A 4-year study of bovine reproductive hormones that are induced by pharmaceuticals and appear as steroid estrogenic pollutants in the resulting slurry, using in vitro and instrumental analytical methods

The main objective of the research was to study the environmental "price" of the large-scale, milk production from a rarely known perspective, from the mapping of the estrogenic footprint (the amount of oestrus-inducer hormonal products, and the generated endoestrogens) in the resulting slurry in a dairy cow farm. These micropollutants are endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) and can be dangerous to the normal reproductive functions even at ng/kg concentration. One of them, 17ß-estradiol, has a 20,000 times stronger estrogenic effect than bisphenol-A, a widely known EDC of industrial origin. While most studies on EDCs are short-term and/or laboratory based, this study is longitudinal and field-based. We sampled the slurry pool on a quarterly basis between 2017 and 2020. Our purpose was testing the estrogenic effects using a dual approach. As an effect-based, holistic method, we developed and used the YES (yeast estrogen screen) test employing the genetically modified Saccharomyces cerevisiae BJ3505 strain which contains human estrogenic receptor. For testing exact molecules, UHPLC-FLD was used. Our study points out that slurry contains a growing amount of EDCs with the risk of penetrating into the soil, crops and the food chain. Considering the Green Chemistry concept, the most benign ways to prevent of the pollution of the slurry is choosing appropriate oestrus-inducing veterinary pharmaceuticals (OIVPs) and the separation of the solid and liquid parts with adequate treatment methods. To our knowledge, this is the first paper on the adaptation of the YES test for medicine and slurry samples, extending its applicability. The adapted YES test turned out to be a sensitive, robust and reliable method for testing samples with potential estrogenic effect. Our dual approach was successful in evaluating the estrogenic effect of the slurry samples.

Empirical delineation of the forest-steppe zone is supported by macroclimate

Eurasian forest-steppes form a 9000-km-long transitional zone between temperate forests and steppes, featuring a complex mosaic of herbaceous and woody habitats. Due to its heterogeneity regarding climate, topography and vegetation, the forest-steppe zone has been divided into several regions. However, a continental-scale empirical delineation of the zone and its regions was missing until recently. Finally, a map has been proposed by Erdős et al. based on floristic composition, physiognomy, relief, and climate. By conducting predictive distribution modeling and hierarchical clustering, here we compared this expert delineation with the solely macroclimate-based predictions and clusters. By assessing the discrepancies, we located the areas where refinement of the delineation or the inclusion of non-macroclimatic predictors should be considered. Also, we identified the most important variables for predicting the existence of the Eurasian forest-steppe zone and its regions. The predicted probability of forest-steppe occurrence showed a very high agreement with the expert delineation. The previous delineation of the West Siberia region was confirmed by our results, while that of the Inner Asia region was the one least confirmed by the macroclimate-based model predictions. The appropriate delineation of the Southeast Europe region from the East Europe region should be refined by further research, and splitting the Far East region into a southern and northern subregion should also be considered. The main macroclimatic predictors of the potential distribution of the zone and its regions were potential evapotranspiration (zone and regions), annual mean temperature (regions), precipitation of driest quarter (regions) and precipitation of warmest quarter (zone), but the importance of climatic variables for prediction showed great variability among the fitted predictive distribution models.

Assessing ecosystem condition at the national level in Hungary - indicators, approaches, challenges

The availability of robust and reliable spatial information on ecosystem condition is of increasing importance in informing conservation policy. Recent policy requirements have sparked a renewed interest in conceptual questions related to ecosystem condition and practical aspects like indicator selection, resulting in the emergence of conceptual frameworks, such as the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting - Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA-EA) and its Ecosystem Condition Typology (ECT). However, while such frameworks are essential to ensure that condition assessments are comprehensive and comparable, large-scale practical implementation often poses challenges that need to be tackled within stringent time and cost frames.

We present methods and experiences of the national-level mapping and assessment of ecosystem condition in Hungary. The assessments covered the whole country, including all major ecosystem types present. The methodology constitutes four approaches of quantifying and mapping condition, based on different interpretations of naturalness and hemeroby, complemented by two more using properties that ‘overarch’ ecosystem types, such as soil and landscape attributes. In order to highlight their strengths and drawbacks, as well as to help reconcile aspects of conceptual relevance with practical limitations, we retrospectively evaluated the six mapping approaches (and the resulting indicators) against the indicator selection criteria suggested in the SEEA-EA. The results show that the various approaches have different strengths and weaknesses and, thus, their joint application has a higher potential to address the specific challenges related to large-scale ecosystem condition mapping.

