Native American geography shaped historical fire frequency in forests of eighteenth-century Pennsylvania, USA

Researchers have debated the relative importance of environmental versus Indigenous effects on past fire regimes in eastern North America. Tree-ring fire-scar records (FSRs) provide local-resolution physical evidence of past fire, but few studies have spatially correlated fire frequency from FSRs with environmental and anthropogenic variables. No study has compared FSR locations to Native American settlement features in the eastern United States. We assess whether FSRs in the eastern US are located near regions of past Native American settlement. We also assess relationships between distance to Native American settlement, environmental conditions, and fire frequency in central Pennsylvania (PA), US, using an "ensemble of small models" approach for low sample sizes. Regression models of fire frequency at 21 locations in central PA often selected distance-based proxies of Indigenous land use. Models with mean annual temperature and Native American variables as predictors explained > 70% of the variation in fire frequency. Alongside temperature and wind speed, "distance to nearest trail" and "mean distance to nearest town" were significant and important predictors. In 18th-century central PA, fires were more frequent near Indigenous trails and towns, and further south due to increasing temperature and pyrophilic vegetation. However, for the entire eastern US, FSRs are located far from past settlement, limiting their effectiveness in detecting fire patterns near population centers. Improving understanding of historical fire will require developing FSRs closer to past Native American settlement.

Re-framing deer herbivory as a natural disturbance regime with ecological and socioeconomic outcomes in the eastern United States

Natural disturbances are critical ecosystem processes, with both ecological and socioeconomic benefits and disadvantages. Large herbivores are natural disturbances that have removed plant biomass for millions of years, although herbivore influence likely has declined during the past thousands of years corresponding with extinctions and declines in distributions and abundances of most animal species. Nonetheless, the conventional view, particularly in eastern North America, is that herbivory by large wild herbivores is at unprecedented levels, resulting in unnatural damage to forests. Here, we propose consideration of large herbivores as a natural disturbance that also imparts many crucial ecological advantages, using white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), the only wild large herbivore remaining throughout the eastern U.S., as our focal species. We examined evidence of detrimental effects of browsing on trees and forbs. We then considered that deer contribute to both fuel reduction and ecological restoration of herbaceous plants and historical open forests of savannas and woodlands by controlling tree and shrub densities, mimicking the consumer role of fire. Similarly to other disturbances, deer disturbance 'regimes' are uneven in severity across different ecosystems and landscapes, resulting in heterogeneity and diversity. In addition to biodiversity support and fuel reduction, socioeconomic benefits include >$20 billion dollars per year by 10 million hunters that support jobs and wildlife agencies, non-consumptive enjoyment of nature by 80 million people, cultural importance, and deer as ecological ambassadors, whereas costs include about $5 billion and up to 450 human deaths per year for motor vehicle accidents, along with crop damage and disease transmission. From a perspective of historical ecology rather than current baselines, deer impart a fundamental disturbance process with many ecological benefits and a range of socioeconomic effects.

Addressing regional relationships between white-tailed deer densities and land classes

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations have recovered to about 30 million animals in the United States, but land cover has changed during the interval of recovery. To address the relationship between deer densities and current land cover at regional scales, I applied random forests and extreme gradient boosting classifiers to model low and high deer density classes, at two different thresholds (5.8 and 11.6 deer/km2), and land classes in three regions during approximately 2003. For low and high deer density classes divided at 5.8 deer/km2, deciduous broadleaf forest overall was the most influential and positive variable in the central east and central regions and crop and pasture were the most influential and negative variables in the southeast region. Deer density increased with area of deciduous and mixed forests, woody wetlands, and shrub in all regions. Deer density decreased with area of crop, developed open space, and developed low and medium residential density in all regions. For density classes divided at 11.6 deer/km2, deer density had the strongest relationship with woody wetlands in the central east region, mixed and deciduous forest in the southeast region, and woody wetlands and herbaceous vegetation in the central region. Deer density increased with deciduous and mixed forests, woody wetlands, and shrub in all regions. Conversely, deer density decreased with herbaceous vegetation, crop, and developed low residential densities in all regions. Therefore, at regional scales, deer overall occurred at greater densities in forests and woody wetlands and lower densities in agricultural and residential development, which did not appear to support more deer. Deer preference for forests does result in damage to forest products, but alternatively, some may consider that deer provide important socioeconomic and ecological services by reducing number of small trees, particularly in the absence of other disturbances that historically controlled tree biomass.

The history of widespread decrease in oak dominance exemplified in a grassland-forest landscape

Regionally-distinctive open oak forest ecosystems have been replaced either by intensive agriculture and grazing fields or by denser forests throughout eastern North America and Europe. To quantify changes in tree communities and density in the Missouri Plains, a grassland-forest landscape, we used historical surveys from 1815 to 1864 and current surveys from 2004 to 2008. To estimate density for historical communities, we used the Morisita plotless density estimator and applied corrections for surveyor bias. To estimate density for current forests, we used Random Forests, an ensemble regression tree method, to predict densities from known values at plots using terrain and soil predictors. Oak species decreased from 62% of historical composition to 30% of current composition and black and white oaks historically were dominant species across 93% of the landscape and currently were dominant species across 42% of the landscape. Current forest density was approximately two times greater than historical densities, demonstrating loss of savanna and woodlands and transition to dense forest structure. Average tree diameters were smaller than in the past, but mean basal area and stocking remained similar over time because of the increase in density in current forests. Nevertheless, there were spatial differences; basal area and stocking decreased along rivers and increased away from rivers. Oak species are being replaced by other species in the Missouri Plains, similar to replacement throughout the range of Quercus. Long-term commitment to combinations of prescribed burning and silvicultural prescriptions in more xeric sites may be necessary for oak recruitment. Restoration of open oak ecosystems is a time-sensitive issue because restoration will become increasingly costly as oaks are lost from the overstory and the surrounding matrix becomes dominated by non-oak species.

Winning and losing tree species of reassembly in Minnesota's mixed and broadleaf forests

We examined reassembly of winning and losing tree species, species traits including shade and fire tolerance, and associated disturbance filters and forest ecosystem types due to rapid forest change in the Great Lakes region since 1850. We identified winning and losing species by changes in composition, distribution, and site factors between historical and current surveys in Minnesota’s mixed and broadleaf forests. In the Laurentian Mixed Forest, shade-intolerant aspen replaced shade-intolerant tamarack as the most dominant tree species. Fire-tolerant white pine and jack pine decreased, whereas shade-tolerant ashes, maples, and white cedar increased. In the Eastern Broadleaf Forest, fire-tolerant white oaks and red oaks decreased, while shade-tolerant ashes, American basswood, and maples increased. Tamarack, pines, and oaks have become restricted to sites with either wetter or sandier and drier soils due to increases in aspen and shade-tolerant, fire-sensitive species on mesic sites. The proportion of shade-tolerant species increased in both regions, but selective harvest reduced the applicability of functional groups alone to specify winners and losers. Harvest and existing forestry practices supported aspen dominance in mixed forests, although without aspen forestry and with fire suppression, mixed forests will transition to a greater composition of shade-tolerant species, converging to forests similar to broadleaf forests. A functional group framework provided a perspective of winning and losing species and traits, selective filters, and forest ecosystems that can be generalized to other regions, regardless of species identity.