Evaluating tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Haiti from 2018 to 2019: A competing risk analysis

Objectives

This study assesses tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes in Haiti.

Methods

Data from drug-susceptible patients with TB (2018-2019) were analyzed using the Fine & Gray model with multiple imputation.

Results

Of the 16,545 patients, 14.7% had concurrent HIV coinfection, with a 66.2% success rate. The median treatment duration was 5 months, with patients averaging 30 years (with an interquartile range of 22-42 years). The estimated hazard of achieving a successful treatment outcome decreased by 2.5% and 8.1% for patients aged 45 and 60 years, respectively, compared with patients aged 30 years. Male patients had a 6.5% lower estimated hazard of success than their female counterparts. In addition, patients coinfected with HIV experienced a 35.3% reduction in the estimated hazard of achieving a successful treatment outcome compared with those with a negative HIV serologic status.

Conclusions

Integrated health care approaches should be implemented, incorporating innovative solutions, such as machine learning algorithms combined with geographic information systems and non-conventional data sources (including social media), to identify TB hotspots and high-burden households.

CARE-radiology statement explanation and elaboration: reporting guideline for radiological case reports

Despite the increasing number of radiological case reports, the majority lack a standardised methodology of writing and reporting. We therefore develop a reporting guideline for radiological case reports based on the CAse REport (CARE) statement. We established a multidisciplinary group of experts, comprising 40 radiologists, methodologists, journal editors and researchers, to develop a reporting guideline for radiological case reports according to the methodology recommended by the Enhancing the QUAlity and Transparency Of health Research network. The Delphi panel was requested to evaluate the significance of a list of elements for potential inclusion in a guideline for reporting mediation analyses. By reviewing the reporting guidelines and through discussion, we initially drafted 46 potential items. Following a Delphi survey and discussion, the final CARE-radiology checklist is comprised of 38 items in 16 domains. CARE-radiology is a comprehensive reporting guideline for radiological case reports developed using a rigorous methodology. We hope that compliance with CARE-radiology will help in the future to improve the completeness and quality of case reports in radiology.

The effects of exercise on insomnia disorders: An umbrella review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To summarize the evidence of various exercise modalities on population with insomnia disorders.

METHOD

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were searched for eligible studies published from inception to October 2022 and updated on September 2023. Systematic reviews with meta-analyses and randomized controlled trials designed to investigate the effect of various exercise modalities on population with insomnia were eligible.

RESULTS

A total of 4 SRs with (very) low methodological quality and 1034 participants in 10 network meta-analyses explored the association between different types and intensity exercise modalities with insomnia disorders. Various exercise modalities could significantly improve total sleep time and sleep quality and alleviate insomnia severity. Compared to passive control, moderate aerobic exercise, moderate aerobic exercise combined with light intensity strength and mind-body exercise can improve sleep efficiency and reduce wake after sleep onset by objectively measured. Moderate intensity strength, light intensity strength and mind-body exercise can improve sleep efficiency subjectively measured; mind-body exercise can reduce sleep onset latency and wake time after sleep onset, and increase total sleep time; moderate aerobic exercise can reduce sleep onset latency. Moderate intensity strength, light intensity strength, mind body exercise and moderate aerobic exercise combined with light intensity strength can the severity of insomnia and improv sleep quality.

CONCLUSION

Exercise had a positive effect on relief insomnia and improve sleep quality. Moderate aerobic exercise, mind-body exercise and moderate aerobic exercise combined with light intensity strength play an important role in improving the sleep quality in people with insomnia disorders.

The spatial spread of HIV in Malawi: An individual-based mathematical model

Background

The prevalence of HIV varies greatly between and within countries. We aimed to build a comprehensive mathematical modelling tool capable of exploring the reasons of this heterogeneity and test its applicability by simulating the Malawian HIV epidemic.

Methods

We developed a flexible individual-based mathematical model for HIV transmission that comprises a spatial representation and individual-level determinants. We tested this model by calibrating it to the HIV epidemic in Malawi and exploring whether the heterogeneity in HIV prevalence could be reproduced. We ran the model for 1975-2030 with five alternative realizations of the geographical structure and mobility: (I) no geographical structure; 28 administrative districts including (II) only permanent inter-district relocations, (III) inter-district permanent relocations and casual sexual relationships, or (IV) permanent relocations between districts and to/from abroad and inter-district casual sex; and (V) a grid of 10 × 10km2 cells, with permanent relocations and between-cell casual relationships. We assumed HIV was present in 1975 in the districts with >10 % prevalence in 2010. We calibrated the models to national and district-level prevalence estimates.

Results

Reaching the national prevalence required all adults to have at least 22 casual sex acts/year until 1990. Models II, III and V reproduced the geographical heterogeneity in prevalence in 2010 to some extent if between-district relationships were excluded (Model II; 4.9 %-21.1 %). Long-distance casual partnership mixing mitigated the differences in prevalence substantially (range across districts 4.1%-18.9 % in 2010 in Model III; 4.0%-17.6 % in Model V); with international migration the differences disappeared (Model IV; range across districts 6.9%-13.3 % in 2010). National prevalence decreased to 5 % by 2030.

Conclusion

Earlier introduction of HIV into the Southern part of Malawi may cause some level of heterogeneity in HIV prevalence. Other factors such as sociobehavioural characteristics are likely to have a major impact and need investigation.

Differences between persons with and without disability in HIV prevalence, testing, treatment, and care cascade in Tanzania: a cross-sectional study using population-based data

BACKGROUND

Persons with disability may have a higher HIV prevalence and be less likely than persons without disability to know their HIV-positive status, access antiretroviral therapy (ART), and suppress their HIV viral load (HIV care cascade). However, studies examining differences between persons with and without disability in HIV prevalence and the HIV care cascade are lacking. Using the Tanzania HIV Impact Survey (THIS) data collected between October 2016 and August 2017, we assessed differences in HIV prevalence and progress towards achieving the 2020 HIV care cascade target between persons with and without disability.

METHODS

Using the Washington Group Short Set (WG-SS) Questions on Disability, we defined disability as having a functional difficulty in any of the six life domains (seeing, hearing, walking/climbing, remembering/ concentrating, self-care, and communicating). We classified respondents as disabled if they responded having either "Some Difficulty", "A lot of difficulties" or "Unable to" in any of the WG-SS Questions. We presented the sample characteristics by disability status and analyzed the achievement of the cascade target by disability status, and sex. We used multivariable logistic regressions, and adjusted for age, sex, rural-urban residence, education, and wealth quintile.

RESULTS

A total of 31,579 respondents aged 15 years and older had HIV test results. Of these 1,831 tested HIV-positive, corresponding to an estimated HIV prevalence of 4.9% (CI: 4.5 - 5.2%) among the adult population in Tanzania. The median age of respondents who tested HIV-positive was 32 years (with IQR of 21-45 years). HIV prevalence was higher (5.7%, 95% CI: 5.3-7.4%) among persons with disability than persons without disability (4.3%, 95% CI: 4.0 - 4.6%). Before adjustment, compared to women without disability, more women with disability were aware of their HIV-positive status (n = 101, 79.0%, 95% CI: 68.0-87.0% versus n = 703, 63.0%, 95% CI: 59.1-66.7%) and accessed ART more frequently (n = 98, 98.7%, 95% CI: 95.3-99.7% versus n = 661, 94.7%, 95% CI: 92.6-96.3%). After adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics, the odds of having HIV and of accessing ART did not differ between persons with and without disability. However, PLHIV with disability had higher odds of being aware of their HIV-positive status (aOR 1.69, 95% 1.05-2.71) than PLHIV without disability. Men living with HIV and with disability had lower odds (aOR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.06-0.86) to suppress HIV viral loads than their counterparts without disability.

CONCLUSION

We found no significant differences in the odds of having HIV and of accessing ART between persons with and without disability in Tanzania. While PLHIV and disability, were often aware of their HIV-positive status than their non-disabled counterparts, men living with HIV and with disability may have been disadvantaged in having suppressed HIV viral loads. These differences are correctable with disability-inclusive HIV programming. HIV surveys around the world should include questions on disability to measure potential differences in HIV prevalence and in attaining the 2025 HIV care cascade target between persons with and without disability.

