Editor's Choice- Impact of identifying precipitating factors on 30-day mortality in acute heart failure patients

Infection as an under-recognized precipitant of acute heart failure: prognostic and therapeutic implications

As the prevalence of heart failure (HF) continues to rise, prompt diagnosis and management of various medical conditions, which may lead to HF exacerbation and result in poor patient outcomes, are of paramount importance. Infection has been identified as a common, though under-recognized, precipitating factor of acute heart failure (AHF), which can cause rapid development or deterioration of HF signs and symptoms. Available evidence indicates that infection-related hospitalizations of patients with AHF are associated with higher mortality, protracted length of stay, and increased readmission rates. Understanding the intricate interaction of both clinical entities may provide further therapeutic strategies to prevent the occurrence of cardiac complications and improve prognosis of patients with AHF triggered by infection. The purpose of this review is to investigate the incidence of infection as a causative factor in AHF, explore its prognostic implications, elucidate the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms, and highlight the basic principles of the initial diagnostic and therapeutic interventions in the emergency department.

Effect of Flu Vaccination on Severity and Outcome of Heart Failure Decompensations

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the relationship of seasonal flu vaccination with the severity of decompensation and long-term outcomes of patients with heart failure (HF).

METHODS

We analyzed 6147 consecutively enrolled patients with decompensated HF who presented to 33 Spanish emergency departments (EDs) during January and February of 2018 and 2019, grouped according to seasonal flu vaccination status. The severity of HF decompensation was assessed by the Multiple Estimation of Risk Based on the Emergency Department Spanish Score in Patients With Acute Heart Failure (MEESSI-AHF) + MEESSI scale, need of hospitalization and in-hospital all-cause mortality. The long-term outcomes analyzed were 90-day postdischarge adverse events and 90-day all-cause death. Associations between vaccination, HF decompensation severity and long-term outcomes were explored by unadjusted and adjusted logistic and Cox regressions by using 14 covariables that could act as potential confounders.

RESULTS

Overall median (IQR) age was 84 (IQR = 77-89) years, and 56% were women. Vaccinated patients (n = 1139; 19%) were older, had more comorbidities and had worse baseline status, as assessed by New York Heart Association class and Barthel index, than did unvaccinated patients (n = 5008; 81%). Infection triggering decompensation was more common in vaccinated patients (50% vs 41%; P < 0.001). In vaccinated and unvaccinated patients, high or very-high risk decompensation was seen in 21.9% and 21.1%; hospitalization occurred in 72.5% and 73.7%; in-hospital mortality was 7.4% and 7.0%; 90-day postdischarge adverse events were 57.4% and 53.2%; and the 90-day mortality rate was 15.8% and 16.6%, respectively, with no significant differences between cohorts. After adjusting, vaccinated decompensated patients with HF had decreased odds for hospitalization (OR = 0.823, 95%CI = 0.709-0.955).

CONCLUSION

In patients with HF, seasonal flu vaccination is associated with less severe decompensations.

Interleukin-6, infection and cardiovascular outcomes in acute heart failure: Findings from the EDIFICA registry

AIMS

Interleukin-6 (IL-6) is upregulated in response to infectious and inflammatory triggers and independently predicts all-cause mortality in acute heart failure (AHF). However, the association of IL-6 with cardiovascular outcomes and its interplay with C-reactive protein and infection, a major precipitating factor in AHF, remains poorly understood.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The association between IL-6 and clinical outcomes (180 days) in AHF was evaluated using a cohort of 164 patients from the EDIFICA registry. Median IL-6 levels at admission were 17.4 pg/mL. Patients in the higher admission IL-6 tertile presented with lower blood pressure and more congestion, were diagnosed more frequently with infection, and had a longer hospital stay. Higher IL-6 levels were associated with increased risk of HF rehospitalization (hazard ratio per log₂ 3.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.26-10.8, p =.017) and the composite of HF rehospitalization or cardiovascular death (hazard ratio per log₂ 3.50; 95% CI 1.28-9.57; p =.014), independently of major AHF prognosticators, including B-type natriuretic peptide and renal function. However, no independent associations were found for all-cause rehospitalization or mortality. Despite a moderate correlation of IL-6 with C-reactive protein (CRP) levels (R = .51), the latter were not associated with clinical outcomes in this population.

