Temporal Changes in Esophageal Cancer Mortality by Geographic Region: A Population-based Analysis

Machine learning‑based prediction of survival prognosis in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

The current prognostic tools for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) lack the necessary accuracy to facilitate individualized patient management strategies. To address this issue, this study was conducted to develop a machine learning (ML) prediction model for ESCC patients' survival management. Six ML approaches, including Rpart, Elastic Net, GBM, Random Forest, GLMboost, and the machine learning-extended CoxPH method, were employed to develop risk prediction models. The model was trained on a dataset of 1954 ESCC patients with 27 clinical features and validated on a dataset of 487 ESCC patients. The discriminative performance of the models was assessed using the concordance index (C-index). The best performing model was used for risk stratification and clinical evaluation. The study found that N stage, T stage, surgical margin, tumor grade, tumor length, sex, MPV, AST, FIB, and Mg are the important feature for ESCC patients' survival. The machine learning-extended CoxPH model, Elastic Net, and Random Forest had similar performance in predicting the mortality risk of ESCC patients, and outperformed GBM, GLMboost, and Rpart. The risk scores derived from the CoxPH model effectively stratified ESCC patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups with distinctly different 3-year overall survival (OS) probabilities of 80.8%, 58.2%, and 29.5%, respectively. This risk stratification was also observed in the validation cohort. Furthermore, the risk model demonstrated greater discriminative ability and net benefit than the AJCC8th stage, suggesting its potential as a prognostic tool for predicting survival events and guiding clinical decision-making. The classical algorithm of the CoxPH method was also found to be sufficiently good for interpretive studies.

A Review of Medical Student First-Author Publications in Plastic Surgery

The integrated plastic surgery residency match is a highly competitive process. If performed wisely, medical research is an opportunity to differentiate applications from peers, and productivity is closely evaluated by residency programs. In this study, the authors aimed to characterize medical student research productivity for integrated plastic surgery residency programs and their respective medical schools. To this end, the authors performed a retrospective review of senior author publications from the 81 integrated plastic surgery programs from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. The primary outcome was a publication with a medical student as the first author. Secondary outcomes included the number of faculty from each program, the geographic region of the program, and the ranking of associated medical schools. It was found that the average number of medical student first-author publications and faculty members per institution were 14.0 and 11.0, respectively. There was a positive correlation between the number of faculty members and several medical student first-author publications for a program (R = 0.54, P < 0.0001). The average number of medical student first-author publications was higher in the top 25 programs than for the remaining programs (P < 0.001), and most medical student first-author publications in the United States were produced by 10 plastic surgery programs. From these findings, it was concluded that these programs associated with higher-ranking medical schools produce greater numbers of medical student first-author publications. These analyses of medical student academic productivity should be a highly useful guide for current and future medical students as they strategize their successful match into plastic surgery.

Langerhans Cell Histiocytosis of the Head and Neck: Experience at a Rural Tertiary Referral Center

OBJECTIVES

Retrospectively analyze head and neck Langerhans Cell Histiocytosis at a rural tertiary referral center and compare results with previously published data.

METHODS

Electronic health record review was performed from 2003 to 2019. Patients with biopsy proven LCH with primary head and neck involvement were included. Demographics, presentation, imaging characteristics, treatment modality, delay in diagnosis (DD, ≥60 days), and outcomes were analyzed and reported.

RESULTS

Twenty-four patients were included. The most common presenting symptoms were otorrhea (n = 6) and scalp pain or swelling (n = 6). All patients had bony involvement. The most common site was facial or skull lesions (n = 20). Most skull lesions (75%) demonstrated CNS risk. Six patients were treated with primary surgery, 15 with primary chemotherapy, and 3 with surgery plus adjuvant chemotherapy. Nine patients experienced relapse of disease with median time to documented relapse of 11.4 months; all were treated with salvage chemotherapy to achieve complete remission (median follow-up: 72 months). Patients most likely to relapse were those with multisystem disease (5/7, 71.4%), temporal bone lesions (4/7, 57.1%), and DD (7/12, 58.3%). Of the 9 total patients who experienced relapse, 78% had a delay in diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

LCH is a complex disease process in which diagnosis can be delayed if not considered in the differential. Within the head and neck, the skull, including isolated temporal bone involvement, is the most common site of involvement. Treatment modality does not appear to have an influence on relapse rates. Relapse was more likely to occur in the first year after treatment and close monitoring is required.