Molnupiravir for the treatment of non-severe COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 14 randomized trials with 34 570 patients

BACKGROUND

Molnupiravir has been considered a promising candidate for COVID-19. Its efficacy and safety in non-severe COVID-19 patients and the differences between patients with different risk factors need further evaluation.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials that allocated adult patients with non-severe COVID-19 to molnupiravir or a control. We used random-effects models, and conducted subgroup analyses and meta-regression for COVID-19 patients with high-risk factors. The GRADE approach was used to rate the certainty of evidence.

RESULTS

Fourteen trials with 34 570 patients were included. Moderate- to low-certainty evidence showed that molnupiravir was associated with a reduction in the risk of hospitalization (relative risk [RR] = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.47-0.85), risk of mechanical ventilation (RR = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.19-0.72) and time to symptom resolution (mean differences [MD] = -2.91 days, 95% CI: -3.66 to -2.16). However, no significant differences were found in adverse events, all-cause mortality, rate of and time to viral clearance, or duration of hospitalization. For the rate of viral clearance, subgroup effects were found between trials with low and high risk of bias (P = 0.001) and between trials with male or female majority (P < 0.001). For admission to hospital, subgroup effects were also found between trials with ≥50% and <50% of the participants being female (P = 0.04). Meta-regression showed a significant association between higher trial mean age and elevated risk of hospitalization (P = 0.011), and female majority and elevated risk of hospitalization (P = 0.011).

CONCLUSIONS

Molnupiravir was found to be effective in non-severe COVID-19, but the efficacy varied with age and sex.

Treatment effect of remdesivir on the mortality of hospitalised COVID-19 patients in Switzerland across different patient groups: a tree-based model analysis

AIMS OF THE STUDY

Remdesivir has shown benefits against COVID-19. However, it remains unclear whether, to what extent, and among whom remdesivir can reduce COVID-19-related mortality. We explored whether the treatment response to remdesivir differed by patient characteristics.

METHODS

We analysed data collected from a hospital surveillance study conducted in 21 referral hospitals in Switzerland between 2020 and 2022. We applied model-based recursive partitioning to group patients by the association between treatment levels and mortality. We included either treatment (levels: none, remdesivir within 7 days of symptom onset, remdesivir after 7 days, or another treatment), age and sex, or treatment only as regression variables. Candidate partitioning variables included a range of risk factors and comorbidities (and age and sex unless included in regression). We repeated the analyses using local centring to correct the results for the propensity to receive treatment.

RESULTS

Overall (n = 21,790 patients), remdesivir within 7 days was associated with increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratios 1.28-1.54 versus no treatment). The CURB-65 score caused the most instability in the regression parameters of the model. When adjusted for age and sex, patients receiving remdesivir within 7 days of onset had higher mortality than those not treated in all identified eight patient groups. When age and sex were included as partitioning variables instead, the number of groups increased to 19-20; in five to six of those branches, mortality was lower among patients who received early remdesivir. Factors determining the groups where remdesivir was potentially beneficial included the presence of oncological comorbidities, male sex, and high age.

CONCLUSIONS

Some subgroups of patients, such as individuals with oncological comorbidities or elderly males, may benefit from remdesivir.

Historical visit attendance as predictor of treatment interruption in South African HIV patients: Extension of a validated machine learning model

Retention of antiretroviral (ART) patients is a priority for achieving HIV epidemic control in South Africa. While machine-learning methods are being increasingly utilised to identify high risk populations for suboptimal HIV service utilisation, they are limited in terms of explaining relationships between predictors. To further understand these relationships, we implemented machine learning methods optimised for predictive power and traditional statistical methods. We used routinely collected electronic medical record (EMR) data to evaluate longitudinal predictors of lost-to-follow up (LTFU) and temporal interruptions in treatment (IIT) in the first two years of treatment for ART patients in the Gauteng and North West provinces of South Africa. Of the 191,162 ART patients and 1,833,248 visits analysed, 49% experienced at least one IIT and 85% of those returned for a subsequent clinical visit. Patients iteratively transition in and out of treatment indicating that ART retention in South Africa is likely underestimated. Historical visit attendance is shown to be predictive of IIT using machine learning, log binomial regression and survival analyses. Using a previously developed categorical boosting (CatBoost) algorithm, we demonstrate that historical visit attendance alone is able to predict almost half of next missed visits. With the addition of baseline demographic and clinical features, this model is able to predict up to 60% of next missed ART visits with a sensitivity of 61.9% (95% CI: 61.5-62.3%), specificity of 66.5% (95% CI: 66.4-66.7%), and positive predictive value of 19.7% (95% CI: 19.5-19.9%). While the full usage of this model is relevant for settings where infrastructure exists to extract EMR data and run computations in real-time, historical visits attendance alone can be used to identify those at risk of disengaging from HIV care in the absence of other behavioural or observable risk factors.

Socioeconomic inequalities in cervical precancer screening among women in Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe: analysis of Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys

OBJECTIVES

We examined age, residence, education and wealth inequalities and their combinations on cervical precancer screening probabilities for women. We hypothesised that inequalities in screening favoured women who were older, lived in urban areas, were more educated and wealthier.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study using Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment data.

SETTING

Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Differences in screening rates were analysed using multivariable logistic regressions, controlling for age, residence, education and wealth. Inequalities in screening probability were estimated using marginal effects models.

PARTICIPANTS

Women aged 25-49 years, reporting screening.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Self-reported screening rates, and their inequalities in percentage points, with differences of 20%+ defined as high inequality, 5%-20% as medium, 0%-5% as low.

RESULTS

The sample size of participants ranged from 5882 in Ethiopia to 9186 in Tanzania. The screening rates were low in the surveyed countries, ranging from 3.5% (95% CI 3.1% to 4.0%) in Rwanda to 17.1% (95% CI 15.8% to 18.5%) and 17.4% (95% CI 16.1% to 18.8%) in Zambia and Zimbabwe. Inequalities in screening rates were low based on covariates. Combining the inequalities led to significant inequalities in screening probabilities between women living in rural areas aged 25-34 years, with a primary education level, from the lowest wealth quintile, and women living in urban areas aged 35-49 years, with the highest education level, from the highest wealth quintile, ranging from 4.4% in Rwanda to 44.6% in Zimbabwe.

CONCLUSIONS

Cervical precancer screening rates were inequitable and low. No country surveyed achieved one-third of the WHO's target of screening 70% of eligible women by 2030. Combining inequalities led to high inequalities, preventing women who were younger, lived in rural areas, were uneducated, and from the lowest wealth quintile from screening. Governments should include and monitor equity in their cervical precancer screening programmes.

Development of the Scientific, Transparent and Applicable Rankings (STAR) tool for clinical practice guidelines

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to develop a comprehensive instrument for evaluating and ranking clinical practice guidelines, named Scientific, Transparent and Applicable Rankings tool (STAR), and test its reliability, validity, and usability.

METHODS

This study set up a multidisciplinary working group including guideline methodologists, statisticians, journal editors, clinicians, and other experts. Scoping review, Delphi methods, and hierarchical analysis were used to develop the STAR tool. We evaluated the instrument's intrinsic and interrater reliability, content and criterion validity, and usability.

RESULTS

STAR contained 39 items grouped into 11 domains. The mean intrinsic reliability of the domains, indicated by Cronbach's α coefficient, was 0.588 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.414, 0.762). Interrater reliability as assessed with Cohen's kappa coefficient was 0.774 (95% CI: 0.740, 0.807) for methodological evaluators and 0.618 (95% CI: 0.587, 0.648) for clinical evaluators. The overall content validity index was 0.905. Pearson's r correlation for criterion validity was 0.885 (95% CI: 0.804, 0.932). The mean usability score of the items was 4.6 and the median time spent to evaluate each guideline was 20 min.

CONCLUSION

The instrument performed well in terms of reliability, validity, and efficiency, and can be used for comprehensively evaluating and ranking guidelines.

Reporting standards for child health research were few and poorly implemented

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to identify existing reporting standards for child health research, assess the robustness of the standards development process, and evaluate the dissemination of these standards.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We searched MEDLINE, the EQUATOR Network Library, and Google to identify reporting standards for child health research studies. We assessed the adherence of the Guidance for Developers of Health Research Reporting Guidelines (GDHRG) by the identified reporting standards. We also assessed the use of the identified reporting standards by primary research studies, and the endorsement of the included reporting standards by journals.