Controlling invasive alien shrub species, enhancing biodiversity and mitigating flood risk: A win-win-win situation in grazed floodplain plantations

The high nature conservation value of floodplain ecosystems is severely threatened by invasive alien species. Besides adversely affecting native biodiversity, these species also pose a major threat from a wider socio-ecological perspective (e.g. 'roughness' increases flood risk). Finding options to control dense shrub layers consisting of invasive alien species is therefore of high priority for multipurpose management. We studied cattle grazing impacts on the cover, composition and diversity of the herb and shrub layers in floodplain poplar plantations along the Tamiš river, Serbia. Non-grazed, moderately grazed, intensively grazed and resting place stands were sampled in five locations in three sampling points. Non-grazed stands had substantially higher cover of invasive alien shrub species (on average 65%) than moderately and intensively grazed stands, and resting places (5.17, 0.02 and 0.00%, respectively), but without considerable differences between the grazing intensity categories. The number of invasive alien species in the shrub layer decreased considerably from non-grazed to intensively grazed stands. Species composition in the herb layer changed from non-grazed to intensively grazed stands, while resting places differed substantially from the other categories. Total species richness, richness of native generalist herbaceous grassland species, and the cover of palatable grasses were the highest in moderately and intensively grazed stands. Our results suggest that cattle grazing in floodplains is effective at controlling invasive alien shrub species. Furthermore, continuous moderate or intensive grazing would contribute to multifunctional management of invaded floodplains by enhancing local biodiversity, reducing flood risk, and providing additional grazing areas for the local community.

Investigation of the vulnerability of a partly covered karst feature in Veszprém, Hungary

Karst aquifers represent the most important renewable sources of drinking water. Because anthropogenic influences threaten the integrity of karst aquifers, it is important to determine the soil erosion and karst denudation rates. In order to study the complex signs of degradation processes of the karst, a paleodoline (paleo-polje) was selected near to the county seat Veszprém, Hungary. It was found that gamma radiation measurements can be a useful tool to detect the level of soil erosion since the low gamma radiation indicates the surface proximity of the carbonate bedrock. The level of gamma radiation also predicts the potential agricultural usability of a site. Both the patterns of contamination and the erosion attack zone are strongly defined by the relief. The gullies and the deepest parts of the karstic landscape are the traps of organic materials and pollutants. The amounts of ⁴⁰K and its decay products originate from the covering sediment and negatively correlate with the soil depth. In the case of covered karsts, the measuring of the concentration of radionuclides and field gamma-ray dose measurement together can characterize the general horizontal and vertical trends of soil erosion, the potential land use, and the vegetation.

Beyond the Forest-Grassland Dichotomy: The Gradient-Like Organization of Habitats in Forest-Steppes

Featuring a transitional zone between closed forests and treeless steppes, forest-steppes cover vast areas, and have outstanding conservation importance. The components of this mosaic ecosystem can conveniently be classified into two basic types, forests and grasslands. However, this dichotomic classification may not fit reality as habitat organization can be much more complex. In this study, our aim was to find out if the main habitat types can be grouped into two distinct habitat categories (which would support the dichotomic description), or a different paradigm better fits this complex ecosystem. We selected six main habitats of sandy forest-steppes, and, using 176 relevés, we compared their vegetation based on species composition (NMDS ordination, number of common species of the studied habitats), relative ecological indicator values (mean indicators for temperature, soil moisture, and light availability), and functional species groups (life-form categories, geoelement types, and phytosociological preference groups). According to the species composition, we found a well-defined gradient, with the following habitat order: large forest patches, medium forest patches, small forest patches, north-facing edges, south-facing edges, and grasslands. A considerable number of species were shared among all habitats, while the number of species restricted to certain habitat types was also numerous, especially for north-facing edges. The total (i.e., pooled) number of species peaked near the middle of the gradient, in north-facing edges. The relative ecological indicator values and functional species groups showed mostly gradual changes from the large forest patches to the grasslands. Our results indicate that the widely used dichotomic categorization of forest-steppe habitats into forest and grassland patches is too simplistic, potentially resulting in a considerable loss of information. We suggest that forest-steppe vegetation better fits the gradient-based paradigm of landscape structure, which is able to reflect continuous variations.

The potential impact of climate change on the transmission risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Hungary

BACKGROUND

Impact of climate change on tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) prevalence in the tick-host enzootic cycle in a given region depends on how the region-specific climate change patterns influence tick population development processes and tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) transmission dynamics involving both systemic and co-feeding transmission routes. Predicting the transmission risk of TBEV in the enzootic cycle with projected climate conditions is essential for planning public health interventions including vaccination programs to mitigate the TBE incidence in the inhabitants and travelers. We have previously developed and validated a mathematical model for retroactive analysis of weather fluctuation on TBE prevalence in Hungary, and we aim to show in this research that this model provides an effective tool for projecting TBEV transmission risk in the enzootic cycle.

METHODS

Using the established model of TBEV transmission and the climate predictions of the Vas county in western Hungary in 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, we quantify the risk of TBEV transmission using a series of summative indices - the basic reproduction number, the duration of infestation, the stage-specific tick densities, and the accumulated (tick) infections due to co-feeding transmission. We also measure the significance of co-feeding transmission by observing the cumulative number of new transmissions through the non-systemic transmission route.