Comparison of clinical outcomes of conservative treatment and surgery for esophageal cancer patients who achieve a clinical complete response following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Although the clinical complete response (cCR) for esophageal cancer patients after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) may be related to the good survival prognosis, the choice of conservative and surgical treatments is still controversial. This study sought to compare the clinical outcomes of these two treatments.

Methods

A systematic search was conducted according to the guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses of the PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases to retrieve articles published between January 1, 2010 and March 31, 2022 on the efficacy of conservative treatment or surgery in esophageal cancer patients who had achieved a cCR after nCRT The predominant endpoints were overall survival (OS), disease-free-survival (DFS), local recurrence, and distant metastasis. Odds ratios (ORs) were generated for the dichotomous variants by meta-analysis. The software implemented was Stata 16.0 MP. This research was prospectively registered under PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42022332143).

Results

Ultimately, eight retrospective cohort studies and one randomized controlled trial, comprising 749 patients (nCRT group: 333 and nCRT + surgery group: 416), were included in the meta-analysis after two researchers independently assessed the risk of bias for all included studies. The 2-year OS [OR =1.239, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.891 to 1.723] and 5-year OS (OR =1.369, 95% CI: 0.963 to 1.947) were comparable between the nCRT group and nCRT plus surgery (nCRT + S) group. Patients in the nCRT + S group had significantly longer DFS (2 and 5 years, OR ranging from 0.303 to 0.357) and lower local recurrence rate (OR =0.179, 95% CI: 0.104 to 0.291) than those in the nCRT group. However, the distant metastasis rate was similar between the nCRT group and the nCRT + S group.

Conclusions

Esophageal cancer patients who achieved a cCR after nCRT and received an esophagectomy had better DFS and lower local recurrence than those who received conservative treatment; however, this DFS advantage did not lead to a significant difference in OS. Salvage surgery may be a feasible option for resectable patients who have local recurrence after achieving cCR.

Patterns of failure and long-term outcome of postoperative radiotherapy on the survival of patients with pathological T3N0M0 esophageal cancer

Purpose

The prognostic effect of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) on pathological T3N0M0 (pT3N0M0) esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) remains inconclusive. This study aimed to retrospectively investigate patterns of failure and whether PORT after R0 resection improves survival in patients with pT3N0M0 ESCC, compared with surgery alone.

Patients and methods

The clinical data of 256 patients with pT3N0M0 ESCC from January 2007 to December 2010 were retrospectively reviewed. The included patients were classified into two groups: the surgery-plus-postoperative radiotherapy group (S + R) and the surgery-alone group (S). Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to create comparable groups that were balanced across several covariates (n = 71 in each group). Statistical analyses were performed using the Kaplan–Meier method and Chi-squared test.

Results

In the study cohort, the 5- and 10-year overall survival (OS) rates in the S + R group were 53.4% and 38.4%, and those in the S group were 50.3%, 40.9% (p = 0.810), respectively. The 5- and 10-year disease-free survival (DFS) rates in the S + R group were 47.9% and 32.9%, and those in the S group were 43.2%, 24.0% (p = 0.056), respectively. The results were coincident in the matched samples (p = 0.883, 0.081) after PSM. Subgroup analysis showed that patients with upper thoracic lesions in the S + R group had significantly higher OS than patients in the S group (p = 0.013), in addition, patients with upper and middle thoracic lesions in the S + R group had significantly higher DFS than patients in the S group (p = 0.018, 0.049). The results were also confirmed in the matched samples after PSM. The locoregional recurrence between the two groups were significantly different before and after PSM (p = 0.009, 0.002). The locoregional control rate (LCR) in the S + R group was significantly higher than that in the S group before and after PSM (p = 0.015, 0.008).

Conclusion

Postoperative radiotherapy may be associated with a survival benefit for patients with pT3N0M0 upper thoracic ESCC. A multicenter, randomized phase III clinical trial is required to confirm the results of this study.

Analysis of clinical outcomes and prognostic factors in patients treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma

