No general relationship between mass and temperature in endothermic species

Environmental warming increases the importance of high-turnover energy channels in stream food webs

Warming temperatures are altering communities and trophic networks across Earth's ecosystems. While the overall influence of warming on food webs is often context-dependent, increasing temperatures are predicted to change communities in two fundamental ways: (1) by reducing average body size and (2) by increasing individual metabolic rates. These warming-induced changes have the potential to influence the distribution of food web fluxes, food web stability, and the relative importance of deterministic and stochastic ecological processes shaping community assembly. Here, we quantified patterns and the relative distribution of organic matter fluxes through stream food webs spanning a broad natural temperature gradient (5-27°C). We then related these patterns to species and community trait distributions of mean body size and population biomass turnover (P:B) within and across streams. We predicted that (1) communities in warmer streams would exhibit smaller body size and higher P:B and (2) organic matter fluxes within warmer communities would increasingly skew toward smaller, higher P:B populations. Across the temperature gradient, warmer communities were characterized by smaller body size (~9% per °C) and higher P:B (~7% faster turnover per °C) populations on average. Additionally, organic matter fluxes within warmer streams were increasingly skewed toward higher P:B populations, demonstrating that warming can restructure organic matter fluxes in both an absolute and relative sense. With warming, the relative distribution of organic matter fluxes was decreasingly likely to arise through the random sorting of species, suggesting stronger selection for traits driving high turnover with increasing temperature. Our study suggests that a warming world will favor energy fluxes through "smaller and faster" populations, and that these changes may be more predictable than previously thought.

A global assessment of Bergmann's rule in mammals and birds

Bergmann's rule states that endotherms have a large body size in high latitudes and cold climates. However, previous empirical studies have reported mixed evidence on the relationships between body size and latitude, raising the question of why some clades of endotherms follow Bergmann's rule, whereas others do not. Here, we synthesized the interspecific relationships between body size and latitude among 16,187 endothermic species (5422 mammals and 10,765 birds) using Bayesian phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models to examine the strength and magnitude of Bergmann's rule. We further assessed the effect of biological and ecological factors (i.e., body mass categories, dietary guild, winter activity, habitat openness, and climate zone) on the variations in the body mass-latitude relationships by adding an interaction term in the models. Our results revealed a generally weak but significant adherence to Bergmann's rule among all endotherms at the global scale. Despite taxonomic variation in the strength of Bergmann's rule, the body mass of species within most animal orders showed an increasing trend toward high latitudes. Generally, large-bodied, temperate species, non-hibernating mammals, and migratory and open-habitat birds tend to conform to Bergmann's rule more than their relatives do. Our results suggest that whether Bergmann's rule applies to a particular taxon is mediated by not only geographic and biological features, but also potential alternate strategies that species might have for thermoregulation. Future studies could explore the potential of integrating comprehensive trait data into phylogenetic comparative analysis to re-assess the classic ecogeographic rules on a global scale.

A practical guide to collections-based research on ecogeographic rules

Ecogeographic research into how species' forms vary across space, time, and climate has taken on new urgency due to contemporary global climate change. Research using museum specimens and other records to study biological rules like Bergmann's, Allen's, and Gloger's Rules has a long history and continues to generate publications and robust scientific debates. Despite the prevalence and history of the field, however, no simple guide on how to carry out such work has ever been published. To lower the barriers of entry for new researchers, this review was created as a practical guide on how to perform ecogeographic research. The guide consolidates disparately published methodologies into a single, convenient document that reviews the history and present of the field of ecogeographic rule research, and describes how to generate appropriate hypotheses, design experiments, gather, and analyze biotic and geographic data, and interpret the results in an ecologically meaningful manner. The result is a semi-standardized guide that enables scientists at all levels from any institution to carry out an investigation from start to finish on any biological rule, taxon, and location of their choice.

