Bellwethers of change: population modelling of North Pacific humpback whales from 2002 through 2021 reveals shift from recovery to climate response

For the 40 years after the end of commercial whaling in 1976, humpback whale populations in the North Pacific Ocean exhibited a prolonged period of recovery. Using mark-recapture methods on the largest individual photo-identification dataset ever assembled for a cetacean, we estimated annual ocean-basin-wide abundance for the species from 2002 through 2021. Trends in annual estimates describe strong post-whaling era population recovery from 16 875 (± 5955) in 2002 to a peak abundance estimate of 33 488 (± 4455) in 2012. An apparent 20% decline from 2012 to 2021, 33 488 (± 4455) to 26 662 (± 4192), suggests the population abruptly reached carrying capacity due to loss of prey resources. This was particularly evident for humpback whales wintering in Hawai'i, where, by 2021, estimated abundance had declined by 34% from a peak in 2013, down to abundance levels previously seen in 2006, and contrasted to an absence of decline in Mainland Mexico breeding humpbacks. The strongest marine heatwave recorded globally to date during the 2014-2016 period appeared to have altered the course of species recovery, with enduring effects. Extending this time series will allow humpback whales to serve as an indicator species for the ecosystem in the face of a changing climate.

A collaborative and near-comprehensive North Pacific humpback whale photo-ID dataset

We present an ocean-basin-scale dataset that includes tail fluke photographic identification (photo-ID) and encounter data for most living individual humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the North Pacific Ocean. The dataset was built through a broad collaboration combining 39 separate curated photo-ID catalogs, supplemented with community science data. Data from throughout the North Pacific were aggregated into 13 regions, including six breeding regions, six feeding regions, and one migratory corridor. All images were compared with minimal pre-processing using a recently developed image recognition algorithm based on machine learning through artificial intelligence; this system is capable of rapidly detecting matches between individuals with an estimated 97-99% accuracy. For the 2001-2021 study period, a total of 27,956 unique individuals were documented in 157,350 encounters. Each individual was encountered, on average, in 5.6 sampling periods (i.e., breeding and feeding seasons), with an annual average of 87% of whales encountered in more than one season. The combined dataset and image recognition tool represents a living and accessible resource for collaborative, basin-wide studies of a keystone marine mammal in a time of rapid ecological change.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetics and the dermal absorption of 2-butoxyethanol vapor by humans

It has generally been assumed that the skin contributes only minor amounts to the total uptake of solvent vapors, relative to the respiratory tract. Contrary to this assumption, the widely used glycol ether solvent, 2-butoxyethanol (BE), has been reported to be more effectively absorbed through the skin (75% of the total uptake) than through the lungs of humans (Johanson and Boman, 1991, Br. J. Ind. Med. 48, 788). The possibility that the finger prick blood sampling technique used in the Johanson and Boman study was confounded by locally high concentrations of BE at the site of absorption was suggested using a previously developed PBPK model (Corley et al., 1994, Toxicol. Appl. Pharmacol. 129, 61). The current study was conducted to verify the PBPK analysis and to determine whether or not the skin was the major site for absorption of BE vapor by exposing one arm from each of six human volunteers to 50 ppm 13C2-BE vapor for 2 hr. To evaluate the potential consequences of blood sampling techniques, samples were taken from both the unexposed arm (catheter; during and after exposure) and the exposed arm (finger prick; end of the exposure only) for analysis of both BE and its major metabolite, butoxyacetic acid (BAA). Butoxyacetic acid is responsible for the hemolysis observed in toxicity studies with laboratory animals. Humans, however, are significantly less sensitive to this effect. The concentration of BE in the finger prick blood samples averaged 1500 times higher than the corresponding concentration in venous blood sampled from a catheter installed in the unexposed arm at the end of the exposure. Blood BAA levels were generally within a factor of 4 of each other for the two techniques and, therefore, was considered a better indicator of systemic absorption. Urine was collected for 24 hr and analyzed for the following metabolites found in rat metabolism studies: free and conjugated BE, BAA, ethylene glycol (EG), and glycolic acid (GA), with only BAA detected in the human urine. More importantly, urinary BAA was found to be extensively conjugated ( approximately 67%) with glutamine, confirming recent reports. These results, coupled with PBPK modeling of worst-case exposure scenarios (no clothing, 100% of the body was exposed), demonstrated that no more than 15-27% (low-to-high relative temperatures and humidities), not 75%, of the total uptake of BE could be attributed to the skin of humans during simulated 8-hr exposures to the ACGIH TLV concentration of 25 ppm. Even less of the total uptake was attributed to the skin during simulations of exercise with whole-body exposures (5-9%) or by more realistic exposures of only the arms and head (1-8%). As a result, humans are unlikely to reach hemolytic concentrations of the metabolite BAA in blood following vapor exposures to BE.