RESULTS

We identified six reporting standards for child health research, including two under development. Among the four available standards their median adherence to the 18 main steps of the GDHRG was 58.35% (range: 27.8%-83.3%). None of these four reporting standards had been endorsed by pediatric journals indexed by the Science Citation Index. Only 26 primary research studies declared that they followed one of the reporting standards.

CONCLUSION

There is a quantitative and qualitative paucity of well-developed reporting standards for child health research. The available standards are also poorly implemented. This situation demands an urgent need to develop robust standards and ensure their implementation.

Sub optimal HIV status ascertainment at antenatal clinics and the impact on HIV prevalence estimates: A cross sectional study

BACKGROUND

While many countries including Kenya transitioned from sentinel surveillance to the use of routine antenatal care (ANC) data to estimate the burden of HIV, countries in Sub Saharan Africa reported several challenges of this transition, including low uptake of HIV testing and sub national / site-level differences in HIV prevalence estimates. In Kenya voluntary HIV testing is offered to all 1st ANC clients. However, some women may decline testing. We aim to predict the HIV positivity (as a proxy of prevalence) at ANC assuming 100% uptake of HIV testing and compare this to the observed positivity.

METHODS

Using a cross sectional study design, we examine routine data on HIV testing among all women attending ANC in Kwale County, Kenya, for the period January 2015 to December 2019.We used a generalized estimating equation with binomial distribution to model the observed HIV prevalence as explained by HIV status ascertainment. We then used marginal standardization to predict the HIV prevalence at 100% HIV status ascertainment and make recommendations to improve the utility of ANC routine data for HIV surveillance.

RESULTS

HIV testing at ANC was at 91.3%, slightly above the global target of 90%. If there was 100% HIV status ascertainment at ANC, the HIV prevalence would be 2.7% (95% CI 2.3-3.2). This was 0.3% lower than the observed prevalence. Across the yearly predictions, there was no difference between the observed and predicted values except for 2018 where the HIV prevalence was underestimated with an absolute bias of -0.2 percent. This implies missed opportunities for identifying new HIV infections in the year 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

Imperfect HIV status ascertainment at ANC overestimates HIV prevalence among women attending ANC in Kwale County. However, the use of ANC routine data may underestimate the true population prevalence. There is need to address both community level and health facility level barriers to the uptake of ANC services.

Socioeconomic inequalities in the 90-90-90 target, among people living with HIV in 12 sub-Saharan African countries - Implications for achieving the 95-95-95 target - Analysis of population-based surveys

BACKGROUND

Inequalities undermine efforts to end AIDS by 2030. We examined socioeconomic inequalities in the 90-90-90 target among people living with HIV (PLHIV) -men (MLHIV), women (WLHIV) and adolescents (ALHIV).

METHODS

We analysed the available Population HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) survey data for each of the 12 sub-Saharan African countries, collected between 2015 and 2018 to estimate the attainment of each step of the 90-90-90 target by wealth quintiles. We constructed concentration curves, computed concentration indices (CIX) -a negative (positive) CIX indicated pro-poor (pro-rich) inequalities- and identified factors associated with, and contributing to inequality.

FINDINGS

Socioeconomic inequalities in achieving the 90-90-90 target components among PLHIV were noted in 11 of the 12 countries surveyed: not in Rwanda. Awareness of HIV positive status was pro-rich in 5/12 countries (Côte d'Ivoire, Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi, and Zambia) ranging from CIX=0·085 (p< 0·05) in Tanzania for PLHIV, to CIX = 0·378 (p<0·1) in Côte d'Ivoire for ALHIV. It was pro-poor in 5/12 countries (Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Malawi, Namibia and Eswatini), ranging from CIX = -0·076 (p<0·05) for PLHIV in Eswatini, and CIX = -0·192 (p<0·05) for WLHIV in Ethiopia. Inequalities in accessing ART were pro-rich in 5/12 countries (Cameroun, Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi and Zambia) ranging from CIX=0·101 (p<0·05) among PLHIV in Zambia to CIX=0·774 (p<0·1) among ALHIV in Cameroun and pro-poor in 4/12 countries (Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Lesotho and Eswatini), ranging from CIX = -0·072 (p<0·1) among PLHIV in Zimbabwe to CIX = -0·203 (p<0·05) among WLHIV in Tanzania. Inequalities in HIV viral load suppression were pro-rich in 3/12 countries (Ethiopia, Uganda, and Lesotho), ranging from CIX = 0·089 (p< 0·1) among PLHIV in Uganda to CIX = 0·275 (p<0·01) among WLHIV in Ethiopia. Three countries (Tanzania CIX = 0·069 (p< 0·5), Uganda CIX = 0·077 (p< 0·1), and Zambia CIX = 0·116 (p< 0·1)) reported pro-rich and three countries (Côte d'Ivoire CIX = -0·125 (p< 0·1), Namibia CIX = -0·076 (p< 0·05), and Eswatini CIX = -0·050 (p< 0·05) pro-poor inequalities for the cumulative CIX for HIV viral load suppression. The decomposition analysis showed that age, rural-urban residence, education, and wealth were associated with and contributed the most to inequalities observed in achieving the 90-90-90 target.

INTERPRETATION

Some PLHIV in 11 of 12 countries were not receiving life-saving HIV testing, treatment, or achieving HIV viral load suppression due to socioeconomic inequalities. Socioeconomic factors were associated with and explained the inequalities observed in the 90-90-90 target among PLHIV. Governments should scale up equitable 95-95-95 target interventions, prioritizing the reduction of age, rural-urban, education and wealth-related inequalities. Research is needed to understand interventions to reduce socioeconomic inequities in achieving the 95-95-95 target.

FUNDING

This study was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant 202660).

Women with disabilities in hearing: the last mile in the elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV - a cross-sectional study from Zambia

This article explored the differences in HIV testing in the elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (EMTCT) between women with and without disabilities aged 16-55 years, reported being pregnant and receiving the social cash transfers (SCT) social safety nets in Luapula province, Zambia. We tested for associations between HIV testing in EMTCT and disability using logistic regression analyses. We calculated a functional score for each woman to determine if they had mild, moderate or severe difficulties and controlled for age, intimate partner sexual violence, and the SCT receipt. Of 1692 women, 29.8% (504) reported a disability, 724 (42.8%) mild, 203 (12.0%) moderate, and 83 (4.9%) severe functional difficulties (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.33; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.70). Women with moderate (aOR 2.04; 95% CI 1.44-2.88) or mild difficulties (aOR 1.66; 95% CI 1.32-2.08) or with a disability in cognition (aOR 1.67 95% CI 1.22-2.29) reported testing more for HIV than women without disabilities; Women with a disability in hearing (aOR 0.36 CI 0.16-0.80) reported testing less for HIV. Disability is common among women receiving the SCT in the study area accessing HIV testing in the EMTCT setting. HIV testing in EMTCT is challenging for women with disabilities in hearing.

Clinical manifestations of COVID-19: An overview of 102 systematic reviews with evidence mapping

OBJECTIVE

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread worldwide, but there is so far no comprehensive analysis of all known symptoms of the disease. Our study aimed to present a comprehensive picture of the clinical symptoms of COVID-19 using an evidence map.

METHODS

We systematically searched MEDLINE via PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane library from their inception to March 16, 2021. We included systematic reviews reporting the clinical manifestations of COVID-19 patients. We followed the PRISMA guidelines, and the study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment were done by two individuals independently. We assessed the methodological quality of the studies using AMSTAR. We visually presented the clinical symptoms of COVID-19 and their prevalence.

RESULTS

A total of 102 systematic reviews were included, of which, 68 studies (66.7%) were of high quality, 19 studies (18.6%) of medium quality, and 15 studies (14.7%) of low quality. We identified a total of 74 symptoms including 17 symptoms of the respiratory system, 21 symptoms of the neurological system, 10 symptoms of the gastrointestinal system, 16 cutaneous symptoms, and 10 ocular symptoms. The most common symptoms were fever (67 studies, ranging 16.3%-91.0%, pooled prevalence: 64.6%, 95%CI, 61.3%-67.9%), cough (68 studies, ranging 30.0%-72.2%, pooled prevalence: 53.6%, 95%CI, 52.1%-55.1%), muscle soreness (56 studies, ranging 3.0%-44.0%, pooled prevalence: 18.7%, 95%CI, 16.3%-21.3%), and fatigue (52 studies, ranging 3.3%-58.5%, pooled prevalence: 29.4%, 95%CI, 27.5%-31.3%). The prevalence estimates for COVID-19 symptoms were generally lower in neonates, children and adolescents, and pregnant women than in the general populations.