Evolutionary scaling of maximum growth rate with organism size

Data from nearly 1000 species reveal the upper bound to rates of biomass production achievable by natural selection across the Tree of Life. For heterotrophs, maximum growth rates scale positively with organism size in bacteria but negatively in eukaryotes, whereas for phototrophs, the scaling is negligible for cyanobacteria and weakly negative for eukaryotes. These results have significant implications for understanding the bioenergetic consequences of the transition from prokaryotes to eukaryotes, and of the expansion of some groups of the latter into multicellularity. The magnitudes of the scaling coefficients for eukaryotes are significantly lower than expected under any proposed physical-constraint model. Supported by genomic, bioenergetic, and population-genetic data and theory, an alternative hypothesis for the observed negative scaling in eukaryotes postulates that growth-diminishing mutations with small effects passively accumulate with increasing organism size as a consequence of associated increases in the power of random genetic drift. In contrast, conditional on the structural and functional features of ribosomes, natural selection has been able to promote bacteria with the fastest possible growth rates, implying minimal conflicts with both bioenergetic constraints and random genetic drift. If this extension of the drift-barrier hypothesis is correct, the interpretations of comparative studies of biological traits that have traditionally ignored differences in population-genetic environments will require revisiting.

Colour scales with climate in North American ratsnakes: a test of the thermal melanism hypothesis using community science images

Animal colour is a complex trait shaped by multiple selection pressures that can vary across geography. The thermal melanism hypothesis predicts that darker coloration is beneficial to animals in colder regions because it allows for more rapid solar absorption. Here, we use community science images of three closely related species of North American ratsnakes (genus Pantherophis) to examine if climate predicts colour variation across range-wide scales. We predicted that darker individuals are found in colder regions and higher elevations, in accordance with the thermal melanism hypothesis. Using an unprecedented dataset of over 8000 images, we found strong support for temperature as a key predictor of darker colour, supporting thermal melanism. We also found that elevation and precipitation are predictive of colour, but the direction and magnitude of these effects were more variable across species. Our study is the first to quantify colour variation in Pantherophis ratsnakes, highlighting the value of community science images for studying range-wide colour variation.

Abiotic conditions shape spatial and temporal morphological variation in North American birds

Quantifying environment-morphology relationships is important not only for understanding the fundamental processes driving phenotypic diversity within and among species but also for predicting how species will respond to ongoing global change. Despite a clear set of expectations motivated by ecological theory, broad evidence in support of generalizable effects of abiotic conditions on spatial and temporal intraspecific morphological variation has been limited. Using standardized data from >250,000 captures of 105 landbird species, we assessed intraspecific shifts in the morphology of adult male birds since 1989 while simultaneously measuring spatial morphological gradients across the North American continent. We found strong spatial and temporal trends in average body size, with warmer temperatures associated with smaller body sizes both at more equatorial latitudes and in more recent years. The magnitude of these thermal effects varied both across and within species, with results suggesting it is the warmest, rather than the coldest, temperatures that drive both spatial and temporal trends. Stronger responses to spatial-rather than temporal-variation in temperature suggest that morphological change may not be keeping up with the pace of climate change. Additionally, as elevation increases, we found that body size declines as relative wing length increases, probably due to the benefits that longer wings confer for flight in thin air environments. Our results provide support for both existing and new large-scale ecomorphological 'rules' and highlight how the response of functional trade-offs to abiotic variation drives morphological change.

Rapidly declining body size in an insectivorous bat is associated with increased precipitation and decreased survival

Reduced food availability is implicated in declines in avian aerial insectivores, but the effect of nutritional stress on mammalian aerial insectivores is unclear. Unlike birds, insectivorous bats provision their young through lactation, which might protect nursing juveniles when prey availability is low but could increase the energetic burden on lactating females. We analyzed a 15-year capture-mark-recapture data set from 5312 individual little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus) captured at 11 maternity colonies in northwestern Canada, to test the hypothesis that nutritional stress is impacting these mammalian aerial insectivores. We used long-bone (forearm [FA]) length as a proxy for relative access to nutrition during development, and body mass as a proxy for access to nutrition prior to capture. Average FA length and body mass both decreased significantly over the study period in adult females and juveniles, suggesting decreased access to nutrition. Effect sizes were very small, similar to those reported for declining body size in avian aerial insectivores. Declines in juvenile body mass were only observed in individuals captured in late summer when they were foraging independently, supporting our hypothesis that lactation provides some protection to nursing young during periods of nutritional stress. Potential drivers of the decline in bat size include one or both of (1) declining insect (prey) abundance, and (2) declining prey availability. Echolocating insectivorous bats cannot forage effectively during rainfall, which is increasing in our study area. The body mass of captured adult females and juveniles in our study was lower, on average, after periods of high rainfall, and higher after warmer-than-average periods. Finally, survival models revealed a positive association between FA length and survival, suggesting a fitness consequence to declines in body size. Our study area has not yet been impacted by bat white-nose syndrome (WNS), but research elsewhere has suggested that fatter bats are more likely to survive infection. We found evidence for WNS-independent shifts in the body size of little brown myotis, which can inform studies investigating population responses to WNS. More broadly, the cumulative effects of multiple stressors (e.g., disease, nutritional stress, climate change, and other pressures) on mammalian aerial insectivores require urgent attention.

