The incidence of a first major osteoporotic fracture in Iceland and implications for FRAX

SUMMARY

Based on an extensive cohort study over 25 years, the present study supports the assumption that major osteoporotic fractures can be reasonably predicted from hip fracture rates.

INTRODUCTION

The construct for FRAX models depends on algorithms to adjust for double counting of fracture outcomes in some models and in others, to estimate the incidence of a major fracture from hip fracture rates. The aim of the present study was to test the validity of these algorithms in a large prospective cohort.

METHODS

The incidence of hip, clinical spine, distal forearm, and humerus fracture was determined in the prospective and ongoing population-based Reykjavik Study with follow up of 257,001 person-years. The incidence of a first major fracture was compared with the correction factors used in FRAX to adjust the incidence of several fracture outcomes for double counting. In addition, the incidence of a major osteoporotic fracture estimated from the Icelandic hip fracture rates was compared with the Malmo ratios used in FRAX.

RESULTS

The adjustments necessary to account for multiple fracture outcomes were similar to those previously derived from Sweden. Additionally, incidence of a first major osteoporotic fracture was similar to that derived for FRAX models.

CONCLUSION

The findings of the present study support the algorithms used in FRAX to estimate the incidence of a first major fracture and the predictive value of hip fracture for other major fractures.

Epidemiology of fractures in Iceland and secular trends in major osteoporotic fractures 1989-2008

The incidence of the most common fracture types in Iceland is reported based on individual data from the Reykjavik Study 1967-2008. Time trend is reported for the major osteoporotic fractures (MOS) 1989-2008.

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to assess the incidence of all fractures in Iceland, with emphasis on the rate of hip fractures, and compare the incidence with other populations as well as examine the secular changes.

METHODS

Individuals from the prospective population-based cohort Reykjavik Study were examined between 1967 and 2008 (follow-up 26.5 years), which consisted of 9,116 men and 9,756 women born in 1907-1935, with age range 31-81 years. First fracture incidence was estimated using life table methods with age as the timescale.

RESULTS

Fracture rate increased proportionally with age between the sexes for vertebral and proximal humerus but disproportionally for hip and distal forearm fractures. The ratio of first fracture incidence between the sexes varied considerably by site: 2.65 for hip fractures and the highest for distal forearm fractures at 4.83. By the age of 75, 36.7% of women and 21% of men had sustained a fracture, taking into account competing risk of death. The incidence of hip fractures was similar to results previously published from USA, Sweden, Norway, and Scotland. The incidence of MOS fractures in both sexes decreased over the last decade, except hip fractures in men, which remained unchanged, as reflected in the women/men ratio for the hip, which changed from 2.6 to 1.7.

CONCLUSION

This study adds information to scarce knowledge on the relative fracture incidence of different fractures. The incidence of MOS fractures increased in the latter part of the last century in both sexes and declined during the last decade, less dramatically for men. This information is important for planning health resources.

Effect of finite element model loading condition on fracture risk assessment in men and women: the AGES-Reykjavik study

Proximal femoral (hip) strength computed by subject-specific CT scan-based finite element (FE) models has been explored as an improved measure for identifying subjects at risk of hip fracture. However, to our knowledge, no published study has reported the effect of loading condition on the association between incident hip fracture and hip strength. In the present study, we performed a nested age- and sex-matched case-control study in the Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES) Reykjavik cohort. Baseline (pre-fracture) quantitative CT (QCT) scans of 5500 older male and female subjects were obtained. During 4-7years follow-up, 51 men and 77 women sustained hip fractures. Ninety-seven men and 152 women were randomly selected as controls from a pool of age- and sex-matched subjects. From the QCT data, FE models employing nonlinear material properties computed FE-strength of the left hip of each subject in loading from a fall onto the posterolateral (FPL), posterior (FP) and lateral (FL) aspects of the greater trochanter (patent pending). For comparison, FE strength in stance loading (FStance) and total femur areal bone mineral density (aBMD) were also computed. For all loading conditions, the reductions in strength associated with fracture in men were more than twice those in women (p≤0.01). For fall loading specifically, posterolateral loading in men and posterior loading in women were most strongly associated with incident hip fracture. After adjusting for aBMD, the association between FP and fracture in women fell short of statistical significance (p=0.08), indicating that FE strength provides little advantage over aBMD for identifying female hip fracture subjects. However, in men, after controlling for aBMD, FPL was 424N (11%) less in subjects with fractures than in controls (p=0.003). Thus, in men, FE models of posterolateral loading include information about incident hip fracture beyond that in aBMD.