CONCLUSIONS

IL-6 levels associate with higher rate of cardiovascular events in AHF, independently of classical prognosticators and evidence of infection, outperforming CRP as an inflammatory outcome biomarker.

Association of peripheral venous pressure with adverse post-discharge outcomes in patients with acute heart failure: a prospective cohort study

AIMS

Congestion is the major cause of hospitalization for heart failure (HF). Traditional bedside assessment of congestion is limited by insufficient accuracy. Peripheral venous pressure (PVP) has recently been shown to accurately predict central venous congestion. We examined the association between PVP before discharge and post-discharge outcomes in hospitalized patients with acute HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Bedside PVP measurement at the forearm vein and traditional clinical examination were performed in 239 patients. The association with the primary composite endpoint of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization and the incremental prognostic value beyond the established HF risk score was examined. The PVP correlated with peripheral oedema, jugular venous pressure, and inferior vena cava diameter, but not with brain-type natriuretic peptide. The 1-year incidence of the primary outcome measure in the first, second, and third tertiles of PVP was 21.4, 29.9, and 40.7%, respectively (log-rank P = 0.017). The adjusted hazard ratio of PVP per 1 mmHg increase for the 1-year outcome was 1.08 [95% confidence interval (1.03-1.14), P = 0.004]. When added onto the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic HF risk score, PVP significantly increased the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for predicting the outcome [from 0.63 (0.56-0.71) to 0.70 (0.62-0.77), P = 0.02), while traditional assessments did not. The addition of PVP also yielded significant net reclassification improvement [0.46 (0.19-0.74), P < 0.001].

CONCLUSION

The PVP at discharge correlated with prognosis. The results warrant further investigation to evaluate the clinical application of PVP measurement in the care of HF.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

UMIN000034279.

Acute Heart Failure in the 2021 ESC Heart Failure Guidelines: a scientific statement from the Association for Acute CardioVascular Care (ACVC) of the European Society of Cardiology

The current European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Heart Failure Guidelines are the most comprehensive ESC document covering heart failure to date; however, the section focused on acute heart failure remains relatively too concise. Although several topics are more extensively covered than in previous versions, including some specific therapies, monitoring and disposition in the hospital, and the management of cardiogenic shock, the lack of high-quality evidence in acute, emergency, and critical care scenarios, poses a challenge for providing evidence-based recommendations, in particular when by comparison the data for chronic heart failure is so extensive. The paucity of evidence and specific recommendations for the general approach and management of acute heart failure in the emergency department is particularly relevant, because this is the setting where most acute heart failure patients are initially diagnosed and stabilized. The clinical phenotypes proposed are comprehensive, clinically relevant and with minimal overlap, whilst providing additional opportunity for discussion around respiratory failure and hypoperfusion.

Clinical Characteristics and Predictors of In-Hospital Mortality among Older Patients with Acute Heart Failure

Acute Heart Failure (AHF)-related hospitalizations and mortality are still high in western countries, especially among older patients. This study aimed to describe the clinical characteristics and predictors of in-hospital mortality of older patients hospitalized with AHF. We conducted a retrospective study including all consecutive patients ≥65 years who were admitted for AHF at a single academic medical center between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2018. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality. We also analyzed deaths due to cardiovascular (CV) and non-CV causes and compared early in-hospital events. The study included 6930 patients, mean age 81 years, 51% females. The overall mortality rate was 13%. Patients ≥85 years had higher mortality and early death rate than younger patients. Infections were the most common condition precipitating AHF in our cohort, and pneumonia was the most frequent of these. About half of all hospital deaths were due to non-CV causes. After adjusting for confounding factors other than NYHA class at admission, infections were associated with an almost two-fold increased risk of mortality, HR 1.74, 95% CI 1.10-2.71 in patients 65-74 years (p = 0.014); HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.34-2.49 in patients 75-84 years (p = 0.001); HR 1.74, 95% CI 1.24-2.19 in patients ≥85 years (p = 0.001). In conclusion, among older patients with AHF, in-hospital mortality rates increased with increasing age, and infections were associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality. In contemporary patients with AHF, along with the treatment of the CV conditions, management should be focused on timely diagnosis and appropriate treatment of non-CV factors, especially pulmonary infections.