Thermal adaptation best explains Bergmann's and Allen's Rules across ecologically diverse shorebirds

Bergmann’s and Allen’s rules state that endotherms should be larger and have shorter appendages in cooler climates. However, the drivers of these rules are not clear. Both rules could be explained by adaptation for improved thermoregulation, including plastic responses to temperature in early life. Non-thermal explanations are also plausible as climate impacts other factors that influence size and shape, including starvation risk, predation risk, and foraging ecology. We assess the potential drivers of Bergmann’s and Allen’s rules in 30 shorebird species using extensive field data (>200,000 observations). We show birds in hot, tropical northern Australia have longer bills and smaller bodies than conspecifics in temperate, southern Australia, conforming with both ecogeographical rules. This pattern is consistent across ecologically diverse species, including migratory birds that spend early life in the Arctic. Our findings best support the hypothesis that thermoregulatory adaptation to warm climates drives latitudinal patterns in shorebird size and shape.

Global patterns in animal size and shape have been long observed, but their underlying drivers are not well understood. Here the authors suggest latitudinal patterns in shorebird size and shape are best explained by thermal adaptation to warm climates.

Energetic constraints on body-size niches in a resource-limited marine environment

Body size of life on the Earth spans many orders of magnitude, and with it scales the energetic requirements of organisms. Thus, changes in environmental energy should impact community body-size distributions in predictable ways by reshaping ecological and niche dynamics. We examine how carbon, oxygen and temperature, three energetic drivers, impact community size-based assembly in deep-sea bivalves. We demonstrate that body-size distributions are influenced by multiple energetic constraints. Relaxation in these constraints leads to an expansion of body-size niche space through the addition of novel large size classes, increasing the standard deviation and mean of the body-size distribution. With continued Anthropogenic increases in temperature and reductions in carbon availability and oxygen in most ocean basins, our results point to possible radical shifts in invertebrate body size with the potential to impact ecosystem function.

Different increase rate in body mass of two marten species due to climate warming potentially reinforces interspecific competition

Many species show spatial variation in body size, often associated with climatic patterns. Studying species with contrasting geographical patterns related to climate might help elucidate the role of different drivers. We analysed changes in the body mass of two sympatric medium-sized carnivores—pine marten (Martes martes) and stone marten (Martes foina)—across Europe over 59 years. The body mass of pine marten increased with decreasing latitude, whereas stone marten body mass varied in a more complex pattern across its geographic range. Over time, the average body mass of pine martens increased by 255 g (24%), while stone marten by 86 g (6%). The greatest increase of body mass along both martens’ geographic range was observed in central and southern Europe, where both species occur in sympatry. The body mass increase slowed down over time, especially in allopatric regions. The average pine/stone marten body mass ratio increased from 0.87 in 1960 to 0.99 in 2019, potentially strengthening the competition between them. Thus, a differential response in body size to several drivers over time might have led to an adaptive advantage for pine martens. This highlights the importance of considering different responses among interacting species when studying animal adaptation to climate change.

