Contour prognostic model for predicting survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases: development and multicentre validation study using largest diameter and number of metastases with RAS mutation status

BACKGROUND

Most current models for predicting survival after resection of colorectal liver metastasis include largest diameter and number of colorectal liver metastases as dichotomous variables, resulting in underestimation of the extent of risk variation and substantial loss of statistical power. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a new prognostic model for patients undergoing liver resection including largest diameter and number of colorectal liver metastases as continuous variables.

METHODS

A prognostic model was developed using data from patients who underwent liver resection for colorectal liver metastases at MD Anderson Cancer Center and had RAS mutational data. A Cox proportional hazards model analysis was used to develop a model based on largest colorectal liver metastasis diameter and number of metastases as continuous variables. The model results were shown using contour plots, and validated externally in an international multi-institutional cohort.

RESULTS

A total of 810 patients met the inclusion criteria. Largest colorectal liver metastasis diameter (hazard ratio (HR) 1.11, 95 per cent confidence interval 1.06 to 1.16; P < 0.001), number of colorectal liver metastases (HR 1.06, 1.03 to 1.09; P < 0.001), and RAS mutation status (HR 1.76, 1.42 to 2.18; P < 0.001) were significantly associated with overall survival, together with age, primary lymph node metastasis, and prehepatectomy chemotherapy. The model performed well in the external validation cohort, with predicted overall survival values almost lying within 10 per cent of observed values. Wild-type RAS was associated with better overall survival than RAS mutation even when liver resection was performed for larger and/or multiple colorectal liver metastases.

CONCLUSION

The contour prognostic model, based on diameter and number of lesions considered as continuous variables along with RAS mutation, predicts overall survival after resection of colorectal liver metastasis.

Comparison of oncological outcomes after open and laparoscopic re-resection of incidental gallbladder cancer

BACKGROUND

The safety and oncological efficacy of laparoscopic re-resection of incidental gallbladder cancer have not been studied. This study aimed to compare laparoscopic with open re-resection of incidentally discovered gallbladder cancer while minimizing selection bias.

METHODS

This was a multicentre retrospective observational cohort study of patients with incidental gallbladder cancer who underwent re-resection with curative intent at four centres between 2000 and 2017. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were analysed by intention to treat. Inverse probability of surgery treatment weighting using propensity scoring was undertaken.

RESULTS

A total of 255 patients underwent re-resection (190 open, 65 laparoscopic). Nineteen laparoscopic procedures were converted to open operation. Surgery before 2011 was the only factor associated with conversion. Duration of hospital stay was shorter after laparoscopic re-resection (median 4 versus 6 days; P < 0·001). Three-year OS rates for laparoscopic and open re-resection were 87 and 62 per cent respectively (P = 0·502). Independent predictors of worse OS were residual cancer found at re-resection (hazard ratio (HR) 1·91, 95 per cent c.i. 1·17 to 3·11), blood loss of at least 500 ml (HR 1·83, 1·23 to 2·74) and at least four positive nodes (HR 3·11, 1·46 to 6·65). In competing-risks analysis, the RFS incidence was higher for laparoscopic re-resection (P = 0·038), but OS did not differ between groups. Independent predictors of worse RFS were one to three positive nodes (HR 2·16, 1·29 to 3·60), at least four positive nodes (HR 4·39, 1·96 to 9·82) and residual cancer (HR 2·42, 1·46 to 4·00).

CONCLUSION

Laparoscopic re-resection for selected patients with incidental gallbladder cancer is oncologically non-inferior to an open approach. Dissemination of advanced laparoscopic skills and timely referral of patients with incidental gallbladder cancer to specialized centres may allow more patients to benefit from this operation.

Performance of a modified three-level classification in stratifying open liver resection procedures in terms of complexity and postoperative morbidity

BACKGROUND

Traditional classifications for open liver resection are not always associated with surgical complexity and postoperative morbidity. The aim of this study was to test whether a three-level classification for stratifying surgical complexity based on surgical and postoperative outcomes, originally devised for laparoscopic liver resection, is superior to classifications based on a previously reported survey for stratifying surgical complexity of open liver resections, minor/major nomenclature or number of resected segments.

METHODS

Patients undergoing a first open liver resection without simultaneous procedures at MD Anderson Cancer Center (Houston cohort) or the University of Tokyo (Tokyo cohort) were studied. Surgical and postoperative outcomes were compared among three grades: I (wedge resection for anterolateral or posterosuperior segment and left lateral sectionectomy); II (anterolateral segmentectomy and left hepatectomy); III (posterosuperior segmentectomy, right posterior sectionectomy, right hepatectomy, central hepatectomy and extended left/right hepatectomy).

