Using ecological niche modelling to prioritise areas for conservation of the critically endangered Buffy-Headed marmoset (Callithrix flaviceps)

Endemic to the Atlantic Forest in Southeastern Brazil, the critically endangered Buffy-Headed marmoset (Callithrix flaviceps) is lacking the required attention for effective conservation. We modelled its ecological niche with the main objectives of (1) defining suitable habitat and (2) prioritising areas for conservation and/or restoration. The current geographical range of Callithrix flaviceps in the Atlantic Forest of Southeast Brazil. We used Ensemble Species Distribution Modelling to define current habitat suitability considering four climate and two landscape variables. To identify areas to prioritise for conservation and/or restoration, we predicted future habitat suitability considering the intermediate (RCP4.5) and extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. Among the variables included to predict current species distribution, tree canopy cover, precipitation seasonality and temperature seasonality were the most important whereas digital elevation model and precipitation during the wettest month were the least important. Callithrix flaviceps was most likely to occur in areas with tree canopy cover >80%, high precipitation seasonality and temperature seasonality between 21 and 23°C. From the future suitability prediction maps, the Caparaó National Park stands out as a likely key area for the preservation of the species. Furthermore, high climatic suitability but low landscape suitability suggests that habitat restoration in 'Serra das Torres' (South of the current distribution area) might be a useful strategy. However, creating ecological corridors on the west side of Caparaó would be necessary to improve connectivity. More surveys within and beyond the current geographical range are required to define more precisely the distribution of the species. Our results support the notion that seasonality is important for Callithrix flaviceps and that as a montane species, it prefers colder environments and higher altitudes. Within both climate change scenarios, Caparaó National Park was predicted to be highly suitable, with a high probability of presence.

A Standardized Method for Experimental Human Approach Trials on Wild Wolves

As wolves recolonize areas of Europe ranging from moderate to high anthropogenic impact, fear of wolves is a recurring source of conflict. Shared tools for evaluating wolf responses to humans, and comparing such responses across their range, can be valuable. Experiments in which humans approach wild wolves can increase our understanding of how wolves respond to humans, facilitating human-wolf coexistence. We have developed the first standardized protocol for evaluating wolf responses to approaching humans using high-resolution GPS data, and tested it on wild wolves. We present a field protocol for experimentally approaching GPS-collared wolves, a descriptive comparison of two statistical methods for detecting a measurable flight response, a tutorial for identifying wolf flight initiation and resettling positions, and an evaluation of the method when reducing GPS positioning frequency. The field protocol, a data collection form, and the tutorial with R code for extracting flight parameters are provided. This protocol will facilitate studies of wolf responses to approaching humans, applicable at a local, national, and international level. Data compiled in a standardized way from multiple study areas can be used to quantify the variation in wolf responses to humans within and between populations, and in relation to predictors such as social status, landscape factors, or human population density, and to establish a baseline distribution of wolf response patterns given a number of known predictors. The variation in wolf responses can be used to assess the degree to which results can be generalized to areas where GPS studies are not feasible, e.g., for predicting the range of likely wolf behaviors, assessing the likelihood of wolf-human encounters, and complementing existing tools for evaluating reports of bold wolves. Showing how wolves respond to human encounters should help demystify the behavior of wild wolves toward humans in their shared habitat.

Wolf Responses to Experimental Human Approaches Using High-Resolution Positioning Data

Humans pose a major mortality risk to wolves. Hence, similar to how prey respond to predators, wolves can be expected to show anti-predator responses to humans. When exposed to a threat, animals may show a fight, flight, freeze or hide response. The type of response and the circumstances (e.g., distance and speed) at which the animal flees are useful parameters to describe the responses of wild animals to approaching humans. Increasing knowledge about behavioral responses of wolves toward humans might improve appropriate management and decrease conflicts related to fear of wolves. We did a pilot study by conducting 21 approach trials on seven GPS-collared wolves in four territories to investigate their responses to experimental human approaches. We found that wolves predominantly showed a flight response (N = 18), in a few cases the wolf did not flee (N = 3), but no wolves were seen or heard during trials. When wolves were downwind of the observer the flight initiation distance was significantly larger than when upwind, consistent with the hypothesis that conditions facilitating early detection would result in an earlier flight. Our hypothesis that early detection would result in less intense flights was not supported, as we found no correlation between flight initiation distances and speed, distance or straightness of the flight. Wolves in more concealed habitat had a shorter flight initiation distance or did not flee at all, suggesting that perceived risk might have been affected by horizontal visibility. Contrary to our expectation, resettling positions were less concealed (larger horizontal visibility) than the wolves’ initial site. Although our small number of study animals and trials does not allow for generalizations, this pilot study illustrates how standardized human approach trials with high-resolution GPS-data can be used to describe wolf responses at a local scale. In continuation, this method can be applied at larger spatial scales to compare wolf flight responses within and between populations and across anthropogenic gradients, thus increasing the knowledge of wolf behavior toward humans, and potentially improving coexistence with wolves across their range.