Rapid phenotypic change in a polymorphic salamander over 43 years

Color polymorphic animals offer a unique system for studying intraspecific phenotypic responses to climate change. Discrete color morphs are easy to identify, and correlated trait responses of morphs can indicate how climate warming may facilitate long-term maintenance of polymorphisms. We use a historical dataset spanning 43 years to examine temporal shifts in color morph frequency and body size in response to climate in the Eastern Red-backed Salamander, Plethodon cinereus, which contains a widespread striped/unstriped color polymorphism. We created a pipeline to extract high-throughput trait data from fluid-preserved museum specimens where we batch-photographed salamanders, de-aggregated individual specimens from photographs, and solicited help of community scientists to score color morphs. We used a linear modeling framework that includes information about spatial population structure to demonstrate that color morph frequency and body size vary in response to climate, elevation, and over time, with an overall trend of higher frequency and decreased body size of the striped morph, but increased size of the unstriped morph. These surprising results suggest that morphs may be responding to multiple climate and geographic drivers through co-adapted morphological changes. This work highlights new practices of extracting trait data from museum specimens to demonstrate species phenotypes response to climate change.

Morphological variations in a widely distributed Eastern Asian passerine cannot be consistently explained by ecogeographic rules

Ecogeographic rules that describe quantitative relationships between morphologies and climate might help us predict how morphometrics of animals was shaped by local temperature or humidity. Although the ecogeographic rules had been widely tested in animals of Europe and North America, they had not been fully validated for species in regions that are less studied. Here, we investigate the morphometric variation of a widely distributed East Asian passerine, the vinous-throated parrotbill (Sinosuthora webbiana), to test whether its morphological variation conforms to the prediction of Bergmann's rule, Allen's rules, and Gloger's rule. We at first described the climatic niche of S. webbiana from occurrence records (n = 7838) and specimen records (n = 290). The results of analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) suggested that the plumage coloration of these parrotbills was darker in wetter/warmer environments following Gloger's rule. However, their appendage size (culmen length, beak volume, tarsi length) was larger in colder environments, the opposite of the predictions of Allen's rule. Similarly, their body size (wing length) was larger in warmer environments, the opposite of the predictions of Bergmann's rule. Such disconformity to both Bergmann's rule and Allen's rule suggests that the evolution of morphological variations is likely governed by multiple selection forces rather than dominated by thermoregulation. Our results suggest that these ecogeographic rules should be validated prior to forecasting biological responses to climate change especially for species in less-studied regions.

Taxonomic scale dependency of Bergmann’s patterns: a cross-scale comparison of hawkmoths and birds along a tropical elevational gradient

Bergmann’s rule predicts a larger body size for endothermic organisms in colder environments. The contrasting results from previous studies may be due to the differences in taxonomic (intraspecific, interspecific and community) and spatial (latitudinal vs elevational) scales. We compared Bergmann’s patterns for endotherms (Aves) and ectotherms (Lepidoptera: Sphingidae) along the same 2.6 km elevational transect in the eastern Himalayas. Using a large data spanning 3,302 hawkmoths (76 morpho-species) and 15,746 birds (245 species), we compared the patterns at the intraspecific (hawkmoths only), interspecific and community scales. Hawkmoths exhibited a positive Bergmann’s pattern at the intraspecific and abundance-weighted community scale. Contrary to this, birds exhibited a strong converse Bergmann’s pattern at interspecific and community scales, both with and without abundance. Overall, our results indicate that incorporation of information on intraspecific variation and/or species relative abundances influences the results to a large extent. The multiplicity of patterns at a single location provides the opportunity to disentangle the relative contribution of individual- and species-level processes by integrating data across multiple nested taxonomic scales for the same taxa. We suggest that future studies of Bergmann’s patterns should explicitly address taxonomic and spatial scale dependency, with species relative abundance and intraspecific trait variation as essential ingredients especially at short elevational scales.

Mammalian body size is determined by interactions between climate, urbanization, and ecological traits

Anthropogenically-driven climate warming is a hypothesized driver of animal body size reductions. Less understood are effects of other human-caused disturbances on body size, such as urbanization. We compiled 140,499 body size records of over 100 North American mammals to test how climate and human population density, a proxy for urbanization, and their interactions with species traits, impact body size. We tested three hypotheses of body size variation across urbanization gradients: urban heat island effects, habitat fragmentation, and resource availability. Our results demonstrate that both urbanization and temperature influence mammalian body size variation, most often leading to larger individuals, thus supporting the resource availability hypothesis. In addition, life history and other ecological factors play a critical role in mediating the effects of climate and urbanization on body size. Larger mammals and species that utilize thermal buffering are more sensitive to warmer temperatures, while flexibility in activity time appears to be advantageous in urbanized areas. This work highlights the value of using digitized, natural history data to track how human disturbance drives morphological variation.

