensifies cART and may lead to a functional cure and provide new perspectives for prevention and virus eradication strategies.