Impact of a recolonizing, cross-border carnivore population on ungulate harvest in Scandinavia

Predation from large carnivores and human harvest are the two main mortality factors affecting the dynamics of many ungulate populations. We examined long-term moose (Alces alces) harvest data from two countries that share cross-border populations of wolves (Canis lupus) and their main prey moose. We tested how a spatial gradient of increasing wolf territory density affected moose harvest density and age and sex composition of the harvested animals (n = 549,310), along a latitudinal gradient during 1995–2017. In areas containing average-sized wolf territories, harvest density was on average 37% (Norway) and 51% (Sweden) lower than in areas without wolves. In Sweden, calves made up a higher proportion of the moose harvest than in Norway, and this proportion was reduced with increased wolf territory density, while it increased in Norway. The proportion of females in the adult harvest was more strongly reduced in Sweden than in Norway as a response to increased wolf territory density. Moose management in both countries performed actions aimed to increase productivity in the moose population, in order to compensate for the increased mortality caused by wolves. These management actions are empirical examples of an adaptive management in response to the return of large carnivores.

Analysis of the political process of Denmark’s hospital reform

Background

The German hospital landscape is characterized by a decentralization of the range of services provided, low levels of specialization and significant overcapacity. This leads to over-, under- and misuse of hospital care, which is not least evidenced by wide variation in quality in the system. In Denmark, since the early 2000s, a continuous restructuring of the hospital landscape has been undertaken. Among other things, hospitals have been rebuilt, many smaller hospitals have closed and the number of emergency rooms has been halved. The aim of the project K:IDD (Hospital: Impulses for Germany from Denmark) is to examine the conditions that have to be created to be able to incorporate parts of the Danish reform into German hospital care, and to leverage these for improved patient care. To learn from the case of Denmark, it is important to understand which circumstances facilitated the reform.

Methods

To analyse the political process behind Denmark's hospital reform using two different sources will be used: (1) A qualitative content analysis of 17 semi-structured expert interviews with political scientists, journalists, politicians, among others and (2) an analysis of the literature about the reform. Kingdon's (1994) multiple stream framework as well as Tsebelis' (1995) Veto-player theory will be used.

Results

The key success factors encouraging to the reform will be presented. In addition potential Veto-Players and institutional settings enabling or hindering the reform will be described. The final assessment of the policy process and comparison to the German context will lead to implementation guidance and recommendations for the German context. Further, alternative courses of action will be presented.

Conclusions

The findings from this analysis can provide important and practical recommendations for the necessary reform of the hospital landscape in Germany, thereby improving hospital care in the long term.

Key messages

The hospital reform in Denmark was possible due to the interaction of different social currents, which ultimately opened a window of opportunity. This could be used as role model for decision-makers, professionals and researchers strive for change in other countries.

Den site selection by male brown bears at the population's expansion front

Brown bears (Ursus arctos) spend about half of the year in winter dens. In order to preserve energy, bears may select denning locations that minimize temperature loss and human disturbance. In expanding animal populations, demographic structure and individual behavior at the expansion front can differ from core areas. We conducted a non-invasive study of male brown bear den sites at the male-biased, low-density western expansion front of the Scandinavian brown bear population, comparing den locations to the available habitat. Compared to the higher-density population core in which intraspecific avoidance may affect den site selection of subordinate bears, we expected resource competition in the periphery to be low, and all bears to be able to select optimal den sites. In addition, bears in the periphery had access to free-ranging domestic sheep during summer. We found that males in the periphery denned on high-elevation slopes, probably providing good drainage, longer periods of consistent, insulating snow cover and fewer melting-freezing events. Forests were the principal denning habitat and no dens were found in alpine areas. The Scandinavian brown bears have a history of intense harvest, including culling at the den. This may have exerted a selection pressure to avoid denning in open alpine habitat which compared to forests provide little cover. The bears denned away from main roads and in steep, rugged terrain, probably limiting human access. The odds for finding a bear den decreased with increasing distance to the population core where females could be found. Previous studies have documented directed movement of male brown bears from the male-biased population periphery toward the core areas during the mating season. In this way, denning males may be trading off between low resource competition and access to sheep in the low-density periphery, and mating opportunities in the higher-density population core.

DNA synthesis in HeLa cells and isolated nuclei after treatment with an inhibitor of spermidine synthesis, methyl glyoxal bis(guanylhydrazone)

Addition of methyl glyoxal bis(guanylhydrazone) to HeLa S3 suspension cultures resulted in increased putrescine levels and decreased spermidine and spermine levels preceding a drop in incorporation of [3H]thymidine, [3H]uridine and [14C]leucine into macromolecules. When putrescine, spermidine, spermine or cadaverine was added simultaneously with methyl glyoxal bis(guanylhydrazone), the drug had no detectable effect on the synthesis of macromolecules. In nuclei isolated from cells treated with methyl glyoxal bis(guanylhydrazone) the reduction in the rate of DNA synthesis was equal to the reduction of [3H]thymidine incorporation in the corresponding whole cells. The capability of the nuclei to synthesize DNA could not be restored by adding spermidine or spermine to the system in vitro. The rate of DNA chain elongation was only reduced slightly by methyl glyoxal bis(guanylhydrazone) indicating that decreased levels of spermidine and spermine lead to a decrease in the number of replication units active in DNA synthesis within each cell.