RESULTS

In both the Houston (1878 patients) and Tokyo (1202) cohorts, duration of operation, estimated blood loss and comprehensive complication index score differed between the three grades (all P < 0·050) and increased in stepwise fashion from grades I to III (all P < 0·001). Left hepatectomy was associated with better surgical and postoperative outcomes than right hepatectomy, extended right hepatectomy and right posterior sectionectomy, although these four procedures were categorized as being of medium complexity in the survey-based classification. Surgical outcomes of minor open liver resections also differed between the three grades (all P < 0·050). For duration of operation and blood loss, the area under the curve was higher for the three-level classification than for the minor/major or segment-based classification.

CONCLUSION

The three-level classification may be useful in studies analysing open liver resection at Western and Eastern centres.

Prognostic impact of perihepatic lymph node metastases in patients with resectable colorectal liver metastases

BACKGROUND

Although perihepatic lymph node metastases (PLNMs) are known to be a poor prognosticator for patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLMs), optimal management remains unclear. This study aimed to determine the risk factors for PLNMs, and the survival impact of their number and location in patients with resectable CRLMs.

METHODS

Data on patients with CRLM who underwent hepatectomy during 2003-2014 were analysed retrospectively. Recurrence-free (RFS) and overall (OS) survival were calculated according to presence, number and location of PLNMs. Risk factors for PLNM were evaluated by logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of 1485 patients, 174 underwent lymphadenectomy, and 54 (31·0 per cent) had PLNM. Ten patients (5·7 per cent) who had lymphadenectomy and 176 (13·4 per cent) who did not underwent repeat hepatectomy. Survival of patients with PLNM was significantly poorer than that of patients without (RFS: 5·3 versus 13·8 months, P < 0·001; OS: 20·5 versus 71·3 months; P < 0·001). Median OS was significantly better in patients with para-aortic versus hepatoduodenal ligament PLNMs (58·2 versus 15·5 months; P = 0·011). Patients with three or more PLNMs had significantly worse median OS than those with one or two (16·3 versus 25·4 months; P = 0·039). The presence of primary tumour lymph node metastases (odds ratio 2·35; P = 0·037) and intrahepatic recurrence requiring repeat hepatectomy (odds ratio 5·61; P = 0·012) were significant risk factors for PLNM on multivariable analysis.

CONCLUSION

Patients undergoing repeat hepatectomy and those with primary tumour lymph node metastases are at significant risk of PLNM. Although PLNM is a poor prognostic factor independent of perihepatic lymph node station, patients with one or two PLNMs have a more favourable outcome than those with more PLNMs.

Portal vein embolization improves rate of resection of extensive colorectal liver metastases without worsening survival

BACKGROUND

Most patients requiring an extended right hepatectomy (ERH) have an inadequate standardized future liver remnant (sFLR) and need preoperative portal vein embolization (PVE). However, the clinical and oncological impact of PVE in such patients remains unclear.

METHODS

All consecutive patients presenting at the M. D. Anderson Cancer Center with colorectal liver metastases (CLM) requiring ERH at presentation from 1995 to 2012 were studied. Surgical and oncological outcomes were compared between patients with adequate and inadequate sFLRs at presentation.

RESULTS

Of the 265 patients requiring ERH, 126 (47·5 per cent) had an adequate sFLR at presentation, of whom 123 underwent a curative resection. Of the 139 patients (52·5 per cent) who had an inadequate sFLR and underwent PVE, 87 (62·6 per cent) had a curative resection. Thus, the curative resection rate was increased from 46·4 per cent (123 of 265) at baseline to 79·2 per cent (210 of 265) following PVE. Among patients who underwent ERH, major complication and 90-day mortality rates were similar in the no-PVE and PVE groups (22·0 and 4·1 per cent versus 31 and 7 per cent respectively); overall and disease-free survival rates were also similar in these two groups. Of patients with an inadequate sFLR at presentation, those who underwent ERH had a significantly better median overall survival (50·2 months) than patients who had non-curative surgery (21·3 months) or did not undergo surgery (24·7 months) (P = 0·002).

CONCLUSION

PVE enabled curative resection in two-thirds of patients with CLM who had an inadequate sFLR and were unable to tolerate ERH at presentation. Patients who underwent curative resection after PVE had overall and disease-free survival rates equivalent to those of patients who did not need PVE.