CONCLUSION

At least 74 different clinical manifestations are associated with COVID-19. Fever, cough, muscle soreness, and fatigue are the most common, but attention should also be paid to the rare symptoms that can help in the early diagnosis of the disease.

Developing the RIGHT-COI&F extension for the reporting conflicts of interest and funding in practice guidelines: study protocol

Background

Conflicts of interest (COI) and funding may influence the development of practice guidelines, but there are no internationally endorsed guidelines specifically focusing on the reporting on issues related to COI and funding in practice guidelines. Our aim is to develop an extension of the essential Reporting Items of Practice Guidelines in Healthcare (RIGHT) for COIs and Funding in practice guidelines (i.e., RIGHT-COI&F).

Methods

We will follow the Enhancing the QUAlity and Transparency Of health Research (EQUATOR) network’s toolkit for developing a reporting guideline in six stages: (I) identifying the need for the extension; (II) registering the project and setting up working groups; (III) collecting the initial items; (IV) reaching consensus on the items to be included; (V) revision and formulation of the final checklist; and (VI) dissemination and implementation. We intend to form a multidisciplinary international team of experts to collect and evaluate the items and plan to complete the full reporting guideline in about 2 years.

Discussion

The RIGHT-COI&F statement will help guideline developers improve their reporting of issues related to COIs and funding, and subsequently improve the reporting quality of their guidelines. Journals editors, guideline users and evaluators will benefit from a more complete and transparent reporting of COI.

Trial Registration

We have registered the protocol on the EQUATOR network (https://www.equator-network.org/library/reporting-guidelines-under-development/reporting-guidelines-under-development-for-other-study-designs/#RIGHT-COI).

Factors associated with HIV viral suppression among children and adults receiving antiretroviral therapy in Malawi in 2021: Evidence from the Laboratory Management Information System

OBJECTIVE

To describe the prevalence of HIV viral suppression and assess the factors associated with HIV viral suppression among persons receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Malawi in 2021.

METHODS

Implementation study using routinely collected patient-level HIV RNA-PCR test result data extracted from the national Laboratory Management Information System (LIMS) database managed by the Department of HIV/AIDS in 2021. We calculated frequencies, proportions and odds ratios (OR) of HIV viral suppression with their associated 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs). We performed a random-effects logistic regression to determine the risk factors associated with HIV viral suppression among ART patients, controlling for the spatial autocorrelation between districts and adjusting for other variables.

RESULTS

We evaluated 515,797 adults and children receiving ART and having a viral load test in 2021. Of these, 92.8% had HIV viral suppression. ART patients living in urban areas had lower likelihood of HIV viral suppression than those living in rural areas (adjusted OR [aOR] = 0.95, 95%CI: 0.92-0.99, p = 0.01). There was an increasing trend in HIV viral suppression with increasing ART duration. Routine VL monitoring samples were 39% more likely to have suppressed VL values than confirmatory HIV VL monitoring samples (aOR = 1.39; 95%CI: 1.34-1.43, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

This is the first national analysis of Malawi HIV VL data from LIMS. Our findings show the need to particularly consider the urban residents, those below 20 years, males, those on ART for less than a year as well as those on specific ARV regimens in order to persistently suppress HIV VL and consequently achieve the goal of achieving HIV VL suppression by 2030.

Use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and adverse outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There are concerns that the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) may increase the risk of adverse outcomes among patients with coronavirus COVID-19. This study aimed to synthesize the evidence on associations between the use of NSAIDs and adverse outcomes.

METHODS

A systematic search of WHO COVID-19 Database, Medline, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Embase, China Biology Medicine disc, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, and Wanfang Database for all articles published from January 1, 2020, to November 7, 2021, as well as a supplementary search of Google Scholar. We included all comparative studies that enrolled patients who took NSAIDs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data extraction and quality assessment of methodology of included studies were completed by two reviewers independently. We conducted a meta-analysis on the main adverse outcomes, as well as selected subgroup analyses stratified by the type of NSAID and population (both positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or not).

FINDINGS

Forty comparative studies evaluating 4,867,795 adult cases were identified. Twenty-eight (70%) of the included studies enrolled patients positive to SARS-CoV-2 tests. The use of NSAIDs did not reduce mortality outcomes among people with COVID-19 (number of studies [N] = 29, odds ratio [OR] = 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.75 to 1.14, I²  = 89%). Results suggested that the use of NSAIDs was not significantly associated with higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with or without COVID-19 (N = 10, OR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.86 to 1.07, I²  = 78%; N = 8, aOR = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.94 to 1.09, I²  = 26%), or an increased probability of intensive care unit (ICU) admission (N = 12, OR = 1.28, 95% CI: 0.94 to 1.75, I²  = 82% ; N = 4, aOR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.65 to 1.22, I²  = 60%), requiring mechanical ventilation (N = 11, OR = 1.11, 95% CI: 0.79 to 1.54, I²  = 63%; N = 5, aOR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.52 to 1.24, I²  = 66%), or administration of supplemental oxygen (N = 5, OR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.52 to 1.24, I²  = 63%; N = 2, aOR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.89 to 1.12, I²  = 0%). The subgroup analysis revealed that, compared with patients not using any NSAIDs, the use of ibuprofen (N = 5, OR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.50 to 2.39; N = 4, aOR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.78 to 1.16) and COX-2 inhibitor (N = 4, OR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.35 to 1.11; N = 2, aOR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.45 to 1.18) were not associated with an increased risk of death.

INTERPRETATION

Data suggests that NSAIDs such as ibuprofen, aspirin and COX-2 inhibitor, can be used safely among patients positive to SARS-CoV-2. However, for some of the analyses the number of studies were limited and the quality of evidence was overall low, therefore more research is needed to corroborate these findings.

FUNDING

There was no funding source for this study.

Risk of COVID-19 Transmission Aboard Aircraft: An Epidemiological Analysis Based on the National Health Information Platform

Objectives

This study aims to investigate the risk of COVID-19 transmission on aircraft.

Methods

We obtained data on all international flights to Lanzhou, China, from June 1, 2020, to August 1, 2020, through the Gansu Province National Health Information Platform and the official website of the Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We then performed the statistical analysis.

Results

Three international flights arrived in Lanzhou. The flights had a total of 700 passengers, of whom 405 (57.9%) were male, and 80 (11.4%) were children under the age of 14 years. Twenty-seven (3.9%) passengers were confirmed to have COVID-19. Confirmed patients were primarily male (17, 65.4%) with a median age of 27.0 years. Most confirmed cases were seated in the middle rows of economy class or near public facility areas such as restrooms and galleys. The prevalence of COVID-19 did not differ between passengers sitting in the window, aisle, or middle seats. However, compared with passengers sitting in the same row up to 2 rows behind a confirmed case, passengers seated in the 2 rows in front of a confirmed case were at a slightly higher risk of being infected.

Conclusions

COVID-19 may be transmitted during a passenger flight, although there is still no direct evidence.

Prediction of HIV status based on socio-behavioural characteristics in East and Southern Africa

Introduction

High yield HIV testing strategies are critical to reach epidemic control in high prevalence and low-resource settings such as East and Southern Africa. In this study, we aimed to predict the HIV status of individuals living in Angola, Burundi, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, Zambia and Zimbabwe with the highest precision and sensitivity for different policy targets and constraints based on a minimal set of socio-behavioural characteristics.

Methods

We analysed the most recent Demographic and Health Survey from these 10 countries to predict individual’s HIV status using four different algorithms (a penalized logistic regression, a generalized additive model, a support vector machine, and a gradient boosting trees). The algorithms were trained and validated on 80% of the data, and tested on the remaining 20%. We compared the predictions based on the F1 score, the harmonic mean of sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV), and we assessed the generalization of our models by testing them against an independent left-out country. The best performing algorithm was trained on a minimal subset of variables which were identified as the most predictive, and used to 1) identify 95% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) while maximising precision and 2) identify groups of individuals by adjusting the probability threshold of being HIV positive (90% in our scenario) for achieving specific testing strategies.

