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Fay R, Hamel S, van de Pol M, Gaillard JM, Yoccoz NG, Acker P, Authier M, Larue B, Le Coeur C, Macdonald KR, Nicol-Harper A, Barbraud C, Bonenfant C, Van Vuren DH, Cam E, Delord K, Gamelon M, Moiron M, Pelletier F, Rotella J, Teplitsky C, Visser ME, Wells CP, Wheelwright NT, Jenouvrier S, Saether BE. Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:1640-1654. [PMID: 35610546 PMCID: PMC9323452 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2022] [Revised: 02/23/2022] [Accepted: 04/12/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species’ life histories. Here, we use long‐term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow‐fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long‐run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rémi Fay
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Sandra Hamel
- Département de biologie, Université Laval, Québec City, QC, Canada
| | - Martijn van de Pol
- College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.,Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Jean-Michel Gaillard
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, CNRS, Unité Mixte de Recherche (UMR) 5558, Université Lyon 1, Université de Lyon, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Nigel G Yoccoz
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Paul Acker
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Matthieu Authier
- Observatoire PELAGIS, UMS-CNRS 3462, Université de la Rochelle, La Rochelle, France
| | - Benjamin Larue
- Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada
| | - Christie Le Coeur
- Department of Biosciences, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - Alex Nicol-Harper
- School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, Southampton, UK.,Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Christophe Barbraud
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, LEMAR, UMR 7372, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Villiers en Bois, France
| | - Christophe Bonenfant
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, CNRS, Unité Mixte de Recherche (UMR) 5558, Université Lyon 1, Université de Lyon, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Dirk H Van Vuren
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, California, USA
| | - Emmanuelle Cam
- LEMAR, CNRS, IRD, Ifremer, Université de Bretagne Occidentale, Plouzané, France
| | - Karine Delord
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, LEMAR, UMR 7372, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Villiers en Bois, France
| | - Marlène Gamelon
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.,Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, CNRS, Unité Mixte de Recherche (UMR) 5558, Université Lyon 1, Université de Lyon, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Maria Moiron
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.,Institute of Avian Research, Wilhelmshaven, Germany
| | - Fanie Pelletier
- Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada
| | - Jay Rotella
- Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA
| | | | - Marcel E Visser
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Caitlin P Wells
- Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology Department, Colorado State University, Colorado, USA
| | | | - Stéphanie Jenouvrier
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA.,Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, LEMAR, UMR 7372, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Villiers en Bois, France
| | - Bernt-Erik Saether
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
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