Anthropogenically-driven climate change is responsible for body size decreases in mammals. Using an important dataset of historically-collected data and data from continental-scale survey efforts from the National Ecological Observatory Network, Hantak et al. show that urbanization plays an important role in mediating this dynamic.

Different environmental variables predict body and brain size evolution in Homo

Increasing body and brain size constitutes a key macro-evolutionary pattern in the hominin lineage, yet the mechanisms behind these changes remain debated. Hypothesized drivers include environmental, demographic, social, dietary, and technological factors. Here we test the influence of environmental factors on the evolution of body and brain size in the genus Homo over the last one million years using a large fossil dataset combined with global paleoclimatic reconstructions and formalized hypotheses tested in a quantitative statistical framework. We identify temperature as a major predictor of body size variation within Homo, in accordance with Bergmann's rule. In contrast, net primary productivity of environments and long-term variability in precipitation correlate with brain size but explain low amounts of the observed variation. These associations are likely due to an indirect environmental influence on cognitive abilities and extinction probabilities. Most environmental factors that we test do not correspond with body and brain size evolution, pointing towards complex scenarios which underlie the evolution of key biological characteristics in later Homo.

Body size trends in response to climate and urbanization in the widespread North American deer mouse, Peromyscus maniculatus

Body size decline is hypothesized to be a key response to climate warming, including warming driven by urban heat islands. However, urbanization may also generate selective gradients for body size increases in smaller endotherms via habitat fragmentation. Here we utilize a densely sampled, multi-source dataset to examine how climate and urbanization affect body size of Peromyscus maniculatus (PEMA), an abundant rodent found across North America. We predicted PEMA would conform to Bergmann's Rule, e.g. larger individuals in colder climates, spatially and temporally. Hypotheses regarding body size in relation to urbanization are less clear; however, with increased food resources due to greater anthropogenic activity, we expected an increase in PEMA size. Spatial mixed-models showed that PEMA conform to Bergmann's Rule and that PEMA were shorter in more urbanized areas. With the inclusion of decade in mixed-models, we found PEMA mass, but not length, is decreasing over time irrespective of climate or population density. We also unexpectedly found that, over time, smaller-bodied populations of PEMA are getting larger, while larger-bodied populations are getting smaller. Our work highlights the importance of using dense spatiotemporal datasets, and modeling frameworks that account for bias, to better disentangle broad-scale climatic and urbanization effects on body size.

Habitat productivity is a poor predictor of body size in rodents

The “resource availability hypothesis” predicts occurrence of larger rodents in more productive habitats. This prediction was tested in a dataset of 1,301 rodent species. We used adult body mass as a measure of body size and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as a measure of habitat productivity. We utilized a cross-species approach to investigate the association between these variables. This was done at both the order level (Rodentia) and at narrower taxonomic scales. We applied phylogenetic generalized least squares (PGLS) to correct for phylogenetic relationships. The relationship between body mas and NDVI was also investigated across rodent assemblages. We controlled for spatial autocorrelation using generalized least squares (GLS) analysis. The cross-species approach found extremely low support for the resource availability hypothesis. This was reflected by a weak positive association between body mass and NDVI at the order level. We find a positive association in only a minority of rodent subtaxa. The best fit GLS model detected no significant association between body mass and NDVI across assemblages. Thus, our results do not support the view that resource availability plays a major role in explaining geographic variation in rodent body size.

Investigating the role of environment in pika (Ochotona) body size patterns across taxonomic levels, space, and time

Body size is an important trait in animals because it influences a multitude of additional life history traits. The causal mechanisms underlying body size patterns across spatial, temporal, and taxonomic hierarchies are debated, and of renewed interest in this era of climate change. Here, we tested multiple hypotheses regarding body mass patterns at the intraspecific and interspecific levels. We investigated body size patterns within a climate-sensitive small mammal species, Ochotona princeps (n = 2,873 individuals), across their range with local environmental variables. We also examined body mass of populations over time to determine if body size has evolved in situ in response to environmental change. At the interspecific level we compared the mean mass of 26 pika species (genus Ochotona) to determine if environmental temperatures, food availability, habitat variability, or range area influence body size. We found correlations between temperature, vegetation, and particularly precipitation variables, with body mass within O. princeps, but no linear relationship between body size and any climate or habitat variable for Ochotona species. Body size trends in relation to climate were stronger at the intraspecific than the interspecific level. Our results suggest that body size within O. princeps likely is related to food availability, and that body size evolution is not always a viable response to temperature change. Different mechanisms may be driving body size at the interspecific and intraspecific levels and factors other than environment, such as biotic interactions, may also be influential in determining body size over space and time.