Results

Overall 55,151 males and 69,626 females were included in the analysis. The gradient boosting trees algorithm performed best in predicting HIV status with a mean F1 score of 76.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 76.0%-77.6%] for males (vs [CI 67.8%-70.6%] for SVM) and 78.8% [CI 78.2%-79.4%] for females (vs [CI 73.4%-75.8%] for SVM). Among the ten most predictive variables for each sex, nine were identical: longitude, latitude and, altitude of place of residence, current age, age of most recent partner, total lifetime number of sexual partners, years lived in current place of residence, condom use during last intercourse and, wealth index. Only age at first sex for male (ranked 10th) and Rohrer’s index for female (ranked 6th) were not similar for both sexes. Our large-scale scenario, which consisted in identifying 95% of all PLHIV, would have required testing 49.4% of males and 48.1% of females while achieving a precision of 15.4% for males and 22.7% for females. For the second scenario, only 4.6% of males and 6.0% of females would have had to be tested to find 55.7% of all males and 50.5% of all females living with HIV.

Conclusions

We trained a gradient boosting trees algorithm to find 95% of PLHIV with a precision twice higher than with general population testing by using only a limited number of socio-behavioural characteristics. We also successfully identified people at high risk of infection who may be offered pre-exposure prophylaxis or voluntary medical male circumcision. These findings can inform the implementation of new high-yield HIV tests and help develop very precise strategies based on low-resource settings constraints.

Associations of Sustainable Development Goals Accelerators With Adolescents’ Well-Being According to Head-of-Household’s Disability Status–A Cross-Sectional Study From Zambia

Objectives: We examined associations between accelerators (interventions impacting ≥2 SDG targets) and SDG-aligned well-being indicators among adolescents 16–24 years old in Zambia.

Methods: We surveyed adults from 1,800 randomly sampled households receiving social cash transfers. We examined associations between accelerators (social cash transfers, life-long learning, mobile phone access) and seven well-being indicators among adolescents using multivariate logistic regressions.

Results: The sample comprised 1,725 adolescents, 881 (51.1%) girls. Mobile phone access was associated with no poverty (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] 2.08, p < 0.001), informal cash transfers (aOR 1.82, p = 0.004), and seeking mental health support (aOR 1.61, p = 0.020). Social cash transfers were associated with no disability-related health restrictions (aOR 2.56, p = 0.004) and lesser odds of seeking mental health support (aOR 0.53, p = 0.029). Life-long learning was associated with informal cash transfers (aOR 3.49, p < 0.001) and lower school enrollment (aOR 0.70, p = 0.004). Adolescents with disabled head-of-household reported worse poverty, good health but less suicidal ideation.

Conclusions: Social cash transfers, life-long learning, and mobile phone access were positively associated with well-being indicators. Adolescents living with disabled head-of-household benefited less. Governments should implement policies to correct disability-related inequalities.

Factors associated with the risk of HIV infection among HIV-exposed infants in Malawi: 2013-2020

BACKGROUND

Despite the availability of individual-level data of infants accessing HIV DNA-PCR testing service, there has been little in-depth analysis of such data. Therefore, we describe trends in risk of HIV infection among Malawi's HIV-exposed infants (HEI) with DNA-PCR HIV test result from 2013 to 2020.

METHODS

This is an implementation study using routinely collected patient-level HIV DNA-PCR test result data extracted from the national Laboratory Management Information System database managed by the Department of HIV/AIDS between 1 January 2013 and 30 June 2020. We calculated frequencies, proportions and odds ratio (OR) with their associated 95% CI. We performed a random-effects logistic regression to determine the risk factors associated with HIV infection in infants, controlling for the spatial autocorrelation between districts and adjusting for other variables.

RESULTS

We evaluated 255 229 HEI across 750 facilities in 28 districts. The HIV DNA-PCR test was performed within 2 months in 57% of the children. The overall HIV prevalence among all tested HEI between 2013 and 2020 was 7.2% (95% CI 7.1% to 7.3%). We observed a decreasing trend in the proportion of HEI that tested HIV positive from 7.0% (95% CI 6.6% to 7.4%) in 2013 to 5.7% (95% CI 5.4% to 5.9%) in 2015 followed by an increase to 9.9% (95% CI 9.6% to 10.2%) in 2017 and thereafter a decreasing trend between 2017 (i.e. 9.72% (95%CI: 9.43-10.01)) and 2020 (i.e. 3.86% (95%CI: 3.34-4.37)). The HIV prevalence increased by age of the HEI. There was spatial heterogeneity of HIV prevalence between districts of Malawi. The prevalence of HIV was higher among the HEI from the Northern region of Malawi.

CONCLUSION

The main findings of the study are that the DNA test is performed within 2 months only in 57% of the children, that the decreasing trend of HIV prevalence among HEI observed up to 2015 was followed by an increase up to 2017 and a decrease afterwards, and that the risk of HIV infection increased with age at HIV testing. We summarised spatial and temporal trends of risk of HIV infection among HEI in Malawi between 2013 and 2020. There is need to ensure that all the HEI are enrolled in HIV care by 8 weeks of age in order to further reduce the risk of HIV in this population.

Geospatial model of COVID-19 spreading and vaccination with event Gillespie algorithm

We have developed a mathematical model and stochastic numerical simulation for the transmission of COVID-19 and other similar infectious diseases that accounts for the geographic distribution of population density, detailed down to the level of location of individuals, and age-structured contact rates. Our analytical framework includes a surrogate model optimization process to rapidly fit the parameters of the model to the observed epidemic curves for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. This toolkit (the model, the simulation code, and the optimizer) is a useful tool for policy makers and epidemic response teams, who can use it to forecast epidemic development scenarios in local settings (at the scale of cities to large countries) and design optimal response strategies. The simulation code also enables spatial visualization, where detailed views of epidemic scenarios are displayed directly on maps of population density. The model and simulation also include the vaccination process, which can be tailored to different levels of efficiency and efficacy of different vaccines. We used the developed framework to generate predictions for the spread of COVID-19 in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, and validated them by comparing the calculated number of cases and recoveries with data from local seroprevalence studies.

Guidelines for the prevention and management of children and adolescents with COVID-19

Children are the future of the world, but their health and future are facing great uncertainty because of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In order to improve the management of children with COVID-19, an international, multidisciplinary panel of experts developed a rapid advice guideline at the beginning of the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020. After publishing the first version of the rapid advice guideline, the panel has updated the guideline by including additional stakeholders in the panel and a comprehensive search of the latest evidence. All recommendations were supported by systematic reviews and graded using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system. Expert judgment was used to develop good practice statements supplementary to the graded evidence-based recommendations. The updated guideline comprises nine recommendations and one good practice statement. It focuses on the key recommendations pertinent to the following issues: identification of prognostic factors for death or pediatric intensive care unit admission; the use of remdesivir, systemic glucocorticoids and antipyretics, intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, and high-flow oxygen by nasal cannula or non-invasive ventilation for acute hypoxemic respiratory failure; breastfeeding; vaccination; and the management of pediatric mental health.

CONCLUSION

This updated evidence-based guideline intends to provide clinicians, pediatricians, patients and other stakeholders with evidence-based recommendations for the prevention and management of COVID-19 in children and adolescents. Larger studies with longer follow-up to determine the effectiveness and safety of systemic glucocorticoids, IVIG, noninvasive ventilation, and the vaccines for COVID-19 in children and adolescents are encouraged.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• Several clinical practice guidelines for children with COVID-19 have been developed, but only few of them have been recently updated. • We developed an evidence-based guideline at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak and have now updated it based on the results of a comprehensive search of the latest evidence.

WHAT IS NEW

• The updated guideline provides key recommendations pertinent to the following issues: identification of prognostic factors for death or pediatric intensive care unit admission; the use of remdesivir, systemic glucocorticoids and antipyretics, intravenous immunoglobulin for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, and high-flow oxygen by nasal cannula or non-invasive ventilation for acute hypoxemic respiratory failure; breastfeeding; vaccination; and the management of pediatric mental health.