RESULTS

The transmission potential and the risk in the study site are expected to increase along with the increase of the temperature in 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. This increase will be facilitated by the expected extension of the tick questing season and the increase of the numbers of susceptible ticks (larval and nymphal) and the number of infected nymphal ticks co-feeding on the same hosts, leading to compounded increase of infections through the non-systemic transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

The developed mathematical model provides an effective tool for predicting TBE prevalence in the tick-host enzootic cycle, by integrating climate projection with emerging knowledge about the region-specific tick ecological and pathogen enzootic processes (through model parametrization fitting to historical data). Model projects increasing co-feeding transmission and prevalence of TBEV in a recognized TBE endemic region, so human risk of TBEV infection is likely increasing unless public health interventions are enhanced.

Assessing systemic and non-systemic transmission risk of tick-borne encephalitis virus in Hungary

Estimating the tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) infection risk under substantial uncertainties of the vector abundance, environmental condition and human-tick interaction is important for evidence-informed public health intervention strategies. Estimating this risk is computationally challenging since the data we observe, i.e., the human incidence of TBE, is only the final outcome of the tick-host transmission and tick-human contact processes. The challenge also increases since the complex TBE virus (TBEV) transmission cycle involves the non-systemic route of transmission between co-feeding ticks. Here, we describe the hidden Markov transition process, using a novel TBEV transmission-human case reporting cascade model that couples the susceptible-infected compartmental model describing the TBEV transmission dynamics among ticks, animal hosts and humans, with the stochastic observation process of human TBE reporting given infection. By fitting human incidence data in Hungary to the transmission model, we estimate key parameters relevant to the tick-host interaction and tick-human transmission. We then use the parametrized cascade model to assess the transmission potential of TBEV in the enzootic cycle with respect to the climate change, and to evaluate the contribution of non-systemic transmission. We show that the TBEV transmission potential in the enzootic cycle has been increasing along with the increased temperature though the TBE human incidence has dropped since 1990s, emphasizing the importance of persistent public health interventions. By demonstrating that non-systemic transmission pathway is a significant factor in the transmission of TBEV in Hungary, we conclude that the risk of TBE infection will be highly underestimated if the non-systemic transmission route is neglected in the risk assessment.

Impacts of urbanisation level and distance from potential natural mosquito breeding habitats on the abundance of canine dirofilariosis

Dirofilariosis is an emerging mosquito-borne veterinary and medical problem in the Northern hemisphere. The ecological investigation of 56 canine dirofilariosis cases in new endemic locations was performed in Szeged, Hungary. The aim was to analyse the influence of the spatial patterns of dog abundance and the potential mosquito breeding habitats on the spatial occurrence patterns of dirofilariosis in the city of Szeged. The limnoecological characterisation was based on the fluvial habitat classification of Amoros of natural water bodies; the built environment was evaluated using the UrbanisationScore urbanisation intensity measuring software. Dirofilaria immitis accounted for 51% and D. repens for 34.3% of the dirofilariosis cases, and in 20% of the cases only the Knott's test was positive. It was concluded that most of the cases were related to locations with a medium to high urbanisation index, although the proximity of mosquito-bearing waters also played an important role in the observed spatial infection patterns. We found that the distance from potential mosquito habitats and the urbanisation intensity determine the abundance of dirofilariosis in urban environments.

Potential urban distribution of Phlebotomus mascittii Grassi and Phlebotomus neglectus Tonn. (Diptera: Psychodidae) in 2021-50 in Budapest, Hungary

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES

In the Carpathian Basin, the most northern populations of Phlebotomus (sandfly) species, including the two studied species (Phlebotomus mascittii and Phlebotomus neglectus), are reported from central Hungary. The most important limiting factor of the distribution of Phlebotomus species in the region is the annual minimum temperature which may be positively affected by the urban heat island and the climate change in the future. The main objective of the study is to prove and predict the overwintering possibility of Phlebotomus species in urban environment.

METHODS

Based on the latest reports of occurrence of sandfly species, climate envelope model was built for the period 1961-90 and 2025-50 to project the potential urban distribution of the species. The climatic data were obtained from RegCM regional climate model and MODIS satellite images.

RESULTS

The recent occurrence of the species in central Hungary indicates that Phlebotomus species can overwinter in non-heated shelters in built environment.

INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION

Jointly heat island and the increase of minimum temperature in winter due to climate change seem to be able to provide suitable environment for the studied species in urban areas to a great extent.

The paradox of the binomial Ixodes ricinus activity and the observed unimodal Lyme borreliosis season in Hungary

The change of ambient temperature plays a key role in determining the run of the annual Lyme season. Our aim was to explain the apparent contradiction between the annual unimodal Lyme borreliosis incidence and the bimodal Ixodes ricinus tick activity run--both observed in Hungary--by distinguishing the temperature-dependent seasonal human and tick activity, the temperature-independent factors, and the multiplicative effect of human outdoor activity in summer holiday, using data from Hungary in the period of 1998-2012. This separation was verified by modeling the Lyme incidence based on the separated factors, and comparing the run of the observed and modeled incidence. We demonstrated the bimodality of tick season by using the originally unimodal Lyme incidence data. To model the outdoor human activity, the amount of camping guest nights was used, which showed an irregular run from mid-June to September. The human outdoor activity showed a similar exponential correlation with ambient temperature to that what the relative incidence did. It was proved that summer holiday has great influence on Lyme incidence.