Prognostic Implications of Reductions in Heart Rates in Patients With Acute Heart Failure and Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). Heart rate (HR) also changes significantly over time. However, the association between changes in HR in AF patients and prognosis is uncertain.Methods and Results:We investigated the association between HR reduction in AF achieved within 48 h of admission and 60-day mortality in patients with AHF from the REALITY-AHF study. The percentage HR (%HR) reduction was calculated as (baseline HR-HR at 48 h) / baseline HR × 100. The primary endpoint was 60-day all-cause mortality. In 468 patients with confirmed AF at both admission and 48 h after admission, the median HR at these time points was 105±31 and 84±18 beats/min, respectively. The median %HR reduction was 15.4% (interquartile range 2.2-31.4%). During the 60 days of admission, 39 deaths (8.3%) were recorded, and the %HR reduction within 48 h was significantly associated with 60-day mortality in the unadjusted model (hazard ratio [HR] 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.95; P=0.005) and after adjusting for other covariates (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.68-0.96; P=0.016).Furthermore, the %HR reduction was associated with a significant reduction in 60-day mortality in patients with higher baseline HR.

CONCLUSIONS

%HR reduction is associated with a better short-term prognosis in patients with AHF presenting with AF, particularly in those with a rapid ventricular response.

Survival analyses in cardiovascular research, part I: the essentials

This review provides a practical guide to the essentials of survival analysis and their reporting in cardiovascular studies, although most of its key content can be extrapolated to other medical fields. This is the first in a series of 2 educational articles laying the groundwork to address the most relevant statistical issues in survival analyses, which will smoothly drive the reader from the most basic analyses to the most complex situations. The focus will be on the type and shape of survival data, and the most common statistical methods, such as nonparametric, parametric and semiparametric models. Their adequacy, interpretation, advantages and disadvantages are illustrated by examples from the field of cardiovascular research. This article ends with a set of recommendations to guide the strategy of survival analyses for a randomized clinical trial and observational studies. Other topics, such as competing risks, multistate models and recurrent-event methods will be addressed in the second article.

Risk stratification scores for patients with acute heart failure in the Emergency Department: A systematic review

AIMS

This study aimed to systematically identify and summarise all risk scores evaluated in the emergency department setting to stratify acute heart failure patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A systematic review of PubMed and Web of Science was conducted including all multicentre studies reporting the use of risk predictive models in emergency department acute heart failure patients. Exclusion criteria were: (a) non-original articles; (b) prognostic models without predictive purposes; and (c) risk models without consecutive patient inclusion or exclusively tested in patients admitted to a hospital ward. We identified 28 studies reporting findings on 19 scores: 13 were originally derived in the emergency department (eight exclusively using acute heart failure patients), and six in emergency department and hospitalised patients. The outcome most frequently predicted was 30-day mortality. The performance of the scores tended to be higher for outcomes occurring closer to the index acute heart failure event. The eight scores developed using acute heart failure patients only in the emergency department contained between 4-13 predictors (age, oxygen saturation and creatinine/urea included in six scores). Five scores (Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade, Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade 30 Day mortality ST depression, Epidemiology of Acute Heart Failure in Emergency department 3 Day, Acute Heart Failure Risk Score, and Multiple Estimation of risk based on Emergency department Spanish Score In patients with Acute Heart Failure) have been externally validated in the same country, and two (Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade and Multiple Estimation of risk based on Emergency department Spanish Score In patients with Acute Heart Failure) further internationally validated. The c-statistic for Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade to predict seven-day mortality was between 0.74-0.81 and for Multiple Estimation of risk based on Emergency department Spanish Score In patients with Acute Heart Failure to predict 30-day mortality was 0.80-0.84.

CONCLUSIONS

There are several scales for risk stratification of emergency department acute heart failure patients. Two of them are accurate, have been adequately validated and may be useful in clinical decision-making in the emergency department i.e. about whether to admit or discharge.

