Recent advances on the estimation of the thermal reaction norm for sex ratios

Adaptation of sea turtles to climate warming: Will phenological responses be sufficient to counteract changes in reproductive output?

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change since their reproductive output is influenced by incubating temperatures, with warmer temperatures causing lower hatching success and increased feminization of embryos. Their ability to cope with projected increases in ambient temperatures will depend on their capacity to adapt to shifts in climatic regimes. Here, we assessed the extent to which phenological shifts could mitigate impacts from increases in ambient temperatures (from 1.5 to 3°C in air temperatures and from 1.4 to 2.3°C in sea surface temperatures by 2100 at our sites) on four species of sea turtles, under a "middle of the road" scenario (SSP2-4.5). Sand temperatures at sea turtle nesting sites are projected to increase from 0.58 to 4.17°C by 2100 and expected shifts in nesting of 26-43 days earlier will not be sufficient to maintain current incubation temperatures at 7 (29%) of our sites, hatching success rates at 10 (42%) of our sites, with current trends in hatchling sex ratio being able to be maintained at half of the sites. We also calculated the phenological shifts that would be required (both backward for an earlier shift in nesting and forward for a later shift) to keep up with present-day incubation temperatures, hatching success rates, and sex ratios. The required shifts backward in nesting for incubation temperatures ranged from -20 to -191 days, whereas the required shifts forward ranged from +54 to +180 days. However, for half of the sites, no matter the shift the median incubation temperature will always be warmer than the 75th percentile of current ranges. Given that phenological shifts will not be able to ameliorate predicted changes in temperature, hatching success and sex ratio at most sites, turtles may need to use other adaptive responses and/or there is the need to enhance sea turtle resilience to climate warming.

HerpSexDet: the herpetological database of sex determination and sex reversal

Wildlife exhibits various sex-determination systems where sex chromosomes and environmental temperatures may both contribute to individual sexual development. The causes and consequences of this variability are important questions for evolutionary ecology, especially in light of ongoing environmental change. Amphibians and reptiles are emerging as a key group for studying these questions, with new data accumulating acceleratingly. We collected empirical data from earlier databases, reviews and primary literature to create the most up-to-date database on herpetological sex determination. We named our database HerpSexDet, which currently features data on genetic and temperature-dependent sex determination as well as reports on sex reversal for a total of 192 amphibian and 697 reptile species. This dataset, which we will regularly update in the future, facilitates interspecific comparative studies on the evolution of sex determination and its consequences for species-specific traits such as life history and conservation status, and may also help guiding future research by identifying species or higher taxa that are potentially most enlightening for the study of environmentally driven sex reversal.

Transcriptomic thermal plasticity underlying gonadal development in a turtle with ZZ/ZW sex chromosomes despite canalized genotypic sex determination

Understanding genome-wide responses to environmental conditions during embryogenesis is essential for discerning the evolution of developmental plasticity and canalization, two processes generating phenotypic variation targeted by natural selection. Here, we present the first comparative trajectory analysis of matched transcriptomic developmental time series from two reptiles incubated under identical conditions, a turtle with a ZZ/ZW system of genotypic sex determination (GSD), Apalone spinifera, and a turtle with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), Chrysemys picta. Results from our genome-wide, hypervariate gene expression analysis of sexed embryos across five developmental stages revealed that substantial transcriptional plasticity in the developing gonads can persist for >145 Myr, long after the canalization of sex determination via the evolution of sex chromosomes, while some gene-specific thermal sensitivity drifts or evolves anew. Such standing thermosensitivity represents an underappreciated evolutionary potential harbored by GSD species that may be co-opted during future adaptive shifts in developmental programing, such as a GSD to TSD reversal, if favored by ecological conditions. Additionally, we identified novel candidate regulators of vertebrate sexual development in GSD reptiles, including sex-determining candidate genes in a ZZ/ZW turtle.

