Predictors of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Stroke Attributed to Large- or Small-Vessel Disease: A Prespecified Secondary Analysis of the STROKE AF Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

The Stroke of Known Cause and Underlying Atrial Fibrillation (STROKE AF) trial found that approximately 1 in 8 patients with recent ischemic stroke attributed to large- or small-vessel disease had poststroke atrial fibrillation (AF) detected by an insertable cardiac monitor (ICM) at 12 months. Identifying predictors of AF could be useful when considering an ICM in routine poststroke clinical care.

Objective

To determine the association between commonly assessed risk factors and poststroke detection of new AF in the STROKE AF cohort monitored by ICM.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a prespecified analysis of a randomized (1:1) clinical trial that enrolled patients between April 1, 2016, and July 12, 2019, with primary follow-up through 2020 and mean (SD) duration of 11.0 (3.0) months. Eligible patients were selected from 33 clinical research sites in the US. Patients had an index stroke attributed to large- or small-vessel disease and were 60 years or older or aged 50 to 59 years with at least 1 additional stroke risk factor. A total of 496 patients were enrolled, and 492 were randomly assigned to study groups (3 did not meet inclusion criteria, and 1 withdrew consent). Patients in the ICM group had the index stroke within 10 days before insertion. Data were analyzed from October 8, 2021, to January 28, 2022.

Interventions

ICM monitoring vs site-specific usual care (short-duration external cardiac monitoring).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The ICM device automatically detects AF episodes 2 or more minutes in length; episodes were adjudicated by an expert committee. Cox regression multivariable modeling included all parameters identified in the univariate analysis having P values <.10. AF detection rates were calculated using Kaplan-Meier survival estimates.

Results

The analysis included the 242 participants randomly assigned to the ICM group in the STROKE AF study. Among 242 patients monitored with ICM, 27 developed AF (mean [SD] age, 66.6 [9.3] years; 144 men [60.0%]; 96 [40.0%] women). Two patients had missing baseline data and exited the study early. Univariate predictors of AF detection included age (per 1-year increments: hazard ratio [HR], 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.09; P = .02), CHA2DS2-VASc score (per point: HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.15-2.06; P = .004), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR, 2.49; 95% CI, 0.86-7.20; P = .09), congestive heart failure (CHF; with preserved or reduced ejection fraction: HR, 6.64; 95% CI, 2.29-19.24; P < .001), left atrial enlargement (LAE; HR, 3.63; 95% CI, 1.55-8.47; P = .003), QRS duration (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.00-1.04; P = .04), and kidney dysfunction (HR, 3.58; 95% CI, 1.35-9.46; P = .01). In multivariable modeling (n = 197), only CHF (HR, 5.06; 95% CI, 1.45-17.64; P = .05) and LAE (HR, 3.32; 1.34-8.19; P = .009) remained significant predictors of AF. At 12 months, patients with CHF and/or LAE (40 of 142 patients) had an AF detection rate of 23.4% vs 5.0% for patients with neither (HR, 5.1; 95% CI, 2.0-12.8; P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

Among patients with ischemic stroke attributed to large- or small-vessel disease, CHF and LAE were associated with a significantly increased risk of poststroke AF detection. These patients may benefit most from the use of ICMs as part of a secondary stroke prevention strategy. However, the study was not powered for clinical predictors of AF, and therefore, other clinical characteristics may not have reached statistical significance.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02700945.