Novel Use of Capture-Recapture Methods to Estimate Completeness of Contact Tracing during an Ebola Outbreak, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018-2020

Despite its critical role in containing outbreaks, the efficacy of contact tracing, measured as the sensitivity of case detection, remains an elusive metric. We estimated the sensitivity of contact tracing by applying unilist capture-recapture methods on data from the 2018–2020 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. To compute sensitivity, we applied different distributional assumptions to the zero-truncated count data to estimate the number of unobserved case-patients with any contacts and infected contacts. Geometric distributions were the best-fitting models. Our results indicate that contact tracing efforts identified almost all (n = 792, 99%) of case-patients with any contacts but only half (n = 207, 48%) of case-patients with infected contacts, suggesting that contact tracing efforts performed well at identifying contacts during the listing stage but performed poorly during the contact follow-up stage. We discuss extensions to our work and potential applications for the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

Hepatitis C core antigen test as an alternative for diagnosing HCV infection: mathematical model and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

The cost and complexity of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test are barriers to diagnosis and treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We investigated the cost-effectiveness of testing strategies using antigen instead of PCR testing.

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model for HCV to estimate the number of diagnoses and cases of liver disease. We compared the following testing strategies: antibody test followed by PCR in case of positive antibody (baseline strategy); antibody test followed by HCV-antigen test (antibody-antigen); antigen test alone; PCR test alone. We conducted cost-effectiveness analyses considering either the costs of HCV testing of infected and uninfected individuals alone (A1), HCV testing and liver-related complications (A2), or all costs including HCV treatment (A3). The model was parameterized for the country of Georgia. We conducted several sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

The baseline scenario could detect 89% of infected individuals. Antibody-antigen detected 86% and antigen alone 88% of infected individuals. PCR testing alone detected 91% of the infected individuals: the remaining 9% either died or spontaneously recovered before testing. In analysis A1, the baseline strategy was not essentially more expensive than antibody-antigen. In analysis A2, strategies using PCR became cheaper than antigen-based strategies. In analysis A3, antibody-antigen was again the cheapest strategy, followed by the baseline strategy, and PCR testing alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Antigen testing, either following a positive antibody test or alone, performed almost as well as the current practice of HCV testing. The cost-effectiveness of these strategies depends on the inclusion of treatment costs.

Clinical Epidemiology in China series. Paper 4: The reporting and methodological quality of Chinese clinical practice guidelines published between 2014 and 2018: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to systematically review the methodological and reporting quality of clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) developed in China and published in medical journals between 2014 and 2018.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We conducted a comprehensive search in multiple databases: MEDLINE (via PubMed), Embase, CBM (China Biology Medicine), CNKI (China National Knowledge Infrastructure) and Wanfang Data. We included all clinical practice guidelines developed in China between 2014 and 2018. The AGREE II tool and the RIGHT checklist were used to appraise the methodological quality and reporting quality of the included guidelines, respectively.

RESULTS

We identified 17,188 records, and included finally 573 CPGs. Most (n=507, 88.5%) were published in Chinese, and 508 (88.7%) were about Western medicine. Only 62 (10.8%) of the guidelines used the GRADE approach. The mean overall score of methodological quality over all guidelines was 19.4%, and the mean scores for the AGREE II domains were 28.6% (Scope and purpose), 17.0% (Stakeholder involvement), 11.7% (Rigor of development), 32.2% (Clarity of presentation), 14.2% (Applicability) and 12.8% (Editorial independence). The mean overall score for reporting quality over all guidelines was 30.2%, with the following mean scores for each RIGHT domain: 55.6% (Basic information), 43.8% (Background), 14.5% (Evidence), 29.2% (Recommendations), 10.7% (Review and quality assurance), 12.6% (Funding and declaration of interest) and 8.4% (Other information). Subgroup analyses found that both the methodological and reporting quality were generally higher among CPGs that used evidence grading systems or reported receiving funding.

CONCLUSION

Both the methodological quality and the reporting quality of CPGs developed in China have improved over time, but are still below the international average.

Facing the quality of life: physical illness, anxiety, and depression symptoms among people living with HIV in rural Zambia - a cross-sectional study

Widespread access to ART has not improved the quality of life (QoL) for people living with HIV (PLHIV). We used the United Nations Disability project (UNPRPD) evaluation data to examine how physical illness, anxiety, and depression shape the QoL of PLHIV in households receiving the social cash transfers safety nets in Luapula, Zambia. We explored associations between each outcome - physical illness, anxiety, depression symptoms - and age, gender, poverty, hunger and disability, using univariable and multivariable regressions. We adjusted p-values for multiple hypothesis testing with sharpened Qs. The sample comprised 1925 respondents 16-55 years old, median age 31 (IQR 22-42 years), majority women (n = 1514, 78.6%). Two-thirds (1239, 64.4%) reported having a physical illness, a third (671, 34.9%) anxiety, and nine per cent (366) depression symptoms. More HIV positive people had a disability (34.6%, 53 versus 28.3%, 502; Q = 0.033), were physically ill (72.5%, 111 versus 63.7%, 1128; Q = 0.011), and two-fold (aOR 1.97 95% CI 1.31-2.94) more likely to report depression symptoms than HIV negative peers. Food insecurity and disability among PLHIV may worsen their physical illnesses, anxiety, depression symptoms, and other QoL domains. More research on the quality of life of PLHIV in poverty is required.

Analysis of COVID-19 Guideline Quality and Change of Recommendations: A Systematic Review

Background

Hundreds of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) and expert consensus statements have been developed and published since the outbreak of the epidemic. However, these CPGs are of widely variable quality. So, this review is aimed at systematically evaluating the methodological and reporting qualities of COVID-19 CPGs, exploring factors that may influence their quality, and analyzing the change of recommendations in CPGs with evidence published.

Methods

We searched five electronic databases and five websites from 1 January to 31 December 2020 to retrieve all COVID-19 CPGs. The assessment of the methodological and reporting qualities of CPGs was performed using the AGREE II instrument and RIGHT checklist. Recommendations and evidence used to make recommendations in the CPGs regarding some treatments for COVID-19 (remdesivir, glucocorticoids, hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine, interferon, and lopinavir-ritonavir) were also systematically assessed. And the statistical inference was performed to identify factors associated with the quality of CPGs.

Results

We included a total of 92 COVID-19 CPGs developed by 19 countries. Overall, the RIGHT checklist reporting rate of COVID-19 CPGs was 33.0%, and the AGREE II domain score was 30.4%. The overall methodological and reporting qualities of COVID-19 CPGs gradually improved during the year 2020. Factors associated with high methodological and reporting qualities included the evidence-based development process, management of conflicts of interest, and use of established rating systems to assess the quality of evidence and strength of recommendations. The recommendations of only seven (7.6%) CPGs were informed by a systematic review of evidence, and these seven CPGs have relatively high methodological and reporting qualities, in which six of them fully meet the Institute of Medicine (IOM) criteria of guidelines. Besides, a rapid advice CPG developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) of the seven CPGs got the highest overall scores in methodological (72.8%) and reporting qualities (83.8%). Many CPGs covered the same clinical questions (it refers to the clinical questions on the effectiveness of treatments of remdesivir, glucocorticoids, hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine, interferon, and lopinavir-ritonavir in COVID-19 patients) and were published by different countries or organizations. Although randomized controlled trials and systematic reviews on the effectiveness of treatments of remdesivir, glucocorticoids, hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine, interferon, and lopinavir-ritonavir for patients with COVID-19 have been published, the recommendations on those treatments still varied greatly across COVID-19 CPGs published in different countries or regions, which may suggest that the CPGs do not make sufficient use of the latest evidence.

Conclusions

Both the methodological and reporting qualities of COVID-19 CPGs increased over time, but there is still room for further improvement. The lack of effective use of available evidence and management of conflicts of interest were the main reasons for the low quality of the CPGs. The use of formal rating systems for the quality of evidence and strength of recommendations may help to improve the quality of CPGs in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic, we suggest developing a living guideline of which recommendations are supported by a systematic review for it can facilitate the timely translation of the latest research findings to clinical practice. We also suggest that CPG developers should register the guidelines in a registration platform at the beginning for it can reduce duplication development of guidelines on the same clinical question, increase the transparency of the development process, and promote cooperation among guideline developers all over the world. Since the International Practice Guideline Registry Platform has been created, developers could register guidelines prospectively and internationally on this platform.