Validating trends in olive ridley sea turtle nesting track counts in Guatemala in light of a national hatchery protection strategy

The olive ridley sea turtle Lepidochelys olivacea is the most abundant marine turtle species in Guatemala, representing > 99% of all nests. Along with other marine turtles, they are important both culturally and ecologically. Conservation efforts rely almost exclusively on an informal system whereby local residents can harvest olive ridley sea turtle nests on the condition they donate 20% of each nest to a hatchery, where the eggs are incubated and hatchlings later released. This system was initiated in the 1970s and, until recently, no effort has been made to determine its sustainability. In a 2020 publication based on tracks on a single beach in Guatemala and 15 years of egg incubation data from Guatemalan hatcheries, it was concluded that the population had increased. Several weaknesses were detected in this research. To verify the validity of the conclusion, we analysed data from 22 years (2 years are missing) and 11 beaches using several statistical models. We used an intraseasonal model of nesting phenology to fill in missing data for monitored periods during a nesting season, and a new method of spatial and temporal aggregation of nesting seasons. Based on our findings, we reject the hypothesis that olive ridley sea turtle nesting activity is increasing. The total nesting activity for these 12 beaches was stable over the 22-year period. Because of inconsistent hatchery management and the financial dependency of local communities on the sale of turtle eggs, the number of incubated eggs cannot be used as an indicator of the population trend of olive ridley sea turtles in Guatemala.

Latitudinal Variation in the Pattern of Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination in the Japanese Gecko, Gekko japonicus

Identifying latitudinal variation in the pattern of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) may provide insight into the evolution of sex determining system in vertebrates, but such studies remain limited. Here, we quantified TSD patterns of three geographically separated populations of the Japanese gecko (Gekko japonicus) along the latitudinal cline of China. We incubated gecko eggs from the three populations at constant temperatures of 24, 26, 28, 30, and 32 °C to quantify the TSD pattern. Our study demonstrated that G. japonicus exhibited a FMF pattern of TSD, with the low and high incubation temperatures yielding significantly female-biased hatchlings, and the medium temperatures producing male-biased hatchlings. More interestingly, we found latitudinal variations in the TSD pattern in terms of pivotal temperatures (Tpivs), transitional range of temperatures (TRT), and the sex ratios at the medium temperatures. The Tpivs for the low-latitude population were lower than those for the two high-latitude populations. The low-latitude population has a narrower FM TRT, but a wider MF TRT. The sex ratio is almost 50:50 for the low-latitude population when eggs were incubated from 26 to 30 °C. Conversely, the sex ratio is male-biased for the two high-latitude populations at 28 or 30 °C. Therefore, G. japonicus may provide an interesting system to explore the evolution of TSD in reptiles given the diversity of TSD patterns among populations.

Hatching Success Rather Than Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination as the Main Driver of Olive Ridley (Lepidochelys olivacea) Nesting Activity in the Pacific Coast of Central America

In marine turtles, sex is determined during a precise period during incubation: males are produced at lower temperatures and females at higher temperatures, a phenomenon called temperature-dependent sex determination. Nest temperature depends on many factors, including solar radiation. Albedo is the measure of the proportion of reflected solar radiation, and in terms of sand color, black sand absorbs the most energy, while white sand reflects more solar radiation. Based on this observation, darker sand beaches with higher temperatures should produce more females. As marine turtles show a high degree of philopatry, including natal homing, dark beaches should also produce more female hatchlings that return to nest when mature. When sand color is heterogeneous in a region, we hypothesize that darker beaches would have the most nests. Nevertheless, the high incubation temperature on beaches with a low albedo may result in low hatching success. Using Google Earth images and the SWOT database of nesting olive ridleys (Lepidochelys olivacea) in the Pacific coast of Mexico and Central America, we modeled sand color and nesting activity to test the hypothesis that darker beaches host larger concentrations of females because of feminization on darker beaches and female philopatry. We found the opposite result: the lower hatching success at beaches with a lower albedo could be the main driver of nesting activity heterogeneity for olive ridleys in Central America.

Effects of global warming on species with temperature-dependent sex determination: Bridging the gap between empirical research and management

Global warming could threaten over 400 species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) worldwide, including all species of sea turtle. During embryonic development, rising temperatures might lead to the overproduction of one sex and, in turn, could bias populations' sex ratios to an extent that threatens their persistence. If climate change predictions are correct, and biased sex ratios reduce population viability, species with TSD may go rapidly extinct unless adaptive mechanisms, whether behavioural, physiological or molecular, exist to buffer these temperature-driven effects. Here, we summarize the discovery of the TSD phenomenon and its still elusive evolutionary significance. We then review the molecular pathways underpinning TSD in model species, along with the hormonal mechanisms that interact with temperatures to determine an individual's sex. To illustrate evolutionary mechanisms that can affect sex determination, we focus on sea turtle biology, discussing both the adaptive potential of this threatened TSD taxon, and the risks associated with conservation mismanagement.