Age-related loss of proximal femoral strength in elderly men and women: the Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility Study--Reykjavik

The risk of hip fracture rises rapidly with age, and is particularly high in women. This increase in fracture risk reflects both the age-related change in the risk of falling and decrements in the strength of the proximal femur. To better understand the extent to which proximal femoral density, structure and strength change with age as a function of gender, we have carried out a longitudinal analysis of proximal femoral volumetric quantitative computed tomographic (vQCT) images in men and women, analyzing changes in trabecular and cortical bone properties, and using subject-specific finite element modeling (FEM) to estimate changes in bone strength. In the AGES-Reykjavik Study vQCT scans of the hip were performed at a baseline visit in 2002-2006 and at a second visit 5.05±0.25 years later. From these, 223 subjects (111 men, 112 women, aged 68-87 years) were randomly selected. The subjects were evaluated for longitudinal changes in three bone variables assessed in a region similar to the total femur region quantified by DXA: areal bone mineral density (aBMD), trabecular volumetric bone mineral density (tBMD) and the ratio of cortical to total tissue volume (cvol/ivol). They were also evaluated for changes in bone strength using FEM models of the left proximal femur. Models were analyzed under single-limb stance loading (F(Stance)), which approximates normal physiologic loading of the hip, as well as a load approximating a fall onto the posterolateral aspect of the greater trochanter (F(Fall)). We computed five-year absolute and percentage changes in aBMD, tBMD, cvol/ivol, F(Fall) and F(Stance). The Mann-Whitney Test was employed to compare changes in bone variables between genders and the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test was used to compare changes in bone strength between loading conditions. Multiple (linear) regression was employed to determine the association of changes in F(Fall) and F(Stance) with baseline age and five-year weight loss. Both men and women showed declines in indices of proximal femoral density and structure (aBMD: men -3.9±6.0%, women -6.1±6.2%; tBMD: men -14.8±20.3%, women -23.9±26.8%; cvol/ivol: men -2.6±4.6%, women -4.7±4.8%, gender difference: p<0.001). Both men and women lost bone strength in each loading condition (F(Stance): men -4.2±9.9%, women -8.3±8.5%; F(Fall): men -7.0±15.7%, women -12.8±13.2%; all changes from baseline p<0.0001). The gender difference in bone strength loss was statistically significant in both loading conditions (p<0.001 for F(Stance) and P<0.01 for F(Fall)) and F(Fall) was lost at a higher rate than F(Stance) in men (p<0.01) and women (p<0.0001). The gender difference in strength loss was statistically significant after adjustment for baseline age and weight loss in both loading conditions (p<0.01). In these multi-linear models, men showed increasing rates of bone loss with increasing age (F(Fall): p=0.002; F(Stance): p=0.03), and women showed increasing bone strength loss with higher degrees of weight loss (F(Stance): p=0.003). The higher loss of F(Fall) compared to F(Stance) supports previous findings in animal and human studies that the sub-volumes of bone stressed under normal physiologic loading are relatively better protected in aging. The gender difference in hip bone strength loss is consistent with the higher incidence of hip fracture among elderly women.

Male-female differences in the association between incident hip fracture and proximal femoral strength: a finite element analysis study

Hip fracture risk is usually evaluated using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) or quantitative computed tomography (QCT) which provide surrogate measures for proximal femoral strength. However, proximal femoral strength can best be estimated explicitly by combining QCT with finite element (FE) analysis. To evaluate this technique for predicting hip fracture in older men and women, we performed a nested age- and sex-matched case-control study in the Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES) Reykjavik cohort. Baseline (pre-fracture) QCT scans of 5500 subjects were obtained. During 4-7 years follow-up, 51 men and 77 women sustained hip fractures. Ninety-seven men and 152 women were randomly selected as age- and sex-matched controls. FE-strength of the left hip of each subject for stance (F(Stance)) and posterolateral fall (F(Fall)) loading, and total femur areal bone mineral density (aBMD) were computed from the QCT data. F(Stance) and F(Fall) in incident hip fracture subjects were 13%-25% less than in control subjects (p ≤ 0.006) after controlling for demographic parameters. The difference between FE strengths of fracture and control subjects was disproportionately greater in men (stance, 22%; fall, 25%) than in women (stance, 13%; fall, 18%) (p ≤ 0.033), considering that F(Stance) and F(Fall) in fracture subjects were greater in men than in women (p < 0.001). For men, F(Stance) was associated with hip fracture after accounting for aBMD (p = 0.013). These data indicate that F(Stance) provides information about fracture risk that is beyond that provided by aBMD (p = 0.013). These findings support further exploration of possible sex differences in the predictors of hip fracture and of sex-specific strategies for using FE analysis to manage osteoporosis.

Effects of age and sex on the strength and cortical thickness of the femoral neck

A group of 48 men (22 aged 65-75 years, 26 aged 80-90 years) and 59 women (32 aged 65-75 years, 27 aged 80-90 years) were enrolled in the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik study and imaged with in vivo volumetric Quantitative Computed Tomography (QCT) to investigate the effects of age and sex on femoral neck structure and strength. Femoral neck cross-sectional moment of inertia for bending directions near those of standing and walking (I(AP)), bending strength (M(y)), and axial compressive strength (F(y)) were computed at the location of minimum cross-sectional area (minCSA). Local cortical thickness was computed in the inferior femoral neck based on density profiles extending through the cortex of the minCSA femoral neck section. Multivariate models accounting for height, weight, and age group (younger or older) showed that men had a 46% higher M(y) and a 23% higher F(y) than women, while women had a 13% thicker inferior cortex than men. Cortical thickness in the inferoposterior region of the femoral neck was significantly related to bending and axial strength after adjusting for overall volumetric bone mineral density. Both minCSA and I(AP) were higher in the older, gender-pooled age group, but F(y) and M(y) did not differ between the two age groups. The results suggest that age-related expansion of the femoral neck primarily occurs in the superior and inferior directions and helps maintain homeostasis of femoral neck stiffness and strength. The higher bending strength of the male femoral neck may partly explain why elderly men have a lower risk of hip fracture than elderly women.