Estimating progress towards meeting women's contraceptive needs in 185 countries: A Bayesian hierarchical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Expanding access to contraception and ensuring that need for family planning is satisfied are essential for achieving universal access to reproductive healthcare services, as called for in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Monitoring progress towards these outcomes is well established for women of reproductive age (15-49 years) who are married or in a union (MWRA). For those who are not, limited data and variability in data sources and indicator definitions make monitoring challenging. To our knowledge, this study is the first to provide data and harmonised estimates that enable monitoring for all women of reproductive age (15-49 years) (WRA), including unmarried women (UWRA). We seek to quantify the gaps that remain in meeting family-planning needs among all WRA.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In a systematic analysis, we compiled a comprehensive dataset of family-planning indicators among WRA from 1,247 nationally representative surveys. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model with country-specific time trends to estimate these indicators, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), for 185 countries. We produced estimates from 1990 to 2019 and projections from 2019 to 2030 of contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning among MWRA, UWRA, and all WRA, taking into account the changing proportions that were married or in a union. The model accounted for differences in the prevalence of sexual activity among UWRA across countries. Among 1.9 billion WRA in 2019, 1.11 billion (95% UI 1.07-1.16) have need for family planning; of those, 842 million (95% UI 800-893) use modern contraception, and 270 million (95% UI 246-301) have unmet need for modern methods. Globally, UWRA represented 15.7% (95% UI 13.4%-19.4%) of all modern contraceptive users and 16.0% (95% UI 12.9%-22.1%) of women with unmet need for modern methods in 2019. The proportion of the need for family planning satisfied by modern methods, Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) indicator 3.7.1, was 75.7% (95% UI 73.2%-78.0%) globally, yet less than half of the need for family planning was met in Middle and Western Africa. Projections to 2030 indicate an increase in the number of women with need for family planning to 1.19 billion (95% UI 1.13-1.26) and in the number of women using modern contraception to 918 million (95% UI 840-1,001). The main limitations of the study are as follows: (i) the uncertainty surrounding estimates for countries with little or no data is large; and (ii) although some adjustments were made, underreporting of contraceptive use and needs is likely, especially among UWRA.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed that large gaps remain in meeting family-planning needs. The projected increase in the number of women with need for family planning will create challenges to expand family-planning services fast enough to fulfil the growing need. Monitoring of family-planning indicators for all women, not just MWRA, is essential for accurately monitoring progress towards universal access to sexual and reproductive healthcare services-including family planning-by 2030 in the SDG era with its emphasis on 'leaving no one behind.'

Postpartum uptake of contraception in rural northern Malawi: A prospective study

OBJECTIVES

Cross-sectional estimates of contraceptive use do not provide understanding of time to postpartum uptake. This paper uses a range of Malawian data sources: a prospective study to explore time to uptake of contraception and a cross-sectional survey to assess whether sexually active postpartum women whose fecundity has returned use contraception, and whether abstaining/amenorrheic women report using contraception.

STUDY DESIGN

A demographic surveillance site (DSS) in Malawi was used to identify 7393 women aged 15-49 years eligible for a 1-year prospective study of contraception using provider-recorded data on patient-held records (2012-2013). This provided a reliable record of time to uptake of postpartum contraception. The average timing of resumption of sexual activities after postpartum abstinence and return of menses was estimated from a population-based sexual behaviour survey in the DSS (2010-2011).

RESULTS

Of 4678 women recruited to the prospective contraception study, 442 delivered an infant during the observation period. Of these, 28.4% used modern contraception within 6 months of delivery. However, at 6-9 months after delivery, only 28.0% women had started menstruation and resumed sexual activities; of these, 77.6% used contraception. Amongst abstaining/amenorrheic women, a quarter reported contraceptive use.

CONCLUSIONS

The low uptake of postpartum contraception is likely due to many women abstaining and/or experiencing amenorrhea. Self-reports of contraceptive use amongst abstaining/amenorrheic women bring into question the quality of cross-sectional surveys and demonstrate that contraceptive use by women at low risk of pregnancy could contribute to the Malawi paradox of high contraceptive use and high fertility. Given relatively low risk of pregnancy in the postpartum period in this context, a focus on long-acting/permanent methods may be more effective to avert unintended pregnancies.

IMPLICATIONS

There has been increasing interest in the utility of postpartum contraceptive programmes to assist women to space births. Our findings suggest that, although uptake of contraception is low, this is partly due to postpartum abstinence and amenorrhea. Provision of long-acting/permanent methods will be more effective for women after delivery.

HIV policy and implementation: a national policy review and an implementation case study of a rural area of northern Malawi

Malawi is a global leader in the design and implementation of progressive HIV policies. However, there continues to be substantial attrition of people living with HIV across the “cascade” of HIV services from diagnosis to treatment, and program outcomes could improve further. Ability to successfully implement national HIV policy, especially in rural areas, may have an impact on consistency of service uptake. We reviewed Malawian policies and guidelines published between 2003 and 2013 relating to accessibility of adult HIV testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission and HIV care and treatment services using a policy extraction tool, with gaps completed through key informant interviews. A health facility survey was conducted in six facilities serving the population of a demographic surveillance site in rural northern Malawi to investigate service-level policy implementation. Survey data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Policy implementation was assessed by comparing policy content and facility practice using pre-defined indicators covering service access: quality of care, service coordination and patient tracking, patient support, and medical management. ART was rolled out in Malawi in 2004 and became available in the study area in 2005. In most areas, practices in the surveyed health facilities complied with or exceeded national policy, including those designed to promote rapid initiation onto treatment, such as free services and task-shifting for treatment initiation. However, policy and/or practice were/was lacking in certain areas, in particular those strategies to promote retention in HIV care (e.g., adherence monitoring and home-based care). In some instances, though, facilities implemented alternative progressive practices aimed at improving quality of care and encouraging adherence. While Malawi has formulated a range of progressive policies aiming to promote rapid initiation onto ART, increased investment in policy implementation strategies and quality service delivery, in particular to promote long-term retention on treatment may improve outcomes further.