Exploring multiple stressor effects with Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace: Research designs, modeling techniques, and future directions

Understanding the cumulative effects of multiple stressors is a research priority in environmental science. Ecological models are a key component of tackling this challenge because they can simulate interactions between the components of an ecosystem. Here, we ask, how has the popular modeling platform Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) been used to model human impacts related to climate change, land and sea use, pollution, and invasive species? We conducted a literature review encompassing 166 studies covering stressors other than fishing mostly in aquatic ecosystems. The most modeled stressors were physical climate change (60 studies), species introductions (22), habitat loss (21), and eutrophication (20), using a range of modeling techniques. Despite this comprehensive coverage, we identified four gaps that must be filled to harness the potential of EwE for studying multiple stressor effects. First, only 12% of studies investigated three or more stressors, with most studies focusing on single stressors. Furthermore, many studies modeled only one of many pathways through which each stressor is known to affect ecosystems. Second, various methods have been applied to define environmental response functions representing the effects of single stressors on species groups. These functions can have a large effect on the simulated ecological changes, but best practices for deriving them are yet to emerge. Third, human dimensions of environmental change - except for fisheries - were rarely considered. Fourth, only 3% of studies used statistical research designs that allow attribution of simulated ecosystem changes to stressors' direct effects and interactions, such as factorial (computational) experiments. None made full use of the statistical possibilities that arise when simulations can be repeated many times with controlled changes to the inputs. We argue that all four gaps are feasibly filled by integrating ecological modeling with advances in other subfields of environmental science and in computational statistics.

Cost-effectiveness of outpatient parenteral antibiotic therapy: a simulation modelling approach

Objectives

In the UK, patients who require intravenous antimicrobial (IVA) treatment may receive this in the community through outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) services. Services include: IVA administration at a hospital outpatient clinic (HO); IVA administration at home by a general nurse (GN) or a specialist nurse (SN); or patient self-administered (SA) IVA administration following training. There is uncertainty regarding which OPAT services represent value for money; this study aimed to estimate their cost-effectiveness.

Methods

A cost-effectiveness decision-analytic model was developed using a simulation technique utilizing data from hospital records and a systematic review of the literature. The model estimates cost per QALY gained from the National Health Service (NHS) perspective for short- and long-term treatment of infections and service combinations across these.

Results

In short-term treatments, HO was estimated as the most effective (0.7239 QALYs), but at the highest cost (£973). SN was the least costly (£710), producing 0.7228 QALYs. The combination between SN and HO was estimated to produce 0.7235 QALYs at a cost of £841. For long-term treatments, SN was the most effective (0.677 QALYs), costing £2379, while SA was the least costly at £1883, producing 0.666 QALYs. A combination of SA and SN was estimated to produce 0.672 QALYs at a cost of £2128.

Conclusions

SN and SA are cost-effective for short- and long-term treatment of infections, while combining services may represent the second-best alternative for OPAT in the UK.

Clinical and cost-effectiveness, safety and acceptability of community intravenous antibiotic service models: CIVAS systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate evidence of the efficacy, safety, acceptability and cost-effectiveness of outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) models.

DESIGN

A systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, National Health Service (NHS) Economic Evaluation Database (EED), Research Papers in Economics (RePEc), Tufts Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) Registry, Health Business Elite, Health Information Management Consortium (HMIC), Web of Science Proceedings, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy website. Searches were undertaken from 1993 to 2015.

STUDY SELECTION

All studies, except case reports, considering adult patients or practitioners involved in the delivery of OPAT were included. Studies combining outcomes for adults and children or non-intravenous (IV) and IV antibiotic groups were excluded, as were those focused on process of delivery or clinical effectiveness of 1 antibiotic over another. Titles/abstracts were screened by 1 reviewer (20% verified). 2 authors independently screened studies for inclusion.

RESULTS

128 studies involving >60 000 OPAT episodes were included. 22 studies (17%) did not indicate the OPAT model used; only 29 involved a comparator (23%). There was little difference in duration of OPAT treatment compared with inpatient therapy, and overall OPAT appeared to produce superior cure/improvement rates. However, when models were considered individually, outpatient delivery appeared to be less effective, and self-administration and specialist nurse delivery more effective. Drug side effects, deaths and hospital readmissions were similar to those for inpatient treatment, but there were more line-related complications. Patient satisfaction was high, with advantages seen in being able to resume daily activities and having greater freedom and control. However, most professionals perceived challenges in providing OPAT.

CONCLUSIONS

There were no systematic differences related to the impact of OPAT on treatment duration or adverse events. However, evidence of its clinical benefit compared with traditional inpatient treatment is lacking, primarily due to the dearth of good quality comparative studies. There was high patient satisfaction with OPAT use but the few studies considering practitioner acceptability highlighted organisational and logistic barriers to its delivery.