Climate change and marine turtles: recent advances and future directions

Climate change is a threat to marine turtles that is expected to affect all of their life stages. To guide future research, we conducted a review of the most recent literature on this topic, highlighting knowledge gains and research gaps since a similar previous review in 2009. Most research has been focussed on the terrestrial life history phase, where expected impacts will range from habitat loss and decreased reproductive success to feminization of populations, but changes in reproductive periodicity, shifts in latitudinal ranges, and changes in foraging success are all expected in the marine life history phase. Models have been proposed to improve estimates of primary sex ratios, while technological advances promise a better understanding of how climate can influence different life stages and habitats. We suggest a number of research priorities for an improved understanding of how climate change may impact marine turtles, including: improved estimates of primary sex ratios, assessments of the implications of female-biased sex ratios and reduced male production, assessments of the variability in upper thermal limits of clutches, models of beach sediment movement under sea level rise, and assessments of impacts on foraging grounds. Lastly, we suggest that it is not yet possible to recommend manipulating aspects of turtle nesting ecology, as the evidence base with which to understand the results of such interventions is not robust enough, but that strategies for mitigation of stressors should be helpful, providing they consider the synergistic effects of climate change and other anthropogenic-induced threats to marine turtles, and focus on increasing resilience.

Population Viability of Sea Turtles in the Context of Global Warming

Sea turtles present a model for the potential impacts of climate change on imperiled species, with projected warming generating concern about their persistence. Various sea turtle life-history traits are affected by temperature; most strikingly, warmer egg incubation temperatures cause female-biased sex ratios and higher embryo mortality. Predictions of sea turtle resilience to climate change are often focused on how resulting male limitation or reduced offspring production may affect populations. In the present article, by reviewing research on sea turtles, we provide an overview of how temperature impacts on incubating eggs may cascade through life history to ultimately affect population viability. We explore how sex-specific patterns in survival and breeding periodicity determine the differences among offspring, adult, and operational sex ratios. We then discuss the implications of skewed sex ratios for male-limited reproduction, consider the negative correlation between sex ratio skew and genetic diversity, and examine consequences for adaptive potential. Our synthesis underscores the importance of considering the effects of climate throughout the life history of any species. Lethal effects (e.g., embryo mortality) are relatively direct impacts, but sublethal effects at immature life-history stages may not alter population growth rates until cohorts reach reproductive maturity. This leaves a lag during which some species transition through several stages subject to distinct biological circumstances and climate impacts. These perspectives will help managers conceptualize the drivers of emergent population dynamics and identify existing knowledge gaps under different scenarios of predicted environmental change.

Predicting the effects of climate change on incubation in reptiles: methodological advances and new directions

The unprecedented advancement of global climate change is affecting thermal conditions across spatial and temporal scales. Reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) are uniquely vulnerable to even fine-scale variation in incubation conditions and are a model system for investigating the impacts of shifting temperatures on key physiological and life-history traits. The ways in which current and predicted future climatic conditions translate from macro- to ultra-fine scale temperature traces in subterranean nests is insufficiently understood. Reliably predicting the ways in which fine-scale, daily and seasonally fluctuating nest temperatures influence embryonic development and offspring phenotypes is a goal that remains constrained by many of the same logistical challenges that have persisted throughout more than four decades of research on TSD. However, recent advances in microclimate and developmental modeling should allow us to move farther away from relatively coarse metrics with limited predictive capacity and towards a fully mechanistic model of TSD that can predict incubation conditions and phenotypic outcomes for a variety of reptile species across space and time and for any climate scenario.

Linking Ecology, Morphology, and Behavior to Conservation: Lessons Learned from Studies of Sea Turtles

Here we describe examples of studies that have contributed both to a basic understanding of the biology of imperiled marine turtles, and to their management and conservation. Key elements include, first and foremost, correctly identifying species that differ strikingly in their morphology at different life stages because with growth, they change size by several orders of magnitude and have accompanying shape changes. We also review comprehensive field studies documenting the need for management actions to correct abnormal shifts in sex ratios caused by climate change. We highlight the need to describe those perturbations in terms that are clear to regulators and personnel responsible for management and conservation policies. Finally, we review several basic studies that enhance our understanding of how selection has shaped morphological, functional, and performance attributes, and describe how that knowledge can be applied to the tasks required for enhancing species recovery.