Digitization and the Future of Natural History Collections

Natural history collections (NHCs) are the foundation of historical baselines for assessing anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity. Along these lines, the online mobilization of specimens via digitization—the conversion of specimen data into accessible digital content—has greatly expanded the use of NHC collections across a diversity of disciplines. We broaden the current vision of digitization (Digitization 1.0)—whereby specimens are digitized within NHCs—to include new approaches that rely on digitized products rather than the physical specimen (Digitization 2.0). Digitization 2.0 builds on the data, workflows, and infrastructure produced by Digitization 1.0 to create digital-only workflows that facilitate digitization, curation, and data links, thus returning value to physical specimens by creating new layers of annotation, empowering a global community, and developing automated approaches to advance biodiversity discovery and conservation. These efforts will transform large-scale biodiversity assessments to address fundamental questions including those pertaining to critical issues of global change.

Dense Geographic and Genomic Sampling Reveals Paraphyly and a Cryptic Lineage in a Classic Sibling Species Complex

Incomplete or geographically biased sampling poses significant problems for research in phylogeography, population genetics, phylogenetics, and species delimitation. Despite the power of using genome-wide genetic markers in systematics and related fields, approaches such as the multispecies coalescent remain unable to easily account for unsampled lineages. The Empidonax difficilis/Empidonax occidentalis complex of small tyrannid flycatchers (Aves: Tyrannidae) is a classic example of widely distributed species with limited phenotypic geographic variation that was broken into two largely cryptic (or "sibling") lineages following extensive study. Though the group is well-characterized north of the US Mexico border, the evolutionary distinctiveness and phylogenetic relationships of southern populations remain obscure. In this article, we use dense genomic and geographic sampling across the majority of the range of the E. difficilis/E. occidentalis complex to assess whether current taxonomy and species limits reflect underlying evolutionary patterns, or whether they are an artifact of historically biased or incomplete sampling. We find that additional samples from Mexico render the widely recognized species-level lineage E. occidentalis paraphyletic, though it retains support in the best-fit species delimitation model from clustering analyses. We further identify a highly divergent unrecognized lineage in a previously unsampled portion of the group's range, which a cline analysis suggests is more reproductively isolated than the currently recognized species E. difficilis and E. occidentalis. Our phylogeny supports a southern origin of these taxa. Our results highlight the pervasive impacts of biased geographic sampling, even in well-studied vertebrate groups like birds, and illustrate what is a common problem when attempting to define species in the face of recent divergence and reticulate evolution.

Shared morphological consequences of global warming in North American migratory birds

Increasing temperatures associated with climate change are predicted to cause reductions in body size, a key determinant of animal physiology and ecology. Using a four-decade specimen series of 70 716 individuals of 52 North American migratory bird species, we demonstrate that increasing annual summer temperature over the 40-year period predicts consistent reductions in body size across these diverse taxa. Concurrently, wing length - an index of body shape that impacts numerous aspects of avian ecology and behaviour - has consistently increased across species. Our findings suggest that warming-induced body size reduction is a general response to climate change, and reveal a similarly consistent and unexpected shift in body shape. We hypothesise that increasing wing length represents a compensatory adaptation to maintain migration as reductions in body size have increased the metabolic cost of flight. An improved understanding of warming-induced morphological changes is important for predicting biotic responses to global change.

Cooling requirements fueled the collapse of a desert bird community from climate change

Climate change—especially accelerated warming and drying—threatens to increase extinction risk, yet there is little evidence that physiological limitations have contributed to species declines. This study links species-specific water requirements for cooling body temperature to the collapse of a Mojave Desert bird community over the past century from climate change. Species occupying the hottest, driest sites were less likely to persist. Birds with the greatest water requirements for cooling their body temperature experienced the largest declines. Large-bodied carnivores and insectivores were especially vulnerable to cooling costs because they obtain water primarily from their food. Climate warming increases the evaporative cooling demand for birds, which will affect geographic patterns in body size and future extinction risk.