Community IntraVenous Antibiotic Study (CIVAS): protocol for an evaluation of patient preferences for and cost-effectiveness of community intravenous antibiotic services

INTRODUCTION

Outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) is used to treat a wide range of infections, and is common practice in countries such as the USA and Australia. In the UK, national guidelines (standards of care) for OPAT services have been developed to act as a benchmark for clinical monitoring and quality. However, the availability of OPAT services in the UK is still patchy and until quite recently was available only in specialist centres. Over time, National Health Service (NHS) Trusts have developed OPAT services in response to local needs, which has resulted in different service configurations and models of care. However, there has been no robust examination comparing the cost-effectiveness of each service type, or any systematic examination of patient preferences for services on which to base any business case decision.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The study will use a mixed methods approach, to evaluate patient preferences for and the cost-effectiveness of OPAT service models. The study includes seven NHS Trusts located in four counties. There are five inter-related work packages: a systematic review of the published research on the safety, efficacy and cost-effectiveness of intravenous antibiotic delivery services; a qualitative study to explore existing OPAT services and perceived barriers to future development; an economic model to estimate the comparative value of four different community intravenous antibiotic services; a discrete choice experiment to assess patient preferences for services, and an expert panel to agree which service models may constitute the optimal service model(s) of community intravenous antibiotics delivery.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been approved by the NRES Committee, South West-Frenchay using the Proportionate Review Service (ref 13/SW/0060). The results of the study will be disseminated at national and international conferences, and in international journals.

Effect of pulse repetition rate on the perception of thermal sensation with pulsed shortwave diathermy

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Pulsed shortwave diathermy (PSWD) is a form of therapy commonly used to enhance tissue repair and reduce pain. It is normally considered to be an athermal form of treatment; however, there is some evidence to suggest that thermal effects can arise with adequate dosage. The purpose of this study was to determine the pulse repetition rate (PRR) required to generate a 'possible' and 'definite' thermal sensation when PSWD was applied to the thigh.

METHOD

Thirty healthy subjects were randomly assigned to placebo or treatment groups. The treatment group was exposed to PSWD at a constant setting of pulse duration (400 microseconds) and pulse power (190 W) while the PRR was increased from 26 Hz to 400 Hz in 10 increments. Each dose was applied for a period of two minutes. At the end of each application, subjects were asked if they felt a (1) 'possible' or (2) 'definite' thermal sensation. Skin temperature was measured immediately after each application. Placebo subjects were exposed to PSWD at its lowest settings throughout the experiment (pulse power = 5 W; pulse duration = 65 microseconds and PRR = 26 Hz).

RESULTS

The results showed a significant correlation (p < 0.048) between PRR at 'definite' thermal sensation and skin temperature post-treatment and PRR at 'possible' thermal sensation (p < 0.001). Mean skin temperature increased significantly as PRR was increased, from 28.69 (+/- 0.75) degrees C pre-treatment to 31.14 (+/- 1.04) degrees C post-treatment, a mean difference of 2.34 degrees C.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that PSWD at adequate dosages can generate thermal effects, and that there is a relationship between these thermal effects and the PRR used. These results may have significant implications for the safe use of PSWD in the clinical arena.

Effects of war trauma on Cambodian refugee adolescents' functional health and mental health status

OBJECTIVE

To measure the effect of war trauma on the functional health and mental health status of Cambodian adolescents living in a refugee camp on the Thai-Cambodian border.

METHOD

A multistage probability sample identified 1,000 households in the camp known as Site Two. Interviews were conducted in each household with randomly selected adults 18 years of age and older. All adolescents aged 12 and 13 years old, along with one parent were interviewed. One hundred eighty-two adolescents (94 girls, 88 boys) and their parents participated. Culturally sensitive instruments were used including Cambodian versions of the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) and the Youth Self-Report (YSR).

RESULTS

Parents and adolescents reported the latter having experienced high levels of cumulative trauma, especially lack of food, water, and shelter. Mean Total Problem scores were in ranges similar to those of adolescents receiving clinical care in the United States, Netherlands, and Israel. Nearly 54% (53.8%) had Total Problem scores in the clinical range by parent report on the CBCL and 26.4% by adolescent report on the YSR. The most commonly reported symptoms were somatic complaints social withdrawal attention problems, anxiety, and depression. The dose-effect relationship between cumulative trauma and symptoms was strong for parent reporting on the CBCL; the subscales on both the YSR and CBCL for Anxious/Depressed and Attention Problems revealed dose-effect associations. Dose-effect relationships between cumulative trauma and social functioning or health status were lacking.

CONCLUSION

The high levels of emotional distress in this population of Cambodian adolescents and corresponding dose-effect relationships reveal the important negative psychosocial impact of violence on Cambodian adolescents. Lack of findings related to physical health status and the presence of positive social functioning of many youths should not deter health care providers and public health officials from diagnosing and treating underlying high levels of psychological distress.