Stochastic termination of spiral wave dynamics in cardiac tissue

Rotating spiral waves are self-organized features in spatially extended excitable media and may play an important role in cardiac arrhythmias including atrial fibrillation (AF). In homogeneous media, spiral wave dynamics are perpetuated through spiral wave breakup, leading to the continuous birth and death of spiral waves, but have a finite probability of termination. In non-homogeneous media, however, heterogeneities can act as anchoring sources that result in sustained spiral wave activity. It is thus unclear how and if AF may terminate following the removal of putative spiral wave sources in patients. Here, we address this question using computer simulations in which a stable spiral wave is trapped by an heterogeneity and is surrounded by spiral wave breakup. We show that, following ablation of spatial heterogeneity to render that region of the medium unexcitable, termination of spiral wave dynamics is stochastic and Poisson-distributed. Furthermore, we show that the dynamics can be accurately described by a master equation using birth and death rates. To validate these predictions in vivo, we mapped spiral wave activity in patients with AF and targeted the locations of spiral wave sources using radiofrequency ablation. Targeted ablation was indeed able to terminate AF, but only after a variable delay of up to several minutes. Furthermore, and consistent with numerical simulations, termination was not accompanied by gradual temporal or spatial organization. Our results suggest that spiral wave sources and tissue heterogeneities play a critical role in the maintenance of AF and that the removal of sources results in spiral wave dynamics with a finite termination time, which could have important clinical implications.

Repeat ablation and hospitalization following cryoballoon ablation of atrial fibrillation at a single tertiary medical center

Cryoablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) has rapidly become a mainstream treatment for AF. In this report, 163 patients who had undergone a cryoablation procedure at one clinical center were contacted by telephone 33.1 ± 3.3 months after the procedure. All patients had received cryoablation of the pulmonary vein ostia, although concomitant procedures were performed at the same time in over 50% of the patients, including radiofrequency and/or cryoablation of other areas of the left atrium. Freedom from a repeat ablation procedure was 87%, while freedom from recurrent hospitalization for AF was 89%, as compared to previous reports of 65%. Of the 13 patients who had a repeat ablation procedure, only one was found to have a reconnection of pulmonary veins, while 4 were found to have atrial flutter. Cryoablation for AF produces a durable result in most patients out to 3 years with better outcomes than previously reported.

Slow Pathway Ablation Decreases Vulnerability to Pacing-Induced Atrial Fibrillation: Possible Role of Vagal Denervation

BACKGROUND

Studies indicate that success of radiofrequency (RF) ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) may be in part due to vagal denervation. RFAof supraventricular tachycardia (SVT) has been associated with vagal denervation. The effects of slow pathway (SP) ablation on AF inducibility have not been studied.

OBJECTIVE

To test the hypothesis that SP ablation renders AF less inducible.

METHODS

Consecutive patients referred for SVT were studied. After atrioventricular nodal reentrant tachycardia (AVNRT) was confirmed they underwent induction of AF. After SP ablation AF induction was reattempted. Vulnerability to AF was reassessed.

RESULTS

Twenty-four patients were enrolled; eight were not inducible for AF in the preablative state. Mean CLof the AVNRT was 340 +/- 16 ms. The average RF ablation time was 131 +/- 42 seconds. Presence of junctional rhythm was required. Of the 16 with inducible AF two patients had AF induced during routine invasive electrophysiology study. None of these had inducible AF after SP ablation. Fourteen of 16 patients required specific AF induction. Ten of these were noninducible after SP ablation; two were inducible after SP ablation but with a more aggressive pacing protocol (P < 0.03 compared to preablation) and two had no change in AF vulnerability. Seven of the eight noninducible patients remained noninducible for AF post SP ablation. In the 12 patients who were inducible prior but noninducible after ablation the mean atrial effective refractory period (AERP) increased for both BCL at 400 and 600 ms (400/216 +/- 8 ms preablation vs 400/248 +/- 12 ms postablation, P < 0.03; 600/228 +/- 8 ms preablation vs 600/259 +/- 6 ms postablation, P < 0.04). There were no significant changes in AERP of patients who remained inducible or who were noninducible before ablation. The average ablation time for patients who became noninducible after ablation was significantly higher than those who had no change in inducibility or remained inducible but at a more aggressive pacing threshold (157 +/- 24 seconds vs 35 +/- 5 seconds; P < 0.005).

CONCLUSION

SP ablation acutely decreases vulnerability to pacing-induced AF in patients with AVNRT. This may reflect the effect of ablation on atrial vagal tone.