Climate change threatens global biodiversity by increasing extinction risk, yet few studies have uncovered a physiological basis of climate-driven species declines. Maintaining a stable body temperature is a fundamental requirement for homeothermic animals, and water is a vital resource that facilitates thermoregulation through evaporative cooling, especially in hot environments. Here, we explore the potential for thermoregulatory costs to underlie the community collapse of birds in the Mojave Desert over the past century in response to climate change. The probability of persistence was lowest for species occupying the warmest and driest sites, which imposed the greatest cooling costs. We developed a general model of heat flux to evaluate whether water requirements for evaporative cooling contributed to species’ declines by simulating thermoregulatory costs in the Mojave Desert for 50 bird species representing the range of observed declines. Bird species’ declines were positively associated with climate-driven increases in water requirements for evaporative cooling and exacerbated by large body size, especially for species with animal-based diets. Species exhibiting reductions in body size across their range saved up to 14% in cooling costs and experienced less decline than species without size reductions, suggesting total cooling costs as a mechanism underlying Bergmann’s rule. Reductions in body size, however, are unlikely to offset the 50 to 78% increase in cooling costs threatening desert birds from future climate change. As climate change spreads warm, dry conditions across the planet, water requirements are increasingly likely to drive population declines, providing a physiological basis for climate-driven extinctions.

No evidence that warmer temperatures are associated with selection for smaller body sizes

Reductions in animal body size over recent decades are often interpreted as an adaptive evolutionary response to climate warming. However, for reductions in size to reflect adaptive evolution, directional selection on body size within populations must have become negative, or where already negative, to have become more so, as temperatures increased. To test this hypothesis, we performed traditional and phylogenetic meta-analyses of the association between annual estimates of directional selection on body size from wild populations and annual mean temperatures from 39 longitudinal studies. We found no evidence that warmer environments were associated with selection for smaller size. Instead, selection consistently favoured larger individuals, and was invariant to temperature. These patterns were similar in ectotherms and endotherms. An analysis using year rather than temperature revealed similar patterns, suggesting no evidence that selection has changed over time, and also indicating that the lack of association with annual temperature was not an artefact of choosing an erroneous time window for aggregating the temperature data. Although phenotypic trends in size will be driven by a combination of genetic and environmental factors, our results suggest little evidence for a necessary ingredient-negative directional selection-for declines in body size to be considered an adaptive evolutionary response to changing selection pressures.

Experimental evidence of gradual size-dependent shifts in body size and growth of fish in response to warming

A challenge facing ecologists trying to predict responses to climate change is the few recent analogous conditions to use for comparison. For example, negative relationships between ectotherm body size and temperature are common both across natural thermal gradients and in small-scale experiments. However, it is unknown if short-term body size responses are representative of long-term responses. Moreover, to understand population responses to warming, we must recognize that individual responses to temperature may vary over ontogeny. To enable predictions of how climate warming may affect natural populations, we therefore ask how body size and growth may shift in response to increased temperature over life history, and whether short- and long-term growth responses differ. We addressed these questions using a unique setup with multidecadal artificial heating of an enclosed coastal bay in the Baltic Sea and an adjacent reference area (both with unexploited populations), using before-after control-impact paired time-series analyses. We assembled individual growth trajectories of ~13,000 unique individuals of Eurasian perch and found that body growth increased substantially after warming, but the extent depended on body size: Only among small-bodied perch did growth increase with temperature. Moreover, the strength of this response gradually increased over the 24 year warming period. Our study offers a unique example of how warming can affect fish populations over multiple generations, resulting in gradual changes in body growth, varying as organisms develop. Although increased juvenile growth rates are in line with predictions of the temperature-size rule, the fact that a larger body size at age was maintained over life history contrasts to that same rule. Because the artificially heated area is a contemporary system mimicking a warmer sea, our findings can aid predictions of fish responses to further warming, taking into account that growth responses may vary both over an individual's life history and over time.