Synergistic Impact of Systolic Blood Pressure and Perfusion Status on Mortality in Acute Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Physical examination remains the cornerstone in the assessment of acute heart failure. There is a lack of adequately powered studies assessing the combined impact of both systolic blood pressure (SBP) and hypoperfusion on short-term mortality.

METHODS

Patients with acute heart failure from 41 Spanish emergency departments were recruited consecutively in 3 time periods between 2011 and 2016. Logistic regression models were used to assess the association of 30-day mortality with SBP (<90, 90-109, 110-129, and ≥130 mm Hg) and with manifestations of hypoperfusion (cold skin, cutaneous pallor, delayed capillary refill, livedo reticularis, and mental confusion) at admission.

RESULTS

Among 10 979 patients, 1143 died within the first 30 days (10.2%). There was an inverse association between 30-day mortality and initial SBP (35.4%, 18.9%, 12.4%, and 7.5% for SBP<90, SBP 90-109, SBP 110-129, and SBP≥130 mm Hg, respectively; P<0.001) and a positive association with hypoperfusion (8.0%, 14.8%, and 27.6% for those with none, 1, ≥2 signs/symptoms of hypoperfusion, respectively; P<0.001). After adjustment for 11 risk factors, the prognostic impact of hypoperfusion on 30-day mortality varied across SBP categories: SBP≥130 mm Hg (odds ratio [OR]=1.03 [95% CI, 0.77-1.36] and OR=1.18 [95% CI, 0.86-1.62] for 1 and ≥2 compared with 0 manifestations of hypoperfusion), SBP 110 to 129 mm Hg (OR=1.23 [95% CI, 0.86-1.77] and OR=2.18 [95% CI, 1.44-3.31], respectively), SBP 90 to 109 mm Hg (OR=1.29 [95% CI, 0.79-2.10] and OR=2.24 [95% CI, 1.36-3.66], respectively), and SBP<90 mm Hg (OR=1.34 [95% CI, 0.45-4.01] and OR=3.22 [95% CI, 1.30-7.97], respectively); P-for-interaction =0.043.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypoperfusion confers an incremental risk of 30-day all-cause mortality not only in patients with low SBP but also in normotensive patients. On admission, physical examination plays a major role in determining prognosis in patients with acute heart failure.

MEESSI-AHF risk score performance to predict multiple post-index event and post-discharge short-term outcomes

BACKGROUND

The multiple estimation of risk based on the emergency department Spanish score in patients with acute heart failure (MEESSI-AHF) is a risk score designed to predict 30-day mortality in acute heart failure patients admitted to the emergency department. Using a derivation cohort, we evaluated the performance of the MEESSI-AHF risk score to predict 11 different short-term outcomes.

METHODS

Patients with acute heart failure from 41 Spanish emergency departments (n=7755) were recruited consecutively in two time periods (2014 and 2016). Logistic regression models based on the MEESSI-AHF risk score were used to obtain c-statistics for 11 outcomes: three with follow-up from emergency department admission (inhospital, 7-day and 30-day mortality) and eight with follow-up from discharge (7-day mortality, emergency department revisit and their combination; and 30-day mortality, hospital admission, emergency department revisit and their two combinations with mortality).

RESULTS

The MEESSI-AHF risk score strongly predicted mortality outcomes with follow-up starting at emergency department admission (c-statistic 0.83 for 30-day mortality; 0.82 for inhospital death, P=0.121; and 0.85 for 7-day mortality, P=0.001). Overall, mortality outcomes with follow-up starting at hospital discharge predicted slightly less well (c-statistic 0.80 for 7-day mortality, P=0.011; and 0.75 for 30-day mortality, P<0.001). In contrast, the MEESSI-AHF score predicted poorly outcomes involving emergency department revisit or hospital admission alone or combined with mortality (c-statistics 0.54 to 0.62).

CONCLUSIONS

The MEESSI-AHF risk score strongly predicts mortality outcomes in acute heart failure patients admitted to the emergency department, but the model performs poorly for outcomes involving hospital admission or emergency department revisit. There is a need to optimise this risk score to predict non-fatal events more effectively.