Developing evidenced-based quality assessment checklist for real practice in primary health care using standardized patients: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The aim of this review was to explore the quality assessment checklists development methods in previous researches using standardized patients (SPs), as well as to propose an evidence-based checklist development procedure for quality assessment of common conditions in primary health care (PHC) settings.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of studies that described checklist development method and extracted the methodology in terms of the developer, the basis and processes. Based on that, we formulated the development procedure according to the recommendations of the WHO Handbook for Guideline Development.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 13 articles, and proposed the following five key steps: (I) forming a multidisciplinary team; (II) selecting and evaluating relevant references; (III) extracting medical information and forming the basic items; (IV) clinical expert consensus on the items; and (V) pre-testing the item pool and determining final items.

DISCUSSION

SP has been proven to be an effective method to assess performance in practice. There are still some deficiencies in the developing of case-specific checklists using SPs. To ensure the validity and reliability of checklists, the development processes need to be more standardized and procedural.

Evidence-based Definition for Extensively Drug-resistant Tuberculosis

RATIONALE

Until 2020, extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) was defined as resistance to rifampicin and isoniazid (multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, MDR-TB), any fluoroquinolone (FQ) and any second-line injectable drug (SLID). In 2019 the World Health Organization issued new recommendations for managing patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis, substantially limiting the role of SLID in MDR-TB treatment and thus putting that XDR-TB definition into question.

OBJECTIVE

To propose an up-to-date definition for XDR-TB.

METHODS

We used a large dataset to assess treatment outcomes for MDR-TB patients exposed to any type of longer regimen. We included patients with bacteriologically confirmed MDR-TB and known FQ and SLID resistance results. We did logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for unfavourable treatment outcome (failure, relapse, death, loss-to-follow-up) by resistance pattern (FQ, SLID) and Group A drug use (moxifloxacin/levofloxacin, linezolid, bedaquiline).

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

We included 11,666 patients with MDR-TB; 4653 (39.9%) had an unfavourable treatment outcome. Resistance to FQs increased the odds of an unfavourable treatment outcome (aOR 1.91; 95% confidence interval [95%CI] 1.63-2.23). Administration of bedaquiline and/or linezolid improved treatment outcomes regardless of resistance to FQ and/or SLID. Among XDR-TB patients, compared to persons receiving no Group A drug, aORs for unfavourable outcome were 0.37 (95%CI 0.20-0.69) with linezolid only, 0.40 (95%CI 0.21-0.77) with bedaquiline only, and 0.21 (95%CI 0.12-0.38) with both.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study supports a new definition of XDR-TB as MDR plus additional resistance to FQ plus bedaquiline and/or linezolid, and helps assess the adequacy of this definition for surveillance and treatment choice.NOTE: This article has been updated on July 16, 2021. When it was initially posted on June 9, 2021, the name of one of the coauthors, Dr. Christian Lienhardt, was inadvertently omitted. This version includes Dr. Lienhardt's affilations and contributions; the affiliations have therefore been renumbered.

Tuberculosis in the Western Pacific Region: Estimating the burden of disease and return on investment 2020-2030 in four countries

Background

We aimed to estimate the disease burden of Tuberculosis (TB) and return on investment of TB care in selected high-burden countries of the Western Pacific Region (WPR) until 2030.

Methods

We projected the TB epidemic in Viet Nam and Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) 2020–2030 using a mathematical model under various scenarios: counterfactual (no TB care); baseline (TB care continues at current levels); and 12 different diagnosis and treatment interventions. We retrieved previous modeling results for China and the Philippines. We pooled the new and existing information on incidence and deaths in the four countries, covering >80% of the TB burden in WPR. We estimated the return on investment of TB care and interventions in Viet Nam and Lao PDR using a Solow model.

Findings

In the baseline scenario, TB incidence in the four countries decreased from 97•0/100,000/year (2019) to 90•1/100,000/year (2030), and TB deaths from 83,300/year (2019) to 71,100/year (2030). Active case finding (ACF) strategies (screening people not seeking care for respiratory symptoms) were the most effective single interventions. Return on investment (2020–2030) for TB care in Viet Nam and Lao PDR ranged US$4-US$49/dollar spent; additional interventions brought up to US$2•7/dollar spent.

Interpretation

In the modeled countries, TB incidence will only modestly decrease without additional interventions. Interventions that include ACF can reduce TB burden but achieving the End TB incidence and mortality targets will be difficult without new transformational tools (e.g. vaccine, new diagnostic tools, shorter treatment). However, TB care, even at its current level, can bring a multiple-fold return on investment.

Funding

World Health Organization Western Pacific Regional Office; Swiss National Science Foundation Grant 163878.

A cross-sectional study of the epidemic situation on COVID-19 in Gansu Province, China - a big data analysis of the national health information platform

Background

In December 2019, a pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Wuhan, China and has rapidly spread around the world since then. This study is to explore the patient characteristics and transmission chains of COVID-19 in the population of Gansu province, and support decision-making.

Methods

We collected data from Gansu Province National Health Information Platform. A cross-sectional study was conducted, including patients with COVID-19 confirmed between January 23 and February 6, 2020, and analyzed the gender and age of the patients. We also described the incubation period, consultation time and sources of infection in the cases, and calculated the secondary cases that occurred within Gansu for each imported case.

Results

We found thirty-six (53.7%) of the patients were women and thirty-one (46.3%) men, and the median ages were 40 (IQR 31–53) years. Twenty-eight (41.8%) of the 67 cases had a history of direct exposure in Wuhan. Twenty-five (52.2%) cases came from ten families, and we found no clear reports of modes of transmission other than family clusters. The largest number of secondary cases linked to a single source was nine.

Conclusion

More women than men were diagnosed with COVID-19 in Gansu Province. Although the age range of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Gansu Province covered almost all age groups, most patients with confirmed COVID-19 tend to be middle aged persons. The most common suspected mode of transmission was through family cluster. Gansu and other settings worldwide should continue to strengthen the utilization of big data in epidemic control.

Clusters of sub-Saharan African countries based on sociobehavioural characteristics and associated HIV incidence

Introduction

HIV incidence varies widely between sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. This variation coincides with a substantial sociobehavioural heterogeneity, which complicates the design of effective interventions. In this study, we investigated how sociobehavioural heterogeneity in sub-Saharan Africa could account for the variance of HIV incidence between countries.

Methods

We analysed aggregated data, at the national-level, from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys of 29 SSA countries (2010–2017), which included 594,644 persons (183,310 men and 411,334 women). We preselected 48 demographic, socio-economic, behavioural and HIV-related attributes to describe each country. We used Principal Component Analysis to visualize sociobehavioural similarity between countries, and to identify the variables that accounted for most sociobehavioural variance in SSA. We used hierarchical clustering to identify groups of countries with similar sociobehavioural profiles, and we compared the distribution of HIV incidence (estimates from UNAIDS) and sociobehavioural variables within each cluster.

Results

The most important characteristics, which explained 69% of sociobehavioural variance across SSA among the variables we assessed were: religion; male circumcision; number of sexual partners; literacy; uptake of HIV testing; women’s empowerment; accepting attitude toward people living with HIV/AIDS; rurality; ART coverage; and, knowledge about AIDS. Our model revealed three groups of countries, each with characteristic sociobehavioural profiles. HIV incidence was mostly similar within each cluster and different between clusters (median (IQR); 0.5/1000 (0.6/1000), 1.8/1000 (1.3/1000) and 5.0/1000 (4.2/1000)).

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that the combination of sociobehavioural factors play a key role in determining the course of the HIV epidemic, and that similar techniques can help to predict the effects of behavioural change on the HIV epidemic and to design targeted interventions to impede HIV transmission in SSA.

The reporting checklist for public versions of guidelines: RIGHT-PVG

BACKGROUND

Public or patient versions of guidelines (PVGs) are derivative documents that "translate" recommendations and their rationale from clinical guidelines for health professionals into a more easily understandable and usable format for patients and the public. PVGs from different groups and organizations vary considerably in terms of quality of their reporting. In order to address this issue, we aimed to develop a reporting checklist for developers of PVGs and other potential users.

METHODS

First, we collected a list of potential items through reviewing a sample of PVGs, existing guidance for developing and reporting PVGs or other similar evidence-based patient tools, as well as qualitative studies on original studies of patients' needs about the content and/or reporting of information in PVGs or similar evidence-based patient tools. Second, we conducted a two-round Delphi consultation to determine the level of consensus on the items to be included in the final reporting checklist. Third, we invited two external reviewers to provide comments on the checklist.