As patients receiving definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT) for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) are heterogeneous, we aimed to identify prognostic factors and failure patterns after dCRT. From 2006 to 2015, 327 patients who received dCRT for ESCC were reviewed. Treatment response to dCRT was evaluated based on EORTC-PET criteria with endoscopy and CT results. After dCRT, 296 patients (90.5%) achieved disease stabilisation, with 132 cases of complete response (CR) (40.4%), 158 of partial response (PR) (48.3%) and 6 of stable disease (SD) (1.8%); 31 patients (9.5%) had progressive disease (PD). Median overall survival (OS) from response evaluation was 24.0 months in the overall population. Post-treatment clinical response was the most significant prognostic factor for OS in the multivariate analysis (median OS, 65.0 months for CR, 17.3 months for PR, 4.4 months for SD and 4.0 months for PD; p < 0.0001). Median progression-free survival (PFS) in 296 patients who achieved disease stabilisation was 13.1 months, and only clinical response was a significant factor in the multivariate analysis. The median PFS of CR, PR and SD patients were 36.9, 9.2 and 2.8 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). The clinical response was also significantly associated with the predominant failure pattern (locoregional failure [81.6%] in the initial non-PD group vs. distant metastasis [87.1%] in the initial PD group [p < 0.0001]). In conclusion, definitive chemoradiotherapy-treated ESCC patients showed highly different prognoses after treatment especially according to the clinical response to chemoradiotherapy.

Focus on patients with early esophageal cancer-a prognostic nomogram

Background

Esophageal cancer is a common cancer of the digestive system, with high morbidity and poor prognosis. However, while the prognosis of early esophageal cancer is relatively good, there is no effective model to accurately predict the prognosis of early esophageal cancer. The Aims of this study are to explore risk factors for the prognosis of early esophageal cancer and to establish a prediction nomogram for patients.

Methods

Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Stat 8.3.5 was used to collect 2,351 cases of early esophageal cancer from 2004 to 2015 in the SEER database. Early esophageal cancer is defined as a lesion that is confined to the lamina propria and the muscularis mucosa. Prognostic factors were analyzed with the log-rank method and a Cox proportional hazard model by SPSS (v25.0). Independent prognostic factors were used to construct a nomogram with a Cox proportional hazard model. The C-index was used to evaluate the prediction effect of the nomogram. The internal validity of the nomogram was tested by discrimination and calibration using a bootstrap method with 1,000 resamplings.

Results

The median survival time was 30 months, and the 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 65.2%, 46.8%, and 41.6%, respectively. The male to female ratio was 3:1, and 85.33% of all patients were white. Univariate analysis showed that risk factors affecting patient prognosis included age (χ²=430.631, P<0.001), sex (χ²=48.1, P<0.001), marital status (χ²=107.597, P<0.001), race (χ²=58.928, P<0.001), primary site (χ²=98.675, P<0.001), tumor grade (χ²=116.421, P<0.001), surgery (χ²=1,259.33, P<0.001) and histologic type (χ²=231.062, P<0.001). Using multivariate analysis, we found that age (HR=1.787, 95% CI: 1.58–2.03), marital status (HR=0.774, 95% CI: 0.69–0.87), tumor grade (HR=1.241, 95% CI: 1.14–135), and surgery (HR=0.356, 95% CI: 0.33–0.39) were independent prognostic factors for patients with early esophageal cancer. We constructed the nomogram with the above independent factors, and the C-index value was 0.788.

Conclusions

This study obtained the latest epidemiological information on early esophageal cancer and determined that age, marital status, tumor grade and surgery were independent prognostic factors for early esophageal cancer. The nomogram developed with these factors could provide good prognosis prediction.

Conditional survival after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgery for oesophageal cancer

Background

Conditional survival accounts for the time already survived after surgery and may be of additional informative value. The aim was to assess conditional survival in patients with oesophageal cancer and to create a nomogram predicting the conditional probability of survival after oesophagectomy.

Methods

This retrospective study included consecutive patients with oesophageal cancer who received neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by oesophagectomy between January 2004 and 2019. Conditional survival was defined as the probability of surviving y years after already surviving for x years. The formula used for conditional survival (CS) was: CS_(x|y) = S_(x + y)/S_(x), where S_(x) represents overall survival at x years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate predictors of overall survival. A nomogram was constructed to predict 5‐year survival directly after surgery and given survival for 1, 2, 3 and 4 years after surgery.

Results

Some 660 patients were included. Median overall survival was 44·4 (95 per cent c.i. 37·0 to 51·8) months. The probability of achieving 5‐year overall survival after resection increased from 45 per cent directly after surgery to 54, 65, 79 and 88 per cent given 1, 2, 3 and 4 years already survived respectively. Cardiac co‐morbidity, cN category, ypT category, ypN category, chyle leakage and pulmonary complications were independent predictors of survival. The nomogram predicted 5‐year survival using these predictors and number of years already survived.

Conclusion

The probability of achieving 5‐year overall survival after oesophagectomy for cancer increases with each additional year survived. The proposed nomogram predicts survival in patients after oesophagectomy, taking the years already survived into account.