Fluctuating selection and global change: a synthesis and review on disentangling the roles of climate amplitude, predictability and novelty

A formidable challenge for global change biologists is to predict how natural populations will respond to the emergence of conditions not observed at present, termed novel climates. Popular approaches to predict population vulnerability are based on the expected degree of novelty relative to the amplitude of historical climate fluctuations experienced by a population. Here, we argue that predictions focused on amplitude may be inaccurate because they ignore the predictability of environmental fluctuations in driving patterns of evolution and responses to climate change. To address this disconnect, we review major findings of evolutionary theory demonstrating the conditions under which phenotypic plasticity is likely to evolve in natural populations, and how plasticity decreases population vulnerability to novel environments. We outline key criteria that experimental studies should aim for to effectively test theoretical predictions, while controlling for the degree of climate novelty. We show that such targeted tests of evolutionary theory are rare, with marine systems being overall underrepresented in this venture despite exhibiting unique opportunities to test theory. We conclude that with more robust experimental designs that manipulate both the amplitude and predictability of fluctuations, while controlling for the degree of novelty, we may better predict population vulnerability to climate change.

Diagnostic gene expression biomarkers of coral thermal stress

Gene expression biomarkers can enable rapid assessment of physiological conditions in situ, providing a valuable tool for reef managers interested in linking organism physiology with large-scale climatic conditions. Here, we assessed the ability of quantitative PCR (qPCR)-based gene expression biomarkers to evaluate (i) the immediate cellular stress response (CSR) of Porites astreoides to incremental thermal stress and (ii) the magnitude of CSR and cellular homeostasis response (CHR) during a natural bleaching event. Expression levels largely scaled with treatment temperature, with the strongest responses occurring in heat-shock proteins. This is the first demonstration of a 'tiered' CSR in a coral, where the magnitude of expression change is proportional to stress intensity. Analysis of a natural bleaching event revealed no signature of an acute CSR in normal or bleached corals, indicating that the bleaching stressor(s) had abated by the day of sampling. Another long-term stress CHR-based indicator assay was significantly elevated in bleached corals, although assay values overall were low, suggesting good prospects for recovery. This study represents the first step in linking variation in gene expression biomarkers to stress tolerance and bleaching thresholds in situ by quantifying the severity of ongoing thermal stress and its accumulated long-term impacts.

Evidence for a host role in thermotolerance divergence between populations of the mustard hill coral (Porites astreoides) from different reef environments

Studying the mechanisms that enable coral populations to inhabit spatially varying thermal environments can help evaluate how they will respond in time to the effects of global climate change and elucidate the evolutionary forces that enable or constrain adaptation. Inshore reefs in the Florida Keys experience higher temperatures than offshore reefs for prolonged periods during the summer. We conducted a common garden experiment with heat stress as our selective agent to test for local thermal adaptation in corals from inshore and offshore reefs. We show that inshore corals are more tolerant of a 6-week temperature stress than offshore corals. Compared with inshore corals, offshore corals in the 31 °C treatment showed significantly elevated bleaching levels concomitant with a tendency towards reduced growth. In addition, dinoflagellate symbionts (Symbiodinium sp.) of offshore corals exhibited reduced photosynthetic efficiency. We did not detect differences in the frequencies of major (>5%) haplotypes comprising Symbiodinium communities hosted by inshore and offshore corals, nor did we observe frequency shifts ('shuffling') in response to thermal stress. Instead, coral host populations showed significant genetic divergence between inshore and offshore reefs, suggesting that in Porites astreoides, the coral host might play a prominent role in holobiont thermotolerance. Our results demonstrate that coral populations inhabiting reefs <10-km apart can exhibit substantial differences in their physiological response to thermal stress, which could impact their population dynamics under climate change.

Fluorescence of coral larvae predicts their settlement response to crustose coralline algae and reflects stress

Multi-coloured homologues of the green fluorescent protein generate some of the most striking visual phenomena in the ocean. Despite their natural prominence in reef-building corals and widespread use in biotechnology, their biological role remains obscure. Here, we experimented with larvae of Acropora millepora to determine what can be learned about a coral larva or recruit from its fluorescent colour. We performed 12 crosses between seven A. millepora colonies representing differing fluorescence phenotypes, the larvae of which were exposed to a natural settlement cue (crustose coralline algae) and heat-light stress. Parental effects explained 18 per cent of variation in colour and 47 per cent of variation in settlement. The colour of the larval family emerged as a predictor of the settlement success: redder families were significantly less responsive to the provided settlement cue (p = 0.006). This relationship was owing to a correlation between parental effects on settlement and colour (r(2) = 0.587, p = 0.045). We also observed pronounced (16%) decline in settlement rate, as well as subtle (2%), but a statistically significant decrease in red fluorescence, as a consequence of heat-light stress exposure. Variation in settlement propensity in A. millepora is largely owing to additive genetic effects, and is thought to reflect variation in dispersal potential. Our results suggest an optical signature to discriminate between long- and short-range dispersing genotypes, as well as to evaluate stress. Further research in this direction may lead to the development of field applications to trace changes in coral life history and physiology caused by global warming.