RESULTS

We generated the initial list of 45 reporting items based on a review of a sample of 30 PVGs, four PVG guidance documents, and 46 relevant studies. After the two-round Delphi consultation, we formed a checklist of 17 items grouped under 12 topics for reporting PVGs.

CONCLUSION

The RIGHT-PVG reporting checklist provides an international consensus on the important criteria for reporting PVGs.

Guidelines for the Management of Children and Adolescent with COVID-19: protocol for an update

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a constant threat to people's lives, bringing huge challenges to the global public health and medical service system. In order to ensure the timeliness and reliability of the recommendations in guidelines, the working group of the Rapid Advice Guidelines for Management of Children with COVID-19 decided to update the guideline to incorporate the latest evidence to guide the management of COVID-19 in children and adolescent.

METHODS

We will update the guidelines, originally developed as a rapid advice guideline, into a standard guideline. We will follow the clinical practice guideline (CPG) update manuals of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) and the Spanish National Health System (SNHS). The updated guidelines will also follow the RIGHT (Reporting Items for Practice Guidelines in Healthcare) checklist and Checklist for the Reporting of Updated Guidelines (CheckUp).

DISCUSSION

Through systematic search, evaluation and grading of the best available relevant clinical evidence, combined with the experience of frontline clinical experts in the fight against the epidemic and the wishes of patients and their caretakers, we will update our previous rapid advice guidelines into a high-quality, implementable standard guidelines for the management of COVID-19 in children and adolescent.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The standard guideline update has been registered at the International Practice Guidelines Registry Platform (http://guidelines-registry.cn/?lang=en, registration No. IPGRP-2020CN101).

Family exposure and the impact of containment measures to children with coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei, China: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

In response to the ongoing epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), China has carried out restrictive disease containment measures across the country.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, we collected demographic and epidemiological data of 376 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 among children younger than 18 years of age. Using descriptive statistics and odds ratios, we described the odds of exposure outside the family after the implementation of control measures compared to before.

RESULTS

Children diagnosed on or after February 4, 2020, had a lower odds of exposure to COVID-19 outside of the family compared to those diagnosed before February 3, 2020 (OR =0.594, 95% CI: 0.391 to 0.904). In the stratified analysis, children aged 0 to 5 years had the lowest odds of exposure outside of the family (OR =0.420, 95% CI: 0.196 to 0.904) compared to the other age groups assessed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study on the children infected with COVID-19 as well as their exposure within family provided evidence that the implementation of containment measures was effective in reducing the odds of exposure outside of the family, especially for preschool children. Continuation of these efforts, coupled with tailored prevention and health education messaging for younger aged children, may help to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 among children until other therapeutic interventions or vaccines are available.

Egg consumption and health outcomes: a global evidence mapping based on an overview of systematic reviews

Background

Several systematic reviews and meta-analyses have assessed the association between egg consumption and human health, but the evidence is often conflicting.

Methods

We conducted a systematic literature search to find all systematic reviews and meta-analyses that assess the association between egg consumption and any type of health outcome. We used AMSTAR to evaluate the methodological quality of the reviews, and GRADE to determine the quality of evidence. We visualized the results using a human anatomy diagram and evidence mapping.

Results

Our search revealed 29 systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Eight studies were of high methodological quality, 16 studies of medium quality, and five studies of low quality. We identified 34 primary outcomes from the included 29 reviews, which were combined into a total of 22 different health outcomes. Two of the primary outcomes were based on high-quality evidence, 18 on moderate-quality evidence, and 14 on low-quality evidence. Egg consumption was associated with an increased risk of two diseases and decreased risk of six outcomes. For ten outcomes, no significant association was found, and for four outcomes, different reviews came to conflicting conclusions.

Conclusions

The association between egg consumption and the risk of cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and other related diseases has been studied in several meta-analyses. The evidence from different studies on the same topic was often conflicting, which can complicate the making of dietary recommendations.

Recommendations in clinical practice guidelines on gout: systematic review and consistency analysis

OBJECTIVES

To compare and analyse the recommendations from clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) on gout worldwide, examine the consistency across CPGs, and provide suggestions to develop and update gout guidelines.

METHODS

We conducted systematic searches in MEDLINE, CBM, GIN, NICE, NGC, WHO, SIGN, DynaMed, UpToDate, and Best Practice databases, from their inception to August 2019 to identify and select CPGs related to gout. We used the search terms "gout", "hyperuricaemia" and "guideline". After two rounds of screening, we included the eligible CPGs of gout according to the pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Methodological quality of included guidelines was assessed with the AGREE-II instrument. The general characteristics of included guidelines and the recommendations were extracted, and the consistency of recommendations across guidelines was compared and analysed.

RESULTS

A total of 15 gout guidelines including 359 recommendations were retrieved. The main topics covered by the recommendations were diagnosis, pharmacologic treatment of gout flares, pharmacologic urate-lowering therapy (ULT) of chronic gouty arthritis, lifestyle interventions, prophylaxis, and management of asymptomatic hyperuricaemia. The results of AGREE-II appraisal showed that only two guidelines achieved high scores (≥50%) in all six domains. There was substantial discrepancy between the guidelines in recommendations covering the value of computed tomography (CT) and x-rays for diagnosis, the use of corticosteroids as a first-line treatment for flare, the use of colchicine, indications for ULT, the use of febuxostat as first-line ULT, the administration of allopurinol, and the timing of ULT initiation.

CONLUSIONS

A number of countries are devoting themselves to the development of gout guidelines, but the process of updating guidelines is slower than that suggested by the WHO. Methodological quality is not satisfactory in most guidelines, and recommendations between guidelines are not consistent.

Identifying groups of people with similar sociobehavioural characteristics in Malawi to inform HIV interventions: a latent class analysis

INTRODUCTION

Within many sub-Saharan African countries including Malawi, HIV prevalence varies widely between regions. This variability may be related to the distribution of population groups with specific sociobehavioural characteristics that influence the transmission of HIV and the uptake of prevention. In this study, we intended to identify groups of people in Malawi with similar risk profiles.

METHODS

We used data from the Demographic and Health Survey in Malawi (2015 to 2016), and stratified the analysis by sex. We considered demographic, socio-behavioural and HIV-related variables. Using Latent Class Analysis (LCA), we identified groups of people sharing common sociobehavioural characteristics. The optimal number of classes (groups) was selected based on the Bayesian information criterion. We compared the proportions of individuals belonging to the different groups across the three regions and 28 districts of Malawi.

RESULTS

We found nine groups of women and six groups of men. Most women in the groups with highest risk of being HIV positive were living in female-headed households and were formerly married or in a union. Among men, older men had the highest risk of being HIV positive, followed by young (20 to 25) single men. Generally, low HIV testing uptake correlated with lower risk of having HIV. However, rural adolescent girls had a low probability of being tested (48.7%) despite a relatively high HIV prevalence. Urban districts and the Southern region had a higher percentage of high-prevalence and less tested groups of individuals than other areas.

CONCLUSIONS

LCA is an efficient method to find groups of people sharing common HIV risk profiles, identify particularly vulnerable sub-populations, and plan targeted interventions focusing on these groups. Tailored support, prevention and HIV testing programmes should focus particularly on female household heads, adolescent girls living in rural areas, older married men and young men who have never been married.

Future scenarios for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland: an age-structured model

The recent lifting of COVID-19 related restrictions in Switzerland causes uncertainty about the future of the epidemic. We developed a compartmental model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Switzerland and projected the course of the epidemic until the end of year 2020 under various scenarios. The model was age-structured with three categories: children (0-17), adults (18-64) and seniors (65- years). Lifting all restrictions according to the plans disclosed by the Swiss federal authorities by mid-May resulted in a rapid rebound in the epidemic, with the peak expected in July. Measures equivalent to at least 76% reduction in all contacts were able to eradicate the epidemic; a 54% reduction in contacts could keep the intensive care unit occupancy under the critical level and delay the next wave until October. In scenarios where strong contact reductions were only applied in selected age groups, the epidemic could not be suppressed, resulting in an increased risk of a rebound in July, and another stronger wave in September. Future interventions need to cover all age groups to keep the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic under control.