Uncertainty in phosphorus fluxes and budgets across the U.S. long-term agroecosystem research network

Phosphorus (P) budgets can be useful tools for understanding nutrient cycling and quantifying the effectiveness of nutrient management planning and policies; however, uncertainties in agricultural nutrient budgets are not often quantitatively assessed. The objective of this study was to evaluate uncertainty in P fluxes (fertilizer/manure application, atmospheric deposition, irrigation, crop removal, surface runoff, leachate) and the propagation of these uncertainties to annual P budgets. Data from 56 cropping systems in the P-FLUX database, which spans diverse rotations and landscapes across the U.S. and Canada, were evaluated. Results showed that across cropping systems, average annual P budget was 22.4 kg P ha^-1 (range = -32.7 to 340.6 kg P ha^-1 ), with an average uncertainty of 13.1 kg P ha^-1 (range = 1.0 to 87.1 kg P ha^-1 ). Fertilizer/manure application and crop removal were the largest P fluxes across cropping systems and, as a result, accounted for the largest fraction of uncertainty in annual budgets (61 and 37%, respectively). Remaining fluxes individually accounted for <2% of the budget uncertainty. Uncertainties were large enough that determining whether P was increasing, decreasing, or not changing was inconclusive in 39% of the budgets evaluated. Findings indicate that more careful and/or direct measurements of inputs, outputs, and stocks are needed. Recommendations for minimizing uncertainty in P budgets based on the results of the study were developed. Quantifying, communicating, and constraining uncertainty in budgets among production systems and multiple geographies is critical for engaging stakeholders, developing local and national strategies for P reduction, and informing policy. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

P-FLUX: A phosphorus budget dataset spanning diverse agricultural production systems in the United States and Canada

Quantifying spatial and temporal fluxes of phosphorus (P) within and among agricultural production systems is critical for sustaining agricultural production while minimizing environmental impacts. To better understand P fluxes in agricultural landscapes, P-FLUX, a detailed and harmonized dataset of P inputs, outputs, and budgets, as well as estimated uncertainties for each P flux and budget, was developed. Data were collected from 24 research sites and 61 production systems through the Long-term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network and partner organizations spanning 22 U.S. states and 2 Canadian provinces. The objectives of this paper are to (a) present and provide a description of the P-FLUX dataset, (b) provide summary analyses of the agricultural production systems included in the dataset and the variability in P inputs and outputs across systems, and (c) provide details for accessing the dataset, dataset limitations, and an example of future use. P-FLUX includes information on select site characteristics (area, soil series), crop rotation, P inputs (P application rate, source, timing, placement, P in irrigation water, atmospheric deposition), P outputs (crop removal, hydrologic losses), P budgets (agronomic budget, overall budget), uncertainties associated with each flux and budget, and data sources. Phosphorus fluxes and budgets vary across agricultural production systems and are useful resources to improve P use efficiency and develop management strategies to mitigate environmental impacts of agricultural systems. P-FLUX is available for download through the USDA Ag Data Commons (https://doi.org/10.15482/USDA.ADC/1523365).